Core Viewpoint - The "spring of consumption" is expected to re-emerge in the capital market by 2025, driven by sustained fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and the potential for funds to favor resilient consumer sectors amidst increasing market volatility and uncertainty [1] Group 1: Market Overview - As of the first quarter of this year, there are 172 LOF funds in the market, with only 16 achieving over 10% returns in the past three years, and just 11 maintaining positive returns in the first quarter of this year [2] - The dual focus on technology and consumption since the beginning of 2025 indicates a significant differentiation in fund performance based on managers' understanding of niche industries and risk management capabilities [1][2] Group 2: Fund Performance - The Hongde Fengze fund has achieved a three-year return of 13.92%, ranking 10th among actively managed LOF funds, with a first-quarter return of 7.93% placing it in the top 15% of flexible allocation funds [3] - The fund's portfolio includes a mix of new consumption brands and traditional giants, with significant holdings in companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Anta Sports [3][4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The fund manager, Ji Yu, employs a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy, focusing on stocks with low average P/E ratios, which have not exceeded 20 since the second half of 2023 [6] - The fund demonstrates a low investment concentration, with a concentration ratio of only 0.02% at the end of 2024, significantly below the industry average of 0.18% [6] Group 4: Consumer Sector Insights - The domestic consumption market is seen as having substantial potential, with a stable consumption environment and a unified market structure that supports the growth of leading consumer enterprises [9] - Despite pressures from external demand, the resilience of domestic consumption is becoming more apparent, with fund managers increasingly focusing on companies with strong brand and product positioning [8][9]

Macro Insights - The recent financial policy package has been substantial and contains many unexpected details, shifting market focus towards the implementation of incremental fiscal policies [2] - A-shares are likely to enter a strong oscillation phase, while the bond yield curve is expected to steepen before flattening [2] Industry Strategy - In May, if market sentiment declines, the top-performing sectors according to the five-dimensional industry comparison framework will be utilities, banking, construction decoration, transportation, food and beverage, and coal [3] - Conversely, if market sentiment rises, the leading sectors will include media, national defense, computer, electronics, machinery, and automotive [3] Investment Strategy - The A-share market showed a rebound in April, with internal policies and medium to long-term funding providing resilience to the index [4] - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and industries with relatively high first-quarter performance, particularly utilities, banking, construction decoration, transportation, food and beverage, and coal [4] Bond Market - A comprehensive policy package has exceeded expectations, largely due to prior preparations by monetary authorities [5] - The recent 7D OMO rate cut of 10 basis points is expected to lead to a similar decline in the LPR, effectively guiding down actual loan rates and stimulating more financing demand [5] Internet Media - The internet sector's recent adjustments are more influenced by liquidity and sentiment rather than fundamentals, with concerns over decoupling risks between China and the US [6] - Post-adjustment, a divergence is expected, with Alibaba and Tencent showing resilience due to their lower exposure to cross-border e-commerce and tariffs, respectively [6] Retail Sector - During the Labor Day holiday, key retail and catering enterprises saw a 6.3% increase in sales compared to the previous year, while Hainan's duty-free shopping revenue decreased by 7.3% [8] - Notable segments to watch include national subsidy-related categories, gold and jewelry retail, and emotional consumption [8] Real Estate - In April, the top 100 real estate companies reported a 9.2% year-on-year decline in sales, indicating a need to consolidate the stability of the housing market [9] - The cumulative sales figures for the first four months show a decline of 7.8% year-on-year, with some high-energy cities beginning to stabilize [9] Coal Industry - The decline in coal prices has led to increased performance differentiation among companies, with expectations of limited further price drops in the current market [10] - Recommendations focus on companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [10] High-end Manufacturing - The company reported a 2.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, with a significant 54% increase in net profit, driven by emerging businesses and overseas market expansion [15] - Future profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 50.0, 62.2, and 73.5 billion yuan, respectively [15] Utilities Sector - The company reported a 4.67% year-on-year decline in revenue for 2024, but a 9.14% increase in Q1 2025 revenue, indicating a recovery trend [12] - The acquisition of Yili Technology is expected to accelerate industry optimization [12] Food and Beverage - Shanxi Fenjiu achieved a total revenue of 360.11 billion yuan in 2024, with a 12.79% year-on-year growth, and a 7.72% increase in Q1 2025 [22] - Predictions for EPS from 2025 to 2027 are 10.90, 12.14, and 13.53 yuan, respectively [22]

