Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - As of January 23, 2026, eight banks have reported stable growth in performance and maintained asset quality. The outlook for 2026 suggests continued improvement in listed banks' performance, supported by narrowing interest margin declines and decreasing credit costs [2][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Indicators - Eight banks reported their performance for 2025, showing stable growth and asset quality. The revenue growth rates for major banks were as follows: - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank: +1.9% - Industrial Bank: +0.2% - China Merchants Bank: +0.01% - CITIC Bank: -0.6% - Regional banks like Nanjing Bank and Ningbo Bank showed stronger growth at +10.5% and +8.0% respectively [4][6]. - Profit growth was stable across listed banks, with notable increases in Hangzhou and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank exceeding 10% [4][6]. Scale and Growth - Quality regional banks continued to experience strong credit growth, with year-end asset growth rates for Nanjing, Ningbo, and Hangzhou at 16.6%, 16.1%, and 12.0% respectively. Loan growth rates were 13.4%, 17.4%, and 14.3% respectively [4][6]. - Overall deposit growth remained stable, with city commercial banks maintaining over 10% growth and joint-stock banks at 7%-8% [4][6]. Asset Quality - Non-performing loan ratios showed a stable or declining trend among the eight banks, with Shanghai Pudong, Suzhou Rural, and CITIC banks reporting decreases to 1.26%, 0.88%, and 1.15% respectively [4][6]. - The provision coverage ratio remained robust, with Hangzhou and China Merchants Bank showing declines of over 10 percentage points but still at high absolute levels [4][6]. Outlook for 2026 - The report anticipates continued improvement in bank performance in 2026, driven by narrowing interest margin declines and decreasing credit costs. Key factors include: - Net interest income growth expected to improve due to the expiration of high-cost long-term deposits and stable LPR [4][6]. - Fee income growth driven by insurance and wealth management channels [4][6]. - Asset quality improvements as risks in key corporate sectors are resolved [4][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines for 2026: 1. Identifying banks with potential for performance growth, recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank. 2. Considering banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Chongqing Bank and Changshu Bank. 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending Bank of Communications, Jiangsu Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [4][6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [7][35] Core Insights - The regulatory environment is expected to strengthen, focusing on substantial risks and enhancing regulatory efficiency through classification and grading methods. The application of regulatory technology, including big data and artificial intelligence, will significantly deepen [7][33] - The banking sector's transformation path is becoming clearer, with a focus on reducing and improving small and medium financial institutions, promoting differentiated competition, and aligning resources with key economic development areas [7][33] Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The National Financial Supervision Administration held a meeting emphasizing the importance of risk management and the progress made in reforming small and medium financial institutions in 2025. The meeting also highlighted the expansion and efficiency of urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms [6][31] - In 2026, efforts to resolve risks will continue, with a clear mandate to avoid "explosive" failures in the financial sector. The meeting proposed ongoing reforms for small and medium financial institutions and a focus on long-term mechanisms for risk management [7][33] Market Performance - The banking index fell by 2.70% during the period from January 19 to January 25, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.08 percentage points. The performance of large banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks varied, with regional banks showing relatively better performance [11] Investment Recommendations - As risks in key areas gradually resolve, there is potential for valuation recovery in the banking sector. The stability of interest margins is expected to improve, and performance is showing signs of stabilization. In a low-interest-rate environment, the high dividend yield of bank stocks is highlighted as a key investment value. Recommendations include focusing on state-owned banks with stable asset deployment and joint-stock and regional banks with growth potential, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and others [9][35]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - As of January 23, 2026, eight banks have reported stable growth in performance and maintained asset quality. The outlook for 2026 suggests continued improvement in bank performance, supported by narrowing interest margin declines and decreasing credit costs [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Indicators - Eight banks reported their performance for 2025, showing stable growth and asset quality. The revenue growth rates for major banks were as follows: - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank: +1.9% - Industrial Bank: +0.2% - China Merchants Bank: +0.01% - CITIC Bank: -0.6% - Regional banks showed varied performance, with Nanjing Bank at +10.5%, Ningbo Bank at +8.0%, Hangzhou Bank at +1.1%, and Suzhou Rural Bank at +0.4% [4][6]. 