①巴菲特：美股波动不值一提，希望持有日本五大商社至少50年；②OPEC+增产引发油价大跌，市场 担忧供应过剩；③苹果预计本季度将因关税损失约9亿美元，明秋或出折叠屏iPhone。 ③苹果预计本季度将因关税损失约9亿美元 明秋或出折叠屏iPhone 苹果公司5月2日早晨盘后公布的财报显示，一季度总净营收为953.59亿美元，净利润为247.80亿美元， 均同比增长5%；但大中华区营收为160.02亿美元，同比下降2%。尽管营收和利润均超出华尔街预期， 但服务业务收入未能达到分析师预期，且公司CEO库克表示，公司预计本季度将因美国关税政策损失约 9亿美元。此外有消息称，苹果计划在今年晚些时候推出一款5.5毫米超薄的新款iPhone；首款折叠屏 iPhone将于明年秋季亮相，采用书本式折叠设计，展开后达8英寸；iPhone 18标准版推迟至2027年春 季，Pro系列将搭载屏下Face ID。 ①巴菲特：美股波动不值一提 希望持有日本五大商社至少50年 在5月3日晚间的伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上，巴菲特表示，美股近期巨震与历史上的大崩盘相比，根本 不算什么。假设伯克希尔的股价暴跌30%，会是非常好的机会。他表示不在意 ...

Company Overview - Lujiazui International Trust Co., Ltd. is a trust institution controlled by Shanghai Lujiazui Financial Development Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 10.4 billion RMB [3] - The company was established in October 2003 and underwent several restructuring phases, with significant capital increases approved by the China Banking Regulatory Commission over the years, culminating in a registered capital of 10.4 billion RMB as of August 2022 [3][4] Business Operations - The company primarily engages in trust and proprietary business, with trust business categorized into various types including financing trust, securities investment trust, and asset management trust [14][15] - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness through a "four modernization" strategy focusing on specialization, diversification, branding, and distinctive features [12][13] Market Analysis - The overall economic performance in China is projected to achieve around 5% growth in 2024, with a "V" shaped recovery anticipated due to various supportive policies [17][18] - The company faces challenges such as significant existing risks in the trust industry and the need for business transformation amidst increasing competition from other financial institutions [19][20] Risk Management - The company emphasizes a comprehensive risk management framework that includes credit, market, liquidity, operational, legal, policy, and reputational risks [33][35] - Specific measures for managing credit risk include thorough credit investigations and strict adherence to internal review processes [45] Social Responsibility - The company actively participates in public welfare and charity initiatives, providing financial support for rural revitalization projects and promoting green finance [50][51] - It has established a dedicated charity trust department to enhance its charitable activities and investor education efforts [51][52] Consumer Protection - The company has implemented a comprehensive consumer protection framework, ensuring that consumer rights are integrated into its business operations [54] - It has developed a consumer protection management system and actively engages in financial education to enhance consumer awareness [53][54]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The S&P 500 index is perceived to have peaked this year, with 93% of investors expecting it to remain below 6000 points in the next 12 months, and 40% predicting it will stay between 5000-5500 points [1] - Concerns about trade wars and tariffs are leading to expectations of economic stagnation, with 61% of investors anticipating stagflation in the U.S. economy over the next year [1][2] - The Trump administration's tariff policies are projected to reduce U.S. GDP growth expectations to 0.5% by 2025, with tariffs causing production costs to rise by 5%-15% for companies reliant on imported materials [2] Group 2: Technology Sector Insights - Despite overall market pessimism, 41% of investors remain optimistic about the "Mag-7/GenAI theme," indicating a willingness to invest in technology giants [1] - Alibaba's Qwen3 series models have been released, showcasing significant advancements in AI capabilities and a reduction in deployment costs, making it competitive against top models like OpenAI's [3][4] - The technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to continue attracting investment, with a focus on the performance and strategic developments of major players [4][10] Group 3: Corporate Performance and Strategic Challenges - Apple's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to slightly exceed market expectations, but investors are more focused on strategic issues such as tariff risks and AI strategy [5][6] - BP reported a 49% decline in first-quarter profits, attributed to weak oil prices, while the CEO remains optimistic about the company's strategic adjustments [7][8] - UPS is exploring the deployment of humanoid robots in its logistics network, reflecting a strong interest in automation within the logistics industry [9][10]

