Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The innovative drug industry chain continues to show strong performance, with the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector outperforming the CSI 300 index, rising by 3.29% while the index fell by 1.08% during the week of November 10 to November 14, 2025 [9][10] - The market potential for small nucleic acids is continuously increasing, indicating that it may become a significant technological hotspot in innovative drugs [19][22] - The sentiment in the innovative drug sector has recently declined, but the sustainability of the sector's prosperity is expected to continue, with a focus on "innovation + internationalization" [22][24] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 22.99%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.38 percentage points [9] - The sector's valuation as of November 14, 2025, is 30.89 (PE, TTM), with a premium of 129.74% over the CSI 300 index [10] 2. Industry Events/Policy Overview - On November 14, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a stable economic performance, with industrial production increasing by 4.9% year-on-year [17] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 14.97 trillion yuan in RMB loans in the first ten months of 2025 [17] 3. Industry Investment Strategy - The report highlights the active business development (BD) transactions in the innovative drug sector, with significant collaborations and licensing agreements, such as the partnership between Sainty Biotech and Eli Lilly [19] - The report suggests a focus on the recovery of the medical device and traditional Chinese medicine sectors, as well as the ongoing improvement in the innovative drug industry chain [22][28] 4. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - **Hengrui Medicine**: Expected to achieve rapid growth in both domestic and international markets [29] - **BeiGene**: Anticipated to achieve comprehensive profitability in 2025, with strong performance in its core products [30] - **Innovent Biologics**: Expected to reach a revenue target of 20 billion yuan by 2027 [31] - **Kanglong Chemical**: Projected to see significant revenue growth driven by its innovative products [32] - **WuXi AppTec**: Anticipated to maintain rapid growth in its core business and increase global production capacity [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" [4] Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a surge in business development (BD) transactions, with expectations for multiple BD deals to emerge in Q4 2025. As of October 2025, there have been 175 overseas licensing BD transactions in the domestic innovative drug sector, with a total contract value of $104.2 billion and upfront payments reaching $8.1 billion, surpassing the total figures for the entire year of 2024 [2][17][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector were: - Gilead Sciences (+45.40%) - Lai Kai Pharmaceutical (+27.93%) - Jiahe Biopharma (+24.61%) - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (+24.46%) - Kaitu Pharmaceutical (+22.81%) - The top five losers were: - Yongtai Biopharma (-7.74%) - Junsheng Tai (-7.43%) - Weixin Biopharma (-1.87%) - Zai Ding Pharmaceutical (-0.93%) - Maibo Pharmaceutical (-0.00%) [1][13][15] Recommended Focus Stocks - The report suggests focusing on several stocks with potential catalysts, including: 1. Products with high overseas sales certainty certified by MNCs: - PD-1 upgraded product: Sanofi - GLP-1 asset: Lianbang Pharmaceutical - ADC asset: Kelun-Botai 2. Potential heavyweights for overseas licensing from MNCs: - PD-1 upgraded product: Kangfang Biopharma - Breakthroughs in autoimmune fields: Yifang Biopharma, China Antibody - Innovative target ADC: Fuhong Hanlin, Shiyao Group 3. Stocks likely to benefit from medical insurance negotiations and commercial insurance innovative drug directories: - Expected beneficiaries from medical insurance directory: Hengrui Medicine, Kangnuo Pharmaceutical, Maiwei Biopharma, Zhixiang Jintai, Haichuang Pharmaceutical - Expected beneficiaries from commercial insurance innovative drug directory: WuXi AppTec, Kexin Pharmaceutical [2][17] New Drug Approval and Acceptance - This week, four new drugs or new indications received approval, and six new drugs or new indications were accepted for review [3][24]. Clinical Application Approval and Acceptance - This week, 43 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 43 new drug clinical applications were accepted [7][27].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's pharmaceutical sector has seen significant investment interest this year, particularly in the innovative drug segment, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (Southern, 159297) showing remarkable performance [1] - As of November 11, the scale of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (Southern, 159297) increased from 335 million to 1.355 billion, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 300%, indicating strong market recognition of the long-term value of the innovative drug sector [1] - The ETF closely tracks the National Index of Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drugs, which includes leading companies like BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and CanSino Biologics, enhancing its representation of the innovative drug industry [1] Group 2 - The innovative drug industry is crucial for advancing medical progress and improving human health, with companies categorized