Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electricity sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The electricity sector is experiencing fundamental improvements alongside a shift in market style, highlighting the importance of strategic positioning opportunities [10][16] - Coal prices have rapidly declined to around 692 CNY/ton, creating excess opportunities in thermal power generation [3][16] - The average coal price for the year to date (as of March 14) is 745 CNY/ton, down 174 CNY/ton compared to the same period last year [16] - The report emphasizes the significance of the recent cross-regional green electricity trading achievement, marking a milestone in the establishment of a unified national electricity market [16] - The National Development and Reform Commission is accelerating the construction of the electricity spot market, aiming to establish a comprehensive national electricity market system [16] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The electricity sector index rose by 1.86%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.27 percentage points [1][51] - The report notes a significant increase in inflow and outflow at the Three Gorges reservoir, with inflow up 54.55% and outflow up 12.94% year-on-year [16][31] Key Recommendations - Focus on undervalued thermal power stocks such as Huadian International, Anhui Energy, and Huaneng International, as well as leading thermal power renovation equipment manufacturers like Qingda Environmental Protection [3] - Emphasize investments in undervalued green electricity sectors, particularly in Hong Kong-listed green electricity and wind power operators [3] - Suggested stocks include New天绿色能源 (H), Longyuan Power (H), and China Nuclear Power [3] Market Performance - The report highlights that the electricity sector has adjusted significantly, suggesting a favorable environment for investment due to market style shifts and fundamental support [16] - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance, with specific recommendations for companies based on their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power and utilities sector, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [3][20][21]. Core Insights - The power sector outperformed the broader market, with the public utility sector index rising by 2.19% and the electricity sub-sector by 2.21% during the week ending March 14, 2025 [1][7]. - Significant investments are being made in renewable energy projects, particularly in the "Shagou Desert" area, with major state-owned enterprises planning substantial capacity expansions [2][23]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the electricity spot market construction and the establishment of a unified national electricity market system [2][28]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The public utility sector index closed at 2287.91 points, up 49.11 points, while the electricity sub-sector closed at 3042.41 points, up 65.87 points, indicating strong performance compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.59% [1][7]. - Among the electricity sub-sectors, photovoltaic power generation saw a rise of 4.68%, followed by thermal services at 3.80%, and comprehensive energy services at 3.57% [14][19]. Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, the report recommends companies like Sheneng Co. and Funeng Co., while cautiously recommending Waneng Power and Huadian International [3][19]. - In the green energy sector, it suggests investing in Three Gorges Energy and keeping an eye on new energy companies like Xintian Green Energy [3][19]. - The report highlights the stable performance of large hydropower companies, recommending Changjiang Electric Power, and notes the growth potential in nuclear power with a recommendation for China Nuclear Power [3][19]. Industry Developments - The report discusses the ongoing construction of the "Shagou Desert" renewable energy base and the promotion of cross-regional energy dispatch projects to enhance energy supply security [2][22]. - It notes that Xinjiang's electricity export volume reached 126.4 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, marking a continuous increase over five years [2][23]. - The establishment of a national carbon market and the first cross-regional green electricity transaction are highlighted as significant steps towards market integration [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the semiconductor and energy sectors, highlighting their growth potential and market positioning [10][11][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of the U.S. economy despite mixed economic data, with a focus on the impact of fiscal policies under the Trump administration on market sentiment [1][20]. - It identifies significant investment opportunities in the public utility sector, particularly in hydropower and nuclear power, due to favorable market conditions and government support for green energy initiatives [9]. - The semiconductor industry is highlighted for its ongoing consolidation and the potential for domestic equipment manufacturers to benefit from increased capital expenditures by local wafer manufacturers [10][11]. Summary by Sections Macro Strategy - Recent U.S. economic data shows a mixed outlook, with non-farm employment slightly below expectations but manageable, alleviating some recession fears [1][20]. - The divergence in fiscal narratives between the U.S. and Europe is impacting market sentiment, with U.S. stocks experiencing declines amid tightening fiscal expectations [1][20]. Fixed Income - The report discusses the role of convertible bonds in managing volatility within equity portfolios, particularly during periods of market turbulence [4]. - It notes a significant drop in green bond issuance, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [5]. Industry Analysis - Public Utilities: The report recommends investments in hydropower and nuclear power due to low operational costs and strong cash flow, with specific companies like Changjiang Electric and China Nuclear Power highlighted [9]. - Semiconductor: The acquisition of Chip Source by Northern Huachuang is seen as a strategic move to enhance its market position and accelerate growth in the domestic semiconductor equipment sector [10][11]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for companies like Aobi Zhongguang in the robotics sector, projecting significant revenue growth driven by increasing demand in the service robot market [12]. - It also highlights the potential of companies like Siling Co. in the automotive bearing market, emphasizing their strong international presence and growth prospects in the aftermarket [14].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和，四川零碳工业 园区试点建设方案发布 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary ] ◼ 风险提示：需求不及预期、电价煤价波动风险、流域来水不及预期等 2025 年 03 月 11 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 2024/3/11 2024/7/10 2024/11/8 2025/3/9 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《中石油合同价微增、沿海价格下降， 中石化合同价下降，预计 2025 年城燃 采购成本下行》 2025-03-09 《《2025 年能源工作指导意见》印发， 蒙西电力现货市场转正》 | 1. 行情回顾 | | --- | | 2. 电力板块跟踪 | | 2.1. 用电:2024M1-12 全社会用电量 ...