Economic Data and Market Outlook - The upcoming week will see the release of significant economic data and corporate earnings, with a focus on the April non-farm payroll report and Q1 inflation data [1] - Economists expect Q1 GDP annualized growth to drop from 2.4% in Q4 to 0.1%, while the core PCE price index is projected to decrease from 2.8% to 2.5% year-on-year [1] - 180 S&P 500 companies will report quarterly earnings, with major tech firms like Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft being closely watched for their performance and guidance [1] Corporate Earnings and Sector Performance - AbbVie reported Q1 earnings that exceeded expectations, with global net revenue reaching $13.343 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [5] - The pharmaceutical sector is showing slightly positive sentiment, with companies like Johnson & Johnson and Merck also reporting stable earnings [5] - NXP Semiconductors reported Q1 revenue of $2.84 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.3%, but adjusted earnings per share were above expectations [7] Industry Trends and Future Projections - The U.S. pharmaceutical sector is expected to see an annual revenue growth of 7.5% over the next three years, driven by an aging population and increasing prescription drug spending [6] - The demand for electric vehicles is projected to grow by 18%, while internal combustion vehicle demand is expected to decline by 7.2% [7] - The technology sector's revenue is anticipated to exceed $11 trillion by 2032, with an annual growth rate of 10% [10] Energy and AI Demand - Companies like Amazon and NVIDIA are exploring various energy sources to meet the growing energy demands of AI data centers, including natural gas and other fossil fuels [9] - There is a significant emphasis on the need for stable energy sources in the short term, despite long-term goals to reduce carbon emissions [9]

房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 地产政策仍定位于托底和稳信心 核心观点 投资建议与投资标 ⚫ 4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出 "加力实施城市更新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。"2024 年 10 月住 建部提出通过货币化安置房等方式新增实施 100 万套城中村改造、危旧房改造，并 于今年两会上表示将继续扩大规模。多城已出台放票安置政策，我们认为年内旧改 有望继续放量。针对部分项目"征收方案扎实"和"项目资金总体平衡"之间的矛 盾，不排除未来中央财政补贴资金缺口以及央行投放 PSL 以支持城中村改造。"加 快构建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给。"今年"好房子"首次被写入 《政府工作报告》，3 月底，住建部发布国家标准《住宅项目规范》。虽然新房市 场整体成交同比仍有下行压力，但在部分高能级城市，核心区域质量与得房率双高 楼盘陆续推出，释放改善型住房需求，在一定程度上给予新房销售支撑。未来随着 更多四代宅的推出，新房销售有望开始企稳。"优化存量商品房收购政策。"2024 年 10 月，财政部提出专项债收储商品房用作保障性住房；2025 年 3 月， ...

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - The final consumer confidence index for April in the U.S. is 52.2, a significant drop from 57 in March, marking one of the lowest levels since the late 1970s [1] - Consumers expect an average inflation rate of 4.4% over the next 5-10 years, the highest since 1991, with a one-year inflation expectation of 6.5%, the highest since 1981 [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report indicates rising asset valuation risks and high U.S. Treasury yields, with global trade risks identified as the top threat to financial stability [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance and Predictions - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator signaling a potential new upward cycle, historically leading to a 100% success rate of gains in the following 12 months [3] - Despite the rebound, analysts caution that the market may face volatility due to macro uncertainties, particularly regarding trade negotiations [3][4] - Bank of America suggests that the rebound may not be sustainable unless three conditions are met: a trade agreement, a Fed rate cut, and resilient consumer spending [3][4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a record outflow of $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold ETF, the largest single-day outflow since 2011 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the current pullback in gold prices may present a buying opportunity, advocating for a 10% allocation in gold within investment portfolios [5] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive despite short-term risks, as inflation persists and the Fed maintains a neutral policy stance [5][7] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - Novo Nordisk achieved a significant legal victory, allowing the FDA to take action against the production of generic versions of its diabetes and weight loss drugs, which had previously faced shortages [8] - The court ruling is seen as a positive development for Novo Nordisk, which has faced stock price declines due to competitive pressures and underwhelming new product performance [8] - The market for weight loss drugs is now highly competitive, with Novo Nordisk's main competitor being Eli Lilly, posing ongoing challenges for the company's stock performance [8] Group 5: Autonomous Driving Regulations - The U.S. Department of Transportation announced a major relaxation of regulations for autonomous vehicles, streamlining the accident reporting process and facilitating the commercial rollout of self-driving cars [10] - This regulatory change is particularly beneficial for Tesla, which plans to launch its Cybercab service in Texas, and may enhance the testing and deployment of autonomous vehicles [10] - Despite an 18% rebound in Tesla's stock, concerns remain regarding the company's performance metrics and the influence of CEO Elon Musk's political activities on stock volatility [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing importance of real estate strategies, emphasizing the need for quality housing supply and urban renewal initiatives to stabilize the market [4][32]. - Recent policies aim to enhance the real estate market's stability, with a focus on optimizing existing housing stock and promoting high-quality housing [32][33]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of April 19-25, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 206.4 million square meters, reflecting an 8.4% week-on-week increase [5]. - Year-on-year, April's new housing transactions in these cities decreased by 21.2% compared to the same period last year [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 142.4 million square meters, marking a 6.5% increase from the previous week [13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand housing transactions for April showed a 1.5% year-on-year increase [13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of April 19-25, 2025, 15 key cities launched 121 million square meters of new housing, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.68, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [23]. - The total available residential area in these cities reached 89.5 million square meters, with an average absorption period of 23.2 months [23]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that the central government is reinforcing economic stability measures, including urban renewal and high-quality housing supply [32][33]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as tax subsidies for home purchases in specific regions [33][35]. Company Performance Overview - The report provides a snapshot of key companies' performances, indicating mixed results with some companies like Lujiazui showing revenue growth of 33% in 2024, while others like Tianjian Group experienced a 21% revenue decline [39]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw Lujiazui's revenue increase by 41% year-on-year, reflecting a positive trend in the company's performance [39].