推荐（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 整体业绩平淡，龙头强者恒强 调味品及餐饮供应链 24 年及 25 年一季报回顾 消费品/食品饮料 24 年看，整体需求弱复苏，企业普遍梳理渠道减轻库存压力。受益于成本下 行，板块毛利率改善，但竞争加剧下费用率有所提升，企业盈利分化。合并 24Q4+25Q1 看，板块受制于需求弱复苏及餐饮平淡，收入端相对承压，但海 天为代表的龙头企业率先完成调整，业绩更优。25 年看，预计成本端平稳，行 业费用投放相对稳定，若收入端加速复苏，则板块盈利能力有望进一步改善。 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 143 | 2.8 | | (%) 食品饮料 | | 沪深300 | | 总市值（十亿元） 30 | 5074.1 | 6.0 | | 流通市值（十亿 20 | 4823.6 | 6.2 | | 元） | | | 行业指数 0 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.6 5.1 8.3 相对表现 4.0 10.5 4.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 May/2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.94% year-on-year [1] - The company's cream business continues to show strong growth, with UHT cream sales exceeding 500 million yuan in 2024 [2] - The company has optimized its expense ratio significantly, with a sales expense ratio of 10.1% in Q1 2025, down from 12.1% in 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 1.118 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.99%, with a net profit of 65 million yuan compared to a loss of 85 million yuan in Q4 2023 [1] - For Q1 2025, total revenue reached 1.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.13%, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, up 15.11% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - In 2024, revenue from frozen baking, cream, fruit products, sauces, and other baking materials were 2.133 billion, 1.058 billion, 166 million, 225 million, and 226 million yuan respectively, with cream revenue growing by 61.75% [2] - The traditional pastry channel accounted for approximately 57% of revenue in 2024, growing by 15%, while the new retail channel saw a growth rate of about 20% [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.47%, while it decreased to 29.99% in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material costs [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 6.99%, increasing to 8.45% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 332 million, 386 million, and 442 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, translating to EPS of 1.96, 2.28, and 2.61 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22, 19, and 17 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

证券代码：300973 证券简称：立高食品 公告编号：2025-032 债券代码：123179 债券简称：立高转债 立高食品股份有限公司 关于公司为全资子公司提供担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 （含新增子公司）提供担保额度合计不超过人民币（或等值外币）8亿元（含）。具体内 容详见公司于2025年3月12日在巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于2025年度 对外担保额度预计的公告》（公告编号：2025-014）。 为满足生产经营和发展需要，广东立高食品营销有限公司（以下简称"立高营销"） 向招商银行股份有限公司广州分行申请总额为人民币 2 亿元的授信额度，并签署《授信 协议（适用于流动资金贷款无需另签借款合同的情形）》（以下简称《授信协议》）。公 司就上述融资事项签署了《最高额不可撤销担保书》，为立高营销在《授信协议》项下的 所有债务提供担保，担保最高限额为人民币 2 亿元，担保方式为连带责任保证担保。本 次被担保方及担保金额在上述审批额度范围之内。 | | | 担保 | 被担保方最 | ...

| 保荐人名称：中信建投证券股份有限公司 上市公司简称：立高食品 | | --- | | 保荐代表人姓名：翁嘉辉 联系电话：020-38381063 | | 保荐代表人姓名：周祎飞 联系电话：020-38381429 | | 现场检查人员姓名：翁嘉辉、汤慕峰 | | 现场检查对应期间：2024 年 | | 现场检查时间：2025 年 4 月 16 日-17 日、22 日-23 日 | | 一、现场检查事项 现场检查意见 | | （一）公司治理 是 否 不适用 | | 现场检查手段：查阅公司章程及各项公司治理制度，查阅公司三会会议资料及信 | | 息披露文件，对相关人员进行访谈等。 | | 1.公司章程和公司治理制度是否完备、合规 √ | | 2.公司章程和股东会、董事会规则是否得到有效执行 √ | | 3.股东会、董事会会议记录是否完整，时间、地点、出席人 √ | | 员及会议内容等要件是否齐备，会议资料是否保存完整 | | 4.股东会、董事会会议决议是否由出席会议的相关人员签 √ | | 名确认 | | 5. 公司董事、高级管理人员是否按照有关法律法规和本所 √ | | 相关业务规则履行职责 | | 6.公 ...

中信建投证券股份有限公司关于 立高食品股份有限公司 2024 年度持续督导跟踪报告 | 保荐人名称：中信建投证券股份有限公司 | 上市公司简称：立高食品 | | --- | --- | | 保荐代表人姓名：翁嘉辉 | 联系电话：020-38381063 | | 保荐代表人姓名：周祎飞 | 联系电话：020-38381429 | 一、保荐工作概述 | 项 目 | 工作内容 | | --- | --- | | 1.公司信息披露审阅情况 | | | （1）是否及时审阅公司信息披露文件 | 是 | | （2）未及时审阅公司信息披露文件的次数 | 0 次 | | 2.督导公司建立健全并有效执行规章制度的情 | | | 况 | | | （1）是否督导公司建立健全规章制度（包括但 | 是 | | 不限于防止关联方占用公司资源的制度、募集 | | | 资金管理制度、内控制度、内部审计制度、关 | | | 联交易制度） | | | （2）公司是否有效执行相关规章制度 | 是 | | 3.募集资金监督情况 | | | （1）查询公司募集资金专户次数 | 每月 1 次 | | （2）公司募集资金项目进展是否与信息披露文 | 是 | ...