2. Scale and Growth - Quality regional banks continued to experience strong credit growth. By the end of 2025, asset growth rates were: - Nanjing Bank: 16.6% - Ningbo Bank: 16.1% - Hangzhou Bank: 12.0% - Loan growth rates were: - Nanjing Bank: 13.4% - Ningbo Bank: 17.4% - Hangzhou Bank: 14.3% - Overall deposit growth remained stable, with city commercial banks maintaining a growth rate of over 10% and joint-stock banks at 7%-8% [4][6]. 3. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios showed a stable or declining trend across the eight banks, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank at 1.26%, Suzhou Rural Bank at 0.88%, and CITIC Bank at 1.15%. The provision coverage ratios remained robust, with Hangzhou Bank and China Merchants Bank showing a decline of over 10 percentage points but still at high absolute levels [4][6]. 4. Outlook for 2026 - The report anticipates continued improvement in bank performance in 2026, driven by: - A narrowing decline in interest margins leading to improved net interest income growth. - Increased fee income from insurance and wealth management channels. - Continued resolution of risks in key corporate sectors and stabilization of retail risk exposure [4][6]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines for 2026: 1. Identifying banks with potential for performance growth, recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank. 2. Considering banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Chongqing Bank and Changshu Bank. 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending Bank of Communications, Jiangsu Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Huatai Bairui Dividend Select Mixed A (022153) reported a profit of 790,200 yuan in Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0213 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 1.22%, and the fund size reached 40.0857 million yuan by the end of Q4 2025 [3][11]. Fund Performance - As of January 23, the fund's unit net value was 1.161 yuan. The fund manager, Yang Jinghan, emphasizes a long-term investment strategy focused on high-quality equity assets to create sustainable compound returns for investors [3]. - The fund's three-month cumulative net value growth rate was -4.11%, ranking 13th out of 16 comparable funds, while the six-month growth rate was -0.45%, ranking 10th out of 16 [3]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception was 0.2589 as of December 31 [4]. - The maximum drawdown since inception was 5.52%, with the highest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q4 2025 at 4.96% [6]. Investment Strategy - The fund maintains a high average stock position of 87.64% since inception, compared to the peer average of 87.05%. The fund reached a peak stock position of 93.27% at the end of Q3 2025 and a low of 80.66% at the end of H1 2025 [10]. - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten positions including Qilu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Qingdao Bank, Chengdu Bank, China Communications Construction, Changshu Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Department Store, Hangzhou Bank, and Nanjing Bank [13].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 票 研 究 主动基金环比持平，被动基金增持 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 25Q4 主动基金对银行持仓比例环比持平于 1.9%，被动基金持仓比例环比+1.6pct 至 7.0%，其中宁波银行、兴业银行、中国银行、建设银行等获主动基金增配。 25Q4 基金对银行持仓点评 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 2025 年四季度基金重仓持股情况披露（主动基金包括普通股票型、 偏股混合型、灵活配置型，被动基金包括被动指数型、指数增强型）： [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《国有大行投放力度较大，不良压力或 企稳》20 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of 127 regional banks in Jiangsu Province, highlighting their asset and liability structures, profitability, and asset quality [6][18] - Jiangsu's regional banks have shown a significant increase in asset growth, with major city commercial banks growing at 19.4%, surpassing the growth of listed city commercial banks at 14.2% [24][26] - The report indicates that the loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is projected to reach 48.4% in 2024, reflecting a gradual increase in lending activities [30] - Jiangsu's regional banks exhibit better return on assets (ROA) compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks outperforming by 16 basis points and rural commercial banks by 9 basis points [6][42] - The asset quality of Jiangsu's regional banks is superior to that of listed banks, with lower non-performing loan ratios and higher provision coverage ratios [6][42] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Structure of Jiangsu Province - Jiangsu Province is focusing on new industrialization and strategic emerging industries, with significant contributions from cities like Nanjing and Suzhou [13][14] 2. Overview of 127 Regional Banks in Jiangsu - The report categorizes the banks into city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and others, with a total of 127 banks established between 2006 and 2015 [18][20] 3. Asset/Liability Structure - The asset growth of major city commercial banks is accelerating, while rural commercial banks are experiencing a decline in growth rates [24][26] - The loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is expected to increase to 48.4% by 2024, indicating a shift towards more lending [30] 4. Profitability - Jiangsu's regional banks have a higher ROA compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks showing a 16 basis point advantage [6][42] 5. Asset Quality/Capital Levels - Jiangsu's regional banks maintain a lower non-performing loan ratio compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks having a 30 basis point lower ratio [6][42]

