债券代码：127084 债券简称：柳工转2 证券代码：000528 证券简称：柳 工 公告编号：2025-53 广西柳工机械股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 | 项目 | 本报告期 | | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 | 盈利：118,023.71 万元–127,859.02 | 万元 | 盈利：98,353.09 万元 | | 股东的净利润 | 比上年同期增长：20%–30% | | | | 归属于上市公司 | 盈利：109,003.44 万元–118,838.75 | 万元 | | | 股东扣除非经常 | 比上年同期增长：21%–32% | | 盈利：90,260.84 万元 | | 性损益的净利润 | | | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利： 0.5845 元/股–0.6332 元/股 | | 盈利：0.5041 元/股 | 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 本次业绩预告未经过会计师事务所审计。 第 1 页，共 2 页 1、业 ...

柳工（000528）公告，预计2025年上半年净利润为11.8亿元–12.79亿元，比上年同期的9.84亿元增长 20%–30%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [8] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic sales of excavators and loaders, with excavator sales in June 2025 reaching 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and loader sales reaching 12,014 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [5][7] - The domestic excavator market shows a strong recovery, with a 22.9% year-on-year increase in sales during the first half of 2025, driven by ongoing infrastructure investments and government policies supporting equipment upgrades [7] - Export growth is notable, with excavator exports in June 2025 increasing by 19.3%, reflecting a recovery in the external trade environment and expanding into emerging markets [7] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In June 2025, a total of 18,804 excavators were sold, with domestic sales of 8,136 units (up 6.2%) and exports of 10,668 units (up 19.3%) [7] - For the first half of 2025, total excavator sales reached 120,520 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, with domestic sales growing by 22.9% [7] Loader Sales - In June 2025, loader sales totaled 12,014 units, with domestic sales of 6,015 units (up 13.6%) and exports of 5,999 units (up 9.11%) [5] - The first half of 2025 saw total loader sales of 64,769 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [5] Market Trends - The report notes a strong recovery in domestic demand for excavators, supported by ongoing infrastructure investments and government policies aimed at replacing old equipment [7] - The trend towards electric loaders is evident, with 3,049 electric loaders sold in June 2025, achieving an electric penetration rate of 25.38% [7] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong brand recognition, comprehensive product matrices, efficient cost management, and robust R&D capabilities, such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acquisition of Jiangsu Changling Hydraulic Co., Ltd. by He Xin Ting Tao and Cheng Lian Shuang Ying, highlighting the strategic implications for the company and the hydraulic industry as a whole [1][2]. Company Overview - Jiangsu Changling Hydraulic Co., Ltd. was established in December 2006 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in March 2021, with stock code 605389. The company specializes in hydraulic components, precision castings, and reduction gears, serving various industries including construction machinery, energy extraction, and automotive manufacturing [2]. - The company is recognized as a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprise and has multiple production and R&D bases. It holds over a hundred effective patents and has developed several proprietary products [2]. Acquisition Details - He Xin Ting Tao and Cheng Lian Shuang Ying plan to acquire a total of 43,211,714 shares of Changling Hydraulic, representing 29.99% of the company's total shares. Additionally, a public tender offer for 17,290,448 shares (12.00% of total shares) will be made at a price of 36.24 yuan per share, with total funding not exceeding 626,605,835.52 yuan [1]. - Upon completion of the acquisition, the acquirers and their concerted parties will hold up to 60,502,162 shares, accounting for 41.99% of the total shares, leading to a change in the actual controller of the company to Hu Kangqiao [1]. Industry Context - The hydraulic industry is experiencing a potential recovery, with signs of improvement in the construction machinery sector. The article notes a significant increase in excavator exports, which rose over 70% this year, despite a 13-month decline in domestic sales [3]. - The industry is transitioning to the "National IV" emission standards starting December 1, indicating regulatory changes that may impact production and sales dynamics [3]. Market Dynamics - The article highlights a positive outlook for the engineering machinery industry, with improved operating rates in February and expectations of a "warm" market environment. The increase in credit in January also suggests a potential recovery in domestic demand [6]. - Major players in the industry, such as Caterpillar, are approaching cyclical turning points, which may influence market sentiment and investment strategies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The excavator sales in China showed significant growth in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations, with a total of 120,520 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [1] Sales Performance - In the first half of the year, domestic sales reached 65,637 units, up 22.9%, while exports totaled 54,883 units, marking a 10.2% increase [1] - In June alone, excavator sales reached 18,804 units, a 13.3% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 8,136 units (up 6.2%) and exports at 10,668 units (up 19.3%) [3] Market Trends - After a brief decline in May, domestic excavator sales rebounded in June, supported by accelerating second-hand machine exports and policy-driven demand [2] - The construction machinery industry is experiencing a recovery, with the real estate sector's negative impact on excavator sales diminishing and infrastructure investment remaining resilient [3] Export Dynamics - The export value of China's construction machinery in May was 36.168 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, with a total export value of 165.91 billion yuan from January to May, also up 10.2% [4] - Emerging markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa are driving demand, with Chinese equipment's cost-performance advantage facilitating market expansion [4] Industry Outlook - Major construction machinery companies are optimistic about the market recovery, with expectations of stable growth in domestic and overseas markets [5][7] - The industry is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, driven by infrastructure investments, new urbanization, and the increasing penetration of renewable energy products [9]

