Core Viewpoint - The conference "New Pattern · New Hub" highlighted the role of Hainan Free Trade Port in enhancing global supply chain construction, with China Galaxy Securities positioning itself as a key strategic partner in this initiative [1][2]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference was the first of its kind focused on global supply chain construction since the full closure of Hainan Free Trade Port, aiming to gather consensus and outline a new blueprint for global supply chain key hubs [1]. - The event was hosted by the Hainan Provincial Financial Office and organized by China Galaxy Securities, emphasizing the importance of Hainan's unique geographical and institutional advantages in the new global economic landscape [1][2]. Group 2: Company Achievements and Initiatives - China Galaxy Securities has made significant progress in five areas to support the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port: platform building, fund investment, investment banking services, green development, and international expansion [2][3]. - The company has established a total scale of 10 billion yuan for a mother fund aimed at Hainan Free Trade Port construction, with sub-funds reaching a cumulative scale of 20.9 billion yuan, and recently approved to expand the mother fund to 20 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company has assisted the Hainan provincial government in issuing a total of 13 billion yuan in offshore RMB local government bonds and has provided comprehensive financial services to key state-owned enterprises in Hainan [3]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Future Plans - Hainan's geographical position as a hub between China and Southeast Asia is increasingly significant, with China Galaxy Securities leveraging its resources to build a solid bridge between Hainan and ASEAN capital markets [4][5]. - The company has launched the "Galaxy Starry Entrepreneur Office" platform to provide integrated services for enterprises, including market value management and cross-border merger consulting, aiming to become a crucial bridge for high-growth Chinese enterprises and global capital [5]. - China Galaxy Securities is committed to supporting national strategies and aims to create a comprehensive financial service ecosystem to enhance Hainan's role as an important gateway for international trade [6][7]. Group 4: Ecosystem Development - The conference also marked the establishment of the "Hainan Free Trade Port High-Quality Service Platform for Enterprises Going Abroad," which integrates top institutions to create a comprehensive service system for global supply chains [6]. - The initiative received support from leading enterprises, showcasing a strong consensus among industry leaders to use Hainan as a strategic base for global operations [6]. - China Galaxy Securities plays a pivotal role in this ecosystem, facilitating the development of a safe and efficient cross-border investment service environment [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The OECD has released an 88-page "Parallel Arrangement" plan under the BEPS global minimum tax reform framework, aimed at optimizing rule implementation and reducing compliance burdens while addressing international concerns about the applicability and practicality of the rules [1]. Summary by Sections Key Mechanisms - The "Parallel Arrangement" includes several key mechanisms, primarily focusing on the SbS Safe Harbour, which aims to prevent multinational groups with ultimate parent companies in qualifying jurisdictions from being subject to IIR or UTPR [2][5]. - A jurisdiction must meet four conditions to be recognized as having a "qualifying SbS system," including a domestic tax system with a nominal tax rate of at least 20% and a CAMT rate of 15% or higher, or having implemented QDMTT [3][6]. Evaluation and Compliance - The Inclusive Framework will assess existing tax policies that have been enacted and effective by December 31, 2025, against the qualifying standards set by the SbS Safe Harbour in the first half of 2026 [4]. - Currently, only the United States has publicly indicated that its tax system may qualify for the SbS Safe Harbour mechanism, with limited benefits expected for other jurisdictions [5]. New Safe Harbours - The UPE Safe Harbour will replace the existing UTPR Safe Harbour for fiscal years starting on or after January 1, 2026, allowing jurisdictions that meet the qualifying domestic tax system conditions to have a zero UTPR tax liability [7][8]. - The SESH is introduced as a simplified mechanism for compliance, applicable from fiscal years starting on or after December 31, 2026, allowing jurisdictions to opt for early adoption under certain conditions [9][10]. Substance-based Tax Incentive Safe Harbour - The SBTI Safe Harbour allows certain qualifying tax incentives to be included in the "Qualified Tax Incentive" category, which can enhance the overall effective tax rate of a jurisdiction, potentially exempting it from supplementary tax obligations [11][12]. - A cap on adjustments based on substance is set, limiting the adjustable amount to 5.5% of qualified wage costs or depreciation expenses, or 1% of the book value of qualified tangible assets [12]. Overall Implications - The release of the "Parallel Arrangement" signifies a transition from the initial implementation phase of Pillar Two rules to a more refined and regular adjustment phase, reflecting the OECD's response to the business community's demands for compliance feasibility and certainty [14]. - Companies are advised to conduct a comprehensive review of existing tax incentive policies, track legislative developments, and update tax burden forecasts for 2026 and beyond, considering the implications of the new mechanisms [19].

