截至2026年1月29日 14:27，有色金属ETF(512400)一度涨超4%，现涨2.35%，盘中换手12.52%，成交 57.37亿元，市场交投活跃。跟踪指数中证申万有色金属指数成分股铜陵有色上涨10.06%，西部黄金上 涨10.01%，湖南黄金上涨10.01%，云南铜业，盛和资源等个股跟涨。 有色金属ETF(512400)，场外联接(A类：004432；C类：004433)。 2025年全年金价涨幅达67%，创近年新高，主要驱动力来自央行持续购金、美元走弱、关税与贸易风险 上升以及强劲的期权市场活动；其中，新兴市场央行正加速减持美债、增持黄金，波兰央行已批准150 吨黄金采购计划。展望2026年，世界黄金协会指出，尽管短期或受波动率上行影响出现宽幅调整，但中 长期黄金走势仍将由结构性因素主导，包括地缘冲突常态化、美联储政策独立性受质疑及全球货币体系 信任重构等核心逻辑未变。 1月29日午后，金、银、铜全线大涨，现货黄金强势逼近5600美元关口，再创新高。白银连续主力合约 日内触及涨停，沪铜主力合约突破11万元/吨，日内涨幅达8%，同样创历史新高。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属 ...

Group 1 - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector experienced a significant rebound after an initial drop, with the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) rising over 3% in the afternoon session, completing an adjustment with a net subscription of 1 million shares, amounting to over 200 million CNY [1] - The trading volume exceeded 800 million CNY, with a turnover rate surpassing 10%, indicating active market participation [1] - Key stocks in the sector saw substantial gains, with companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Northern Copper, and Shenghe Resources hitting the daily limit, while Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper rose over 7% and 9% respectively [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) attracted significant capital inflow, with over 480 million CNY in the last 5 days and over 1.5 billion CNY in the last 20 days, bringing its total scale to 7.348 billion CNY [2] - The precious metals market remains strong, with COMEX gold prices surpassing 5600 USD, reaching a record high, and the Shanghai gold futures contract breaking through the 1200 CNY per gram mark, with a monthly increase of over 25% [2] - The metal industry is entering a weak supply cycle, with global mining supply expected to remain rigid until 2028, while demand is anticipated to rise due to green energy transitions and new production capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, several actively managed equity products under foreign public funds achieved significant excess returns, with clear positioning in technology growth and resource sectors, reflecting strong stock selection and allocation capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Many foreign public fund products recorded impressive gains throughout 2025, with standout performances in their categories. For instance, BlackRock Advanced Manufacturing A rose by 63.34%, Fidelity Low Carbon Growth A increased by 44.27%, Schroders China Power A gained 47.94%, Allianz China Select A surged by 65.83%, and Robeco Resource Select A achieved a remarkable 97.28% increase, showcasing the strong grasp of foreign institutions in structural market conditions [3]. Group 2: Portfolio Structure - The portfolio structure of these foreign public funds remains centered on manufacturing, while maintaining a high focus on technology growth and resource opportunities. Specifically, BlackRock's holdings are heavily concentrated in manufacturing, with significant investments in technology stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Cambrian, and Luxshare Precision in the fourth quarter [3][4]. - Fidelity Low Carbon Growth also prioritizes manufacturing, with key holdings including Xinyi Semiconductor, Information Development, and Shanghai Fudan, balancing low-carbon transformation and technology growth [3]. - Robeco Resource Select has a more diversified portfolio, including significant allocations to materials and mining sectors, with major investments in Zijin Mining, Chipbond Technology, and China Aluminum, indicating a clear focus on commodities and related industry chains [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The latest quarterly reports from various foreign public funds indicate a dual approach in investment strategy: a sustained optimism towards cyclical resource sectors and a selective approach within the technology sector. The ongoing economic transformation, technological advancements, and supportive policies in China continue to underpin the value reassessment of Chinese stocks [5][6]. - Robeco Resource Select has optimized its portfolio structure by shifting towards cyclical sectors while reducing exposure to black metals and early-cycle segments, and increasing chemical sector allocations, while also maintaining and slightly increasing investments in upstream industries related to the current technology innovation cycle [6]. - Schroders China Power maintains a high equity position while rebalancing its structure, transitioning from previously favored technology sectors to undervalued non-bank financials and chemicals [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, there is a strong belief in the continued value reassessment of Chinese stocks, with high-quality technology assets expected to remain core to this process, potentially yielding significant excess returns [7].

