2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

证券代码：002831 证券简称：裕同科技 公告编号：2025-027 深圳市裕同包装科技股份有限公司 关于公司控股股东股份质押变动的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 深圳市裕同包装科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日接到公司控股股 东吴兰兰女士通知，获悉股东吴兰兰女士所持有公司的部分股票已办理解质押和质 押延期购回手续，具体情况如下： | | | | | | | | 已质押股份 | | 未质押股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持股数量（含 | | 本次质押变 | 本次质押变 | 占其所 | 占公司 | 情况 | | 情况 | | | 股东名 | 间接持股） | 持股比 | 动前质押股 | 动后质押股 | 持股份 | 总股本 | 已质押 | 占已 | 未质押 | 占未 | | 称 | （股） | 例 | 份数量 | 份数量 | 比例 | 比例 | | 质押 | | 质押 | | | | | （股） | （股） | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pet supplies sector, AI glasses, and the home improvement market, highlighting potential acquisition opportunities and new product launches [2][6][27]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of essential consumer goods in the personal care sector, with a notable trend towards domestic brands, particularly during promotional events like the 618 sales [6][14]. - The pet supplies market is experiencing consolidation opportunities, with companies like Tianyuan Pet and Yiyi Co. being recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [6][7]. - The AI glasses segment is expected to see significant product launches in the latter half of 2025, driven by collaborations between major tech companies [12][20]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies on the real estate market, which is anticipated to stabilize and boost related sectors, including home improvement [27][28]. Summary by Sections New Consumer Trends - The report identifies the pet supplies sector as a key area for mergers and acquisitions, recommending companies such as Tianyuan Pet and Yiyi Co. for their strong market presence and growth prospects [6][7]. - AI glasses are positioned for growth with new product launches expected from major players like Google and XREAL, indicating a robust market expansion [12][20]. Personal Care Sector - The personal care market shows resilience, with domestic brands gaining traction, particularly during promotional periods [14]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Baiya Co., Haoyue Care, and Dengkang Oral Care, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing consumer trends [14][15]. Home Improvement and Real Estate - The report notes that government initiatives are likely to support the real estate market, leading to improved conditions for the home improvement sector [27][28]. - Companies like Sophia and Oppein Home are highlighted for their potential to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the housing market [23][27]. Paper Industry - The report mentions a price increase in the paper sector, with expectations for price stabilization due to supply adjustments [25]. - Recommended companies in this space include Sun Paper, which is noted for its integrated operations and cost advantages [25]. Export and Trade - The report discusses the impact of tariff changes on exports, particularly in the light industrial sector, with a focus on companies that have a strong competitive edge [6][20].

