证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 AIDC与电力设备2026年度投资策略 国内需求确定性夯实，出海与AIDC发展空间可期 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 电力设备新能源 · 电力设备 投资评级：优于大市 | 证券分析师：王蔚祺 | 证券分析师：王晓声 | 证券分析师：袁阳 | | --- | --- | --- | | 010-88005313 | 010-88005231 | 0755-22940078 | | wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn | wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn | yuanyang2@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520080003 | S0980523050002 | S0980524030002 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 u "十四五"电力设备行业复盘：网内外需求景气共振，龙头企业出海加速 "十四五"以来，在新能源装机放量带动下，电源投资高速增长；电网投资保持稳健增长，但增速显著低于电源投资。在电源和电网投资带动下，"十四五"国内电力设备需求呈现网内外景 气共振态势。网内市场方面，变压器、组合电 ...

| 全国企业信用查询 | 解放时代新能源科技有限公司 | × 查一下 | | --- | --- | --- | | 基本信息 69 | 法律诉讼 3 经营风险 | 经营信息 32 | | 法定代表人 | 登记状态 乔燕南 | 存续(在营、开业、 | | | 注册资本 | 49067.860347万元 | | 组织机构代码 MACAEEKY-8 | 工商注册号 | 130192000037506 | | 企业类型 其他有限责任公司 | 营业期限 | 2023-03-01 至 2073 | | 人员规模 少于50人 | 参保人数 | 38 (2024年报) 应 | | 所属地区 | 河北省石家庄市正定县 登记机关 | 自贸试验区正定片区 | | 国标行业 | 节能技术推广服务(M7514) V 英文名 | Jiefang Times New [ | | 注册地址 | 中国（河北）自由贸易试验区正定片区园博园大街19号河北出版传媒创意中心 | | | 经营范围 | 一般项目：技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广; 生产测试设备销售;试验机销售;新能源汽车废旧动力蓄电池回收及梯次利用 附件销售 ...

2月2日，中证新能源汽车指数（399976.SZ）走势震荡。相关ETF方面，Wind显示，截至当天收盘，新 能源车ETF基金（516660）近120日涨幅超36%；成分股方面，天华新能、特锐德、汇川技术等当日涨 幅居前。 消息面上，据智通财经，马斯克宣布已实现干电极电池的规模化生产，标志着锂电池制造技术的重大突 破。该工艺由马斯克在社交平台披露，称其难度极高，是工程与供应链团队及合作伙伴共同努力的成 果。特斯拉回应称，干电极技术可显著降低生产成本、能源消耗和工厂复杂性，同时提升生产可扩展 性。 东兴证券表示，锂电产业链已走出周期底部，需求持续增长，价格企稳回升，部分环节利润向上，供应 紧张迹象显现，整体景气度持续回升，正迎来基本面反转。电池环节议价能力强，盈利能力最优，材料 环节中供需格局优化、具备提价弹性的环节以及新技术产业化相关领域值得关注。固态电池等新技术产 业化进程提速有望形成持续催化。 中银证券表示，新能源车政策支持加速产业升级，动力电池技术突破推动性能提升，新能源发电装机量 持续增长，卫星与海上风电项目拓展清洁能源应用场景，储能机制完善保障电网稳定性，氢能产能翻番 彰显未来发展潜力，核聚变技术突破 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the release of a notification regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism for power generation, increasing the coal power recovery ratio to 50%, enhancing revenue certainty [4] - It forecasts an addition of 315 GW of solar and 119 GW of wind power capacity in 2025, with a total installed capacity of 3.89 billion kW by the end of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [4] - The average electricity purchase price in January 2026 decreased by 8% year-on-year [4] - The report emphasizes the need for investment in green energy, coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and solar assets, recommending specific companies for investment [4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report notes a stable growth in electricity consumption, with a total of 9.46 trillion kWh from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [13] - Cumulative power generation in 2025 reached 9.72 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [23] - The report tracks the average electricity purchase price, which was 374 RMB/MWh in January 2026, down 8% from the previous year [38] Power Generation - The report indicates that coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were 692 RMB/ton as of January 30, 2026, showing a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [44] - The inflow and outflow rates at the Three Gorges Reservoir were 7460 m³/s and 9230 m³/s respectively, with year-on-year increases of 65.8% and 11.7% [51] - The report highlights the significant growth in renewable energy, with solar and wind power installations increasing by 315 GW and 119 GW respectively in 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on green energy investments, with specific recommendations for companies such as Longyuan Power, China Nuclear Power, and others in the renewable sector [4] - It also emphasizes the transformation potential in coal power and the benefits of hydropower due to low costs and strong cash flow [4]

企查查APP显示，近日，鞍山智创特来电新能源科技有限公司成立，注册资本2000万元，经营范围包 含：电动汽车充电基础设施运营；集中式快速充电站；机动车充电销售；充电桩销售等。企查查股权穿 透显示，该公司由特锐德（300001）旗下特来电新能源股份有限公司等共同持股。 （原标题：特锐德等在鞍山成立新公司，含物联网业务） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 28.05 CNY and a fair value of 34.67 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company plans to issue H shares to accelerate overseas expansion and enhance R&D investments, aiming to establish a global smart manufacturing base and develop high and low voltage direct current power supply equipment for data centers [6]. - The company focuses on smart box-type power equipment and electric vehicle charging networks, with significant market presence in public charging facilities, holding an 18.88% market share [6]. - The company has been actively winning overseas projects, including a 700 million CNY high-voltage mobile substation for Saudi Arabia's national grid, which supports long-term performance [6]. - The company has accumulated SST technology, expected to provide integrated solutions for data centers, with plans to launch a 1.0 product by 2027 [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.13 CNY in 2025, 