Core Insights - The main focus of the news is the significant outflow of capital from various stocks, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics. Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Outflow - Industrial Fulian experienced the highest capital outflow of 5.09%, totaling 5.444 billion yuan [1][2] - Sunshine Power saw a capital outflow of 1.558 billion yuan with a decline of 4.92% [1][2] - China Aluminum had a capital outflow of 1.452 billion yuan, but its stock price increased by 3.49% [1][2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals recorded a capital outflow of 1.204 billion yuan with a notable increase of 10.06% in stock price [1][2] - Semiconductor company SMIC faced a capital outflow of 1.109 billion yuan, with a decrease of 4.2% [1][2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumer electronics sector, represented by Industrial Fulian and Luxshare Precision, showed significant capital outflows of 5.444 billion yuan and 1.068 billion yuan respectively [1][2] - The photovoltaic equipment sector, represented by Sunshine Power, experienced a capital outflow of 1.558 billion yuan [1][2] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including China Aluminum and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, had mixed results with capital outflows of 1.452 billion yuan and 1.204 billion yuan respectively [1][2] - The semiconductor sector, represented by SMIC, faced a capital outflow of 1.109 billion yuan [1][2] Group 3: Additional Stock Movements - Other notable stocks with significant capital outflows include: - Luoyang Molybdenum with 1.080 billion yuan and a slight decrease of 0.04% [1][2] - Hunan Silver with a capital outflow of 1.062 billion yuan and an increase of 4.95% [1][2] - Xiamen Tungsten with a capital outflow of 0.821 billion yuan and a decline of 7.11% [1][3] - The electronics components sector, represented by Huadian Co. and Shenghong Technology, also saw capital outflows of 0.895 billion yuan and 0.740 billion yuan respectively [1][3]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 宁德时代（300750） 盈利韧性强，份额提升，龙头地位稳固 2026 年 01 月 29 日 买入（维持） ◼ 风险提示：政策不确定，需求低于预期。 证券分析师 曾朵红 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 400,917 | 362,013 | 428,249 | 578,071 | 708,193 | | 同比（%） | 22.01 | (9.70) | 18.30 | 34.98 | 22.51 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 44,121 | 50,745 | 70,020 | 91,363 | 113,644 | | 同比（%） | 43.58 | 15.01 | 37.98 | 30.48 | 24.39 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 9.67 | 11.12 | 15.34 | 20.02 | 24.90 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 35.17 ...

Group 1 - The industrial non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant gains, with the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index (H11059) rising by 3.28% as of January 29, 2026, and individual stocks like Shenghe Resources and Yunnan Copper seeing substantial increases [1] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF Wan Jia (560860) has reached a new high in scale at 16.478 billion yuan and a total of 7.784 billion shares, with a recent net inflow of 696 million yuan over the past five days [1] - Tight copper supply and declining processing fees for copper concentrate, combined with strong long-term demand from AI and power grid construction, are expected to support copper prices, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment projected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [1] Group 2 - The global base metals market is undergoing a structural reshaping due to strong demand from green industries such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power, while supply is constrained by insufficient long-term investment and declining resource grades [2] - Despite the strong performance of the non-ferrous sector reflecting high growth over the past two years, core non-ferrous metal varieties have not seen significant valuation premiums, indicating potential for future price increases as domestic fundamentals may experience mild recovery [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index (H11059) account for 56.18% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [2]

