报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 2025年11月国内挖掘机内销持续增长，非挖品类景气度显著复苏 2025年11月电动装载机销量2935台，同比增长192.0%；电动化率达到了25.7%，同比提升了14.1个百 分点。2025年1-11月电动装载机销量27049台，同比增长160.9%；电动化率达到了23.4%，同比提升 了12.9个百分点。中央经济工作会议指出2026年要深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造。我们认为绿色化、 电动化是工程机械行业未来的重点发展方向之一，国内厂商借电动化东风不断超车，工程机械电动化进程 有望加速推进，带来主机厂营收利润的进一步提升。 雅下水电工程开工有望带动工程机械需求提升 7月19日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程（以下简称雅下水电工程）开 ...

积极财政政策拉动基建投资，工程机械中期需求持续复苏有保障 2025年12月10日-11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议指出，2026年要继续实施更加积极的财政 政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收 优惠、财政补贴政策。会议还指出要推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两 重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活 力。积极的财政政策有望对明年的基建投资起到拉动作用，进而带动下游设备需求。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年11月国内挖掘机内销持续增长，非挖品类景气度显著复苏 2025年11月我国挖掘机（含出口）销量20027台 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for specific companies within the machinery sector, particularly in tractor exports and gas turbine orders [5][11]. Core Insights - The SW Machinery Equipment Index decreased by 1.56% in the last week, ranking 29th among 31 primary industry categories, while it has increased by 33.82% year-to-date, ranking 6th [13][16]. - The report highlights strong growth in tractor exports, particularly for medium and large tractors, with a year-on-year increase of 22.6% in November 2025, and anticipates continued growth in 2026 [5]. - Siemens Energy is establishing a gas turbine assembly base in Hainan, which is expected to enhance collaboration with domestic companies like Yingliu, particularly in turbine blade orders [5][24]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing an upward trend, with significant increases in sales and operating rates, indicating a positive outlook driven by infrastructure projects [5][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 1.56% over the last week but has risen by 33.82% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][16]. Key Data Tracking - General machinery remains under pressure, with a PMI of 49.2% in November, while engineering machinery shows accelerated growth with excavator sales up by 7.8% year-on-year [25][33]. - The railway equipment sector is stable, with fixed asset investments maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [38]. - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, with new ship price indices showing a decline [40]. Industry Dynamics - The gas turbine market is robust, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new orders for the first three quarters of 2025 [48]. - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing, supported by high demand in the Middle East [43]. - Industrial gas demand is expected to rise as raw material prices decrease and downstream operating rates improve [46].

