Investment Rating - The report rates the humanoid robot sector as having high configuration cost-effectiveness, suggesting a focus on core enterprises with performance support [2]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is advancing with significant commercial orders, including a notable contract worth 124 million yuan for humanoid robot manufacturing [23]. - The semiconductor equipment sector continues to thrive, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, particularly in AI and high-performance computing [26][27]. - The low-altitude economy is witnessing accelerated commercialization, highlighted by a major eVTOL export agreement worth 1 billion USD [31]. - The controllable nuclear fusion sector is progressing with the successful ignition of the HHMAX-901, marking a shift from laboratory to application [29]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The mechanical equipment sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 2.91% compared to the CSI 300's 1.09% [8][10]. - The printing and packaging machinery sub-sector showed the best performance with a 6.16% increase [12]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on humanoid robot companies like Top Group and Zhenyu Technology, which have strong performance backing [2]. - High-end computing and storage chip demand is expected to benefit key equipment companies, with recommendations for companies like Tuojing Technology and Shengmei Shanghai [2]. - Solid-state battery technology is advancing, with system integration equipment companies like Xian Dao Intelligent and Liyuan Heng likely to benefit [2]. Key Developments - The humanoid robot sector is seeing increased capital activity, with Yushu Technology completing its IPO guidance registration [4]. - ASML and TSMC reported strong Q2 results, with ASML's net sales reaching 7.7 billion euros, a 23.2% year-on-year increase [26][27]. - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction with significant orders for eVTOLs, marking a milestone in China's export capabilities [31]. Market Trends - The semiconductor sales in May showed a year-on-year increase of 18.2% globally and 13.0% in China [38]. - The production of industrial robots in China increased by 35.5% year-on-year in May, indicating robust growth in automation [48].

Group 1 - The semiconductor materials and equipment theme index on the STAR Market has seen a slight decline of 0.23% as of July 21, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The STAR semiconductor ETF (588170) has experienced a recent inflow of funds, accumulating a total of 32.47 million yuan over the past six days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 16.21 million yuan [1] - The ETF's latest scale reached 261 million yuan, marking a one-month high [1] Group 2 - OpenAI's CEO stated that the number of GPUs in use will exceed 1 million by the end of the year, indicating strong demand for AI-related hardware [2] - Hon Hai (Foxconn) has begun mass production of NVIDIA's GB200 AI servers and is set to introduce the next-generation GB300 servers, with expectations for the Vera Rubin platform to become a key product by late 2026 to 2027 [2] - Domestic IC design companies are working on adapting inference cards to local supply chains, which could benefit from the growing demand for AI and advanced packaging technologies [2][3] Group 3 - The STAR semiconductor ETF (588170) tracks the semiconductor materials and equipment theme index, focusing on companies in semiconductor equipment (59%) and materials (25%) sectors [3] - The semiconductor equipment and materials industry is crucial for domestic substitution, characterized by low domestic production rates and high potential for domestic replacement [3]

Group 1 - The China Securities Artificial Intelligence Industry Index (931071) decreased by 0.80% as of July 21, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Leading stocks included Allwinner Technology (300458) up 6.18%, Rockchip (603893) up 5.35%, and Orbbec (688322) up 3.01%, while Xinyisheng (300502) led the decline [1] - The Artificial Intelligence ETF (515980) was priced at 1.11 yuan, with a weekly increase of 7.51% as of July 18, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Artificial Intelligence ETF had a turnover rate of 2.53% and a half-day trading volume of 80.325 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 233 million yuan over the past week [3] - The latest scale of the Artificial Intelligence ETF reached 3.178 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 2.6603 million yuan on the previous trading day [3] - The ETF's net value increased by 46.20% over the past year, ranking 377 out of 2917 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 12.92% [3] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Artificial Intelligence Industry Index accounted for 52.07% of the index [4] - The top ten stocks included Zhongji Xuchuang (300308), Xinyisheng (300502), and Keda Xunfei (002230), among others [4][6] Group 4 - OpenAI launched a new intelligent agent product "ChatGPT Agent," marking the first combination of ChatGPT with "Deep Research" and "Operator," entering the automated AI agent field [6] - Dongwu Securities noted that AI demand is driving the equipment supply chain, with advanced processes continuing to expand [7] - Domestic IC design companies are working on migrating inference cards to domestic supply chains, benefiting related sectors such as advanced packaging [7]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report indicates a seasonal rebound in high-frequency indicators, with consumer performance remaining strong. The domestic economic growth momentum is improving, as evidenced by the positive shift in the macro diffusion index [8][9] - The report predicts an upward trend in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 25, 2025 [8] Industry and Company - The electric power equipment and new energy sector is expected to see increased demand for distribution equipment due to the approval of China's first cross-regional green electricity direct connection project [24] - The securities industry is experiencing a revival in equity refinancing, with