证券代码：002831 证券简称：裕同科技 公告编号：2025-026 深圳市裕同包装科技股份有限公司 关于公司控股股东部分股份质押延期购回的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 深圳市裕同包装科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日接到公司控股股 东吴兰兰女士通知，获悉股东吴兰兰女士所持有公司的部分股票已办理质押延期购 回手续，具体质押延期购回情况如下： | | | 注：上述限售股相关内容不包括高管限售股情况。 二、股东质押股份被冻结或拍卖等基本情况 一、股东股份质押变动基本情况 1、本次股份质押延期购回基本情况 | 股东名 | 是否为控 股股东或 第一大股 | 本次延期 购回股份 | 占其所 持股份 | 占公司 总股本 | 是否 为限 | 是否 为补 | 原质押 | | 原质押 | | 延期后 质押到 | | 质权人 | 质押用 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | | 数量 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a potential divergence in new consumption performance, suggesting a focus on leading companies and undervalued targets [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain digitalization as a core barrier in the mother and baby industry, indicating a shift towards a "content + community" ecosystem [4][5] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Supply chain disruptions continue, with pulp prices recovering rapidly; needle pulp prices are at $740 (down $30 MoM) and unbleached kraft pulp at $620 (down $30 MoM) [2] - Short-term pulp prices are expected to remain low due to ongoing pressure from downstream demand [2] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe Shares for profit improvement [2] Exports - April export data shows a stable overall performance with a YoY increase of 8.1%, but regional disparities are evident [2] - Exports to the US decreased by 21%, while those to ASEAN increased by 20.8% [2] - Companies like Jiangyi Shares and Hars are recommended for short-term performance recovery [2] New Tobacco - Increased scrutiny from the FDA on illegal e-cigarette products, with a warning issued to 24 importers [3] - The report suggests that compliance suppliers will become increasingly scarce, benefiting compliant brands like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [3] Home Furnishing - Stabilization in second-hand housing prices is noted, with 52% of key city neighborhoods seeing price increases [3] - Recommendations include companies like Gujia Home and Mousse Shares for their strong market positions [3] Consumer Goods - The pet brand sector shows strong growth, with Petty's sales during the 618 shopping festival exceeding 12 million [3] - 52TOYS has submitted an IPO application, indicating a growing trend in the collectible toy sector [3] Packaging - Yongxin Shares and Yutong Technology show stable operations with robust overseas orders [3] - The report anticipates a double-digit growth recovery in Q2 for these companies [3] Two-Wheelers - Ninebot's sales during the 618 pre-sale reached 210 million, showing a significant YoY increase [3] - Aima Technology's stock incentive plan reflects confidence in future growth [3] Jewelry - Chaohongji is planning an H-share issuance to enhance its global strategy [4] - Recommendations include brands like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji for their brand value [4] Cross-Border E-commerce - Increased pressure on low-value package tariffs is anticipated, with G7 discussions on imposing tariffs on Chinese products [4] - TikTok's new policies in Europe may provide growth opportunities for cross-border sellers [4] IP Retail - Pop Mart's jewelry brand is set to open its first store in Shanghai, indicating a new growth avenue [4] - Miniso's Q1 revenue reached 4.43 billion, with a notable increase in overseas store openings [4] Mother and Baby - The industry is transitioning towards a digital supply chain model, focusing on efficiency and flexibility [4] - Recommendations include leading companies like Kidswant and Goodbaby for their growth potential [4] E-commerce - Huitongda's self-branding strategy shows promising results, with significant growth in orders [5] - The report highlights the potential of AI-driven live commerce strategies [5] Electrical and Lighting - Bull Group continues to innovate with new products meeting national standards for charging stations [5] - Op Lighting is exploring new applications for LED technology in agriculture [5] Tools - The report notes a recovery in profit expectations for tool companies, despite weak global demand [5] - Recommendations include companies like Juxing Technology for their market positioning [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The light industry manufacturing sector is experiencing price increases, with wood pulp paper companies announcing price hikes for various paper products starting from May 21, 2025 [2] - The report highlights a positive outlook for new consumption sub-sectors, including personal care, IP cultural products, new tobacco, smart glasses, and pet-related products [2] - Following the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S., there is a recommendation to focus on the recovery of the export chain [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - In April, residential construction area decreased by 26% year-on-year, and residential sales area fell by 3.5% year-on-year [6] - Retail sales of furniture increased by 26.9% year-on-year in April, while sales in building materials and home furnishing markets decreased by 2.52% [6][39] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the customized home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home and Sophia [6] Paper and Packaging - As of May 23, 2025, prices for various paper products show mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5162.5 CNY/ton and boxboard paper at 3525.4 CNY/ton [6][50] - The report recommends companies with integrated wood pulp and paper operations, such as Sun Paper, and those with strong domestic sales expectations like Huawang Technology [6] - The report notes a 7.6% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in the paper industry for the first four months of 2025 [6][64] Light Industry Consumption - The approval of new national standards for disposable sanitary products is expected to benefit compliant leading brands [6] - The report highlights the strong performance of personal care e-commerce in April and suggests focusing on brands like Dengkang Oral Care and Baiya [6] - The report also mentions the positive outlook for cultural products, recommending companies like Morning Glory [6] Export Chain - In April, exports of certain products like thermos cups increased by 7.34%, while pet food exports decreased by 9.08% [6] - The report anticipates a significant effect from the temporary suspension of tariffs, benefiting companies with robust domestic and international production capabilities [6] New Tobacco - The report notes the potential for new tobacco products to gain traction as international tobacco companies launch HNB products [6] - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the new tobacco sector, such as Smoore International, which has strong partnerships with major clients [6] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is also noted for outperforming the market, with specific companies showing significant stock price increases [6][29] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Anta and Li Ning in the sportswear segment [6]

证券代码：002831 证券简称：裕同科技 公告编号：2025-025 深圳市裕同包装科技股份有限公司 深圳市裕同包装科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2024 年年度权益分派 方案已获 2025 年 5 月 20 日召开的 2024 年度股东大会审议通过，现将权益分派事 宜公告如下： 一、股东大会审议通过的利润分配方案等情况 2024 年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、权益分派方案：本利润分配方案自披露至实施期间，公司股本总额 930,513,553 股，未发生变化；公司回购账户股份总数由 19,750,253 股变更为 25,911,149 股，即剔除回购股份后的股本基数为 904,602,404 股。 按照"现金分红金额固定不变"的原则，按公司最新剔除回购账户股份后的股 本基数 904,602,404 股计算分配比例为每 10 股派现金人民币 6.040863 元（含税）， 总计派息 546,457,919.20 元。 2、股权登记日：2025 年 5 月 29 日。 3、除权除息日：2025 年 5 ...