Excavator Market Overview - In November 2025, a total of 20,027 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales accounted for 9,842 units (up 9.11%), while exports reached 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [1][2]. - Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, 212,162 excavators were sold, marking a 16.7% increase year-on-year. Domestic sales were 108,187 units (up 18.6%), and exports were 103,975 units (up 14.9%) [2]. Loader Market Overview - In November 2025, 11,419 loaders were sold, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 32.1%. Domestic sales were 5,671 units (up 29.4%), and exports were 5,748 units (up 34.8%) [4][5]. - For the period from January to November 2025, a total of 115,831 loaders were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. Domestic sales reached 61,039 units (up 22.5%), while exports totaled 54,792 units (up 11.9%) [5]. Electric Excavator Market - In November 2025, 19 electric excavators were sold, categorized by weight: 5 units under 6 tons, 2 units between 6-10 tons, 1 unit between 10-18.5 tons, and 11 units between 18.5-28.5 tons [3]. Electric Loader Market - November 2025 saw the sale of 2,935 electric loaders, with the following breakdown: 38 units under 3 tons, 181 units at 3 tons, 7 units at 4 tons, 1,738 units at 5 tons, 823 units at 6 tons, 138 units at 7 tons, 3 units at 8 tons, and 4 units over 8 tons [6]. Grader Market Overview - In November 2025, 650 graders were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24%. Domestic sales were 111 units (up 24.7%), and exports were 539 units (up 23.9%) [7]. - From January to November 2025, a total of 7,568 graders were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.79%. Domestic sales were 1,335 units (up 29.5%), while exports were 6,233 units (up 4.06%) [7]. Crane Market Overview - In November 2025, 1,536 truck cranes were sold, with a year-on-year growth of 16.6%. Domestic sales were 780 units (up 25.8%), and exports were 756 units (up 8.46%) [8]. - Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, 18,063 truck cranes were sold, showing a decline of 1.38% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 9,773 units (down 1.02%), and exports were 8,290 units (down 1.8%) [9]. Forklift Market Overview - In November 2025, 119,749 forklifts were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. Domestic sales were 75,242 units (up 23.9%), while exports were 44,507 units (up 0.7%) [11]. - From January to November 2025, a total of 1,340,405 forklifts were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. Domestic sales were 843,005 units (up 14.3%), and exports were 497,400 units (up 14%) [11]. Roller Market Overview - In November 2025, 1,392 rollers were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 39.3%. Domestic sales were 427 units (up 23.1%), and exports were 965 units (up 48%) [12]. - Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, 16,118 rollers were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23%. Domestic sales were 6,024 units (up 17.4%), while exports were 10,094 units (up 26.5%) [12]. Paver Market Overview - In November 2025, 79 pavers were sold, indicating a year-on-year decline of 11.2%. Domestic sales were 62 units (up 14.8%), while exports were 17 units (down 51.4%) [13]. - From January to November 2025, a total of 1,431 pavers were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.9%. Domestic sales were 1,023 units (up 38.1%), and exports were 408 units (up 7.94%) [14]. Aerial Work Platform Market Overview - In November 2025, 9,824 aerial work platforms were sold, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.4%. Domestic sales were 4,416 units (up 20.7%), while exports were 5,048 units (down 39.9%) [15]. - From January to November 2025, a total of 150,845 aerial work platforms were sold, indicating a year-on-year decline of 30.1%. Domestic sales were 59,440 units (down 43.4%), and exports were 91,405 units (down 17.5%) [15]. High-altitude Work Vehicle Market Overview - In November 2025, 422 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.01%. Domestic sales were 387 units (down 10.8%), while exports were 35 units (up 133%) [16]. - From January to November 2025, a total of 4,562 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 32%. Domestic sales were 4,351 units (up 31.3%), and exports were 211 units (up 50.7%) [16].

智通财经APP获悉，据中国工程机械工业协会对平地机主要制造企业统计，2025年11月当月销售各类平 地机650台，同比增长24%，其中国内销量111台，同比增长24.7%；出口量539台，同比增长23.9%。 2025年1—11月，共销售平地机7568台，同比增长7.79%；其中国内销量1335台，同比增长29.5%；出口 6233台，同比增长4.06%。 据中国工程机械工业协会对汽车起重机主要制造企业统计，2025年11月当月销售各类汽车起重机1536 台，同比增长16.6%，其中国内销量780台，同比增长25.8%；出口量756台，同比增长8.46%。 2025年1—11月，共销售汽车起重机18063台，同比下降1.38%；其中国内销量9773台，同比下降 1.02%；出口8290台，同比下降1.8%。 据中国工程机械工业协会对履带起重机主要制造企业统计，2025年11月当月销售各类履带起重机329 台，同比增长66.2%，其中国内销量109台，同比增长102%；出口量220台，同比增长52.8%。 2025年1—11月，共销售履带起重机3030台，同比增长26.5%；其中国内销量960台，同比增长27. ...

Core Insights - The Chinese construction machinery industry is experiencing a strong recovery, attracting global capital interest, with excavator sales expected to grow by 17% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [1] - The issuance of the engineering machinery ETF by the fund is set to provide investors with a convenient tool to capitalize on the current recovery in the industry, with fundraising ending on December 5, 2025 [1][5] Policy Support - The recovery of the construction machinery industry is driven by a combination of policies, market demand, and internal industry cycles, with strong policy support acting as a "booster" [2] - The State Council's large-scale equipment renewal initiative is identified as the core policy engine driving domestic demand, with over 60% of the excavator stock renewal demand expected in 2025 [2] - The issuance of special government bonds worth trillions this year is directing funds towards infrastructure projects, thereby boosting new equipment procurement [2] Market Demand - The market demand is characterized by a clear "internal stability and external growth" pattern, with domestic sales of non-excavator equipment showing significant growth [2] - In the overseas market, exports have become the main growth engine, with China's construction machinery export value reaching $48.57 billion from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [2] Financial Performance - The recovery in industry prosperity is reflected in improved corporate profitability, with the construction machinery sector achieving a net profit of 20.999 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth rate of 21.59% [3] - Revenue for the same period was 205.565 billion yuan, up 7.52%, indicating that profit growth is outpacing revenue growth, confirming the effectiveness of the industry recovery [3] Market Concentration - The construction machinery industry exhibits a high market concentration, with leading companies gaining significant advantages, making it crucial to focus on these leaders for investment opportunities [4] - The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index is designed to reflect this industry characteristic, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 70% of the index weight, and the top four stocks representing over 51% [4] Investment Opportunities - The engineering machinery ETF closely tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, providing a transparent tool for investors to capitalize on the recovery of leading companies in the industry [5] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the ETF, especially those optimistic about the core competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing and the cyclical recovery logic [5]

