【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月26日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。供应端，春节前，PVC开工率环比增加0.83个百分点至 80.09%，PVC开工率继续小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。春节期间，PVC下游绝大多数停工。出口 方面，春节前，价格上涨后，国内出口签单环比回落，但之前的抢出口使得企业销售压力不大。中 国台湾台塑PVC出口3月份船货离岸价环比2月上调40美元/吨。社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多， 目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交 面积环比回落，春节期间，商品房成交低迷，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产 企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，春节 后现货成交清淡，社会库存继续增加，原料价格下跌。不过生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发 攻关等关键环节，加快推动聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转型，加上抢出口节后有望延续，市场对于春节后 仍有政策及检修 ...

慧正资讯，2月25日，天津渤海化学股份有限公司发布公告，其募投的"丙烯酸酯和高吸水性树脂新材料 项目"部分装置已具备投产条件，并于2026年2月24日正式投料运行。此次率先投产的丙烯酸丁酯项目， 设计产能为16万吨/年，与丙烯酸异辛酯装置切换生产。 2.选择→发消息 3、输入查询产品，如"MDI+联系方式"，我们将及时回复。 该项目由全资子公司渤海石化实施，总投资约6.82亿元，是渤海化学突破单一产品结构、向高分子新材 料转型的标志性一步。在国内丙烯酸酯产能持续扩张、行业竞争日趋激烈的背景下，此次投产既为渤海 化学打开新增长空间，也将进一步重塑区域市场竞争格局。 长期以来，丙烯是渤海化学的核心产品，其依托60万吨/年丙烷脱氢（PDH）装置，为聚丙烯、丙烯 腈、环氧丙烷等下游领域提供原料。但高度依赖单一大宗品的业务结构，使渤海化学业绩与丙烯市场周 期深度绑定，盈利稳定性与抗风险能力明显受限。近年来PDH行业产能过剩加剧，丙烯价格波动加剧， 更凸显出产业链向下游高附加值延伸的紧迫性。 丙烯酸丁酯作为丙烯下游高附加值精细化学品，广泛应用于涂料、胶粘剂、纺织助剂等领域，市场需求 稳定且盈利空间优于基础丙烯。此次投产的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the price of acrylic acid has increased by 100 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton, indicating a positive trend in the market due to stable supply and potentially increasing demand [1][4][5] - The production capacity of the acrylic acid facility is 300,000 tons per year, and it is currently operating normally, which supports the stability of supply in the market [1][4] - The short-term outlook for acrylic acid prices is expected to remain strong, driven by the current market conditions [2][5] Group 2 - The pricing model used by the company is based on big data and a pricing model, which serves as a trading guide price known as the "Business Society Price" [2][5] - The pricing formula for settlement prices includes an adjustment coefficient (K) and a premium/discount (C) that accounts for various costs such as logistics and regional price differences [3][6]

盘面上，两市高开高走，化工概念板块上涨。相关ETF方面，化工ETF天弘（159133）标的指数盘 中涨3.24%，申购额达750万份；成交额达4176.96万元；换手率达1.49%。成分股中，川发龙蟒、云天化 涨停，和邦生物、兴发集团、博源化工、宏达股份、多氟多涨超5%，万华化学、鲁西化工、龙佰集团 等多股跟涨。 化工ETF天弘（159133）紧密跟踪细分化工指数，该指数近一年涨幅达56.38%，其行业配置主要包 括化学制品（26.18%）、农化制品（22.71%）、化学原料（14.01%）等，前五大成分股为万华化学、 盐湖股份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升。该ETF还配备了2只场外联接基金（A类：015896；C类： 015897）。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 消息面上，细分化工板块今日受到多重积极因素提振。其一，据国海证券、国盛证券等机构研报显 示，行业"反内卷"政策持续深化，推动聚酯、有机硅等多个子行业通过联合减产优化供给格局。其二， 产品价格层面出现积极信号，据百川盈孚及相关券商跟踪，分散染料关键中间体还原物价格显著上涨， 同时维生素E出口报价上调，TMP产品也因装置检修供给趋紧。其三，据申万宏源证券报 ...

周四化工ETF上涨0.21%，跑赢上证指数0.22个百分点，消息面上： 化工ETF紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7 条指数组成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映 相关细分产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 1、盐湖提锂: 2月25日，津巴布韦一周之内再出禁令，暂停所有精矿出口。26年津巴布韦产量规模约 20.8万吨LCE，占全球供给约10%，暂停单月影响约1.7万吨，或推动全球锂盐供应短期紧张，利好国内 盐湖锂提企业。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学、 盐湖股份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能源、云天化、荣盛石化，前 十大权重股合计占比44.82%。 2、磷化工: 2月18日，特朗普签署行政令，援引《国防生产法》将元素磷（elemental phosphorus）及草 甘膦等关键除草剂纳入国防关键物资，并明确要求任何实施规则不得危及国内生产商的持续经营能力。 此前2025年11月，美国内政部及USGS已新将磷酸盐纳入关键矿产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities indicates that major overseas manufacturers have raised MDI prices in North America, suggesting a potential price increase trend for MDI. The traditional price increase period for polyurethane products occurs around February, influenced by the Lunar New Year holidays in key markets such as mainland China, Taiwan, and Southeast Asian countries, as well as increased demand during Ramadan in the Middle East [1] Industry Summary - February is a traditional price increase period for polyurethane products due to holiday impacts in major consumption markets [1] - The MDI and polyether manufacturers are experiencing smooth shipments, leading to low inventory levels [1] - As of February 24, domestic polymer MDI prices are at 13,900 CNY/ton, pure MDI prices at 17,500 CNY/ton, both stable compared to pre-Lunar New Year levels; TDI prices have increased by 275 CNY/ton to 14,900 CNY/ton [1] Company Summary - Wanhua Chemical is identified as a leading player in the polyurethane industry with significant scale advantages, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

