江苏恒立液压股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东权益变动触及 1%刻度的 证券代码：601100 证券简称：恒立液压 公告编号：2025-028 二、 权益变动触及 1%刻度的基本情况 江苏恒立液压股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 9 月 25 日收到 控股股东申诺科技（香港）有限公司（以下简称"申诺科技"）的《关于减持恒立 液压股份比例达到 1%刻度的告知函》，2025 年 9 月 8 日至 2025 年 9 月 25 日期 间，申诺科技通过大宗交易和集中竞价方式减持公司股份 10,456,808 股，占公司 股份总数的 0.78%，申诺科技及其一致行动人持有的公司股份比例从 66.74%变 动至 65.96%，权益变动比例触及 1%刻度情形。具体情况如下： 提示性公告 申诺科技（香港）有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 一、 信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 1.身份类别 | | √控股股东/实际控制人及其一致行动人 | | --- | --- | | 投资者及其一 ...

9月25日，恒立液压大宗交易成交63.6万股，成交额5520.48万元，占当日总成交额的6.51%，成交价86.8 元，较市场收盘价93.34元折价7.01%。 | 交易日期 | 证券商称 | 证券代码 | | | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 | | 类出雪业部 | 是否为专场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-09-25 | 恒立液压 | 601100 | 86.8 | 2656.08 | 30.6 | 会司工程度高 | 有限公司上海分公 | 품 | | 2025-09-25 | 恒立液压 | 601100 | 86.8 | 1302 | 15 | ្រី​ការ​ក្រុង​នេះ​ | 星博彩刷手机版 | Ka | | 2025-09-25 | 恒立液压 | 601100 | 86.8 | 868 | 10 | 用品、日本最 | 有限公司主持分裂 | 중 | | 2025-09-25 | 恒立液压 | 601100 | 86.8 | 434 | રે | 第2次第四次 | 有限公 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Hydraulic's stock has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 82.93%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hengli Hydraulic reported a revenue of 5.171 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.00% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.429 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.97% [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 25, Hengli Hydraulic's stock price was 95.25 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 334 million yuan and a market capitalization of 127.713 billion yuan [1]. - The stock experienced a net outflow of 20.9841 million yuan from main funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 43,800, a rise of 4.26% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 4.09% to 30,647 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Hengli Hydraulic has distributed a total of 5.775 billion yuan in dividends, with 2.708 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth largest circulating shareholder, holding 103 million shares, a decrease of 185,000 shares from the previous period [3]. - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF increased their holdings, while Huaxia CSI 300 ETF entered as a new shareholder with 4.9937 million shares [3].

国元证券近日发布机械行业周报：2025年9月15日至9月19日，上证综指上涨-1.30%，深 证成指上涨1.14%，创业板指上涨2.34%。其中申万机械设备上涨2.23%，相较沪深300指数 跑赢2.67pct，在31个申万一级行业中排名第5。细分子行业来看，申万通用设备/专用设备/ 轨交设备Ⅱ/工程机械/自动化设备分别涨1.56%/1.14%/-1.56%/6.10%/2.93%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 报告要点： 机械设备板块：当前时点，出口端我们认为无论从供给端还是需求端看国内龙头企业仍 具备较强竞争优势。据中国工程机械工业协会对叉车主要制造企业统计，2025年8月当月销 售各类叉车118087台，同比增长19.4%。其中国内销量70174台，同比增长19.3%；出口量 47913台，同比增长19.6%。2025年1—8月，共销售叉车976026台，同比增长12.9%；其中国 内销量616256台，同比增长11.3%；出口359770台，同比增长15.7%。我们看好后续工程机 械行业仍将维持稳步增长态势。 投资建议 低空经济：基建方面，我们建议关注深城交、苏交科、华设集团及纳睿雷达；整机方 面，建议关注 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations last week, with the STAR 50 index rising the most by 3.63%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell the most by 1.04% [2] - As of September 23, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 240.90 billion yuan, an increase of 24.19 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average margin trading balance per investor increased to 1,332,814 yuan, up by 15,686 yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Insights Steel Industry - The release of the growth stabilization plan for the steel industry is expected to support short-term demand due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises [5] - The plan emphasizes precise control of production capacity and quality improvement, which may enhance the competitive landscape and optimize product structure [6] - Future demand in shipbuilding and construction steel sectors is anticipated to be boosted, along with export demand [6] Copper Industry - Tight copper ore supply is expected to support copper prices, with domestic growth policies and the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle likely to bolster demand [7] - The "anti-involution" policy may improve the copper smelting and processing landscape [7] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is seeing improved margins due to new alumina project capacities, with the "anti-involution" policy expected to gradually enhance the supply landscape [7] - Demand is anticipated to improve with domestic growth policies and the U.S. rate-cutting cycle [7] Lithium and Cobalt Industries - The lithium market faces pressure from oversupply despite improving demand in the energy storage sector [6] - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to maintain a tight supply situation, potentially strengthening cobalt prices in the short term [8] Rare Earth Industry - Demand for rare earths is expected to be supported by domestic export control relaxations and high overseas smelting costs [7] - The development of humanoid robots and new energy sectors is anticipated to provide new momentum for demand [8] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries, recommending stocks such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) and Zijin Mining (601899) for "overweight" ratings [8] - The humanoid robot sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with significant investments expected to accelerate production [10]