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 李贝贝 上海报道 4月23日，上海陆家嘴金融贸易区开发股份有限公司（下称"陆家嘴"，600663.SH）披露，2024年，公司营收增长 显著，同比上涨33.12%，净利润等数据亦有所提升。 不过，报告期内，公司短期借款为198.14亿元，同比增长42.24%，期末现金及现金等价物余额仅为77.43亿元。同 期，因2024年度住宅销售回款流入较2023年度减少，以及支付土地款等，公司经营活动产生的现金流净额13.16亿 元，同比大降88.44%。 需要注意的是，尽管偿债压力提升、经营现金流大幅下滑，但陆家嘴依然保持着高额现金分红。公司2024年度现 金分红合计金额为7.54亿元（含已中期分配的现金红利），占2024年度归属于上市公司股东净利润的50.02%。不 仅如此，公司自2002年以来坚持每年现金分红，且自2016年度起，连续八年每年现金分红比例达50%。而陆家嘴 前十名股东中，上海陆家嘴（集团）有限公司持股62.20%。 此外，同日公布的一季度报告显示，今年1—3月，公司住宅类物业销售签约面积1.08万平米，同比下降2%，权益 签约面积0.98万 ...

活动旨在汇聚头部投资机构与产业资本代表，共同探讨S基金如何在优化资产配置、激活市场流动性、助力产业升级中发挥关键作用，推动私募股权二级市 场健康发展。 随着国内私募股权市场规模持续扩容，基金退出需求激增，S基金作为二级市场的重要参与者，在盘活存量资产、化解流动性困境等方面的价值日益凸显。 然而，当前我国S基金市场仍面临交易流程复杂、估值定价模糊、信息不对称等挑战。 陆家嘴金融沙龙作为前沿金融思维的对话平台，即将迎来第九期活动——S基金专场。 本次沙龙以"S基金赋能股权投资新生态"为主题，将于2025年4月26日上午在上海浦东陆家嘴举行。活动旨在汇聚头部投资机构与产业资本代表，共同探讨S 基金如何在优化资产配置、激活市场流动性、助力产业升级中发挥关键作用，推动私募股权二级市场健康发展。 作为主嘉宾，上海国投孚腾资本总经理、管理合伙人费飞将发表重要演讲。费飞在股权投资领域深耕多年，目前负责国投孚腾全面统筹管理工作，他将分享 自己对行业趋势的深刻洞察与丰富的实战经验。 对话嘉宾也将结合各自领域的特点，围绕主题进行发言。 周智辉，中金资本董事总经理、中金汇融总经理，同时也是中金资本S业务、江苏/河南区域、半导体行业组 ...

①Alphabet一季度营收和利润均超预期 搜索广告业务强劲表现 得益于搜索广告业务持续强劲的表现，谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度营收902.34亿美元，同比增长12%， 不计入汇率变动影响同比增长14%；净利润345.4亿美元，同比激增46%，每股摊薄收益2.81美元，均远 超分析师预期。谷歌搜索及其他业务营收507.02亿美元，YouTube广告业务营收89.27亿美元，略低于预 期。谷歌云业务营收122.6亿美元，基本符合预期。公司还宣布回购至多700亿美元的A类和C类股。谷 歌A类股和C类股隔夜均收涨，受益于盘后公布的财报优秀，盘后股价均涨4.5%左右。 评论员徐广语：谷歌一季度财报表现亮眼，核心业务增长强劲，广告收入（搜索+YouTube）同比增长 超15%，云业务收入同比增长28%，成为重要增长引擎。公司首次宣布季度股息（每股0.21美元）及700 亿美元股票回购计划，传递现金流充裕和股东回报信心。人工智能投入初见成效，Gemini模型推动搜索 与云业务创新，资本支出同比提升至120亿美元，持续强化AI基础设施布局。尽管面临反垄断诉讼风 险，但市场反应积极，盘后股价一度涨超5%，显示投资者对其长 ...