3、本机构及本人自愿接受中国证监会按照《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办 法》的有关规定采取的监管措施。 二、保荐机构基本情况 1、保荐机构名称：中信建投证券股份有限公司 关于立高食品股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 保荐总结报告书 中信建投证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信建投证券"或"保荐机构"或 "保荐人"）作为立高食品股份有限公司（以下简称"立高食品"或"公司"或 "上市公司"）首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市持续督导保荐机构，持续督导 期自 2021 年 4 月 15 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 日。现持续督导期届满，根据《证券 发行上市保荐业务管理办法》等相关规定，出具本保荐总结报告书。 一、保荐机构及保荐代表人承诺 1、保荐总结报告书和证明文件及其相关资料的内容不存在虚假记载、误导 性陈述或重大遗漏，保荐机构及保荐代表人对其真实性、准确性、完整性承担法 律责任。 2、本机构及本人自愿接受中国证监会对保荐总结报告书相关事项进行的任 何质询和调查。 中信建投证券股份有限公司 2、注册地址：北京市朝阳区安立路 66 号 4 号楼 3、主要办公地址：北京市朝阳区景辉街 16 号院 1 号楼泰康集 ...

泛餐饮连锁业态：单店营收仍有缺口，但有企稳的趋势 1)收入端：必选属性更强的巴比食品、锅圈表现好于卤味企业。单店营收方面，大部分公司相比2020、 2021年仍有缺口，其中锅圈的单店营收2024年同比转正。2)利润端：2024年巴比食品和紫燕食品归母净 利率实现同比提升，拆解下来主要来自费用端的缩减。绝味食品、煌上煌由于费用端支出较多，利润端 未能释放成本红利。 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2025Q1以来消费品赛道市场关注度和估值水位都有提升， 该行维持看好内需消费的观点。1)零食是相对不受宏观周期影响的行业，行业也具备结构性成长机会， 后续从产业逻辑和企业的生命周期来看，该行推荐三类公司：一是以门店为基础的万辰集团，万家门店 之后还有业态延伸、利润率提升的逻辑。二是有能力成为全品类、全渠道的平台型公司。三是在品类、 渠道、内部管理等方面具备边际改善的公司。2)速冻和连锁业态都属于典型的顺周期板块，和下游餐饮 业态的修复关联度较高，基本面上该行认为很多公司已经有触底企稳的迹象，其次板块整体估值偏低 位，有上修空间。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 休闲零食：行业具备结构性成长机会，机遇诸多 行业的成长性 ...

Macro Economic Insights - The impact of tariffs is significant, with estimates suggesting a GDP impact of 1-2 percentage points under scenarios of 54%-145% tariff increases [5] - The U.S. economy is facing a high risk of mid-term recession, with Q1 GDP growth turning negative at -0.3% [15] - Domestic consumption during the May Day holiday showed improvement in volume but not in price, indicating a recovery in consumer activity [17] Industry Analysis Utilities Sector - The electricity supply-demand balance is shifting towards a more relaxed state, with a focus on stable profit-generating varieties [36] - In 2024, total electricity consumption reached 9.87 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [36] - Power generation costs are expected to decrease due to falling coal prices, enhancing profitability for power companies [37] Retail Sector - Retail companies are under pressure, with overall revenue declining by 1.8% in 2024 and 13.3% in Q1 2025 [44] - The jewelry sector faced significant declines, with revenues down 25.9% in Q1 2025 [44] - High-growth segments such as cross-border e-commerce are performing well, with revenue growth of 28.8% in Q1 2025 [44] Chemical Industry - The chemical manufacturing sector saw revenues of 91,986.4 million yuan in 2024, a 4.2% increase, but profits fell by 8.6% [53] - The basic chemical sector reported a revenue increase of 5.8% in Q1 2025, with net profits rising by 11.8% [54] Textile and Apparel Sector - The main domestic sales demand is weak, leading to performance pressure, but there is optimism for growth in external sales [58] - The company expects revenue growth driven by successful overseas customer expansion, with a focus on diversifying procurement channels [59] Financial Engineering - In May 2025, the top recommended stocks included Gree Electric, Kying Network, and Zijin Mining, indicating a shift towards value-oriented investments [29][30] - The overall performance of the recommended stocks showed a decline in market capitalization but an increase in valuation levels, suggesting a transition to a value style [30]