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Hydraulic's stock has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 79.83%, despite a recent decline in the last five trading days [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hengli Hydraulic achieved operating revenue of 5.171 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.00% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.429 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.97% [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 24, Hengli Hydraulic's stock price was 93.64 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 125.554 billion yuan [1]. - The stock experienced a trading volume of 599 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.49% on the same day [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 5.9862 million yuan, with significant buying and selling activities noted [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 43,800, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 4.09% to 30,647 shares [2][3]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 103 million shares, a decrease of 185,000 shares from the previous period [3]. Dividend Distribution - Hengli Hydraulic has cumulatively distributed 5.775 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.708 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][10][29] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is in its early stages, with significant advancements expected. Companies like Figure and Tesla are leading the way, and there are long-term investment opportunities in this space [2][18] - Microsoft is set to invest $30 billion in AI infrastructure in the UK, indicating strong demand for AI-driven cloud infrastructure [3][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying key suppliers and companies with strong market positions in the humanoid robot and AI infrastructure sectors [2][8] Summary by Sections Key Events - Figure completed a $1 billion Series C funding round, achieving a post-money valuation of $39 billion [1][18] - Microsoft announced a $30 billion investment in AI infrastructure in the UK, reflecting ongoing high demand for AI capabilities [3][19] Industry Dynamics - The humanoid robot sector is seeing rapid advancements, with various companies making significant progress in technology and applications [4][5] - Governments and tech giants are expected to maintain high levels of investment in AI infrastructure over the coming years [3][5] Company Dynamics - Key companies to watch include Figure, Tesla, and Microsoft, with a focus on their roles in advancing humanoid robotics and AI infrastructure [2][3][4] - Notable companies mentioned for investment opportunities include 飞荣达, 龙溪股份, and 汇川技术, among others [2][8][10] Investment Insights - For humanoid robots, focus on suppliers with strong market positions and those involved in key components like joints and sensors [8][10] - In AI infrastructure, attention should be given to companies involved in AI liquid cooling, power generation, and cooling systems [8][10]