Core Viewpoint - A significant surge in the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) by small and medium-sized banks has been observed, reflecting a shift towards short-term products in response to a challenging interest margin environment [1][4]. Group 1: Issuance Trends - As of January 22, at least 234 new large-denomination CDs from small and medium-sized banks have been launched, indicating a robust issuance trend [2]. - On January 22 alone, five banks issued a total of 12 new CD products, with Changshu Bank notably offering multiple series of CDs [2]. Group 2: Characteristics of New Products - The newly issued CDs exhibit a clear trend towards shorter maturities, with half of the products from Changshu Bank having a duration of only six months, and the longest being two years [3]. - Personal large-denomination CDs are increasingly difficult to find in five-year terms, with one- to two-year products dominating the market [3]. Group 3: Interest Rates - The annualized interest rates for personal large-denomination CDs from small and medium-sized banks have generally fallen to the "1" range, yet remain competitive compared to state-owned banks [3]. - For three-year CDs, interest rates are typically in the range of 1.75% to 1.85%, while one- and two-year products generally offer rates between 1.35% and 1.5% [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The trend towards short-term products reflects banks' proactive measures to adapt to a low net interest margin environment, as they seek to stabilize profits by reducing or halting high-cost long-term deposits [4]. - The upcoming maturity of approximately 32 trillion yuan in long-term deposits by 2026, with a significant portion maturing in the first quarter, indicates a shift in deposit re-pricing dynamics [4]. Group 5: Deposit Migration - The ongoing decline in deposit rates and the phenomenon of "deposit migration" are critical market concerns, with a projected 6 trillion yuan in excess savings formed by residents from 2022 to 2025 [5]. - Despite a recovering capital market, residents' investment and consumption tendencies have not significantly improved, suggesting that deposit migration is more about asset allocation adjustments rather than a fundamental change in risk appetite [5][6].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 1月23日，济安金信及华泰证券共同举办的中国资管群星汇颁奖典礼暨私募基金高质量发展论坛，邀请 在2025年表现优异的银行理财、商业银行、养老金管理人、私募基金等资管机构、主流媒体行业精英共 探发展趋势、分享前沿洞见，共建开放、协作、共赢的金融生态圈。此次论坛上，重磅发布2025年养老 金产品及管理人"群星汇"多项大奖榜单。本次颁奖盛典在予以表彰优秀资管管理人的同时，全新增设私 募基金评选赛道。 济安金信作为中国证监会备案、具备证券投资基金公开评级与评奖双资质的独立第三方机构，始终秉 持"公平、公正、公开"的原则，以科学、独创的评级体系助力行业生态建设，致力于"济安群星汇"资管 评奖，推动行业健康有序发展。 "济安群星汇"的奖项评选是济安金信以济安研究院五大研究中心为载 体，中国人民大学金融信息中心为学术指导单位，联合上海金融与发展实验室、龙马学院、中央财经大 学银行业研究中心等权威研究机构行业专家联手打造。 获得2025年度济安群星汇理财公司综合奖——群星奖的机构是：光大理财有限责任公司、信银理财有限 责任公司、招银理财有限责任公司、南 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.91% on January 23, with Changshu Bank leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.79% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of Changshu Bank was 7.18, reflecting a decrease of 1.51% [1] - The sector's main stocks showed mixed performance, with XD Yunnong Bank increasing by 0.82% to 6.12, and Wuxi Bank decreasing by 0.17% to 5.81 [1] - The total trading volume for the agricultural commercial bank sector was significant, with XD Yunnong Bank recording a volume of 921,300 shares and a transaction value of 565 million [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The agricultural commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 9.78 million from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 76.56 million [1] - Among individual banks, Shanghai Agricultural Commercial Bank had the highest net inflow from main funds at 26.90 million, while Changshu Bank faced a net outflow of 22.49 million [2] - Retail investors showed a significant net inflow into Qingnong Bank at 24.98 million, despite the bank experiencing a net outflow from main and speculative funds [2]

固收加锐不可当，延续增长 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) 25Q4 公募基金转债持仓分析 本报告导读： Q4 固收+规模延续增长态势，震荡市下小幅增配权益、明显增持金融债，在提升权 益暴露的同时控制波动。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | | | liuyu6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | 孙飞帆(研究助理) | | | 021-23185647 | | | sunfeifan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125042242 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 带"负久期"特征的基金产品平均超额收益再测 算 2026.01.19 考虑政府债久期拉长与存款置换：大行 EVE 指标 空间再测算的四个要点 2026.01.15 长债供给放量，需要担忧资金收敛吗 2026.01.13 债券 ETF 持续缩量 2026.01.12 "负久期"、信用套息和地方债套保 2026.01.10 证 券 研 究 报 告 研 究 [ ...