RatingsDirect® 中国房地产观察：供给过剩压制复苏 2026 年 2 月 9 日 版权 © 2026 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC。版权所有。 本报告不构成评级行动。 今年中国开发商将继续迎接挑战 *指 2025 年年末待售面积相比 2021 年中国楼市进入下行期之前 10 年平均值的增幅。资料来源：国家统计局，标普全球评级。 库存六年连增 新建商品房待售面积（百万平方米） 商品房待售面积 相比行业下行前 平均值的增幅* 我们预测的 2026 年全国新建商品 房销售额降幅 我们预测的 2026 年二手住宅价格 降幅 连续6年年末待售面积同比增加 下行之前10年期间（2011-2020年） 平均值 要点速览 商品房库存积压，意味着中国房地产市场面临着崎岖的复苏之路。2025 年商品房待售面积已连续第 六年增加。供给过剩可能导致价格承压，而价格下跌又会损害购房者信心，形成了一个难以打破的恶 性循环。 主要联系人 陈令华，CFA，FRM 香港 852-2533-3539 edward.chan @spglobal.com 亚太区经济学家 高路易 香港 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry [2] Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes, with new housing transaction area down by 28% year-on-year during the Spring Festival period [19][23] - The report highlights three main issues in the real estate market: a decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [31] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of 12,627.81 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 12,094.33 billion [2] Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the real estate sector is 0.9% for one month, 3.7% for six months, and 5.7% for twelve months, while the relative performance is 3.0%, -7.9%, and -13.7% respectively [3] Sales Data - New housing transaction area in 20 cities decreased by 28% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, with a total transaction area of 181 million square meters [19] - Second-hand housing transaction area in 11 cities decreased by 22% year-on-year during the same period, with a total transaction area of 156 million square meters [23] Policy News - Local policies include a housing subsidy program in Quzhou, providing up to 80,000 yuan for families with multiple children, and new measures in Huizhou to enhance housing fund support and optimize credit policies [13][16] Company Dynamics - Longfor Group reported a contract sales amount of 24.5 billion yuan in January, with a total sales area of 300,000 square meters [17] - China Overseas Development acquired land in Hong Kong for 18.688 billion HKD, designated for residential use [18] - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 116.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes, with new housing transaction area down by 28% year-on-year during the Spring Festival period [19][23] - The report highlights three main issues in the real estate market: a decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [31] Industry Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 1,262.78 billion [2] - The sector's performance over the past month shows an absolute increase of 0.9%, but a relative decrease of 3.0% compared to the benchmark [3] Sales Performance - New housing sales in 20 cities saw a year-on-year decrease of 28%, with a total transaction area of 181 million square meters during the Spring Festival [19] - Second-hand housing sales in 11 cities also decreased by 22%, with a total transaction area of 156 million square meters [23] Policy Developments - Local governments are implementing housing subsidy policies, such as in Quzhou, where families can receive up to 80,000 yuan in subsidies for purchasing new homes [13] - In Huizhou, new policies include increased housing fund loan limits and measures to enhance housing quality and market order [16] Company Dynamics - Longfor Group reported a contract sales amount of 2.45 billion yuan in January, with a total sales area of 300,000 square meters [17] - China Overseas Development acquired land in Hong Kong for 1.8688 billion HKD, designated for residential use [18] - Vanke's stock increased by 8.4%, while Shimao Group's stock decreased by 17.7% [11][15]

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《上海三区启动住房以旧换新，推动 新房去库存 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.4 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 《2025Q4 公募基金延续低配，持股集 中度进一步提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.27 《销售延续调整态势，期待政策显效 与市场筑底 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.19 楼市延续筑底行情，政策宽松下布局时点已至 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 春节市场成交量：一手房网签偏弱，二手房基本持平 一手房方面，2026 年除夕前一周 40 城市合计一手房成交 133.68 ...

今年春节，南京105个在售新建商品住房项目售楼处正常开放，推出新春专属认购礼包、限时特惠房源、现场成交 专享优惠、到访送新年红包、签约砸金蛋赢家电、赠送年夜饭餐券等系列活动。有的售楼处还举办新春游园会、 非遗手工制作沙龙、舞狮表演、春节书画展，把售楼处变成了春节打卡地。真正点燃购房热情的，是节前密集出 台的人才房票政策。南京1月4日发布的"青年人才房票"政策明确：大专、本科、硕士、博士分别可获不低于3万 元、6万元、10万元、15万元购房补贴，公积金贷款额度同步翻倍——单人最高160万元，家庭最高200万元。各区 随后迅速出台实施细则，在市级基础上再加码扩容，并陆续发布"人才房源库"楼盘名单。 以江北新区为例，房票总额由学历补助、就业补助、多项相关补贴及高层次人才专项奖励共同叠加构成，一位博 士人才累计可获最高35.2万元房票，其中包括15万元学历补助、7.2万元租赁补贴、10万元生活补助以及3万元就业 补助。硕士、本科、大专（技工）人才则分别最高可申领18.88万元、12.16万元和6万元房票。申领流程也极为便 捷，人才通过微信小程序即可完成从申领、审批到核销的全流程操作，实现"指尖办理、一站到位"。据江北 ...