Rogers是美国共同基金管理行业的资深基金管理人士，他表示，过去三年期间美国股市持续上演的两位 数级别牛市增长轨迹是"极不寻常的"，并且他强调这种牛市曲线愈发与美国经济现实脱节。他补充表 示，由于围绕人工智能的前所未有投资热潮，美国股市已经不再能够代表真实经济，这让他对股市过度 集中在占据高额权重的英伟达、微软以及谷歌等大型科技股上感到非常担忧。 （原标题：?美国股市与现实脱节? "斩杀线"热议下，这位投资大佬押注预判2026年道琼斯指数下行 20%） 智通财经APP获悉，根据Ariel Investments的董事长兼联合首席执行官John Rogers的最新预测，美国经济 可能会在年底之前陷入小规模经济衰退，美国股市也会下跌，他预计道琼斯指数可能大幅回调20%接近 熊市区域，主要因为美国普通收入消费者将在高昂的生活成本面前感到压力。 在华尔街金融巨头们普遍非常看涨美股市场2026年走势之际，美国资深基金经理Rogers的预测可谓显得 另类，尤其是高盛、摩根士丹利以及摩根大通等华尔街巨头在2026年更加看好偏向周期与蓝筹属性的道 琼斯指数。 Rogers在芝加哥首席执行官俱乐部年会的展望活动上表示，道琼斯 ...

Core Viewpoint - John Rogers predicts a potential small-scale recession in the U.S. economy by the end of the year, with a significant decline in the stock market, particularly a 20% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, due to pressure on ordinary consumers from high living costs [1][2][4] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Rogers emphasizes that while wealthy consumers are thriving, ordinary Americans are struggling to manage high expenses, which could lead to a decrease in overall market demand and trigger an economic slowdown or recession [4][5] - The concept of "kill line" reflects the financial vulnerability of ordinary households, indicating that when income and assets fall below a certain level, they may face irreversible economic hardship [3][4] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Rogers' bearish outlook contrasts sharply with the generally optimistic sentiment among Wall Street strategists, who expect continued growth in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices through 2026 [5][6] - Despite the prevailing bullish sentiment, Rogers warns that the market may be underestimating the pressures faced by ordinary consumers and the potential negative impacts of long-term debt and interest rate paths on the economy [6] Group 3: Predictions from Other Economists - Diane Swonk from KPMG forecasts three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, predicting a significant drop in the Dow Jones to 43,000 points, while suggesting that the U.S. will avoid a recession [7] - Rogers remains optimistic about small-cap stocks, identifying companies like Smucker as potentially strong performers during economic downturns [7]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The Hong Kong stock market is set to welcome 117 new listings in 2025, with a total of 114 IPOs and 1 introduction listing, indicating a robust IPO environment despite fluctuations in previous periods. Group 1: New Listings and IPO Statistics - In 2025, the Hong Kong stock market will see 117 new companies listed, including 114 IPOs and 1 introduction listing [1] - Over the past 24 months, there have been 187 new listings, with 184 being IPOs, while the past 36 months saw a total of 260 new listings, with 252 IPOs [1][2] - The leading IPO underwriter in 2025 is CICC, with 41 projects, followed by CITIC Securities with 32 projects [5][12] Group 2: Underwriter Performance - CICC has maintained its position as the top underwriter for IPOs, accounting for 36% of the total projects in 2025 [5] - In the past 24 months, CICC also led with 60 projects, representing 33% of the total [8] - Over the last 36 months, CICC again topped the list with 81 projects, making up 32% of the total [10] Group 3: Fundraising Scale - The total fundraising amount from the 114 IPOs in 2025 is approximately HKD 2,606.7 billion [12] - CICC leads in fundraising with HKD 1,320.0 billion, followed by CITIC Securities with HKD 745.7 billion [13] Group 4: Legal and Audit Services - Ernst & Young is the leading auditor for IPOs in 2025, involved in 41 projects, which is 36% of the total [16] - The top mainland law firm for IPOs in 2025 is Jingtian Gongcheng, providing services for 47 projects, accounting for 41% [21] - The leading overseas law firm is Kirkland & Ellis, involved in 23 projects, representing 20% of the total [30] Group 5: Industry Advisors - Frosst & Sullivan is the top industry advisor for IPOs in 2025, participating in 82 projects, which is 73% of the total [42] - Over the past 24 months, Frosst & Sullivan also led with 125 projects, making up 68% [42]

