Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of coking coal options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which will enhance risk management tools for the steel and coal chemical industries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Context - Coking coal is a core raw material for the steel and coal chemical industries, with China being the largest producer and consumer globally. In 2024, China's production of premium coking coal is projected to be 165 million tons, accounting for 53% of global production, while consumption is expected to reach 206 million tons, representing 63% of global consumption [1]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange launched coking coal futures in 2013 to help industries manage price volatility, and the market has since expanded significantly, with an average daily trading volume of 1.04 million contracts and an average open interest of 670,000 contracts in the first 11 months of 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Options Launch Details - Coking coal options will be listed for trading starting January 16, 2026, with specific trading hours and contract details outlined, including the first contracts based on futures contracts JM2604 to JM2612 [2][3]. - The trading fee for coking coal options is set at 0.5 yuan per contract, with a reduced fee for hedging transactions, and a position limit of 8,000 contracts [2]. Group 3: Contract Design - The design of coking coal options follows a similar approach to existing options, featuring both call and put options, with a minimum price fluctuation of 0.1 yuan per ton [3]. - The exercise price will cover a range corresponding to 1.5 times the price fluctuation limits of the underlying futures, with varying intervals based on the price level [3]. Group 4: Industry Impact - The introduction of coking coal options is seen as a significant advancement in the risk management framework for the coal and steel industry, providing companies with enhanced flexibility and diversity in hedging strategies [4]. - Industry experts believe that the options will allow companies to optimize their hedging strategies and improve capital efficiency, thereby supporting the high-quality development of the coal and steel sectors [4].

Group 1 - Apple futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 9499.00 yuan, with a current price of 9492.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.61% [1] - Guosen Futures predicts that the apple market will primarily experience wide fluctuations within a range, with a focus on holiday inventory conditions [2] - Green Dahan Futures indicates that apple prices are likely to maintain high-level fluctuations, with overall trading in production areas being slightly sluggish [2] - Southwest Futures expects a strong price trend in the medium to long term, despite slow inventory reduction in the short term [3] Group 2 - The apple inventory this year is at a lower peak compared to last year, marking the lowest in recent years, while new season apple production and quality have declined [3] - The demand for cold storage apples remains decent, particularly for red apple varieties, with increased shipping speed noted [2] - The impact of seasonal consumption on the inventory of general quality apples and prices is a key factor to monitor [2]

