Core Viewpoint - Miniso (09896.HK) plans to spin off its toy brand TOP TOY for an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to better reflect TOP TOY's value and attract investors interested in the high-growth opportunities within the toy industry [1][2]. Company Overview - TOP TOY was incubated by Miniso in 2020, with Miniso holding approximately 86.9% of TOP TOY's issued share capital, making it the controlling shareholder [4]. - Unlike its competitor Pop Mart, which focuses on blind box products, TOP TOY offers a broader product range, including figurines, 3D models, and plush toys [4]. IP Strategy - TOP TOY's IP strategy relies heavily on a combination of licensed and proprietary IP, with licensed IP currently dominating. The company aims to creatively redevelop licensed IP to unlock new commercial potential [6]. - The company has increased its proprietary IP from 8 to 17 through acquisitions, while maintaining 43 licensed IPs, indicating room for growth in its overall IP portfolio [7]. Market Position and Growth - As of June 30, 2023, TOP TOY operated 293 stores globally, significantly fewer than Pop Mart's 571 stores. TOP TOY's registered membership exceeded 10 million, while Pop Mart added 13.04 million new members in the same period [8]. - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 679 million, 1.461 billion, and 1.909 billion RMB, respectively, with a notable increase in revenue in the first half of 2023 reaching 1.36 billion RMB [11][12]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's gross margin for the first half of 2023 was 32.4%, significantly lower than Pop Mart's 70.3% and Blok's 48.4%, indicating limited pricing power due to a lack of strong proprietary IP [13]. - The company reported a net profit of 180 million RMB in the first half of 2023, following profits of 212 million RMB in 2022 and 294 million RMB in 2024 [12]. Industry Context - The Chinese toy market is projected to grow from 20.7 billion RMB in 2019 to 58.7 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% [10]. - Despite the rapid growth of TOP TOY, it faces challenges in IP development and profitability compared to established players like Pop Mart, which has demonstrated stronger growth through its successful IP and fan economy [14].

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY, a subsidiary of Miniso, is pursuing an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a fundraising target of approximately $300 million, aiming for independent growth while still heavily reliant on Miniso for revenue [2][5][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - TOP TOY has rapidly expanded since opening its first store in 2020, reaching 299 stores by September 2025, and plans to enter international markets by Q4 2024 [3][9]. - The company achieved a GMV of 2.4 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 67.7% from 2022 to 2024 [9]. - In the first half of 2025, TOP TOY's sales revenue reached 1.36 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.5% [10]. Group 2: Revenue Sources - Miniso remains TOP TOY's largest customer, contributing 2.5 billion RMB, 7.8 billion RMB, and 9.2 billion RMB in revenue for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, accounting for 36.8%, 53.5%, and 48.3% of total revenue [7][8]. - The proportion of revenue from self-operated stores has remained stable at around 9% to 7.5% from 2022 to 2024, while sales to distributors have increased, with over half of revenue coming from this channel [21][22]. Group 3: Product Development and IP Strategy - TOP TOY focuses on three main product categories: figurines, 3D assembly models, and plush toys, with figurines generating 12.56 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, accounting for 68.8% of total revenue [14][16]. - The company has developed a multi-layered IP matrix consisting of 17 self-owned IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and 600 third-party IPs, although self-owned IPs still represent a small portion of total revenue [24][25]. - TOP TOY's self-developed products contributed nearly 50% of sales, the highest among Chinese collectible toy brands, with gross margins improving from under 20% in 2022 to approximately 32.4% in 2025 [20][18]. Group 4: Market Position and Competition - TOP TOY's supply chain management and cost control are superior to competitors, with inventory costs constituting 93.7% to 95.4% of total sales costs from 2022 to 2024 [19]. - The company is attempting to differentiate itself from competitors like Pop Mart by enhancing its IP development capabilities and focusing on product innovation rather than just expanding store numbers [23][29]. - TOP TOY is exploring new store formats, including flagship stores with themed cafes and workshops, to enhance customer engagement and social interaction [29].