1.39 CNY in 2026, and 1.84 CNY in 2027, with a reference P/E ratio of 25x for 2026, leading to a fair value of 34.67 CNY per share [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 14,602 million CNY in 2023 to 25,094 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 25.6% in 2023 and 24.1% in 2027 [2][9]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 2,047 million CNY in 2023 to 3,809 million CNY in 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise from 491 million CNY in 2023 to 1,942 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 80.4% in 2023 and 32.6% in 2027 [2][9]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 7.3% in 2023 to 17.1% in 2027 [2][9]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 23,877 million CNY in 2023 to 34,241 million CNY in 2027 [7][9].

Macro Strategy - The IPCA model shows better application effects in the domestic credit bond market compared to the US market, with a Sharpe ratio consistently above 1.45 and above 2.2 from May to December 2025 [1][13] - The strategy exhibits asymmetric risk/reward characteristics, with 75% of sample dates showing positive excess credit returns, and a maximum excess return of 0.13% from January 2024 to December 2025 [1][13] - The practical operability of the strategy is strong, allowing for investment in bonds with similar risk characteristics even when specific bonds are not available in the secondary market [1][13] Fixed Income Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of key industries, including new pillar industries, future industries, traditional industry upgrades, infrastructure construction, green transformation, and consumer upgrades, which are expected to receive policy support and financing breakthroughs [2][14] - A total of 1,098 bond-issuing entities align with the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a total bond scale of approximately 10.8 trillion yuan, primarily rated AAA and concentrated in East and North China [2][14] - The participation of bond-issuing entities in the six key industries shows significant differentiation, with infrastructure and new pillar industries leading in both the number of issuers and bond scale [2][14] Industry Insights - The public utility sector is expected to benefit from deepened electricity reforms, with recommendations to focus on green electricity, thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and the valuation of photovoltaic and charging pile assets [7] - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to experience a spring consumption surge, particularly in snacks, dining, and seasonal beverages, with a positive outlook for Q1 2026 due to favorable market conditions [7] - Companies like KaiGe Precision Machinery and HeMai Co. are positioned to benefit from the growing demand in AI computing and energy storage, with projected profit growth in the coming years [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that high payload capacity and reusability are driving down rocket launch costs, with the demand for propellants and launch-specific gases remaining rigid, leading to a long-term increase in value and market share [1] - The Falcon 9 rocket's single launch cost for propellants and specific gases is estimated at approximately $800,000, with the overall rocket cost decreasing from $50 million to $15 million due to reusability [1] - The demand for propellants and specific gases is becoming the most stable and predictable value segment in the rocket launch industry, with a recommendation for Jiufeng Energy to establish a specialized brand in aerospace propellant supply [1] Group 2 - The national winter electricity load has surpassed 1.4 billion kilowatts for the first time, reaching a peak of 1.417 billion kilowatts, with daily electricity consumption exceeding 30 billion kilowatt-hours during winter [1] - The average national grid purchase electricity price in January 2026 has decreased by 8% year-on-year, while the price of thermal coal has dropped by 9.03% week-on-week [1] - The total electricity consumption from January to November 2025 reached 9.46 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with various sectors showing different growth rates [1] Group 3 - The investment suggestions indicate that the deepening of electricity reform will lead to a significant revaluation of the power sector, with a focus on green electricity, thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and solar assets [2] - Recommendations include companies such as Longyuan Power, China Nuclear Power, and Yangtze Power, highlighting their potential for growth and value appreciation in the evolving energy market [2] - The emphasis is on the market-driven development of renewable energy and the revaluation of solar and charging station assets, suggesting a focus on companies like Nanfang Energy and Longxin Technology [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a robust recovery in 