工程机械 2026 年度策略：国内外共振向上，重点关注海 外行业景气度复苏 20251202 摘要 2025 年前三季度工程机械板块收入增速超 10%，显著高于 2023 和 2024 年，主要得益于三季度国内 FY 收入端明显反转并实现正增长，利 润方面，净利率提高约一个百分点，经营杠杆提升盈利能力。 三一重工、徐工股价至 2025 年 10 月底涨幅接近 40%，三一重工受益 于国内业务毛利率提升，徐工受益于股权激励及矿山业务估值提升，中 联重科与柳工表现与自身利润增速匹配。 2026 年小型挖掘机销量预计保持 20%以上增速，受益于中央特别国债 资金支持的小型水利项目需求，中大型设备销量依赖地产复苏及西部大 基建等项目进度，总体预计明年挖掘机总销量增速约为 10-15%。 国债发行情况及地方政府专项债使用方向影响工程机械市场，新增万亿 特别国债支撑小型设备需求，但专项债多用于偿还旧账，限制中大型设 备需求，地产复苏与大基建项目进度对中大型设备有拉动效应。 预计 2026 年国内挖掘机市场与 2025 年相当或有所提升，长期来看， 机器替代人工趋势明显，中国挖掘机销量有望达到 40 万至 50 万台。 Q ...

Core Insights - Changsha County has achieved significant economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-quality development and implementing the "Three Highs and Four News" strategy [1][17]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The county's comprehensive strength has ranked 5th among the top 100 counties in China for eight consecutive years and is the first in Central and Western China [2][19]. - The GDP is projected to increase from 180.83 billion yuan in 2020 to 240 billion yuan by 2025, with a market entity total of 241,000, reflecting a 58% growth compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2][19]. - The number of enterprises has grown by 82%, reaching 95,000 [2][19]. Group 2: Social Development - Over the past five years, the county has invested over 70 billion yuan in fiscal and livelihood projects, with an expected net increase of nearly 100,000 residents and job creation of the same number [2][20]. - The county has renovated 70 old urban communities and expanded or built 21 schools, adding 52,600 new educational slots, ranking first in education quality among the top 100 counties [2][20]. Group 3: Industrial Growth - The advanced manufacturing sector has developed into a world-class cluster, with significant growth in new energy vehicles and information technology industries [3][21]. - The number of national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises has increased significantly, alongside a rise in high-tech enterprises and technology-based SMEs by 140% and 440%, respectively [3][21]. Group 4: Innovation and Reform - The county has made substantial progress in establishing a highland for technological innovation, with over 6.7 billion yuan invested in technology over five years [4][21]. - The establishment of the Changsha County Free Trade Zone has led to innovative regulatory models and improved the business environment, recognized as a benchmark for international business environment construction [4][22]. Group 5: Strategic Advantages - The county is actively fostering new productive forces, with the number of national-level intelligent manufacturing demonstration factories increasing to six [5][23]. - The integration of various development zones has accelerated project introductions, contributing to the construction of a national logistics hub [5][23]. - The county is expected to reach an urbanization rate of nearly 76% by 2025, with significant advancements in public services and infrastructure [5][23].

