三季报解读&Q4 需求强势上行 20251102 摘要 2025 年第三季度，航空业受益于旺季需求扩张，整体修复趋势强劲。 国航利润低于预期，收入增速最弱；海航扣除汇率影响后增速领先；华 夏航空保持强劲增长，春秋和吉祥航空承压，大行与小行分化明显。 国际航线是 2025 年业绩修复的关键，一季度国际旅客总量超 2019 年 同期。中国航司市场份额提升至 65%以上，受益于国际线扩张。东航在 日韩航线优势明显，吉祥航空通过宽体机投放远程航线，春秋航空通过 运力扩容实现增长。 海航国际线表现强劲，利润释放显著，通过运力结构调整提升单位票价 和收入质量。南航受益于国内旅客量增速领先，业绩表现最佳；国航和 吉祥航空因国内旅客量下滑导致业绩低迷。 各航空公司单位 RPK 收益普遍下降。吉祥航空远程航线投产及国际客占 比提升导致票价上升，但收入总量萎缩。春秋航空票价优势减弱，利润 弹性未能充分释放。华夏航空因市场不同，表观增速无法准确反映真实 情况。 Q&A 近期航空公司三季报的主要表现如何？行业整体情况和个股表现有哪些亮点和 不足？ 根据最新披露的三季报，航空行业在第三季度的营收增速为 2.3%，利润增速 为 5.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [15] Core Insights - The transportation industry shows signs of recovery with various segments experiencing different levels of performance, driven by factors such as fuel cost reduction, normalization of travel demand, and strategic adjustments by companies [2][41] Summary by Sections Aviation - In Q3 2025, listed airlines saw significant improvement in fuel costs, leading to a notable divergence in profitability among carriers. The international growth rate outpaced domestic, with a 19% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 22% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) compared to the same period in 2019 [6][23] - The average fuel price decreased by 11% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability for airlines like China Eastern and Southern, while others faced challenges due to maintenance issues [31][37] Airports - Listed airport companies benefited from the normalization of travel, with gradual increases in passenger flow and stable costs leading to improved profitability. For instance, Shanghai Airport reported a 52.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [7][45][47] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector saw improvements in franchise profitability, while direct operations faced pressure due to increased strategic investments aimed at solidifying core business foundations. The overall market trend indicated a "weak volume, stable price" scenario [8][49] Cross-Border Logistics - Cross-border logistics continued to face external pressures, with significant declines in shipping prices due to geopolitical factors. However, cargo airlines maintained relatively stable profits due to fleet expansions [9][10] Bulk Supply Chain - Despite weak domestic demand, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies since July has led to improved operational efficiency and profitability for leading supply chain companies [10] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector showed signs of recovery, with oil and bulk shipping profitability improving. Container shipping, while still under pressure, showed better-than-expected performance due to seasonal demand and easing trade tensions [11][12] Ports - Port operations benefited from increased imports of bulk commodities, leading to year-on-year growth in performance, particularly in dry bulk and container segments [12][45] Highways - The highway sector experienced a recovery in traffic volume in Q3 2025, resulting in positive year-on-year profit growth for major listed companies [13] Railways - Railway passenger and freight demand showed slight growth, with companies diversifying into non-coal freight and logistics services to enhance profitability [14]

长江商报消息●长江商报记者 徐佳 值得关注的是，在民航强势复苏的背景下，三大航司中的中国国航再次获得大股东真金白银支持。10月30日晚 间，中国国航抛出定增预案，公司拟向控股股东中国航空集团有限公司（以下简称"中航集团"）及其全资子公司 定增募资不超过200亿元，全部用于偿还债务和补充流动资金。 由于航空业具有显著的资本密集型特征，保持合理的资本结构是航司实现长期稳健发展的重要基础。直接获得大 股东注入资金，中国国航的资金实力将得到提升。 长江商报记者粗略计算，包括本次定增在内，三年间，中航集团方面合计将向中国国航注资超333.12亿元。 燃油成本下降毛利率集体回升 在油价下行与需求改善的共同驱动下，三大航司集体实现盈利。 数据显示，2025年前三季度，中国国航实现营业收入1298.26亿元，同比增长1.31%；净利润18.7亿元，同比增长 37.31%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润（以下简称"扣非净利润"）16.44亿元，同比增长279.95%。 同期，南方航空实现营业收入1376.65亿元，同比增长2.23%；净利润和扣非净利润分别为23.07亿元、14.23亿元， 同比增长17.4%、345.77%。中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major domestic airlines in China have collectively turned profitable in the first three quarters of 2023 after five consecutive years of losses, indicating a significant recovery in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines achieved profitability in the first three quarters of 2023, marking a turning point in the industry's recovery [1] - Hainan Airlines topped the profitability rankings with a net profit of 2.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.93% [1] - China Southern Airlines led the three major airlines with a net profit of 2.307 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.40% [1] - China Eastern Airlines reported a net profit of 2.103 billion yuan, successfully turning around from losses [1] - Air China achieved a net profit of 1.870 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.31% [1] Group 2: Operational Metrics - International routes have become the core driver of profitability for the three major airlines [1] - Passenger turnover for international routes significantly outpaced that of domestic routes: Air China's international and domestic passenger turnover increased by 14.9% and 1.2% respectively; China Eastern Airlines saw increases of 24.16% and 6.08%; China Southern Airlines reported increases of 19.54% and 4.10% [1] - China Southern Airlines' international business performance is particularly notable, with its international seat occupancy rate and revenue per seat kilometer exceeding pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [1]