several firms announcing plans to raise capital to support business expansion and innovation [26][27] - In the telecommunications sector, companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinye Sheng are forecasting significant profit growth for the first half of 2025, driven by demand for high-speed optical modules [28] - Dongfang Electric is poised to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with expected profit growth in the coming years [32] - Teruid's performance is projected to grow rapidly, with a forecasted net profit increase of 50%-80% for the first half of 2025, supported by strong overseas expansion [34][35] Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is seeing strong demand for allocation, with a notable increase in the average price of convertible bonds and a decrease in the average conversion premium [13][14] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with semiconductor products and equipment, automotive, and software sectors receiving significant capital inflows [20][21]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 21 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 市场有望再上一个台阶 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—7 月政治局会议前瞻——20250720 【金融工程】市场有望再上一个台阶——20250720 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值分数略微下降——20250719 【固定收益】如何看待商品价格大涨对债市冲击？——20250720 【固定收益】税期过后资金回落——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250719 【固定收益】今年农商缘何配债缓慢——几个推测——20250719 【固定收益】与周期和创新共舞——低利率时代资管机构之美国公募篇 ——20250718 【轻工制造】日本谷子经济复盘：以日为鉴，成功密码是什么？—— 20250720 【银行】本周聚焦—25Q2 存贷款增长有哪些特征？——20250720 【食品饮料】技源集团：HMB 全球龙头， 营养健康产业链延伸——保健 品行业专题三——20250718 【医药&美妆】时代天使（06699.HK）-国产隐形正畸龙头，出海打开成 长天花板——20250719 【建材】苏博特（603916.SH）-混 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's 2nm process is set to begin mass production in the second half of this year, with strong demand from major clients like Apple, AMD, and Intel, leading to significant capacity expansion plans [1][2] Group 1: Production Capacity - TSMC plans to increase its 2nm monthly production capacity from 40,000 wafers by the end of this year to 100,000 wafers next year, representing a 150% increase [1] - By 2027, TSMC aims to further expand its 2nm capacity to between 160,000 and 180,000 wafers, with the potential to reach 200,000 wafers if demand exceeds expectations [1][2] - Currently, TSMC's advanced process capacities include approximately 160,000 wafers for the 7nm process, slightly over 160,000 for the 5nm process, and about 130,000 wafers for the 3nm process, with potential adjustments to reach 160,000 wafers [2] Group 2: Client Demand and Market Position - Major clients expected to adopt TSMC's 2nm process include Apple, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, MediaTek, and NVIDIA, indicating a broad market interest [1][2] - TSMC's advanced process expansion is anticipated to drive revenue growth, as newer processes command higher pricing, benefiting the company's operational performance [2] - The company expects that the number of product designs utilizing its 2nm technology in the first two years will surpass those for the 3nm and 5nm processes during their respective initial periods [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The electronic sub-industry index saw significant gains, with the component sector rising by 39.84% year-to-date [2][8] - The upcoming release of GPT-5 is expected to drive continued demand for computing power, with notable advancements in AI models [2] - NVIDIA's H20 GPU sales are anticipated to resume, indicating strong ongoing AI demand, as stated by TSMC [2] - The report suggests focusing on both overseas and domestic AI-related companies for potential investment opportunities [2] Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Performance - The performance of various electronic sectors year-to-date includes: Semiconductors (+3.02%), Other Electronics II (+9.45%), Components (+39.84%), Optical Electronics (-1.57%), Consumer Electronics (+1.86%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+11.61%) [2][8] - This week, the performance was: Semiconductors (+0.42%), Other Electronics II (+1.75%), Components (+9.36%), Optical Electronics (+0.44%), Consumer Electronics (+3.29%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+1.37%) [2][8] Key Stock Movements - Notable stock movements include: Apple (+0.01%), Tesla (+5.15%), NVIDIA (+4.54%), and Micron Technology (-8.14%) [2][9] AI Developments - OpenAI's CEO announced that the upcoming GPT-5 model is expected to achieve gold medal-level performance in the International Mathematical Olympiad [2] - The Kimi K2 model from the domestic sector has topped the global open-source model rankings, showcasing significant advancements in AI capabilities [2] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies for overseas AI investments include: Industrial Fulian, Huadian Co., Pengding Holdings, Shenghong Technology, and Shengyi Technology [2] - Recommended domestic AI companies include: Chipone Technology, Cambricon, Haiguang Information, SMIC, and Shenzhen South Circuit [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [4] Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand for high-speed optical modules and AI chip infrastructure, particularly in the context of companies like Nvidia and TSMC reporting strong earnings [1][3][17] - The performance of key companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng indicates a robust outlook for the optical module sector, with substantial year-on-year profit growth expected [1][30][36] Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Zhongji Xuchuang forecasts a net profit of 3.6 to 4.4 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.64% to 86.57% due to rising demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules [1] - Xinyi Sheng anticipates a net profit of 3.7 to 4.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47%, driven by changes in demand structure and increased production capacity [1][31] - TSMC reported a Q2 2025 revenue of 933.8 billion NTD, a 38.6% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 61% [1][17] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI computing infrastructure across various segments, particularly optical devices and modules, as well as domestic computing companies benefiting from increased investment in 2025 [3][59] - Long-term investment in the three major telecom operators is recommended due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [3][59] Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Zhongji Xuchuang's H1 2025 net profit is projected to be between 3.6 billion and 4.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 52.64% to 86.57% [36] - Xinyi Sheng's H1 2025 net profit is expected to be between 3.7 billion and 4.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 327.68% to 385.47% [31] - Guangku Technology anticipates a net profit of 48.56 to 54.63 million yuan for H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80% [42]