Domestic Financial Market - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance announced a 2% increase in basic pensions for retirees in 2025 [4] - The Ministry of Natural Resources reported that 38 new mineral sites were discovered in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with non-oil and gas mineral exploration investment reaching 6.693 billion yuan, up 23.9% year-on-year [4] Industry Updates - In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, with significant performance in the new energy vehicle sector, related stocks include SAIC Motor (600104) and Seres (601127) [5] - Several silicon wafer companies have raised their prices, with price increases ranging from 8% to 11.7% for different sizes of wafers, related stocks include TCL Zhonghuan (002129) and Jiangxi Green Energy (601012) [5] - The engineering machinery industry has shown signs of recovery, with expectations for domestic demand to maintain a double-digit growth rate for the year, related stocks include XCMG Machinery (000429) and LiuGong (000528) [5] Company Focus - Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379) expects a year-on-year net profit growth of 147%-172% in the first half of 2025, driven by a significant increase in the average price of fluorinated refrigerants [6] - TCL Technology (000100) anticipates a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 81%-101%, with the semiconductor display business net profit increasing by over 70% year-on-year [6] - Inner Mongolia Huadian (600863) plans to purchase 70% equity of Zhenglanqi Wind Power and 75.51% equity of Northern Dulun from Northern Company [6] - Jiangfeng Electronics (300666) intends to raise no more than 1.95 billion yuan through a private placement for the industrialization project of ultra-high-purity metal sputtering targets for large-scale integrated circuits [6] Market Review and Outlook - On July 10, the market opened slightly lower but quickly rebounded, with major stocks leading the index to rise, closing with all three major indices up, and the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3,500 points [7] - The real estate, diversified finance, mineral products, and warehousing logistics sectors saw significant gains, while bank stocks continued to perform strongly, with the four major banks reaching historical highs [7] - The recent market rebound has primarily involved low-position sectors, with ongoing rotation among sectors being a key characteristic of the current market phase [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has maintained a steady upward trend since June 23, with recent daily highs indicating strong upward momentum [7]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The sales of various excavators reached 18,804 units in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with domestic sales of 8,136 units (up 6.2%) and exports of 10,668 units (up 19.3%) [1] - In the first half of 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.8%, with domestic sales of 65,637 units (up 22.9%) and exports of 54,883 units (up 10.2%) [1] - The domestic excavator sales in June showed a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, rebounding by 7.7 percentage points compared to previous values, driven by accelerated second-hand exports and a low base from the previous year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The construction machinery industry is expected to maintain stable growth in excavator sales, with domestic earth-moving equipment projected to achieve double-digit growth for the year [2] - The demand for excavators is shifting towards recovery, particularly in the mining sector and major water conservancy projects, while the demand for small excavators is slowing down [2] - The government plans to issue long-term special bonds and increase local government special bonds to stimulate infrastructure investment, which is expected to boost downstream equipment demand [5][6] Group 3: Company Performance - Zoomlion (000157) anticipates that domestic sales will enter a growth trajectory, expanding its business from domestic markets to global markets across engineering, agricultural, and mining machinery [3] - Sany International (00631) reported a revenue of 5.876 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, with net profit rising by 23.2% [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business, particularly in emerging regions, while also enhancing its product offerings in earth-moving, agricultural, and mining machinery [7]

