⚫ 上周铜价再创历史新高，主因非美地区精铜供应将进一步 趋紧，Codelco对中国地区CIF长单美金升水报价高达350 美元/吨，印尼Grasberg铜矿大幅下调今明两年产量指引； 此外，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及美联储理事沃勒为首的官 员支持12月继续降息以应对脆弱的就业市场环境，美元指 数回落推升金属市场。基本面来看，海外中断矿山复产缓 慢，国内将严控精铜产能扩张，社会库存震荡下探，现货 升水走高，近月盘面C结构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铜周报 非美供应偏紧，铜价突破前高 核心观点及策略 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 12 月 1 日 ⚫ 整体来看，随着 ...

在全球供应紧张与美联储降息预期推动下，白银价格史上首次突破57美元/盎司，同时中国白银库存降至715.875吨的七年新低。这一行情不仅反映10月 份中国创纪录出口660吨白银引发的供需失衡，更印证供应驱动型涨价正从贵金属向工业金属蔓延，成为大宗商品的普遍趋势。 在全球供应趋紧与货币政策宽松预期的双重推动下，白银正成为大宗商品市场的新焦点，其价格已飙升至历史新高。这一强劲势头不仅反映了贵金属市 场的普遍乐观情绪，也凸显了特定于白银的供需失衡问题。 12月1日周一，现货白银价格史上首次突破每盎司57美元，日内涨约1%。而纽约商品交易所的白银期货也触及每盎司57.81美元的新高。 价格的迅猛上 涨，直接源于市场对供应短缺的深度担忧，以及交易员对美国联邦储备委员会即将降息的普遍押注。 最新的动态显示，中国的白银库存已降至七年来的最低水平，这与10月份创纪录的出口量直接相关。分析师指出，这种大规模的库存消耗是由跨境关税 套利活动引发的，加剧了全球市场的供应紧张局面。 对于投资者而言，白银的突破性行情并非孤立事件。它既是美联储鸽派转向预期下，整个贵金属板块走强的缩影，也呼应了如铜等工业金属市场同样面 临的供应瓶颈。这一系 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the influx of copper supply into the U.S. market due to tariff expectations is creating a "must rise" market structure for copper prices, presenting a significant opportunity for copper bulls, while Asian buyers may be forced to accept high premiums to secure supply [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The influx of metals into the U.S. market is leading to a risk of further depletion of copper inventories in other regions globally [3]. - The current market structure is characterized by tight supply and rising prices, which is expected to result in higher premiums for Asian buyers [3][5]. - The U.S. is now the largest consumer of copper globally, with significant premiums observed in New York futures prices compared to London benchmarks [5][6]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - The U.S. copper imports are projected to increase significantly in the coming months, with expectations of reaching record levels similar to those seen in Q2 2025 [4]. - The article notes that the current market dynamics, despite existing surpluses, are leading to price increases, indicating a unique situation in the copper market [4]. - There is a potential scenario where U.S. copper prices could rise to $12,000 or $15,000, which would create a supply shortage in China as buyers return from the Spring Festival [7]. Group 3: Premiums and Competition - Traders are currently pushing up premiums for deliverable copper, with some attempting to purchase Chilean copper at premiums exceeding $500 over LME prices [7]. - Codelco, the largest copper producer, has recently set benchmark premiums above $300 per ton for its customers in Korea and China, shocking Asian buyers [7]. - The article suggests that while Chinese buyers are hesitant about high prices now, they are likely to accept them in the near future as supply tightens [7].

Group 1 - Kostas Bintas, head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group, reiterated a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning of further depletion of copper inventories globally as large amounts of metal flood into the U.S. market [1] - Bintas described the current situation as a "great opportunity" for copper bulls, noting that profitable U.S. arbitrage trading is returning, leading to supply shortages outside the U.S. and driving copper prices higher [2] - He emphasized that from a mathematical perspective, the only answer to the current trends of tight supply and rising prices is that even Chinese buyers will have to pay higher premiums to secure supply [3] Group 2 - Mercuria expects a significant increase in U.S. copper imports in the coming months, predicting that the import rate in Q1 2026 will match the record level of over 500,000 tons seen in Q2 2025 [4] - The copper market has experienced volatility this year, with U.S. copper prices soaring earlier in the year due to tariff threats, leading to a massive flow of metal into the U.S. from other regions [4] - Bintas believes the current market structure, characterized by weak demand and surplus yet rising prices, is a "special dynamic" that could lead to shortages in the Chinese market as metal continues to flow to the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Bintas acknowledged that the bullish outlook is driven by U.S. policy, with the U.S. now being the largest copper consumer globally [5] - Market data shows that New York futures prices are significantly higher than London benchmark prices, leading to a bidding war among Asian buyers [5] - This market polarization has created a "dual-speed" mechanism, where LME and Shanghai copper contracts are primarily supported by Russian and Chinese metals, while metals deliverable to Comex enjoy high premiums [5] Group 4 - Traders have pushed up the premium for deliverable copper, with reports indicating some traders attempting to purchase Chilean copper at premiums exceeding $500 over LME prices [7] - Chile's Codelco has recently proposed a benchmark premium of over $300 per ton to customers in South Korea and China, shocking Asian buyers [7] - Bintas predicts that while Chinese buyers are currently hesitant about high prices, they will eventually accept them, and the market will likely settle above a $200 premium [7]