Core Insights - The report highlights the advancements in Huawei's Ascend AI chip roadmap, indicating a significant leap in domestic computing power with the introduction of the Ascend 950 series, which is expected to enhance the capabilities of AI applications in various industries [6][7] - The collaboration between NVIDIA and Intel is set to reshape the data center landscape, with NVIDIA acquiring a stake in Intel to jointly develop customized data center and PC products, which will likely dominate the CPU market [7] Industry Commentary - The telecommunications sector is witnessing a transformation with Huawei's new Ascend AI chips, which are expected to accelerate the domestic AI chip market, with projections for increased shipments in 2026 [6] - The introduction of the Atlas 950 SuperPoD and other supernode products by Huawei signifies a shift towards more efficient and powerful computing architectures, potentially setting new standards in the industry [6] - The report notes that NVIDIA's investment in Intel will enhance the integration of GPUs and CPUs, which is crucial for the evolving demands of AI and data processing in modern data centers [7] Company Analysis - MegSmart (002881.SZ) reported a revenue of 1.886 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.5%, with a net profit of 84.17 million yuan, up 151.38% [16] - The company is focusing on expanding its wireless communication module applications and providing customized solutions, which is expected to strengthen its competitive edge in the market [16] - The growth in both domestic and international markets is driving MegSmart's revenue, with domestic sales reaching 1.354 billion yuan, a 56.5% increase year-on-year, and international sales at 532 million yuan, up 20.93% [16] Market Trends - The overall market saw an increase during the week of September 22-26, 2025, with notable gains in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext Index, indicating a positive sentiment in the technology sector [10] - Specific sectors such as liquid cooling and IoT experienced significant growth, with liquid cooling up by 7.16% and IoT by 5.95% [10] - The report suggests a continued focus on companies within the domestic computing power sector, including Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the advancements in AI and computing technologies [10]

Macro Strategy - The macroeconomic indicators show a marginal recovery in infrastructure work volume since September, with expectations for continued monetary policy support to stabilize the funding environment [1][21] - Strong economic data from the US has tempered interest rate cut expectations, with analysts raising growth forecasts for the US economy for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 [1][22] Fixed Income - The secondary market for capital bonds saw a weekly transaction volume of approximately 229.9 billion yuan, an increase of 52.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2] - The issuance of green bonds totaled 30.974 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 0.414 billion yuan from the previous week [3] Banking Sector - The bond investment yield for 42 listed banks in the first half of 2025 was approximately 1.42 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 3.82% from the same period in 2024 [4][6] - Different types of banks show varied performance, with state-owned banks maintaining relatively stable profitability due to their larger bond portfolios [6] Gas Industry - The gas industry is expected to benefit from cost optimization and a more rational pricing mechanism, with a focus on companies with US gas sources potentially mitigating tariff impacts [7] - Recommended companies include Xin'ao Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy, with dividend yields ranging from 4.0% to 6.4% [7] Retail Industry - The planned spin-off of TOP TOY from Miniso is anticipated to help realize value re-evaluation for the parent company, with TOP TOY's valuation reaching 10 billion HKD [8] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is witnessing a 12.9% week-on-week increase in passenger car sales, with significant developments from companies like Chery and Li Auto [9][10] - The industry is at a crossroads, transitioning from electric vehicle benefits to a focus on smart vehicle innovations [10] Power Equipment Industry - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow by 30-40% in the coming years, driven by new policies and market needs [11] - The lithium battery sector is also projected to see increased production, with prices expected to rise further [11] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The insurance sector is benefiting from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in sales of savings products [13] - Securities firms are expected to see growth from market recovery and favorable policy environments [13] Electronic Industry - The PCB industry is undergoing significant upgrades driven by AI and high-speed communication needs, with a projected market value of 94.7 billion USD by 2029 [14][15] - Key players are ramping up high-end production capabilities to meet increasing demand [15] Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with recommendations for companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [12] Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to perform well due to favorable macroeconomic narratives, with gold prices showing a significant increase [18]