宁德时代（300750） 盈利韧性强，份额提升，龙头地位稳固 2026 年 01 月 29 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 400,917 | 362,013 | 428,249 | 578,071 | 708,193 | | 同比（%） | 22.01 | (9.70) | 18.30 | 34.98 | 22.51 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 44,121 | 50,745 | 70,020 | 91,363 | 113,644 | | 同比（%） | 43.58 | 15.01 | 37.98 | 30.48 | 24.39 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 9.67 | 11.12 | 15.34 | 20.02 | 24.90 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 35.17 | 30.58 | 22.16 | 16.98 | 13.65 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare metals sector is experiencing significant price increases and investment interest, particularly in lithium and rare earth elements, driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 29, 2026, the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index (930632) rose by 1.16%, with notable gains from stocks such as Sanhua Wisdom (+15.43%) and Galaxy Magnetics (+13.74%) [1] - The Rare Metals ETF (561800) saw a half-day increase of 0.73%, with a weekly cumulative rise of 7.90% as of January 28, 2026, leading among products tracking the same index [1] - The latest scale of the Rare Metals ETF reached 280 million yuan, marking a three-month high, with shares totaling 228 million, also a one-month high [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate reached 87,000 yuan per ton, a 19% increase quarter-on-quarter, with profits per ton rising to 8,000 yuan for companies with over 50% self-owned resources [2] - If lithium carbonate prices stabilize at 150,000 yuan per ton in 2026, leading companies in lithium salt business could contribute over 9 billion yuan in profits [2] - The price increase of rare metals is attributed to a combination of resource self-sufficiency, cost control efficiency, and technological advancements, indicating a value reassessment process rather than a mere cyclical fluctuation [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In a tight supply-demand balance, macro variables such as monetary policy and supply disruptions are becoming key factors influencing metal prices [2] - Lithium carbonate inventory has begun a destocking process, and expectations of reduced export tax rates for batteries have led to a preemptive demand effect, exceeding seasonal expectations [2] - The recovery of prices in the rare earth sector is supported by policy backing and pre-holiday stocking demand, reinforcing its investment value as a strategic resource [2] Group 4: Investment Tools - The Rare Metals ETF (561800) tracks the CS Rare Metals Index, which primarily allocates to lithium carbonate, minor metals, and rare earth sectors, with lithium content between 30% and 40%, making it the highest lithium-containing index available for investors [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for 2026-2027 by 10% to 16%, expecting an average price of $4,978 per ounce in 2026 and $5,585 per ounce in the first half of 2027 [1] - The firm also increased its copper price forecast for 2026 by 7% to $12,200 per ton [1] - The earnings forecasts for Chinese copper and gold mining stocks for 2026-2027 were raised by 9% to 33%, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum being the preferred stocks due to benefiting from rising commodity prices and simultaneous growth in copper and gold production [1] Group 2 - Zijin Mining's recurring earnings forecast for 2026-2027 was increased by 14% to 18%, with the target price for H-shares raised from HKD 39.5 to HKD 52 and A-shares from CNY 38 to CNY 50, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum's recurring earnings forecast for 2026-2027 was raised by 20% to 24%, with the target price for H-shares increased from HKD 21.5 to HKD 27 and A-shares from CNY 21.5 to CNY 28, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the fluctuation in the rare metals market, particularly focusing on lithium prices and the performance of key companies in the sector [1][2] - As of January 20, the spot price of lithium cobalt oxide remained stable at 396.5 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 10.5 yuan/kg (2.72%) and a monthly increase of 33 yuan/kg (9.08%) [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate has seen a significant weekly increase of 8.24%, indicating strong price resilience amid production disruptions in key mining areas in Jiangxi [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities predicts that the average price of lithium carbonate will reach 87,000 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, representing a 19% quarter-on-quarter increase, which will significantly contribute to earnings elasticity [1] - Ganfeng Lithium's profit per ton in Q4 is expected to rise to 8,000 yuan/ton, with self-owned resources contributing approximately 14,000 yuan/ton [1] - If lithium carbonate prices maintain at 150,000 yuan/ton in 2026, Ganfeng Lithium's lithium salt business is projected to contribute over 9 billion yuan in profits [1] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, and others, accounting for 59.54% of the index [2] - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) tracks the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index, providing a convenient tool for investing in the rare metals sector [2] Group 4 - Investors can also explore investment opportunities in the rare metals sector through the Rare Metals ETF linked fund (014111) [3]