into two types: pure Biotech firms and BioPharma companies [2] - As of mid-2025, over 70% of Biotech companies are expected to achieve positive revenue growth, with approximately 66% surpassing 100 million in revenue, and nearly 15% exceeding 1 billion [2] - China's BioPharma sector is transitioning from single R&D to full industry chain integration, becoming a significant player in the global biopharmaceutical field, with a notable increase in overseas licensing amounts exceeding 92 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the innovative drug sector is expected to maintain its momentum despite recent sentiment fluctuations, with ongoing business development (BD) activities supporting sustained industry vitality [3] - The trend of "innovation + internationalization" in the innovative drug industry remains unchanged, with improved fundamentals observed in the industry chain, including positive trends in financing data, orders, and performance [3]

Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index declined by 2.62% from November 3 to November 7, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.37 percentage points, marking seven consecutive weeks of underperformance [1] - The innovative drug sector (BK1106) fell by 3.51% during the week, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index dropped by 2.39% and the Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (513120) decreased by 3.92% [1] Industry Commentary - After a strong rally, the innovative drug industry has entered a bubble-popping phase, with a return to rational investment not necessarily being negative for the sector. However, the current market adjustment appears excessive, with leading companies like Kangfang Biotech, Zai Lab, and Kelun-Biotech experiencing declines exceeding 30% [2] - Zai Lab's recent performance has been impacted by two public announcements: disappointing clinical data for its gastric cancer drug Bemarituzumab and a Q3 report showing total revenue of $116 million, a 14% year-on-year increase, but a net loss of $35.96 million, which is a narrowing of losses compared to the previous year. Revenue growth was primarily driven by sales of "Nusinersan" and "Dingyoule," offset by a slowdown in "Zele" sales [2] Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the innovative drug industry is undergoing emotional recovery and valuation reconstruction, with stock volatility heavily influenced by clinical data and earnings guidance. Zai Lab faces short-term emotional pressure due to the termination of a key clinical trial and downward adjustments in performance expectations. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the innovative logic of the industry remains unchanged, with globally competitive pipeline assets being the core support for company valuations [3] IPO Developments - Nanjing Haina Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC as the sole sponsor. This follows the termination of a major asset restructuring plan in June 2023, where Haina was to be acquired by Chengdu Xian Dao [4] - Haina Pharmaceutical, established in 2001, integrates drug research and manufacturing, providing CXO services and proprietary product pipelines. The company's revenue primarily comes from CXO services, with 398 ongoing CXO projects as of mid-2025 [4] Financial Performance - For 2024, Haina Pharmaceutical projects revenue of 425 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.65%, but a net profit of 53.295 million yuan, reflecting a 27% decline, indicating a situation of "increased revenue but decreased profit." In the first half of the year, both revenue and net profit saw declines of 16.97% and 25.82%, respectively, attributed to a decrease in CRO service income and a 45.8% drop in sales of proprietary drugs [5] Clinical Trial Updates - From November 3 to November 7, the National Medical Products Administration disclosed 110 new clinical trial registrations, with 33 of these being innovative drugs in Phase II or above, primarily covering oncology, immunology, cardiovascular, and psychiatric fields [6] - Four innovative drugs were approved during the week [7] Notable Approvals - The first CAR-T therapy in China, Pucalunase injection (pCAR-19B), was approved for treating pediatric acute B lymphoblastic leukemia patients aged 3 to 21. This drug was previously included in breakthrough therapy and priority review categories [8] - Pucalunase is the fifth CD19 CAR-T product approved in China, following four others from various companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International emphasizes a conservative investment approach, focusing on undervalued stocks in the healthcare sector, particularly in the context of recent market fluctuations and recovery in capital financing [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 59.5% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24.0% [1] - The healthcare sector has recently experienced a pullback, with the MSCI China Healthcare Index declining by 10% since October [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - CMB International identifies several stocks with attractive valuations, including Solid Biosciences (02273), Three-Sixty Biopharma (01530), Giant Biologics (02367), WuXi AppTec (02268), Innovent Biologics (01801), and China Biologic Products (01177) [1] - The report highlights a significant buyback plan from Solid Biosciences, which has repurchased HKD 350 million worth of shares this year, with a total expected return from