研究员：侯建 纪晓云 从业资格 F3066027 交易咨询：Z0011402 联系电话： (010)56711796 根据掌上煤焦提供的288口岸通关数据，截止到12月30日，12月日均通关车辆为1457车，为3年以来的月均最高。从左图不难看出，288 口岸库存与焦煤期货主力合约价格存在较大的负相关关系。右图的月均通关在8月后持续上升，表明蒙媒基本吃到了反内卷政策的红利。 但"已有之事后必再有。已行之事后必再行"。在2025年动力煤价格指数"618-831"政策调控区间的预期下，2026年的乐焦煤现实能。 否站稳,还需要关注进口煤边际定价能力和政策出手的节点。 负责声明，本报告中的信息地来源于公开资枓、我公司的这些信息的这就性彩票推行《作在何报》、不知证报告信息已说最新女更、也不知近分析网站出近任何建议死会发生任何交叉。在任何情况下、报告中的信息或所发达的意见并不如成活出期 娱乐研买卖的比价或价价。在任何情况下，我公司不就报告中的任何内容对任何没奇得就出任何形式的型标、投资者担收投资、投资风险电竞竞吧。我公司可能发出与东招告高7万一颗效期检发告。本报告展份所何本人的意见与结论，并不代表 我公司的立场。未经我公 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、上周（12 | 月 | 22 | 日-12 | 月 | 28 | 日），10 | 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积 | 总计 | 293.66 | 万平方米，环比增长 | 31.6%，同比下降 | 27.7%。 | | 2、据 | Mysteel | 不完全整理，2025 | 年超 | 130 | 个钢铁项目开工或投产。 | 3、2026 | 年国补方案 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一国债期货主力合约开盘涨跌参半、大致平开，早盘开盘后即大幅下行一波然后 走平，午后小幅下探后略有反弹，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.91%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.28%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.18%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 4823 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 673 亿元逆回 购到期，当日合计净投放 4150 亿元 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese futures industry has shown resilience and growth momentum in a complex market environment, with cumulative operating income and net profit exceeding last year's levels in the first 11 months of the year [1] - The net profit of futures companies has surpassed 10 billion yuan, exceeding the total net profit for the entire year of 2024, indicating strong performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In November, 150 futures companies achieved a total operating income of 2.918 billion yuan and a net profit of 603 million yuan [1] - From January to November, the cumulative operating income reached 37.097 billion yuan, and the cumulative net profit was 10.316 billion yuan, compared to 36.491 billion yuan in operating income and 8.767 billion yuan in net profit for the same period last year [1] - The total net profit for 2024 is projected to be 9.471 billion yuan, indicating significant growth in the current year [1] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Growth - The increase in net profit is attributed to multiple factors, including scale expansion, structural optimization, cost control, and supportive industry environment [1] - Key drivers include substantial growth in client equity and trading volume, effective cost management, and a recovery in market demand supported by policies [2] - The overall stability in the futures industry is also linked to macroeconomic factors, such as ongoing growth policies in China and global liquidity easing, which have boosted market risk appetite [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for the futures industry in 2025, expecting continued high market volatility and active trading driven by factors like Federal Reserve policy expectations and seasonal demand [3] - The potential for futures companies to enhance their business transformation and service capabilities could further strengthen industry resilience [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic outlook in the macro and financial sector is (weakening) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is weakening as the US makes continuous policy mistakes and is past its peak [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Trump ordered an air strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve, escalating US tensions with the largest economy in West Africa, and the move is related to global energy pattern changes and strategic mineral supply - chain competition [1] - The US economy shows a "K - shaped divide", with large enterprises profiting from the AI wave while small businesses face difficulties due to inflation, tariffs, and consumption downgrade, exacerbating employment and social inequality [1] - Large tech companies are moving over $120 billion in data - center spending off their balance sheets via SPVs, raising concerns about financial risks in AI investment [1] - Mark Strouse from JPMorgan believes that in 2025, investors only need AI exposure, but in 2026, actual deals and order accumulation are required [1] - A new La Nina is forming, the fifth in the past six years, which will disrupt the global weather system and pose risks to agriculture, energy markets, and supply chains [1] - Jim Rickards predicts that factors driving the metal market up will continue next year, with gold possibly reaching $10,000 and silver $200 [1] - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with the one - year silver swap spread at - 7.18%, showing a shortage of physical silver [1] - Fujitsu will join a project led by SoftBank to develop next - generation memory for AI and supercomputers, aiming to revive Japan's memory production technology [1] Global Economic Logic - Goldman Sachs believes global stocks are in the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, with a 15% total return (including dividends) in 2026 [2] - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to pre - 2008 financial crisis signals [2] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to boost its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a growing K - shaped divide among US consumers [2] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun thinks China will win the AI race due to favorable regulations and low energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for natural rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 15,890.00 yuan, with a current price of 15,840.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.62% [1] Group 2 - Xinhuh Futures indicates that natural rubber prices currently lack significant driving forces, with normal seasonal accumulation expected during the peak production season [2] - Green Dahu Futures suggests that the short-term trend for natural rubber may remain volatile, as domestic production in Hainan is transitioning to a cessation phase while overseas supply is increasing [3] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a volatile market for natural rubber, noting reduced supply elasticity and increased inventory levels due to a slowdown in tire shipments and rising finished product stocks [4]

Group 1 - The Guangzhou Municipal Government has issued the "Beautiful Guangzhou Construction Planning Outline (2025-2035)", which includes the promotion of a carbon emissions trading market and support for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to advance the carbon emissions futures market [1] - The carbon emissions trading mechanism is a core policy tool for achieving China's "dual carbon" goals, guiding enterprises in emission control through carbon price signals, and is characterized by flexibility and economic efficiency [1] - The national carbon market has expanded this year, increasing the covered emissions scale from 5 billion tons to 8 billion tons and the number of controlling enterprises from over 2,200 to 3,700, resulting in a 60% overall market scale increase [1] Group 2 - The futures industry is actively focusing on industrial demand and innovating services to contribute to carbon emissions trading, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange prioritizing carbon emissions as a major strategic product since its establishment [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has completed the design scheme for carbon emissions futures contracts and will proceed with the listing of carbon emissions futures while refining market research and contract design [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that spot gold prices have surged, breaking through the $4,300 mark, reaching a 50-day high, with current prices reported at $4,300.290 per ounce, reflecting a 0.49% increase [1] - On December 11, spot gold rose significantly, closing at $4,282.49 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.27% [2] - Domestic gold jewelry brands such as Chow Sang Sang, Lao Miao Gold, and Lao Feng Xiang have also seen their prices reach new highs for the year, with Chow Sang Sang gold jewelry priced at ¥1,338 per gram, Lao Miao Gold at ¥1,339 per gram, and Lao Feng Xiang at ¥1,337 per gram [2] Group 2 - Reports from Xinyi Futures indicate that the recent increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S. has strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which supports gold prices [6] - CITIC Futures suggests that the upcoming FOMC meeting in December may bring short-term adjustment pressure to precious metals, but the overall environment remains favorable for gold price increases [6] - According to Great Wall Futures, the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut signals a more accommodative policy, which supports precious metal prices, with strategies leaning towards a bullish outlook [6]