Group 1 - TOP TOY aims to become the largest and most comprehensive global trendy toy brand, enhancing communication with young consumers through its offerings [2] - TOP TOY has submitted its main board listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors including JPMorgan, UBS, and CITIC Securities [2] - The trendy toy market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the market size projected to increase from 20.7 billion yuan in 2019 to 58.7 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% [2] Group 2 - As of September 19, 2025, TOP TOY operates 299 stores, including 15 overseas locations, and has developed 17 proprietary IPs and 43 licensed IPs [3] - Revenue from TOP TOY's proprietary IP products reached 6.8 million yuan in 2024 and 6.1 million yuan in the first half of 2025, while licensed IP revenue was 888.9 million yuan and 615 million yuan, respectively [3] - TOP TOY's revenue has shown consistent growth, with figures of 679 million yuan, 1.461 billion yuan, and 1.909 billion yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, and a revenue of 1.36 billion yuan in the first half of this year [3] Group 3 - The funds raised from the IPO will be used to diversify the IP matrix, enhance IP operational capabilities, and strengthen global omnichannel strategies [4] - The number of trendy toy-related companies in China has surged to 20,700 by June 2025, a tenfold increase from 1,760 in 2020, indicating a rapidly expanding market [4] - The trendy toy market is currently undergoing a "structural differentiation" phase, with consumers shifting towards rational consumption and higher expectations for product design and brand quality [5] Group 4 - TOP TOY leverages the mature supply chain and global retail network of its parent company, Miniso, to achieve rapid expansion at low costs [6] - The company's "collection store" model reduces reliance on single IPs, aligning with market demand for high cost-performance and diverse choices [6] - TOP TOY is transitioning from a "channel operator" to a "brand operator" by enhancing its proprietary IP matrix through acquisitions, reflecting a shift in the industry's value chain [6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant activity from September 21 to September 27, with 25 companies submitting prospectuses, 3 companies passing hearings, and 2 new stocks successfully listed. Group 1: Companies Submitting Prospectuses - A total of 25 companies submitted listing applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange during the specified period, including major players like 大洋电机, 天赐材料, and 格林美 [2][4][5] - Notably, 12 of these companies have already listed on the A-share market, indicating a trend towards dual listings in both A and H shares [2][4] Group 2: Companies Passing Hearings - Three companies successfully passed hearings: 长风药业, 挚达科技, and 金叶国际 [30] - 长风药业 focuses on biopharmaceuticals for respiratory diseases, with projected revenues of 6.08 billion RMB in 2024 [31] - 挚达科技 is the largest provider of home electric vehicle charging stations globally, with revenues of 5.9 billion RMB in 2024 [32] - 金叶国际 is a long-established electromechanical engineering contractor, specializing in HVAC systems [33] Group 3: Companies in the IPO Process - Five companies are currently in the IPO process, including 长风药业, 紫金黄金国际, 西普尼, 博泰车联, and 奇瑞汽车 [34] - 奇瑞汽车 successfully listed on September 25, with a first-day stock price increase of 13.75% [41][43] Group 4: Financial Performance of Companies - 大洋电机 reported total revenues of approximately 109.3 billion RMB in 2022, with a projected increase to 121.13 billion RMB in 2024 [5] - 天赐材料's revenues were approximately 223.17 billion RMB in 2022, expected to decline to 125.18 billion RMB in 2024 [6] - 格林美's revenues were around 293.92 billion RMB in 2022, projected to reach 332.00 billion RMB in 2024 [7] - 万辰集团, a leading snack and beverage retailer, reported revenues of 5.49 billion RMB in 2022, with a significant increase to 323.29 billion RMB in 2024 [10] Group 5: Market Trends and Insights - The trend of companies seeking dual listings in both A and H shares is becoming more prevalent, reflecting a strategic move to access broader capital markets [2][4] - The overall activity in the Hong Kong IPO market indicates a robust interest from companies looking to capitalize on the favorable market conditions [2][30]

Group 1 - Miniso (09896.HK) plans to spin off its toy brand TOP TOY for an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to better reflect TOP TOY's value and attract investors interested in the high-growth toy industry [2] - TOP TOY was incubated by Miniso in 2020 and is currently 86.9% owned by Miniso, positioning it as a significant player in the toy market [4] - The toy market in China is projected to grow from RMB 207 billion in 2019 to RMB 587 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% [11] Group 2 - TOP TOY's product focus differs from that of its competitor Pop Mart, as it covers a full range of products including blind boxes, figurines, and 3D models, while Pop Mart primarily focuses on blind boxes [4] - The company relies heavily on licensed IP, with 43 licensed IPs and 17 proprietary IPs, which limits its profit margins due to revenue sharing with IP owners [6][7] - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be RMB 6.79 billion, RMB 14.61 billion, and RMB 19.09 billion respectively, with significant growth in the first half of 2023 reaching RMB 13.60 billion [11][12] Group 3 - Despite its growth, TOP TOY's profitability is challenged by its reliance on licensed IP, leading to lower gross margins compared to Pop Mart, which has a gross margin of 70.3% compared to TOP TOY's 32.4% [13] - The company has seen a decrease in the proportion of revenue from self-developed products, which accounted for 47.2% in the first half of 2023, down from 53.6% in 2024 [13] - TOP TOY's store count reached 293 globally by mid-2023, significantly lower than Pop Mart's 571 stores, indicating slower expansion [8]