buybacks and dividends reaching 7% [1] Group 3: Clinical Development and Regulatory Environment - The report stresses the importance of overseas clinical progress for authorized drug pipelines, which is expected to be a catalyst for stock price increases [2] - Three-Sixty Biopharma's collaboration with Pfizer is noted, with two global Phase 3 clinical trials for its drug 707 targeting non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer [2] Group 4: Healthcare Policy and Market Dynamics - The recent healthcare negotiations and the 11th batch of centralized procurement have seen reduced market attention, with 127 drugs participating in negotiations and 55 drugs included in the procurement [3] - The new procurement rules focus on maintaining clinical stability and quality, indicating a shift towards rational price competition in the market [3] - Despite the reduced focus on procurement, the domestic market performance remains a critical variable for overall business performance [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [30]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 59.5% since early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24.0%. However, the healthcare sector has recently experienced a 10% pullback, presenting opportunities in undervalued stocks [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas clinical advancements for authorized innovative drug pipelines, which are expected to be significant catalysts for stock price increases [3]. - The report highlights a recovery in domestic innovative drug research and development demand, driven by a resurgence in capital market financing and an increase in the scale of innovative drug transactions abroad [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report suggests a more conservative investment approach, focusing on undervalued stocks within the pharmaceutical sector. It notes that the recent healthcare insurance negotiations and the implementation of the 11th batch of centralized procurement have led to reduced market attention [3]. - The report identifies key products to watch in the upcoming healthcare negotiations, including drugs from companies like 信达生物 and 康方生物, among others [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in 三生制药, 固生堂, 巨子生物, 药明合联, 信达生物, and 中国生物制药, citing their strong potential for growth and favorable market conditions [3]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their promising clinical trial results and strategic partnerships, such as 三生制药's collaboration with Pfizer on global clinical trials [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for recommended companies, showing target prices and potential upside percentages. For example, 固生堂 has a target price of 48.28 with a 62% upside potential [2].

Core Viewpoint - Merck's decision to exchange part of its future sales rights for the antibody-drug conjugate sac-TMT for $700 million in R&D funding from Blackstone reflects the pressures of patent expirations and high R&D costs faced by major pharmaceutical companies, despite having over $8 billion in cash [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, Merck reported total revenue of $48.611 billion, which is roughly flat compared to the same period last year [3]. - Keytruda, Merck's leading product, generated sales of $23.303 billion, showing an 8% year-over-year growth, but its growth rate is slowing [4]. - The sales of the HPV vaccine Gardasil/Gardasil 9 fell by 40% year-over-year, totaling $4.202 billion in the first three quarters [5]. Strategic Moves - Merck's agreement with Blackstone involves a non-refundable payment of $700 million to fund sac-TMT's development until the end of 2026, with Blackstone entitled to a low to mid-single-digit royalty on net sales after regulatory approval [3][4]. - Merck plans to cut $3 billion in annual spending by the end of 2027, reallocating these savings to support new product launches and R&D investments [6]. Pipeline and Future Outlook - Sac-TMT, developed by Chinese company Kelun-Botai, is a key asset for Merck, with ongoing Phase III clinical trials across multiple indications, indicating Merck's confidence in the drug [7][9]. - The global pharmaceutical industry is facing significant patent cliff risks from 2023 to 2028, prompting companies like Merck to strategically manage resources and investments [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive change in the specialty raw materials sector, recommending companies such as Aorite and Prolo Pharmaceuticals [1]. - The report suggests that the Q3 performance of raw material pharmaceutical companies has reached a bottom, indicating potential recovery in profitability as high-cost inventory is consumed [19][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The recommended sub-industry rankings are: Innovative Drugs > Research Services > CXO > Traditional Chinese Medicine > Medical Devices > Pharmacies [3][12]. - Specific stock recommendations include: - From raw materials: Aorite, Qianhong Pharmaceutical - From Traditional Chinese Medicine: Zorui Pharmaceutical, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, Dong'e Ejiao - From medical devices: United Imaging Healthcare, Yuyue Medical - From AI pharmaceuticals: Jingtai Holdings - From GLP-1 sector: Lianbang Pharmaceutical, Borui Pharmaceutical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and Innovent Biologics - From PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies: Sanofi Biopharmaceuticals, Kangfang