Group 1: Grader Sales - In October 2025, a total of 634 graders were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.11%, with domestic sales of 102 units (up 22.9%) and exports of 532 units (up 1.14%) [1] - From January to October 2025, 6,918 graders were sold, marking a 6.48% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales of 1,224 units (up 29.9%) and exports of 5,694 units (up 2.5%) [1] Group 2: Truck Cranes - In October 2025, 1,422 truck cranes were sold, showing a year-on-year growth of 15%, with domestic sales of 738 units (up 41.7%) and exports of 684 units (down 4.47%) [2] - For the period from January to October 2025, a total of 16,527 truck cranes were sold, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.78%, with domestic sales of 8,993 units (down 2.82%) and exports of 7,534 units (down 2.72%) [2] Group 3: Crawler Cranes - In October 2025, 336 crawler cranes were sold, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 71.4%, with domestic sales of 97 units (up 54%) and exports of 239 units (up 79.7%) [3] - From January to October 2025, 2,701 crawler cranes were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, with domestic sales of 851 units (up 21.6%) and exports of 1,850 units (up 23.6%) [3] Group 4: Truck-Mounted Cranes - In October 2025, 1,907 truck-mounted cranes were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with domestic sales of 1,528 units (up 2.41%) and exports of 379 units (up 59.2%) [4] - From January to October 2025, a total of 20,909 truck-mounted cranes were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.87%, with domestic sales of 16,271 units (up 3.01%) and exports of 4,638 units (up 17.3%) [4] Group 5: Tower Cranes - In October 2025, 329 tower cranes were sold, which is a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, with domestic sales of 199 units (down 16.7%) and exports of 130 units (up 14%) [5] - From January to October 2025, a total of 4,463 tower cranes were sold, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.6%, with domestic sales of 2,384 units (down 50.4%) and exports of 2,079 units (up 28.3%) [5] Group 6: Industrial Vehicles - In October 2025, 114,250 forklifts were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, with domestic sales of 70,388 units (up 16.2%) and exports of 43,862 units (up 15.4%) [6] - From January to October 2025, a total of 1,220,656 forklifts were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with domestic sales of 767,763 units (up 13.4%) and exports of 452,893 units (up 15.5%) [6] Group 7: Rollers - In October 2025, 1,162 rollers were sold, indicating a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with domestic sales of 421 units (up 6.85%) and exports of 741 units (up 27.8%) [8] - From January to October 2025, a total of 14,726 rollers were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with domestic sales of 5,597 units (up 17%) and exports of 9,129 units (up 24.6%) [8] Group 8: Pavers - In October 2025, 103 pavers were sold, which is a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, with domestic sales of 63 units (up 8.62%) and exports of 40 units (up 48.1%) [9] - From January to October 2025, a total of 1,352 pavers were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, with domestic sales of 961 units (up 39.9%) and exports of 391 units (up 14%) [9] Group 9: Aerial Work Platforms - In October 2025, 9,120 aerial work platforms were sold, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 38.8%, with domestic sales of 3,856 units (down 41.8%) and exports of 5,264 units (down 36.3%) [10] - From January to October 2025, a total of 141,021 aerial work platforms were sold, indicating a year-on-year decline of 30.6%, with domestic sales of 55,024 units (down 45.7%) and exports of 85,997 units (down 15.6%) [10] Group 10: High-altitude Work Vehicles - In October 2025, 322 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.23%, with domestic sales of 319 units (up 16.8%) and exports of 3 units (down 90.9%) [11] - From January to October 2025, a total of 4,140 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.7%, with domestic sales of 3,964 units (up 37.6%) and exports of 176 units (up 40.8%) [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The machinery equipment industry continues to benefit from renewal demand and a recovery in overall domestic and international sales [1] - As of September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, indicating a slight improvement but still in contraction territory, while the production PMI is at 51.9%, indicating expansion [2][6] - The report highlights a mixed performance in various machinery sales, with excavators and some other equipment showing growth, while tower cranes and aerial work platforms are experiencing declines [26][40][91] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Trends - In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI recorded 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, but still in contraction [2][6] - The PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month, while the core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months [11] - Fixed asset investment from January to September 2025 totaled 371,535 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up 3.3% and real estate investment down 14.0% [14] Sales Overview of Chinese Engineering Machinery - From January to September 2025, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [19] - Sales of various types of cranes showed mixed results, with tower cranes down 31.9% and truck-mounted cranes up 5.46% [27][47] - The report notes that sales of loaders reached 93,739 units, up 14.6% year-on-year, while sales of high-altitude work vehicles increased by 41.4% [53][92] Specific Equipment Performance - In September 2025, sales of various types of cranes showed growth in domestic sales, particularly for truck-mounted and crawler cranes, while tower cranes faced a decline [52] - The report indicates that domestic infrastructure investment remains resilient, benefiting related equipment sectors such as road machinery and high-altitude equipment [99] - Forklift sales reached 1,106,406 units from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% [101]