Group 1: Growth Strategies - The company anticipates maintaining medium to high-speed growth over the next 3-5 years, driven by international expansion, smart manufacturing, eco-friendly packaging, and domestic market potential [2][3][4]. - International expansion includes establishing new production bases in Europe, the Middle East, and the U.S. within 2-3 years, leveraging existing customer relationships [2][3]. - Smart manufacturing investments have positioned the company as a leader in automation and efficiency, with a dedicated team of around 200 engineers and 100 IT specialists [3]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - The company sees significant potential in the heavy packaging market, particularly in automotive parts exports, and aims to lead in high-end card and new consumer packaging [11]. - The eco-friendly packaging segment is expected to grow as material development and process improvements reduce manufacturing costs [3]. - The company is also focusing on the robot industry through its subsidiary, which has gained traction in small-batch production [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - Currently, overseas production capacity accounts for approximately 20%, with a goal of achieving a 50:50 distribution between domestic and international operations in the long term [4]. - The company aims for a net profit margin of 12% or higher, leveraging its competitive advantages in differentiated manufacturing [4][5]. - Since its listing, the company has completed dividends totaling approximately 2.85 billion yuan and plans to continue share buybacks [12]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company has a first-mover advantage in overseas production, with a workforce of around 3,000 in Vietnam, while local competitors are primarily small factories [5]. - Established smart factories in China allow for rapid replication of successful practices in international markets, enhancing cost control and efficiency [5]. - The company has formed stable supply relationships with numerous international clients, positioning itself to capitalize on consumer upgrades in various regions [5][8]. Group 5: Risk Management - The company’s overseas expansion is strategically aligned with customer demand, ensuring that capacity increases are based on market needs rather than speculative investments [6][7]. - The company is cautious about potential competition from emerging local packaging firms in Southeast Asia, focusing on maintaining its technological and operational advantages [9].

Group 1: Dividend Market Insights - The essence of the dividend market is linked to the performance of key sectors such as coal, steel, and banking, which drive absolute returns[1] - Historical performance shows that dividend assets gained both absolute and relative returns during specific periods, notably from March 2016 to January 2018 and February 2021 to June 2024[7] - The decline in dividend asset performance often correlates with the emergence of other investment opportunities in the A-share market[14] Group 2: Dividend Willingness and Industry Analysis - Following the new national policies in 2024, A-share companies are increasing their dividend payout ratios, particularly those capable of sustaining dividends[2] - Industries with enhanced dividend willingness include finance (rural commercial banks, joint-stock banks), utilities (logistics, shipping), consumer goods (white goods, leisure food, liquor), and manufacturing (commercial vehicles, lighting equipment)[2] - The overall dividend payout ratio for A-share companies is projected to decrease from approximately 35% in 2023 to about 33% in 2024, despite an increase in the number of companies paying dividends[27] Group 3: High-Quality Dividend Strategy - A modified high-quality dividend strategy has shown excess returns compared to traditional dividend strategies, with significant improvements in risk-adjusted performance metrics like the Sharpe ratio[44] - The strategy focuses on selecting stocks with low price-to-book (PB) ratios, high and stable return on equity (ROE), and strong dividend payouts[41] - Backtesting results indicate that the modified strategy yields a cumulative return of 136.75% with an annualized return of 11.31%[48] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies and accelerated style rotation in equity markets[4] - The report highlights the importance of institutional behavior in driving both absolute and relative returns of dividend assets, particularly in 2024[20]

Group 1: Supply Chain and Risk Management - In 2024, supply chain security (e.g., BOPP film, aluminum foil) is a focus, with plans to diversify suppliers and integrate resources to reduce supply risks [1] - The inventory turnover rate is expected to decrease by 15% due to stockpiling in response to rising raw material prices, with strategies to optimize production plans and enhance supply chain collaboration [3] Group 2: Research and Development - R&D expenses are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, but the R&D expense ratio is only 3.5%, lower than industry leaders, indicating a need to balance R&D investment with short-term profitability [2] - The company aims to enhance its technology innovation capabilities and improve the conversion rate of R&D results [2] Group 3: Customer Base and Market Expansion - In 2024, revenue from core customers (e.g., top 10 domestic pharmaceutical companies) is expected to exceed 65%, with plans to reduce customer concentration risk by expanding into innovative pharmaceutical and healthcare markets [2] - The company is focusing on market expansion in consumer packaging and cosmetics packaging to enhance customer loyalty and brand image [2] Group 4: Financial Performance and Management - Government subsidies accounted for 12% of net profit in 2024, primarily due to industry upgrade subsidies and tax incentives, with plans to reduce dependency on such subsidies by expanding non-policy-dependent businesses [7] - The dividend payout ratio is maintained at 25%, while cash holdings as a percentage of total assets have decreased to 18%, indicating a need to balance capital expenditure with shareholder returns [9] Group 5: Digital Transformation and Innovation - The company is advancing towards smart and digital factory operations, with plans to enhance production transparency through technologies like MES and AI process optimization [9] - There is a focus on developing new packaging solutions, including smart anti-counterfeiting packaging and high-barrier materials, to increase product value [26] Group 6: Environmental and Social Responsibility - Environmental investments are expected to increase by 30% in 2024, with ongoing efforts to implement clean production methods and circular economy practices [20] - The company is committed to enhancing its brand value through carbon footprint certification and ESG ratings [20] Group 7: Debt and Financial Structure - The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to rise by 4 percentage points to 52%, with plans to optimize financing channels to reduce financial costs [22] - The company is actively managing accounts receivable, with a focus on minimizing bad debt risks and improving cash flow through credit management [30]