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by domestic AI development such as servers and IDC, as well as sectors benefiting from overseas AI development like servers and optical modules [4]. Core Insights - Nvidia's H20 sales resumption in China has positively impacted the data center sector, leading to a surge in related stocks, indicating improved market sentiment regarding computing power supply [1][2]. - ASML and TSMC reported better-than-expected Q2 2025 earnings, driven by strong AI demand, with ASML's net sales reaching €7.7 billion, up 23.2% year-on-year, and TSMC's revenue at NT$933.8 billion, up 38.6% year-on-year [1][59]. - The release of new AI models is accelerating technological iterations, with increased demand for inference and agent computing power [1]. - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng have reported Q2 2025 earnings that exceeded market expectations, reflecting positive trends in the downstream industry [1][9]. Summary by Sections Server Sector - The server index increased by 4.59% this week and 3.96% this month, driven by accelerated AI computing investments from North American cloud providers like Google and Meta, which plan to invest $25 billion and hundreds of billions respectively in AI infrastructure [2][6]. - TSMC's optimistic forecast for 2025, expecting a 30% year-on-year sales growth, further validates strong downstream AI demand [6][59]. Optical Module Sector - The optical module index rose by 9.17% this week and 10.33% this month, with North American cloud providers driving demand for 800G optical modules [9]. - Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are key suppliers in this sector, with projected net profits showing significant year-on-year growth [9]. IDC Sector - The IDC index increased by 5.28% this week and 4.31% this month, with the resumption of H20 supply alleviating previous chip shortages, indicating a potential turning point for the AIDC industry [12]. - The report anticipates continued growth in capital expenditures from domestic internet giants in the second half of 2025, supporting the domestic computing power chain [12].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Semiconductor Packaging Industry**: Focus on TSMC's CoWoS technology and related companies - **RISC-V Architecture**: Development and adoption in high-performance computing - **Micro-Short Drama Industry**: Growth and government support in Shenzhen - **Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Technology**: Medical applications and market potential - **AI in Healthcare**: Investment trends and technological advancements - **Tourism and Cruise Industry**: Summer tourism trends and company initiatives - **Robotics and AI**: Development in military and healthcare applications Core Insights and Arguments Semiconductor Packaging - TSMC is advancing its CoWoS technology, with expected Q3 sales between $31.8 billion and $33.1 billion, exceeding market estimates [2][3] - The global market for CoWoS technology is projected to exceed $10 billion by 2026, with China leading growth at 71% [2] RISC-V Architecture - The fifth RISC-V China Summit highlighted the acceleration of high-performance computing products [4] - Companies like Aojie Technology and Allwinner Technology are leading in RISC-V CPU subsystem development [5] Micro-Short Drama - Shenzhen's government has introduced measures to support the micro-short drama industry, with a market size expected to reach 68.6 billion yuan in 2025, growing at 36% [6][7] Brain-Computer Interface - The global BCI medical application market is projected to reach $40 billion by 2030, with significant growth in central nervous system disease treatments [8] - Companies like Yanshan Technology and Sanbo Brain Science are pioneering BCI applications [9] AI in Healthcare - The global AI healthcare investment landscape is heating up, with significant advancements in molecular modeling technology [11] - The company is collaborating with Tencent AI Lab to enhance drug discovery processes [11] Tourism and Cruise - The domestic summer tourism consumption is expected to reach 1.8 trillion yuan, with the company launching themed cruise lines [13] Robotics and AI - The military robotics sector is accelerating, with new developments in multifunctional robots for reconnaissance and inspection [16] - Companies are also focusing on healthcare robotics, with applications in rehabilitation and elderly care [15] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The CoWoS technology's capacity is directly linked to HBM production, indicating a critical supply chain relationship [2] - The RISC-V architecture's integration into data centers could disrupt traditional CPU markets [4] - The micro-short drama market's growth is driven by free content, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences [6] - The BCI technology's commercialization is supported by new pricing regulations in Hubei province [8] - The AI healthcare sector is seeing a convergence of technology and traditional pharmaceutical practices, enhancing drug development efficiency [11] - The cruise tourism initiative is part of a broader strategy to diversify offerings in response to changing consumer demands [13] - The military robotics market is expected to see increased government investment and interest, particularly in AI applications [16]