Group 1 - Kostas Bintas, head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group, reiterated a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning of potential depletion of copper inventories outside the U.S. due to a surge in metal inflow into the U.S. market [1] - Bintas highlighted that profitable arbitrage trading is returning, leading to supply shortages outside the U.S. and pushing copper prices higher, with even Chinese buyers likely needing to pay higher premiums to secure supply [1][2] - The current market dynamics, characterized by weak demand and surplus yet rising prices, is seen as a "special dynamic" that could lead to shortages in the Chinese market as metal continues to flow to the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The U.S. has become the largest consumer of copper globally, with significant premiums on New York futures prices compared to London benchmarks, driven by U.S. policy and tariff speculation [3] - The market is experiencing a "dual-speed" mechanism, where LME and Shanghai copper contracts are supported by Russian and Chinese metals, while metals deliverable to Comex enjoy high premiums [3] - Traders are pushing up premiums for deliverable copper, with some attempting to buy Chilean copper at premiums exceeding $500 over LME prices, indicating a significant price increase in the Asian market [4] Group 3 - Bintas anticipates a tighter market scenario if U.S. copper prices continue to rise to $12,000 or $15,000, which would lead to a significant outflow of Chinese copper cathodes [5] - As Chinese buyers return from the Spring Festival, they may find insufficient copper supply in the market, exacerbating the tightness [5]

定价权转移：美国成最大铜消费国 摩科瑞能源集团金属业务主管Kostas Bintas日前重申了对铜价的看涨预测，并发出警告称，随着大量金 属涌入美国市场，全球其他地区的铜库存面临进一步枯竭的风险。他将当前的局势形容为铜多头"一次 大好机会"。 据报道，Bintas指出，利润丰厚的美国套利交易正在卷土重来，这将导致美国以外地区供应短缺，推动 铜价这种全球基准工业金属价格"只能上涨"。他强调，如果仅仅从数学角度审视当前趋势，市场供应紧 张和价格上涨将是唯一的答案，最终甚至连中国买家也不得不支付更高的溢价以确保供应。 为套取价差利润，交易员正将大量金属运至报价更高的美国市场，从而改变了市场动态。这种溢价在很 大程度上受到对未来关税政策持续不确定性的推动。尽管特朗普在今年早些时候暂时豁免了对精炼铜的 征税，但他表示将在2026年下半年重新审视这一决定，这促使市场再次加速囤货。 在上海举行的一次重要行业会议结束时，Bintas接受采访表示，如果目前的资金流向持续下去，全球其 他地区将面临"无铜可用"的窘境。作为全球知名的金属交易商，摩科瑞能源集团在去年大举扩张金属市 场业务，并曾是今年早些时候大规模套利交易的主要参与者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper metal sector has seen significant gains in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with A-share copper metal concepts rising over 75% this year and Hong Kong stocks nearly doubling in value. The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, which has also positively impacted other precious metals like silver and gold [2][4][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The copper metal sector has been the largest gaining sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this year, with A-share copper concepts up over 75% and Hong Kong stocks nearly doubling [2]. - On a recent Friday, London copper futures surged by 2.25%, reaching a record high of $11,210.5 per ton, while domestic and U.S. copper prices also saw strong increases of 1.75% and 1.62%, respectively [2]. - Silver futures experienced an even larger increase of 5.15%, reaching a new historical high, while spot gold prices rose nearly 1.5%, surpassing $4,200 [4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - A system failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) led to a halt in trading, coinciding with silver's critical price breakout, which fueled conspiracy theories about market manipulation. This incident contributed to a surge in short-term speculative trading in precious metals [6][7]. - The 14th Asian Copper Week held in Shanghai from November 25-27 was a significant event, where major global copper companies discussed processing fees, leading to heightened tensions and expectations of rising copper prices due to supply chain pressures [9][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is facing a historically tight supply situation, with mining companies pushing for record high processing fees and halting illegal copper smelting capacity in China [9][10]. - The global copper supply is constrained by various factors, including production interruptions at major mines and a significant decline in average copper ore grades, which has increased extraction costs by nearly 80% over the past decade [18][19]. - Demand for copper is expected to surge due to the growth in industries such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and AI, with projections indicating a supply shortfall of approximately 10,000 tons by 2025 [20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The consensus in the market is that copper prices are likely to continue rising due to persistent supply constraints and increasing demand, with some estimates suggesting a potential copper shortfall of 2 to 4 million tons by 2030 [20]. - Major players in the copper industry, such as Zijin Mining, are well-positioned due to their comprehensive supply chain management and cost advantages, which could lead to higher valuations in the market [22][26]. - Institutional investors, including major banks, are still showing confidence in the copper sector, indicating a positive outlook for future investments [27][28].