Summary of Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic - **Industry**: Heavy Machinery - **Market Cap**: Rmb130 billion / US$18.3 billion - **Shares Outstanding**: 1,305 million - **Current Share Price**: Rmb99.87 (as of 18 September 2025) - **12-Month Rating**: Buy - **12-Month Price Target**: Rmb115.00 (previously Rmb84.00) [7][20] Key Points Industry Dynamics - **Demand Recovery**: The domestic construction machinery market in China is expected to enter an upcycle in 2025, with domestic sales of construction machinery rising by 21.5% YoY in the first eight months of 2025 [10][14]. - **Excavator Sales**: Hengli's production scheduling for excavators was strong, driven by improving demand from domestic OEMs and increased overseas market share [3][10]. Financial Performance - **Earnings Growth**: EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been raised by 8-11% due to stronger growth assumptions in the excavator cylinder and pump & valve segments [2][17]. - **Revenue Projections**: Revenue for 2025 is projected at Rmb10,266 million, with a CAGR of 21% expected from 2025-2027 [6][18]. - **Profitability Metrics**: EBIT margin is expected to improve from 26.9% in 2025 to 30% in 2027, with ROIC projected to rise from 32.6% to 37.7% during the same period [6][21]. Product Segments - **Excavator Business**: Revenue from excavators is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2025-2027, with significant contributions from the cylinder and pump & valve segments [27]. - **Screw Products**: The ball screw and roller screw segments are anticipated to become significant growth drivers, with the ball screw expected to contribute 11% of total revenue by 2029E [4][15]. Valuation Changes - **Valuation Methodology**: The valuation method has shifted from PE to SOTP (Sum of the Parts) to better reflect the potential of the screw businesses [19]. - **Price Target Adjustment**: The price target has been lifted to Rmb115.00, implying a 42x PE for 2026E, which is higher than the average of peers in the humanoid robot sector [20][21]. Risks and Considerations - **Geopolitical Risks**: There is uncertainty regarding construction machinery exports to the US and EU due to potential trade restrictions [10]. - **Market Competition**: Hengli is ranked as a top competitor in the industry, but there are concerns about the fundamentals of lower-ranked companies like Dingli [10][14]. Additional Insights - **Technological Advancements**: Hengli is focusing on technological strengths to capitalize on the humanoid robotics market, although this segment is still in early development [15][16]. - **Market Share Gains**: Continued share gains in the cylinder and pump & valve markets are expected, with potential breakthroughs in the screw businesses not fully priced into the current valuation [2][14]. Conclusion Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic is positioned for strong growth in the heavy machinery sector, driven by recovering demand, robust financial performance, and strategic advancements in product offerings. The company's valuation reflects optimism about its future earnings potential, particularly in the excavator and screw product segments.

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing Industry - In August, domestic sales of engineering machinery showed resilience during the off-season, with significant recovery in non-excavator categories and strong export performance [2] - The report recommends key manufacturers such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, Shantui, and China Longgong, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [2] Group 2: Real Estate Market - Continuous policy benefits in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have led to increased new home transactions, with Shanghai's new home transaction volume rising by 62.5% post-policy implementation [3][4] - The top three new home transaction amounts in Shanghai from January to August 2025 were recorded by Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land [3] Group 3: Steel Industry - Xianglou New Materials, a leading company in precision stamping, is expected to benefit from the rising demand for precision steel in high-end manufacturing sectors such as automotive and bearings [5] - The company is also expanding into materials for humanoid robot components, with projected net profits of 239 million, 280 million, and 336 million yuan for 2025-2027 [5] Group 4: Construction Industry - Zhongfu Shenying has shown significant improvement in profitability, achieving its first profit in a year during Q2 2025, driven by stable product prices and increased sales [6] - The net profit forecasts for Zhongfu Shenying have been adjusted to 125 million yuan for 2025, 157 million yuan for 2026, and a new estimate of 215 million yuan for 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - In August 2025, domestic excavator sales showed resilience during the traditional off-season, with a significant recovery in non-excavator categories [3][4]. - The report highlights a robust growth trend in domestic demand for construction machinery, supported by government policies and infrastructure investments [5][10]. - The electric loader segment is experiencing substantial growth, with sales increasing by 159.4% year-on-year in August 2025, indicating a shift towards electrification in the industry [7][8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 16,523 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with domestic sales at 7,685 units, up 14.8% [3][14]. - Non-excavator machinery categories also showed strong performance, with loaders up 18.3%, graders up 16.1%, and truck cranes up 28.2% [3][14]. Government Support and Policy - The government plans to issue long-term special bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan, which is expected to boost infrastructure investment and, consequently, machinery demand [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing implementation of new urbanization strategies and infrastructure projects, which will sustain demand for construction machinery [5]. Export Trends - Excavator exports in August 2025 reached 8,838 units, marking an 11.1% increase year-on-year, with a total of 73,553 units exported from January to August, up 12.8% [6][14]. - The report notes opportunities in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East for machinery exports, despite challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [6]. Electrification and Innovation - The electric loader sales reached 2,477 units in August 2025, with an electrification rate of 26.2%, reflecting a significant increase in the adoption of electric machinery [7][35]. - The report suggests that the trend towards green and electric machinery will enhance revenue and profit margins for leading manufacturers [8]. Major Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost machinery demand, potentially reaching 120-180 billion yuan in equipment needs [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and XCMG, as well as component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for these companies [10][11].