以下文章来源于凤凰WEEKLY ，作者凯斯 凤凰WEEKLY . 有温度、有情感、有趣味 本文来自微信公众号： 凤凰WEEKLY ，编辑：章鱼，作者：凯斯，原文标题：《春节第一社交「硬 通货」，又涨价了》 每逢过年，都是一次对钱包的大考。 机票高铁的花销自不必说，光年礼一项就称得上是春节销金窟。 在今年的诸多春节销金窟中，炒货荣登刺客榜首。 办公室的小k决定带点儿炒货回老家。来到公司楼下的炒货店，她本着"各家都要考虑到的原则"拿了 七八包，到了收银台，小票上的数字让她两眼一黑。 松子，蘑菇脆，巴旦木，水果冻干...... 原本只是一样拿一点尝尝，账单居然要600多。 打开手机一查，小k发现瓜子比猪肉贵已经登上热搜了。 明明是平时节日聚会、家庭茶几上摆的常见干果，怎么一眨眼就都换上了三位数的价签？ 小k破防了，都说有钱没钱回家过年，但没人说过： 回家过年的每一步路，都是拿钱铺出来的啊。 月入几万，都不能实现「炒货自 由」？ 实际上，从两三年前开始，炒货的价格就已经开始屡屡摸高了。 高到什么程度呢？ 有人说，炒货炒货，就是一种越炒越贵的货。 狭义上，它指的是炒制出锅的瓜子栗子和花生，广义上，它还能涵盖在同一店铺售 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The January e-commerce data shows a significant increase in sales and promotional heat, driven by the successful New Year shopping festival, which has injected strong momentum into the market [5][58] - Various product categories, particularly in food and beverages, have experienced high growth rates, indicating a robust consumer demand during the festive season [14][27] Summary by Sections January E-commerce Data Review - The sales heat increased by 1.87% and promotional heat by 0.91% compared to December [5] - The New Year shopping festival, starting on January 15, successfully stimulated consumer purchasing behavior, leading to multiple sales peaks throughout the month [5] Industry Marketing Situation - The food and beverage sector saw a surge in consumer interest, with gift box products becoming a market focal point [14] - Key high-growth categories included snacks, beverages, and alcoholic drinks, with specific products like nuts and chocolates leading the sales [10][25][29] January Category Sales Overview - The sales heat for nuts and snacks grew by 286.58%, with promotional heat increasing by 32.96% [20] - The beverage category saw substantial growth, particularly in fruit juices and carbonated drinks, with some segments experiencing over 600% growth [27] February E-commerce Trend Forecast - Key marketing dates for February include Valentine's Day and the Spring Festival, with brands encouraged to launch themed products and promotions [41][45] - The report highlights the importance of targeting family gatherings and gifting needs during the festive season to drive sales [48] Monthly Rankings - The report includes a sales ranking of brands across various categories, with notable mentions in jewelry, clothing, and food products, indicating strong market competition [62][64][66]

知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2016-2025年食品制造业企业数统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市公司：黑芝麻（000716），双汇发展（000895），千味央厨（001215），青岛食品（001219），三 全食品（002216），得利斯（002330），金字火腿（002515），洽洽食品（002557），克明食品 （002661），煌上煌（002695），海欣食品（002702），麦趣尔（002719），龙大美食（002726），桂 发祥（002820） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国食品饮料制造行业发展动态及投资前景评估报告》 2025年1-12月，食品制造业企业数（以下数据涉及的企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从2011年起，规模 以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元）为11070个， 和上年同期相比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising prices of snack foods, particularly nuts and dried fruits, during the Chinese New Year, highlighting how these items have become increasingly expensive and are perceived as luxury goods by consumers [6][30]. Price Trends - Snack prices have been climbing steadily over the past two to three years, with some items now priced at three-digit figures [6][12]. - For example, prices at popular stores like Xueji have reached exorbitant levels, such as 50 RMB per pound for mango slices and 218 RMB per pound for hand-shelled pine nuts [13][18]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly willing to spend on these snacks during the festive season, viewing them as essential for family gatherings and social interactions [49][55]. - The act of purchasing these snacks is not just about food but also about facilitating social interactions and managing familial expectations during reunions [52][56]. Market Dynamics - The high prices are influenced by several factors, including reliance on imported nuts, which are affected by international supply chains and geopolitical issues [32][34]. - The snack industry is undergoing an "industrial upgrade," with stores moving from traditional markets to upscale locations, leading to increased operational costs that are passed on to consumers [37][41]. Industry Growth - The market for nuts and snacks is projected to exceed 300 billion RMB by 2024, indicating a significant growth trajectory for the industry [46]. - The rise of brands like Xueji has created a large consumer market, with their innovative product offerings driving demand and allowing for premium pricing [45][46].