Macro Dynamics - The mutual visa exemption agreement between China and Malaysia will take effect on July 17, 2025, allowing holders of valid Chinese and Malaysian passports to stay for up to 30 days without a visa, with a cumulative stay of no more than 90 days within 180 days [1] Space Exploration - China plans to launch the Chang'e 7 lunar probe around 2026, focusing on environmental and resource exploration in the Moon's South Pole-Aitken Basin, particularly searching for water ice to support future lunar base construction [2] Trade Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's criticisms regarding China's market access and trade practices, emphasizing China's commitment to high-level opening and the positive progress in China-EU trade relations [3] Engineering Machinery Industry - The China Construction Machinery Industry Association reported that excavator sales reached 120,500 units in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. The domestic demand for earth-moving equipment is expected to maintain double-digit growth throughout the year [5] Financial Institutions - China Pacific Insurance announced that Tian Geng has been approved to serve as the company's vice president [7] - Guizhou Bank has received approval to absorb and merge with Tongren Fengyuan Rural Bank, which will lead to the latter's dissolution as a legal entity [9] - Huatai Life announced that Niu Zengliang will take over as the company's general manager starting July 10, 2025 [10] Market Data - As of July 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48%, with significant gains in the real estate sector and a total market turnover of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [11] - The financing balance of the two markets increased by 3.842 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting a balance of 932.96 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange reporting 916.856 billion yuan [12] Company Dynamics - Sanmei Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 948 million to 1.042 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 146.97% to 171.67% due to rising prices of fluorinated refrigerants [14] - Great Wall Military Industry anticipates a net loss of 25 million to 29.5 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to unfulfilled orders and increased R&D expenses [15] - XINWANDA plans to launch its first-generation all-solid-state battery product in 2026 and a second-generation product in 2027 [16] - Alibaba's cross-border e-commerce platform AliExpress has launched a "one-hour delivery" service in the UK, focusing on snacks, beverages, and daily necessities [17]

Group 1 - The total sales of excavators in China reached 120,500 units in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [1] - The domestic demand for earthmoving equipment is expected to maintain steady positive growth in the second half of the year, driven by mining, water conservancy projects, and equipment renewal policies, with an annual growth rate likely to remain above double digits [1] - The overall overseas demand is expected to decline, but there are regional differences in demand trends [1] Group 2 - The recovery trend in the industry has begun to transmit from excavators to non-excavator segments, with domestic sales expected to enter a growth track under the macro background of strengthening domestic demand [1] - The mining segment's production capacity has tripled compared to the beginning of the year, and the company is optimistic about the growth potential in emerging industries such as agricultural machinery and mining machinery in overseas markets [1]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations to September. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.89 basis points to 4.346% during the week [1][15][17] - The ISM services PMI returned above the expansion line, reflecting strong economic data, while the unemployment rate decreased, contributing to a positive market sentiment [1][15][17] - The signing of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) increased the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion, which may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading pattern [1][15][17] Fixed Income - In the week of June 30 to July 4, 12 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 34.961 billion yuan, an increase of 3.531 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 56.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.3 billion yuan from the previous week [4] Industry Analysis Robotics and Automation - The report highlights that the human-like robot sector is entering a year of mass production, with supply chain adjustments and component innovations being crucial. Tesla's Musk has set a production target of 5,000 to 10,000 units for the year [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of component innovations such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials in enhancing robot capabilities [7][8] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is expected to see improvements on both the liability and asset sides, with low valuations and low holdings providing a balanced risk-reward profile. The estimated valuation for the insurance sector is between 0.61-0.96 times PEV and 0.98-2.21 times PB, indicating historical lows [9] REITs - The report discusses the potential of REITs in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the importance of policy support and structural optimization to enhance investment value. The diversification of asset types is expected to accelerate, with new assets like data centers and wind power emerging [10] Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with a projected demand growth of 0-3% for the year. The report notes that the export market remains strong, contributing to high industry sentiment [11] Unmanned Forklift Industry - The report suggests that the unmanned forklift sector is poised for rapid growth driven by AI technology and smart logistics. It recommends investing in leading companies in the smart forklift space [12] Consumer Services - The analysis of consumer spending in China indicates that the overall consumption rate is low, with both service and goods consumption needing improvement. The service consumption rate in China was 21.1% in 2019, compared to an average of 28.4% across 43 countries [20][21]