强化能耗考核，积极稳妥推进"双碳"工作 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 ——公用事业行业周报（2025.3.3-2025.3.7） | [table_Authors] 于鸿光(分析师) | 孙辉贤(分析师) | 汪玥(研究助理) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38031730 | 021-38038670 | 021-38031030 | Table_subIndustry] [细分行业评级 | | yuhongguang025906@gtjas.co | | sunhuixian026739@gtjas.com wangyue028681@gtjas.com | | | m | | | | | 登记编号 S0880522020001 | S0880524080012 | S0880123070143 | | 本报告导读： 2025 年《政府工作报告》预期用电增速高于 GDP 增速，单位能耗考核目标强化； 指出"健全绿色消费激励机制"、"积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和"。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 公用事业《国七标准制定在即，尾气催化剂 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electricity sector [6]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced a target for renewable energy to account for 30% of computing power centers by 2026, emphasizing green and low-carbon computing. This is expected to increase the demand for renewable energy consumption in data centers, leading to sustained growth in green electricity and green certificate consumption [1][10]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the transformation of thermal power companies into renewable energy operators, recommending several companies such as Sheneng Co., Shanghai Electric, and Huaneng International [5][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From February 14 to February 21, the electricity sector (882528.WI) declined by 0.12%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.00%. Year-to-date, the electricity sector has fallen by 5.09%, while the CSI 300 index has increased by 1.11% [2][14]. - The sub-sectors of thermal power, hydropower, and gas power saw changes of -0.93%, -1.25%, and -1.07% respectively during the same period [14][22]. Coal Prices and Inventory - The spot price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao decreased by 2.67% month-on-month and by 23.64% year-on-year, with a current price of 730 RMB/ton [3][31]. - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao increased by 3.38% month-on-month and by 40.88% year-on-year, reaching 7.03 million tons as of February 21 [4][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to favor companies transitioning from thermal power to renewable energy operations, including Wanan Electric, Sheneng Co., and Huaneng International. It also recommends stable companies like China Nuclear Power and Three Gorges Energy [5][10]. - Specific recommendations include Longjiang Electric, benefiting from the injection of the Wuhai Power Station, and Huaneng Hydropower, which is expected to benefit from improving provincial market electricity prices [5][10]. Key News and Announcements - Jiangsu Province is encouraging renewable energy hydrogen production projects to participate in the electricity market, aiming for innovative management models [48]. - The Chongqing electricity spot market is set to begin trial operations on March 11, 2025, with a focus on optimizing clearing results based on real-time market conditions [48].

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the current coal price decline provides a favorable environment for thermal power companies, indicating that there is still investment value in the thermal power sector for 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The thermal power sector has shown a lackluster performance despite a significant decline in coal prices, primarily due to market preferences shifting towards growth sectors and a pessimistic outlook on future electricity prices [1][3]. - The report highlights that the annual trading results for electricity in 2025 have been lower than market expectations, but the unexpected drop in coal prices has mitigated some negative impacts on electricity prices [3][4]. - Historical data indicates that the relationship between coal prices and the thermal power industry index is not straightforward, as coal prices influence future electricity price expectations through their impact on fuel costs [1][19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Coal Price Decline and Thermal Power Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal has decreased by over 150 yuan/ton year-on-year, leading to a reduction in fuel costs for thermal power companies ranging from 11.5 to 57.3 yuan/MWh depending on the market coal share [1][12]. - Despite the favorable coal price environment, the thermal power sector has underperformed the market due to a clear investment focus on growth sectors post-Spring Festival [1][14]. Section 2: Conditions for the 2014 Power Sector Performance - The macroeconomic environment in 2014 was characterized by slowing economic growth and a transition in market liquidity from "targeted easing" to "comprehensive easing," which influenced the performance of the power sector [2][31]. - The report notes that the thermal power industry experienced a lag in electricity price adjustments compared to coal price declines, which allowed many thermal power companies to maintain high return on equity (ROE) levels during 2013-2015 [2][44]. Section 3: Investment Value of Thermal Power in 2025 - The report concludes that thermal power still holds investment value due to the upcoming performance verification period starting in March 2025, which may shift market focus back to sectors with strong earnings growth [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions, including a downward trend in 10-year treasury yields, make the thermal power sector's average dividend yield attractive [3][4]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies such as Anhui Energy, Huadian International, Zhejiang Energy, and Huaneng International as potential investment opportunities within the thermal power sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The "2025 Energy Work Guidance" has been issued, indicating a steady increase in national energy production capacity, with coal and natural gas output growing significantly. The total installed power generation capacity has reached over 3.6 billion kilowatts, with new renewable energy installations exceeding 200 million kilowatts [4][5] - The green and low-carbon transition is progressing, with non-fossil energy generation capacity accounting for approximately 60% of total installed capacity and non-fossil energy consumption reaching 20% of total energy consumption. Policies for renewable energy consumption and regulation are being improved [4] - The official launch of the Mengxi electricity spot market marks a significant development, becoming the fifth electricity spot market in China [4] Industry Data Tracking Electricity Prices - In March 2025, the average grid purchase price of electricity was 398 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 4% and unchanged from the previous month [32] Coal Prices - As of February 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao port was 690 RMB/ton, down 25.16% year-on-year and down 4.03% week-on-week [39] Water Conditions - As of February 28, 2025, the water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 162.99 meters, with inflow and outflow rates of 7700 cubic meters/second and 7620 cubic meters/second, respectively, showing increases of 28.33% and 11.89% year-on-year [48] Electricity Consumption - In 2024, the total electricity consumption was 985.21 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The growth rates for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, as well as urban and rural residential consumption, were 6.3%, 5.1%, 9.9%, and 10.6%, respectively [14] Power Generation - The cumulative power generation in 2024 was 942.1 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The growth rates for different energy sources were as follows: thermal power +1.5%, hydropower +10.7%, nuclear power +2.7%, wind power +11.1%, and solar power +28.2% [21] Installed Capacity - By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.44 billion kilowatts, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year. The new installed capacity for thermal power in 2024 was 47.44 million kilowatts, up 1.9% year-on-year [43]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on power generation assets in regions with tight supply-demand dynamics and favorable competition, particularly recommending companies like Anhui Energy and Zhejiang Energy in the thermal power sector, and China National Nuclear Power in the nuclear power sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new data centers are expected to drive an annual increase in electricity demand of 102 billion kilowatt-hours, with a total of 99.1 billion kilowatt-hours in green electricity consumption anticipated from both existing and new data centers [3][27]. - The establishment of the Inner Mongolia power market is noted as a significant step in China's electricity market reform, marking the fifth market to transition to formal operation [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of matching renewable energy sources with data center operations to meet energy consumption and carbon neutrality goals, suggesting that companies involved in renewable energy and waste-to-energy projects will benefit [3][45]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.72%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.87% during the week [1][7]. - The carbon neutrality sector decreased by 1.52%, and the environmental protection sector fell by 0.54% [1][7]. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, natural gas prices, and carbon market trends, providing insights into the current market conditions affecting the energy sector [4][47][62]. Industry News - The report notes significant developments in the energy sector, including the launch of major renewable energy projects by Huaneng Northern Company, which includes a total capacity of 7.2 million kilowatts [3]. - The report also discusses the performance of various sub-sectors within public utilities and environmental protection, highlighting the fluctuations in stock prices of leading companies [10][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on renewable energy operators expanding their data center operations, as well as companies involved in virtual power plant services and distributed energy projects [3][45]. - It suggests that waste-to-energy operators located near load centers will have greater collaboration opportunities with smaller data centers [3][46].

证券研究报告| 行业周报 2025 年 03 月 02 日 电力 煤价加速下跌重视火电超额机会，2025 能源工作强调绿色保供 本周行情回顾：本周（2.24-2.28）上证指数报收 3320.90 点，下降 1.72%，沪深 300 指数报收 3890.05 点，下降 2.22%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2752.47 点，下降 1.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.19pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜 第 15 位。 本周行业观点： 投资建议：本周煤价快速下跌至 700 元/吨附近，重视火电超额机会。市场对于 电价预期已经相对充分，区域电价风险基本出清、煤价下跌或超预期，建议关注 重点火电标的：皖能电力、申能股份、华电国际、浙能电力。推荐布局低估绿电板 块，推荐优先关注低估港股绿电以及风电运营商，建议关注新天绿色能源（H）、 龙源电力（H）、中闽能源、福能股份。把握水核防御，水电板块，建议关注长江 电力、国投电力、川投能源、华能水电；核电板块，建议关注中国核电和中国广核。 风险提示：原料价格超预期上涨；项目建设进度不及预期；电力辅助服务市场、绿 证交易等政策不及预期。 增持（维持） 行业走势 ...