Core Insights - The rising prices of snack foods, particularly nuts and dried fruits, have become a significant financial burden during the Chinese New Year, with some items costing more than traditional staples like pork [2][4][5] - The phenomenon of high snack prices is attributed to various factors, including supply chain issues, import dependencies, and a shift towards premium branding and marketing strategies in the snack industry [23][27][29] Price Trends - Snack prices have been increasing steadily over the past few years, with some items now priced at over 100 yuan per pound, reflecting a significant markup compared to previous years [5][11][15] - Specific examples of high prices include cashews at 88 yuan per pound and hand-shelled pine nuts at 218 yuan per pound, indicating a trend of premium pricing in the market [11][20] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly willing to spend on high-priced snacks during the New Year, viewing them as essential gifts and a means to facilitate social interactions during family gatherings [34][38] - The act of purchasing these snacks has become a social media phenomenon, with consumers sharing their expensive purchases online, further driving demand and brand visibility [13][20] Market Dynamics - The snack industry is experiencing a transformation, with traditional vendors evolving into upscale brands that emphasize quality and presentation, leading to higher operational costs and, consequently, higher prices [27][29] - The market for nuts and snacks is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2024, highlighting the significant growth potential within this sector [31]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a stable growth outlook for the sector [9][13]. Group 2: Core Insights - The food and beverage market in China is projected to reach a total scale of 593.67 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year sales growth of 7.8%, driven by a 6.3% increase in volume and a 1.4% rise in average price [9][13]. - Health-oriented products are leading the growth in the food and beverage sector, with consumers increasingly prioritizing quality, health benefits, and functionality in their purchasing decisions [10][17]. - The snack food market is expected to grow to 132.76 billion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of 5.8%, highlighting a significant shift towards high-protein and high-quality products [10][24]. - The beverage market is characterized by a dual structure where flavor remains the primary driver of sales, while functional and health-related attributes are gaining traction, contributing to overall market growth [11][50]. Group 3: Market Overview - The food and beverage market is experiencing a steady expansion, with significant growth in categories such as instant food, grains, and condiments, which are projected to grow by 14.5% and 13.8% respectively [13][17]. - The snack food segment is leading in sales, with beef jerky and marinated snacks showing a year-on-year growth of 13.5%, reflecting a consumer shift towards healthier and high-protein options [24][31]. - The beverage market is evolving, with a notable increase in demand for health-oriented products, including herbal and functional drinks, indicating a shift from traditional flavors to health-focused offerings [50][54]. Group 4: Emerging Trends - The trend towards health and convenience is reshaping the food and beverage landscape, with products like fresh cakes and plant-based drinks gaining popularity due to their perceived health benefits [17][40]. - The snack food market is witnessing a rise in personalized offerings, with regional and cultural specialties becoming more prominent, catering to consumer preferences for unique flavors and experiences [32][40]. - The beverage sector is moving towards a focus on functional benefits, with products aimed at specific health needs, such as digestive health and immune support, becoming increasingly popular among consumers [50][55].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Spring Festival is driving a surge in sales for leisure snacks, with strong demand for gift boxes and bulk snack packages, although the industry faces intense competition and cost pressures [1][5][6] Group 1: Sales Trends - Sales of gift boxes are booming, particularly for brands like Three Squirrels and Qiaqia Foods, with prices around 50 to 290 yuan [1][2] - Recent data indicates that the sales of "snack gift boxes" exceeded 1 billion yuan in the last 30 days, with core categories like "mountain walnuts/nuts/roasted goods" accounting for over 51.6% of sales [2][6] - Bulk snack packages are gaining popularity, with brands like Yanjinpuzi and Jinzhai Foods seeing strong sales ahead of traditional gift box sales [2][4] Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - Companies are ramping up production to meet demand, with Jinzhai Foods reporting a daily production capacity exceeding 10 million packages [4] - The industry is actively ensuring stable supply through sales forecasts and pre-fulfillment strategies, particularly for high-demand categories like gift boxes and nuts [4][5] Group 3: Pricing and Cost Pressures - Despite strong sales, companies are cautious about raising prices due to competitive pressures and rising raw material costs, which are impacting profit margins [5][6] - Three Squirrels and Qiaqia Foods have both projected significant declines in net profit for the year, attributed to increased raw material prices and structural changes in sales [5] - The industry is exploring upstream strategies to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations, such as Qiaqia Foods' trial planting of sunflower seeds overseas [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the first quarter, expecting double-digit revenue growth for many snack brands due to the favorable timing of the Spring Festival and returning consumer traffic [6]