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has submitted its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in Miniso's dual-brand strategy following its dual listing in 2022 [1] - The company has shown impressive revenue growth, with projected revenues of 679 million, 1.461 billion, and 1.909 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [1] - TOP TOY achieved profitability in 2023, with net profits of 212 million and 294 million yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively [1] Revenue and Profitability - TOP TOY's revenue for the first half of 2023 increased by 58.5% to 1.36 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The company's gross profit margins have improved, with figures of 19.9%, 31.4%, and 32.7% from 2022 to 2024, and 32.4% for the first half of 2023 [1] Market Position and Growth - Established in December 2020, TOP TOY has become the largest and fastest-growing潮玩 brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - As of September 2025, TOP TOY operates 299 stores in China and 15 overseas, covering markets such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Japan [2] - The brand has over 10 million registered members, with a customer demographic primarily consisting of women aged 18-30 [2] Strategic Development - TOP TOY's growth strategy includes a dual approach of self-owned IP and licensed IP, with 30% of its products being self-owned IP, which has a gross margin of 65% [4] - The brand's product matrix includes a diverse range of items, such as figurines and 3D models, and it has successfully built a multi-layered IP matrix [4][5] Competitive Landscape - TOP TOY and Pop Mart represent two distinct business models in the潮玩 market, with TOP TOY focusing on an open platform strategy leveraging licensed IP, while Pop Mart emphasizes a closed ecosystem centered around self-owned IP [8] - The strategic differences between the two companies influence their growth paths and profitability, with TOP TOY rapidly expanding through a "borrowed" strategy while Pop Mart focuses on long-term IP value [9] Future Plans - The funds raised from the IPO will be used to enhance the IP matrix, improve global channel layouts, strengthen brand building, and enhance supply chain capabilities [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - TOP TOY, a subsidiary of Miniso, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the split expected to enhance the valuation of Miniso [4][10] - The rapid growth of the trendy toy industry has led to a doubling of TOP TOY's revenue in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 115%, and a projected revenue growth of 58.5% in the first half of 2025, reaching 1.36 billion yuan [4][10] - The Chinese trendy toy market is expected to grow from approximately 59 billion yuan in 2024 to about 213 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 21% from 2025 to 2030 [28] - TOP TOY is projected to be the largest trendy toy collection store in China by 2024, leveraging its advantages in product selection, supply chain, IP operation, and franchise resources [31] - The split listing of TOP TOY is anticipated to allow different types of investors to benefit and assist Miniso in achieving a revaluation [33] Summary by Sections Weekly Industry Insights - TOP TOY's listing application was submitted on September 26, 2025, and will operate independently post-split [4][10] - The company achieved profitability in 2023, with a projected profit growth of 40% in 2024, reaching 297 million yuan [4][10] Market Performance Review - From September 22 to September 28, the Shenwan retail index decreased by 4.32%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% [34][35] - Year-to-date performance shows the Shenwan retail index up by 1.91% [34][35] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies in the industry, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings [37]

TOP TOY已向港交所提交上市申请，摩根大通、瑞银、中信证券为其联席保荐人。 TOP TOY是中国规模最大、增速最快的潮玩集合品牌，2024年GMV达人民币24亿元，其中自研产品收 入占比近50%。公司GMV复合年增长率超过50%，是增长最快的中国潮玩集合品牌，也是年GMV突破 10亿元用时最短的品牌。 TOP TOY已建立起潮玩全产业链一体化平台，拥有强大的产品设计、IP运营能力，构建了多层次的IP矩 阵和多样化的产品矩阵。该公司品牌影响力高，拥有规模领先、活跃且多元化的客群，并通过线上线下 （300959）渠道推广潮玩文化。 截至2025年6月30日，TOP TOY拥有超1000万注册会员，是潮玩行业中会员规模最大的公司之一。 ...