化工品涨价潮持续蔓延，消息面上，2月25日，巴斯夫宣布，从即日起，或根据合同条款允许的情况， 巴斯夫上调东盟地区MDI产品价格，涨幅为200美元/吨。此次价格调整主要由于原材料成本持续上涨所 致。此外，主流氨纶企业今天氨纶价格均上调了1000元每吨，氯虫苯甲氨酰（康宽）提价23500元，K 胺（氯虫苯甲氨酰中间体）提价10000元。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学、 盐湖股份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能源、云天化、荣盛石化，前 十大权重股合计占比44.82%。 化工ETF(159870)，场外联接(接A：014942；C：014943；I：022792)。 中泰证券指出，全球MDI供需格局正边际向好，2026—2027年预计出现65—107万吨供给缺口，叠加海 外高成本产能持续退出，行业价格中枢有望逐步上行。 截至2026年2月26日 13:06，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)上涨0.48%，成分股盐湖股份上涨 8.40%，蓝晓科技上涨6.23%，博源化工上涨3.97%，中简科技上涨3.62%，藏格 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The Asian aromatics market shows a structural trend affected by geopolitical factors. The speculative sentiment in the Asian PX market has rebounded, and the PX price increased by $20 during the holiday due to the rise in crude oil prices. The polyester market has some factories facing cash - flow issues, and overseas PTA factories are under operational pressure due to poor profits. The domestic PX market has sufficient supply, but there will be a major turnaround season from March to May, which may lead to supply tightening. The PTA in China maintains high - level production, and domestic demand has declined. The tension in the Middle East may cause short - term energy price fluctuations. For ethylene glycol, the situation in Iran is uncertain, and the tariff increase may impact the global financial and trade environment. The production profit margin of naphtha cracking has declined, and the price of ethylene glycol is waiting at a low level. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 493.3 yuan/barrel on February 24, 2026, to 488.3 yuan/barrel on February 25, 2026, a decrease of 5.00 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased by 3.66 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0040; PTA主力期价 dropped by 40.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 remained unchanged at 5285 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased by 11.0; PTA仓单数量 remained at 113652 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased by 10.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha remained unchanged at (198.94) yuan/ton; MEG内盘 increased by 22.0 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased by 7.0 [3]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX decreased from 933 to 929, and PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3 [3]. Industry Chain and Product Information - **开工情况**: PX开工率 remained at 87.18%; PTA开工率 increased from 74.58% to 76.40%, an increase of 1.82%; MEG开工率 remained at 62.37%; 聚酯负荷 increased from 76.36% to 76.46%, an increase of 0.10% [3]. - **涤纶长丝**: POY150D/48F remained at 7080; POY现金流 decreased by 7.0; FDY150D/96F remained at 7295; FDY现金流 decreased by 7.0; DTY150D/48F increased by 5.0; DTY现金流 decreased by 2.0; 长丝产销 increased from 3% to 17%, an increase of 14% [3]. - **涤纶短纤**: 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased by 10; 涤短现金流 decreased by 17.0; 短纤产销 increased from 6% to 57%, an increase of 51% [3]. - **聚酯切片**: 半光切片 decreased by 20.0; 切片现金流 decreased by 27.0; 切片产销 increased from 1% to 15%, an increase of 14% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 2.5 - million - ton PTA device is expected to stop production on February 10, 2026, and the restart time is undetermined [3].

Core Viewpoint - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index has shown an upward trend, increasing by 1.22% as of February 26, with leading stocks such as Salt Lake Potash, Bluestar Technology, and Cangge Mining showing significant gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has followed the index's upward movement, achieving three consecutive days of gains and attracting a total of 146 million yuan over the past 12 trading days [1] - Overall, the global stock market has been strong during the Spring Festival, with no major risk events, leading to high market sentiment and the potential for a new upward trend in A-shares post-holiday [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The industry allocation continues to focus on a dual mainline strategy of "technology + resource products," with technology focusing on AI, humanoid robots, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while resource products emphasize precious metals, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals [1] - The petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, driven by both basic chemicals and oil and petrochemicals, while also including high dividend and high growth assets [1] Group 3: Key Stocks - Major weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical (global leader in MDI), China Petroleum (domestic oil and gas leader), China Petrochemical (domestic refining leader), and Salt Lake Potash (domestic potassium fertilizer leader) [1]

石化ETF(159731)，场外联接(华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接A：017855；华夏中证石化产业ETF发 起式联接C：017856)。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 截至2026年2月26日9:53，中证石化产业指数(H11057)上涨0.86%，成分股盐湖股份上涨8.51%，蓝晓科 技上涨4.23%，藏格矿业上涨4.02%，和邦生物上涨3.12%，浙江龙盛上涨2.98%。石化ETF(159731)上涨 1.13%， 冲击3连涨。流动性方面，截至2月25日，石化ETF近1月日均成交2.17亿元。资金流入方面，石 化ETF近12个交易日合计"吸金"1.46亿元。 国海证券分析称，节后需求回暖叠加库存低位，关注春节后聚氨酯涨价行情。每年2月前后是聚氨酯产 品的传统涨价节点之一，这主要是由于聚氨酯的主要消费市场比如中国大陆、中国台湾、越南等东南亚 国家和地区处于春节假期。此外，中东市场处于斋月期，节日备货需求提升，使得MDI和聚醚等聚氨酯 厂家顺利出货，库存降至低位。 石化ETF(159731)紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，截至2026年1月30日，中证石化产业指数(H11057)前十大 权重股分别为 ...