本报讯 （记者闫立良）1月9日，由雄安新区商务和投资促进局、雄安新区改革发展局、中国人民银行 雄安新区分行以及中国雄安集团城市发展公司支持，毕马威主办的"中国雄安金融科技产业促进活动 毕马威通过连续十年的榜单发布与趋势洞察，为金融科技如何更好服务实体经济、推动高质量发展提供 了有益思考与路径参考。未来，金融科技企业将紧扣国家发展脉搏，在赋能科技创新、提升金融服务可 得性、筑牢金融安全防线等方面持续书写新篇章。 ——毕马威金融科技企业双50榜单发布会"在雄安新区举行。本次活动不仅揭晓了"2025年度第十届毕马 威金融科技企业双50"榜单，还同步发布了金融科技"双50"十周年报告，来自政府机构、金融科技企 业、投资机构及学术界的代表嘉宾齐聚一堂，共同探讨金融科技赋能实体经济的未来路径。 毕马威中国客户及业务发展主管合伙人江立勤指出，金融科技作为连接金融与产业生态的核心纽带，已 从经营管理、业务创新、风险防范等环节为金融业提供新价值锚点，并通过耐心资本与科技创新的深度 融合，助力构建"科技-产业-金融"良性循环，进一步强化金融回归本源、服务实体经济的战略定位。 自毕马威首届"金融科技50"榜单发布以来，中国金融科技 ...

毕马威中国金融科技主管合伙人黄艾舟指出，复盘过去十年国内金融科技企业的发展脉络，地域分布上 呈现京、沪、深领跑的第一梯队格局，长三角、粤港澳和京津冀三大城市群发展格局强化；技术要素层 面，人工智能持续领跑，细分技术应用协同深化；细分赛道中，AI与大数据、数智赋能赛道近五年快 速增长，赛道分布趋多元化布局方向。 毕马威中国客户及业务发展主管合伙人江立勤指出，金融科技作为连接金融与产业生态的核心纽带，正 通过AI、区块链、量子计算等前沿技术的深度介入，重塑金融服务模式，推动金融资源更精准、高效 地注入科技创新领域。他指出，金融科技已从经营管理、业务创新、风险防范等环节为金融业提供新价 值锚点，并通过耐心资本与科技创新的深度融合，助力构建"科技-产业-金融"良性循环，进一步强化金 融回归本源、服务实体的战略定位。 北京商报讯（记者 马换换 李佳雪）1月9日，毕马威发布金融科技"双50"十周年报告，同时揭晓了"2025 年度第十届毕马威金融科技企业双50"榜单。 展望行业长期发展，黄艾舟提出三大核心趋势：其一，以支持科技创新和产业发展为导向，金融科技赋 能金融服务向科技企业全生命周期渗透；其二，金融业大模型应用建设渐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. labor market is characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," indicating a new normal rather than a temporary fluctuation, with economic growth strong but employment data stagnating [2][5]. Group 1: Employment Market Analysis - The U.S. employment market is experiencing its weakest performance since 2011, with an average of only 17,000 new jobs added monthly over the past six months, the lowest since the global financial crisis [2]. - The private sector has seen a slightly better performance, averaging 44,000 new jobs monthly, but this is still at a decade-low level [2]. - The U6 unemployment rate has risen to 8.7%, and the number of job openings per unemployed person has dropped to 1.0, both reaching their lowest levels since 2017 [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Consumer Behavior - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate reached 4.3% in the third quarter, driven by a surge in consumer spending and a $166 billion increase in corporate profits [6]. - However, real disposable income for households has stagnated, indicating that consumer spending is being maintained through savings depletion, borrowing, and cutbacks in spending [6]. Group 3: K-Shaped Recovery - The U.S. economy is entering a K-shaped growth phase, where affluent households benefit from stock market gains and property appreciation, while lower-income families face affordability pressures and stagnant real incomes [6]. - Companies are finding ways to grow without hiring more staff, focusing on productivity improvements rather than expanding their workforce [7]. Group 4: Long-term Labor Market Trends - Goldman Sachs warns of a "no job growth" scenario, where despite rising output, most industries, except healthcare, are experiencing stagnant or negative job growth [7][10]. - The impact of artificial intelligence on labor demand is expected to create long-term headwinds for job growth, as companies increasingly focus on reducing labor costs [7][10]. - The demographic shift, including declining birth rates and an aging population, is expected to limit labor supply contributions to economic growth [8].

Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for China in 2025 is expected to show steady progress, with a focus on high-quality development and structural optimization, as indicated by the Chief Economist Confidence Index of 50.32 for January 2026, reflecting a recovery from the previous month [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The average forecast for December 2025 CPI year-on-year growth is 0.8%, slightly higher than the previous month's 0.7% [8][10]. - The average forecast for December 2025 PPI year-on-year growth is -2.0%, an improvement from -2.2% in the previous month [8][10]. - The average forecast for December 2025 industrial added value year-on-year growth is 4.9%, up from 4.8% in November [13]. - The average forecast for December 2025 fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is -2.2%, an improvement from -2.6% in November [14]. - The average forecast for December 2025 social retail sales year-on-year growth is 1.8%, with a range from 0.6% to 4.9% [10][11]. - The average forecast for December 2025 trade surplus is $1113.5 billion, slightly lower than the previous month's $1116.8 billion [17]. - The average forecast for December 2025 new loans is 7182.5 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month's 3900 billion yuan [19]. - The average forecast for December 2025 total social financing is 1.8 trillion yuan, down from 2.5 trillion yuan in November [21]. - The average forecast for December 2025 M2 year-on-year growth is 8%, consistent with the previous month's figure [21][23]. - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves are expected to be $33579 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [23]. Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with an increase in fiscal deficit and government debt issuance to support economic growth [25][27]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to ensure liquidity and lower financing costs [26][27].

Economic Outlook - The global economy in 2026 is expected to exhibit a complex system characterized by non-linearity, path dependence, and adaptability, showing high instability but resilience [1] - The "First Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index" for January 2026 is reported at 50.32, indicating a recovery and maintaining a prosperous state [2][3] Inflation and Price Predictions - The average predicted year-on-year CPI growth for December 2025 is 0.8%, while the PPI is forecasted at -2% [5][6] - CPI predictions range from a minimum of 0.5% to a maximum of 0.9%, indicating a slight increase from November's 0.7% [6] - The PPI predictions range from -2.3% to -1.9%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's -2.2% [6] Industrial and Investment Growth - The predicted growth rate for industrial added value in December 2025 is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's 4.8% [9][10] - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by an average of -2.2%, showing a recovery from November's -2.6% [11] - Real estate development investment is forecasted to decrease by -15.8%, with signs of a narrowing decline in transaction volumes [12] Trade and Export Forecasts - The trade surplus for December 2025 is predicted to be $1113.5 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous month [13][14] - Exports are expected to grow by 2.5%, down from 5.9% in the previous month, while imports are forecasted to increase by 0.7% [14][15] Financing and Monetary Policy - New loans are projected to reach 7182.5 billion yuan in December 2025, recovering from the previous month's 3900 billion yuan [15][16] - The total social financing is expected to average 1.8 trillion yuan, lower than the previous month's 2.5 trillion yuan [16][17] - M2 growth is predicted to remain at 8%, consistent with November's figures [18] Policy Directions - Fiscal policy is anticipated to become more proactive, with an increase in the scale of government debt and continued support for local debt initiatives [20][21] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [20][21]