Core Viewpoint - The land market in China is undergoing a significant adjustment, with a focus on inventory reduction and optimization of land supply structures, leading to a cautious investment environment for real estate companies [2][30]. Group 1: Land Market Performance - In 2025, the total land transaction area in 300 cities decreased by 11% year-on-year, reaching approximately 10 billion square meters, marking the third consecutive year of declining transaction volume [3][4]. - The decline in land transaction area is slightly larger than that of new housing sales, indicating a continuous improvement in the supply-demand relationship within the industry [4]. - The average land transaction price increased, with the average premium rate rising to 5.3%, the highest in four years, driven by the sale of high-quality residential land [20][16]. Group 2: City-Level Analysis - The number of cities with land transaction areas exceeding 10 million square meters decreased by 40%, reflecting a proactive response to control land supply and reduce inventory [11]. - In first-tier cities, land transaction areas fell by an average of 28%, with Guangzhou experiencing the largest decline at 38% [6]. - Second-tier cities saw a significant narrowing of the decline to 2%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 13% decrease in transaction area [9][8]. Group 3: Investment Trends - In 2025, the investment from the top 100 real estate companies showed signs of weak recovery, with total land acquisition value reaching 22,614 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year [24][29]. - Central and state-owned enterprises dominated land acquisitions, accounting for over 50% of the total investment, while private enterprises showed signs of recovery with an 8% increase in land acquisition value [29][27]. - The overall land acquisition-to-sales ratio for the top 100 companies improved to 0.29, indicating a cautious return to investment levels seen in 2021 [27]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The land market is expected to stabilize further in 2026, with a focus on quality land supply and a balanced approach to new project launches [31][32]. - Investment in the real estate sector is likely to remain cautious, with a concentration on core cities and high-quality land, as companies navigate cash flow pressures and uncertain sales [34][35]. - The potential for asset-liability balance restoration in 2026 may provide structural opportunities for companies with strong resources and capabilities [34][35].

Group 1 - During the Spring Festival, several quality real estate companies in Shenzhen launched promotional activities to attract consumers, including special gifts for those staying in the city or visiting [1] - In 2025, over 10,000 new residential units are expected to be purchased by non-Shenzhen residents, with sales amounting to nearly 60 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in Shenzhen as a place to live and work [2] - The "iShenzhen" platform will provide personalized online viewing services during the Spring Festival, allowing potential buyers to filter properties based on their preferences and access virtual tours [4] Group 2 - Real estate projects such as Jindi Huanwan City and China Overseas Deyun Jiu Chapter will offer special discounts and gifts during the Spring Festival to enhance the buying experience [3] - More than 30 real estate projects in Shenzhen will remain open during the Spring Festival, utilizing both online and offline marketing strategies to serve buyers [3] - Real estate agencies like Le You Jia will also provide various promotional activities for second-hand housing during the holiday period [3]

www.ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 2026 年 2 月 联络人 作者 企业评级部 蒋 螣 027-87339288 tjiang@ccxi.com.cn 刘旭冉 027-87339288 xrliu@ccxi.com.cn 黎小琳 027-87339288 xlli@ccxi.com.cn | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 样本企业表现 | 8 | | 结论 | 12 | | 附表 | 13 | 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 房地产行业 中国房地产行业展望，2026 年 2 月 2025 年房地产行业政策力度同比减弱，但全年销售规模降幅收窄， 去库存亦取得一定进展，在商品房销售额尚未完全企稳的背景下， 供求平衡的修复仍面临挑战；2026 年预计行业销售及投资下行压力 仍存但节奏放缓，政策端或将进入常态化实施阶段，待售面积有望 出现拐点性下降，为"十五五"房地产市场触底企稳打下基础，预 计未来短期内头部房企的市场地位稳固，但行业颈部及腰部企业的 排序或 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on expected performance relative to the market benchmark [5]. Core Insights - Recent valuation recovery in real estate stocks reflects a combination of oversold conditions relative to the CSI 300 index, changes in fundamental expectations, and policy anticipations [1][3]. - The upward potential for real estate stock prices requires further support from either fundamental performance or policy implementation, with key drivers including better-than-expected transaction volumes and significant policy announcements [12][14]. - The market is currently divided between investors with optimistic views on fundamentals and those speculating on policy changes, which may lead to conflicting strategies [10]. Summary by Sections Recent Valuation Recovery - The recent increase in real estate stock prices is attributed to a recovery from oversold conditions and shifts in market sentiment regarding fundamentals and policies [1]. - Data from January 1 to February 5 shows a year-on-year decline in new home transactions by 6% and an increase in second-hand home transactions by 31%, although adjusted lunar year comparisons indicate a more significant decline [3]. Conditions for Further Price Increases - The gap between the real estate index and the CSI 300 has narrowed significantly, suggesting that without further catalysts, the potential for excess returns in the real estate sector may diminish [12]. - Future price increases will depend on exceeding expectations in fundamental performance, such as increased transaction volumes and favorable policy developments [14]. Policy Directions and Drivers - Key areas of policy focus include changes in inventory levels, loan continuation methods post "Financial 16," and the outcomes of specific corporate financing events [15]. - Potential policy measures may involve lowering mortgage rates and implementing inventory reduction strategies to stabilize housing prices [16][18]. Market Dynamics and Stock Selection - The current market trend favors companies with higher sales growth and land acquisition rates, indicating a preference for "winning" companies based on market momentum [22]. - If supportive policies are enacted, the focus may shift from "winning" companies to those with attractive valuations, while also considering companies with strong operational momentum [24]. - Specific companies to watch include those with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as those benefiting from improvements in the housing market [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Hong Kong property market is showing signs of recovery, with significant increases in transaction values for both new and second-hand residential properties [1][2] - In January, the transaction value of new residential properties more than doubled year-on-year, reaching HKD 19.2 billion, with major developers like Henderson Land and New World seeing sales growth exceeding 200% [2] - The second-hand residential market also experienced growth, with transaction volumes stable month-on-month and transaction values increasing by over 50% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The property financial environment remains moderately supportive, with new mortgage loans in December and 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 22%, and the average mortgage rate declining to 3.25% [3] - The vacancy rates for commercial properties have improved, with private office and retail property vacancy rates decreasing compared to November [3] - Retail sales have continued to recover since September, driven by financial and economic recovery, as well as an increase in tourist numbers [3]