2026, with a significant increase in both supply and demand, driven by enthusiasm from leading A-share companies to list in Hong Kong, including trends like spin-off listings and H-share returning to A-share markets [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Market Trends - As of January 27, 2026, 12 companies have listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with over 300 companies having submitted listing applications, marking a substantial increase compared to previous years [1]. - The number of active IPO applications from A-share companies has increased nearly fourfold in 2025 compared to 2024, with over 110 applicants from the A-share market [1][2]. - The quality and scale of A-share companies applying for Hong Kong listings have improved, with most companies having a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion yuan, such as 汇川技术 (over 200 billion yuan) and 德赛西威 (approximately 77 billion yuan) [2]. Group 2: Industry Distribution - The companies planning to list are primarily leaders in niche sectors, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as new energy, biomedicine, and advanced manufacturing [2]. - Notable companies in the new energy sector include 汇川技术, 正泰电器, and 鹏辉能源, while the biomedicine sector features leaders like 信立泰, 海特生物, and 仙乐健康 [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The trend of spin-off listings has gained momentum, with over 10 A-share companies' subsidiaries listing in Hong Kong since 2025, and this trend is accelerating in 2026 [3]. - A dual listing trend is emerging, with several Hong Kong-listed companies initiating "return to A-share" plans, exploring new paths for "A+H" listings [4]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has expanded its recognition of overseas exchanges, now including 20 foreign exchanges from 18 countries, enhancing the market's diversity [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - UBS forecasts that the IPO financing scale in Hong Kong could exceed 300 billion HKD in 2026, with the number of new listings expected to reach between 150 and 200 [2]. - The Hong Kong IPO market is entering a positive cycle of supply and demand, with expectations for further growth in both the number and scale of IPOs in 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing demand for rocket launch services driven by high payload capacity and reusability, which are key factors in reducing costs. The demand for propellant and launch gases is expected to remain rigid, with their value and market share projected to increase over the long term. The economic viability of rocket launches is becoming a crucial factor for the transition to high-density and standardized launches [4]. - The national winter electricity load has surpassed 1.4 billion kilowatts for the first time, reaching a peak of 1.417 billion kilowatts, with daily electricity consumption exceeding 30 billion kilowatt-hours during winter [4]. Industry Data Tracking - **Electricity Prices**: The average grid purchase price in January 2026 decreased by 8% year-on-year, averaging 374 RMB/MWh [38][44]. - **Coal Prices**: As of January 23, 2026, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 685 RMB/ton, down 0.29% year-on-year and 1.44% week-on-week [45]. - **Water Conditions**: As of January 23, 2026, the water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 169.85 meters, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 15.8% and 12.8% year-on-year, respectively [52]. - **Electricity Consumption**: From January to November 2025, total electricity consumption reached 9.46 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [13]. - **Power Generation**: Cumulative power generation from January to November 2025 was 8.86 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [23]. - **Installed Capacity**: As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.52 billion kilowatts, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [46]. Investment Recommendations - **Green Energy**: The report suggests focusing on companies like Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and Three Gorges Energy, with a strong recommendation for Longjing Environmental Protection due to the easing of constraints on consumption, pricing, and subsidies for renewable energy [4]. - **Thermal Power**: Companies such as Huaneng International and Huadian International are recommended for their reliability and flexibility in transitioning [4]. - **Hydropower**: Longjiang Power is highlighted for its low-cost benefits and strong cash flow capabilities [4]. - **Nuclear Power**: China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are recommended due to their growth potential and expected increases in profitability and dividends [4]. - **Solar Assets and Charging Stations**: Companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Technology are suggested for their potential value reassessment in the market [4].