Core Insights - The demand for snack gift boxes is surging ahead of the upcoming Spring Festival, with sales exceeding 1 billion in the last 30 days and a month-on-month growth of 383.84% [2] - Companies are leveraging a multi-brand and multi-category strategy to capture market share, focusing on innovative packaging and product offerings to meet consumer preferences [3][7] Group 1: Market Trends - The snack gift box market is a critical component of the Chinese food industry, with gift boxes accounting for 60% of sales for companies focused on this segment [1] - The overall retail sales for the Spring Festival in 2025 are projected to grow by 8.7% year-on-year, indicating a strong purchasing power among consumers [2] - The trend of combining various brands and product categories is becoming more pronounced, allowing companies to penetrate multiple consumer segments and occasions [2][3] Group 2: Company Strategies - Three Squirrels has introduced creative gift boxes, such as the "Golden Gourd" nut gift box, and expanded its offerings to include various themed gift boxes for different occasions [3] - Mondelez China has launched a "custom gift box" initiative, allowing distributors to create personalized gift boxes based on regional preferences [7] - Snack companies are increasingly collaborating with well-known brands to enhance their product visibility and appeal, as seen with Qiaqia Food's partnerships with Coca-Cola and Sprite [8] Group 3: Channel Development - Companies are adopting a multi-channel approach, integrating online and offline strategies to enhance consumer experience and drive sales [9][10] - Retailers are creating immersive experiences in physical stores, such as themed pop-up areas and interactive tasting stations, to stimulate immediate purchasing behavior [13] - The online sales channels are being optimized with tailored marketing strategies, including live streaming and social media promotions, to engage consumers effectively [9][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The snack gift box segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, becoming a long-term potential driver for the industry [14] - The overall snack market is projected to see a 3.9% sales growth, with gift boxes emerging as a significant breakthrough point for innovation and consumer engagement [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and misconceptions of expanding China's snack retail model into Southeast Asia, emphasizing that the unique conditions that allowed for the success of this model in China do not exist in Southeast Asia, leading to potential failures if the model is blindly replicated [1]. Group 1: Business Model Analysis - The core formula for China's snack retail (hard discount) is based on extreme low prices achieved through supply chain overflow, low fulfillment costs, and high turnover efficiency [3]. - The success of this model in China relies on a surplus of mature production capacity, which is absent in Southeast Asia [7]. - Southeast Asia's food industry is dominated by large corporations, making it difficult for new entrants to negotiate low prices or establish a competitive edge [10]. Group 2: Cost and Logistics Challenges - Importing products from China to Southeast Asia incurs high logistics and tariff costs, which can increase procurement costs by 30%-50% [11]. - The fragmented geography of Southeast Asia, with numerous islands, leads to high fulfillment costs and slow inventory turnover, making it difficult to maintain profitability [29]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Differences - Southeast Asian consumers prefer small packaging and low prices due to their financial constraints, which contrasts with the bulk purchasing behavior seen in China [20][21]. - The low average transaction value in Southeast Asia can hinder the ability of snack retail stores to cover operational costs, as the model relies on high turnover and sales volume [22]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Entry Barriers - The requirement for Halal certification in Indonesia and Malaysia presents significant barriers to entry for foreign snack retailers, complicating the process of introducing new products [30][32]. - The lengthy certification process can hinder the ability to quickly adapt to market trends, reducing the attractiveness of stores to consumers [36]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should focus on brand expansion rather than channel expansion, leveraging existing local distribution networks to introduce high-quality products [40]. - Local manufacturing should be prioritized to create products that cater to local tastes and price points, utilizing local resources and production techniques [41]. - Companies should be cautious of drawing parallels between different business models, as the operational dynamics of snack retail differ significantly from those of other sectors like beverage retail [43].

《抖音电商2026年货礼盒消费报告》 在极大丰富消费选择之外，直播电商以内容为纽带的核心机制，也让年货消费从单纯的"刚需采购"转变 为情感驱动的"主动种草"。置办年货，向来承载着中国人浓厚的仪式感与文化情感。线下赶集时热闹的 烟火气，本身就是"年味"的重要部分。如今，直播间通过实时呈现非遗技艺、讲述产品故事、展示风土 人情，在方寸屏幕间保留了这份"逛"与"选"的体验精髓，并将它传递给更多人。从"购买商品"到"体验 文化"，从"线下集市"到"线上漫游"，传统年味因此焕发新生，并自然引发现代消费兴趣。报告显示， 直播间已成为礼盒交易和品牌商家经营的主阵地，超70%的品牌礼盒通过直播间售出。 年关将至，买一份年货、送一份心意成为新的消费热点。近期，各大平台的年货节相继启动，其中直播 电商以其独特的内容呈现与连接方式，为传统的春节消费注入了新的时代内涵。 俗话说"衣锦还乡不如年货满筐"，春节前"备年货"是大多数人的"规定动作"。购物车里装载的，不仅是 各类商品，更是对团圆的期盼和对美好生活的向往。然而，如何"买好"年货，在过去并非易事。早年， 人们需要囤积物资；随着电商发展，选择丰富却带来了"选择困难"。此时，以"内 ...