10月31日中国国航（601111）收盘报7.86元，跌8.07%，当日成交2.51亿元，已连续2日下跌。前10个交 易日主力资金累计净流出4.88亿元，股价累计下跌7.2%；融资余额累计减少2168.27万元，融券余量累 计减少2.18万股。近90天内有10家机构给予评级，其中买入评级5家，增持评级5家，机构目标均价为 9.18元。 截至2025年10月31日收盘，中国国航(601111)报收于7.86元，下跌8.07%，换手率2.16%，成交量250.84 万手，成交额19.9亿元。 当日关注点 资金流向方面，10月31日主力资金净流出2.91亿元，占总成交额14.64%；游资资金净流入1.74亿元，占 总成交额8.73%；散户资金净流入1.18亿元，占总成交额5.91%。 股本股东变化 中国国际航空股份有限公司拟向特定对象发行A股股票，发行对象为控股股东中航集团及其全资子公司 中航控股，募集资金总额不超过200亿元，以现金全额认购。发行数量不超过3,044,140,030股，不超过 发行前总股本的30%。当前公司总股本为17,448,421,000股，中航集团直接和间接合计持股约53.71%。 发行完成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The three major airlines in China have collectively achieved a profit of 6.28 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking their first overall profit since reducing losses in 2023, driven by market demand recovery, international route expansion, and lower oil costs [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines reported net profits of 1.87 billion yuan, 2.103 billion yuan, and 2.307 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - In Q3 alone, Air China reported a net profit of 3.676 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.31%, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines saw increases of 34.37% and 20.26% in net profit, reaching 3.534 billion yuan and 3.84 billion yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The overall revenue growth for the three airlines was modest, with Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines reporting year-on-year revenue increases of 1.31%, 3.73%, and 2.23% [3]. Market Demand and Operations - The recovery in market demand, particularly in international routes, has been a significant factor in the airlines' improved performance, with a notable increase in passenger numbers [5][6]. - In Q3, the total number of civil aviation passengers reached 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with international passenger transport growing by 13.3% [6]. - China Eastern Airlines has notably expanded its international routes, with a 20.08% increase in capacity and a 24.16% rise in passenger turnover from January to September [7]. Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to maintain a growth trend, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with an anticipated 5% increase in passenger volume [8]. - The airlines are focusing on reducing losses during the off-peak season and enhancing international route recovery, with strategies to optimize production organization and improve revenue management [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, slightly below expectations due to higher-than-expected non-fuel costs [1][3] - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 129.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, up 37.3% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to raise no more than 20 billion yuan through a private placement to optimize its capital structure, with full subscription from its controlling shareholder and related parties, indicating confidence in future growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company recorded total operating revenue of approximately 49.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit of 3.68 billion yuan, down 11.3% year-on-year [1][2] - The company's fleet size at the end of Q3 2025 was 946 aircraft, with a net increase of 16 aircraft in the first three quarters [2] - The company's gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 13.8%, despite a decline in unit revenue due to falling ticket prices [3] Revenue and Cost Analysis - In Q3 2025, the unit revenue per RPK was 0.607 yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, while the unit revenue per ASK was 0.499 yuan, down 1.0% year-on-year [3] - The estimated unit fuel cost per ASK decreased by 11% year-on-year due to falling oil prices, while non-fuel costs increased by 3% [3] Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth in demand and a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at approximately 0.6 billion, 5.5 billion, and 9.1 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on the anticipated recovery in the industry [5]

中国国航(601111.SH)今日低开低走，现跌7.37%报7.92元，成交额15.42亿元（昨日4.23亿元），总市值1382亿元。中国国航发布2025年第三季度报告，前三 季度实现营业收入1298.26亿元，同比增长1.31%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为18.70亿元，同比增长37.31%。第三季度实现营业收入490.69亿元，同比增 长0.90%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为36.76亿元，同比下降11.31%。(格隆汇) ...