Biologics, and Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals - From innovative drugs: Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, HengRui Medicine, Zai Lab, Baillie Tianheng, Kelun Pharmaceutical, Dize Pharmaceutical, and Haizheng Pharmaceutical [3][15]. Industry Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical index has seen a year-to-date increase of 18.2%, while the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has increased by 76.6% [6][11]. - The report notes that the raw material pharmaceutical sector is under pressure due to high base effects and declining prices, with significant revenue impacts [19][20]. R&D Progress and Company Dynamics - Recent approvals include Novartis' radioligand therapy drug, which received dual indications for prostate cancer treatment [2]. - The report provides an overview of ongoing clinical trials and drug approvals, emphasizing the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical sector [30]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector has experienced adjustments, with notable stock performances including significant gains for companies like Hezhong China (+61%) and Wanze Shares (+30%) [11]. - The report also highlights the performance of various pharmaceutical stocks, noting both gains and losses in the market [16][17]. Raw Material Pricing Trends - The price of 6-APA has dropped significantly, from 370 RMB/kg in 2022 to 180 RMB/kg in October 2025, a decrease of 51% [23]. - The price of Amoxicillin has also decreased from 320 RMB/kg in January 2023 to 190 RMB/kg in October 2025, a decline of 41% [23]. Conclusion - The report suggests that as high-cost inventory is depleted, the gross margins for raw material producers are expected to improve, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for companies like Fuxiang Pharmaceutical and Lukang Pharmaceutical [19][23].

Core Insights - Merck, a leading global biopharmaceutical company, showcased its commitment to high-quality healthcare development in China at the 8th China International Import Expo with the theme "Innovative Science, Healthy Future" [1] - The company aims to enhance deep communication and collaboration within the pharmaceutical industry and accelerate the application of medical innovations in the Chinese market [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Merck has over 130 years of history and operates in various fields including prescription drugs, vaccines, and animal health products [3] - Since entering the Chinese market in 1992, Merck has viewed China as a key component of its global growth strategy [3] - The company has participated in the Import Expo for seven consecutive years, using it as a platform for innovation display, industry linkage, and value realization [3] Group 2: Product Innovations - At this year's Import Expo, Merck presented approximately 30 innovative drugs and vaccines targeting critical public health issues, including cancer, infections, diabetes, and rare diseases [4] - Several products made their debut at the expo, including innovative drugs for treating drug-resistant infections and rare diseases [4] - Merck's HPV vaccine was approved this year for male prevention of HPV-related cancers and diseases, and the company has received approvals for 32 indications for cancer treatment drugs as of August this year [4] Group 3: Collaborations and Community Engagement - Merck has engaged in multiple R&D collaborations with local pharmaceutical companies such as Kelun-Biotech and Hengrui Medicine, focusing on cardiovascular, metabolic, and oncology fields [4] - The company promotes health education, emphasizing that "everyone is the first responsible person for their own health" [5] - Merck is committed to accelerating innovation introduction and deepening local cooperation in China, contributing to the construction of a "Healthy China" [5]

Core Insights - Merck has initiated 15 global Phase 3 clinical trials for the TROP-2 ADC drug sacituzumab tirumotecan, enrolling 15,000 patients, indicating strong confidence in this therapeutic area [1] - Blackstone's investment of $700 million in the drug's clinical development reflects a strategic partnership aimed at mitigating the high risks associated with innovative drug development [1][2] - The collaboration allows Merck to balance innovation risks while potentially reaping significant rewards if Blackstone meets sales targets [3] Financial Implications - Blackstone's return on investment hinges on achieving a global sales target of approximately $17.5 billion, assuming a 4% royalty fee, to cover its initial $700 million investment [2] - The sales performance of Gilead's TROP-2 ADC drug suggests that reaching such targets may take considerable time, as Gilead's drug generated $1.315 billion in 2024 and $1.013 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] Strategic Collaboration Model - Blackstone's approach to partnering with Merck represents a shift in collaboration strategies within the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on individual pipeline projects rather than equity stakes or new company formations [6][8] - This model preserves operational autonomy for the drug company while enhancing funding efficiency, allowing for better control over research and development directions [7][8] - The collaboration reduces operational costs and avoids the complexities associated with establishing new entities, thereby accelerating the drug approval and commercialization processes [7][8]