【环球网财经综合报道】据彭博社等外媒报道，近日，摩科瑞能源集团全球金属与矿产业务负责人Kostas Bintas再度发表对铜价的看多预测，并警示近期涌 向美国的金属运输热潮可能抽干世界其他地区的库存。 近期，受纽约商品交易所铜期货高额升水吸引，交易员不断增加向美国运送铜的规模，以期捕捉套利机会。这一升水源于市场对未来潜在关税走向的不确定 性。本月初，美国地质调查局（USGS）公布的最新关键矿产清单首次将铜列入其中，而此前美国政府曾下令对关键矿产进口开展关税调查，清单内矿产可 能面临关税或贸易限制。 与此同时，一系列矿山生产中断加剧供应趋紧，全球铜价持续上行。当地时间本周五，伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜创下盘中历史新高，美国期铜亦显著 走强。Bintas称，随着利润丰厚的美国套利窗口重新开启并抽走其他地区的供应，铜价将进一步攀升，"如果世界继续这样下去，其他地区或将无铜可 用。"他在采访中未给出具体价格目标，但强调LME全球基准铜价只会继续上涨。 早在今年3月，Bintas就曾预测，因美国抽走全球供应，铜价或升至每吨12000或13000美元。摩科瑞的竞争对手IXM与Gunvor的高管近期也警告，接连发生 的矿 ...

Core Insights - The global copper market is experiencing unprecedented supply chain tensions, with miners pressuring smelters for record-low processing fees while refined copper premiums to China have surged to historic highs [1][2] - The intense negotiations between miners and smelters are indicative of a significant supply-demand imbalance exacerbated by uncertainties related to trade policies [1][2] - The situation is leading to a potential shift in global copper supply dynamics, with U.S. demand expected to attract a substantial amount of refined copper, creating a mismatch in global supply [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Miners currently hold the upper hand in negotiations due to years of overexpansion in smelting capacity and unexpected supply disruptions this year [2] - The ongoing negotiations have led to a stalemate, with some participants potentially withdrawing from the established pricing system, complicating supply planning for the year [2] - The Chinese metal industry association has expressed strong opposition to the unsustainable negative processing fees, reflecting the pressure on miners from overcapacity issues [2] Group 2: U.S. Market Influence - The expectation of significant refined copper inflows to the U.S. is driven by high prices resulting from ongoing import tariff expectations [3] - By the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. is projected to hold 90% of the global copper inventory, indicating a drastic shift in market dynamics [3] - As the U.S. absorbs more copper cathodes, other markets will face increasing shortages, with suppliers like Chile's Codelco offering record premiums of $350 per ton to Chinese customers [4] Group 3: Future Implications - The changing flow of refined copper is reshaping the global supply landscape, with rising premiums reflecting heightened regional supply tensions [4] - The intensity of this demand shift should not be underestimated, as it poses significant scarcity risks for copper markets outside the U.S. in the coming months [4]

Group 1 - Silver futures prices have reached a new high of $53.93 per ounce due to tightening supply and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Domestic silver inventory in China has dropped to a seven-year low, with exports exceeding 660 tons in October, marking a historical high [1][5] - The surge in exports is attributed to cross-border tariff arbitrage, which has intensified supply constraints [5][6] Group 2 - The overall precious metals market is supported by macroeconomic conditions, with traders betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [5][7] - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been reinforced by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, indicating a potential for further rate reductions [7] - The tightening supply theme is also affecting the industrial metals market, particularly copper, with predictions of a significant supply shortfall leading to potential price increases [8]