Core Insights - The major domestic airlines in China have collectively turned profitable in the first three quarters of 2025 after five consecutive years of losses, indicating a significant recovery in the industry [1][2][4] - Hainan Airlines leads the profitability among private carriers with a net profit of 2.845 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.93% [3] Group 1: Major Airlines Performance - China Southern Airlines reported a net profit of 2.307 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.40% [2] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a net profit of 2.103 billion yuan, successfully turning around from losses [2] - Air China recorded a net profit of 1.870 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.31% [2] Group 2: International Routes as Growth Drivers - International routes have become the core driver of profitability for the three major airlines, with passenger turnover growth significantly higher than domestic routes [2] - Air China's international and domestic passenger turnover growth rates were 14.9% and 1.2%, respectively [2] - China Eastern Airlines reported growth rates of 24.16% for international and 6.08% for domestic routes, while China Southern Airlines had 19.54% and 4.10% respectively [2] Group 3: Private Airlines Performance Disparity - Hainan Airlines topped the profitability chart among private airlines, while Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines faced profit declines of 10.32% and 14.28%, respectively [3] - Juneyao Airlines experienced a significant drop in third-quarter net profit, decreasing by over 25% year-on-year [3] - The decline in performance is attributed to increased competition in the domestic market, characterized by rising volume but falling prices [3] Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Improvement - The overall supply-demand relationship in the civil aviation industry has improved, with a total of 1.51 million flights in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [4] - Passenger transport volume reached 210 million, up 3.9% year-on-year, with international passenger transport volume increasing by 13.3% [4] - The overall passenger load factor reached 85.9%, a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point, with domestic routes achieving a record high load factor of 87.3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - 中信海直 is a leading player in China's general aviation market, with a strong focus on safety operations and comprehensive service capabilities [1] Group 1: Company Overview - 中信海直 was established on February 11, 1999, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on July 31, 2000, with its registered and office locations in Guangdong Province [1] - The company operates in the transportation sector, specifically in aviation, and is involved in various business segments including offshore oil, port pilotage, land aviation, aviation maintenance, and financial leasing [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, 中信海直 reported a revenue of 1.633 billion yuan, ranking 8th in the industry, significantly lower than the top players like 南方航空 with 137.665 billion yuan and 中国国航 with 129.826 billion yuan [2] - The net profit for the same period was 238 million yuan, also ranking 8th, compared to 南方航空's 3.996 billion yuan and 海航控股's 2.976 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, 中信海直's debt-to-asset ratio was 28.40%, an increase from 18.40% year-on-year, which is significantly lower than the industry average of 75.72% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 24.68%, up from 21.59% year-on-year, exceeding the industry average of 12.66% [3] Group 4: Management and Shareholder Information - The chairman, 张坚, has a rich background with experience in various financial institutions, while the general manager, 闫增军, saw a salary increase of 200,000 yuan in 2024, totaling 2.54 million yuan [4] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 8.95% to 125,000, while the average number of shares held per shareholder increased by 9.82% to 6,208.2 [5] Group 5: Business Highlights - 中信海直's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.633 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.05%, with a net profit of 245 million yuan, up 25.53% [6] - The company achieved significant milestones in eVTOL logistics, including the first offshore oil platform material transport and a low-altitude logistics route [6] - 中信海直 is positioned as a potential key partner in the low-altitude economy, having signed strategic cooperation agreements with local governments and leading eVTOL companies [6]