Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the agriculture sector [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the SW Agriculture sector achieved a total profit of 13.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1049%, with significant contributions from the breeding, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors, accounting for 59%, 16%, and 15% of profits respectively [10][11] - The breeding sector saw a profit of 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 254%, driven primarily by pig farming, which generated 7.615 billion yuan, up 242% year-on-year [10][11] - The feed and animal health sectors reported profits of 2.143 billion yuan and 512 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 676% and 34% [10][11] - The planting sector experienced a profit of 800 million yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, influenced by declining grain prices [10][11] Summary by Sections Breeding Sector - The average price of lean pigs was 14.69 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork was 20.59 yuan/kg, down 1.4% [12][13] - The profit from self-breeding pigs decreased to 85.05 yuan per head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 48.53 yuan per head [14][15] - The average price of broiler chickens was 7.48 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous week, and the average price of chicken products remained stable at 8.9 yuan/kg [25][27] Feed and Animal Health - The feed sector's profit growth was supported by the performance of the breeding sector, with significant increases in profits from poultry and aquatic feeds [10][11] - The pet food segment also showed strong performance, achieving a profit of 330 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year [10] Planting Sector - The planting sector's profit decline was attributed to lower prices for corn and wheat, which fell by 11% and 14% year-on-year, respectively [10][11] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [11] Market Trends - The agriculture sector underperformed the broader market by 0.1 percentage points, with a decline of 0.6% [8][9] - The feed sector saw a slight increase of 1.65% during the same period [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a steady decline in costs and has sufficient breeding stock reserves, indicating a strong potential for high earnings realization [5][6] - The first quarter of 2025 reported revenue of 1.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 130 million yuan, up 193.91% year-on-year [5][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 918 million, 1.411 billion, and 2.383 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.80, 2.77, and 4.67 yuan [5][6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.52 billion yuan from pig farming, with a total of 833,000 pigs sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.40% [6] - The complete cost of production in Q1 2025 was 13.38 yuan per kilogram, with a target to keep the annual cost below 13 yuan per kilogram [6] - As of March 2025, the company had a breeding stock of 176,000 pigs, with expectations to exceed 230,000 by the end of the year [6] Leather Business - The leather business reported a revenue of 54 million yuan in Q1 2025, a significant increase of 280% year-on-year, contributing to a reduction in losses [7] - The company has a strong cash position with 615 million yuan in cash and a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.88% [7] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 20.04 yuan, with a market capitalization of 10.222 billion yuan [2] - The price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 11.1, 7.2, and 4.3 respectively [5][9]

牧原股份此前曾在业绩预告中表示，公司一季度业绩大增的主要原因是生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较去年同期上升，且生猪养殖成本较去年同期下降。 其中，营收达到200亿的有3家，营收同比增长的有9家，正邦科技（002157）以108.22%的同比增幅领跑全场；归母净利润超过20亿的有2家，牧原股份 （002714）以44.91亿元稳居榜首；归母净利润实现同比增长的有8家，且除了东瑞股份（001201）增速为93.31%外，其余公司增速均超100%，神农集团 （605296）更是以6510.85%的增速成为当之无愧的"黑马"。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 营业收入 | 营业收入同比变化 | 归母净 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | (%) | | | 002714. SZ | 牧原股份 | 360. 61 | 37. 26 | 44 | | 300498. SZ | 温氏股份 | 243. 18 | 11. 34 | 20 | | 000876. SZ | 新希望 | 244. 17 | 2. 13 | 4. | | 605296. SH | 神农集团 | 1 ...

| 证券代码：603477 | 证券简称：巨星农牧 | 公告编号：2025-041 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113648 | 债券简称：巨星转债 | | 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 关于回购股份事项前十大股东和前十大无限售条件 股东持股情况的公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 23 日召开 了第四届董事会第二十五次会议，会议审议并通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式 回购股份方案的议案》，具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 4 月 24 日通过指定信息披 露媒体披露的《乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司关于以集中竞价方式回购股份的方案》 （公告编号：2025-033）。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7 号——回购股份》等相关规定，现将董事会公告回购股份决议前一个交易日（即 2025 年 4 月 23 日）登记在册的公司前十大股东和前十大无限售条件股东的名称 及持股数量、比例情况 ...

1Q25 业绩符合我们预期 巨星农牧公布1Q25 业绩：1Q25 营收同比+73.4%至16.45 亿元，归母净利同比+2.68 亿元至1.3 亿元， 1Q25 商品猪成本持续下降，出栏量、销售均价较同期增加，支撑利润上行。公司业绩符合我们预期。 发展趋势 1Q25 公司生猪销量同比快速增长，以商品猪销售为主。1）收入端，1Q25生猪销售收入15.22 亿元，公 司收入增长因商品猪出栏量价均同比增长。 维持2025/26 年净利润预测4.7/8.6 亿元。当前股价对应25/26 年23/13 倍P/E，维持跑赢行业评级。维持 目标价23 元，对应2025/26 年25/14 倍P/E，对应9%上行空间。 风险 非瘟等动物疫病风险；公司出栏低于预期风险；饲料成本上涨风险。 出栏重回扩张通道，较低成本构建高质量发展基础。1）降本增效：公司制定2025 年商品猪完全成本目 标13 元/千克以内，我们判断随公司产能爬坡，叠加技术创新及管理优化，成本控制目标具备达成基 础。2）资金稳健：轻资产养殖模式叠加低成本优势，资金状况有望保持稳健。公司坚持多种形式的、 轻资产为主的高质量种场发展模式，以及高质量寄养为主的育肥发展 ...

考虑2025 年猪价或低于2024 全年,我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为72.67/89.36/108.63 亿元,同 比分别+19.55%/+22.98%/+21.57%,归母净利润分别为4.81/7.82/11.12 亿元,同比分 别-7.33%/+62.76%/+42.18% ,EPS 分别为0.94/1.53/2.18 元/股。公司出栏增速较高且成本水平偏低,维 持"买入"评级。 风险提示:发生疫病的风险,生猪价格长期处于低位的风险,原材料价格波动的风险。 生猪出栏高增,板块实现较好盈利 2025Q1 公司销售生猪83.30 万头(同比+63%),其中销售商品猪81.66 万头,商品猪销售均价15.00 元/公斤。 受益于猪价同比回升,以及公司成本持续下降,公司该板块实现较好盈利。展望全年,我们认为公司2025 全 年出栏目标有望达成,板块有望维持较好利润。 出栏有望加速,维持"买入"评级 事件 公司披露2025 年一季度报告,第一季度实现营收16.45 亿元,同比增长73.45%;归母净利润1.30 亿元,同比扭 亏为盈。 猪价同比回升叠加成本改善,利润率同比提升2025Q1 公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights strong performance in Q1 and maintains a long-term positive outlook for the pet sector [3] - The pig price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a long-term bearish outlook for 2025 due to increased supply [5][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to tariff impacts and supply chain adjustments [6][28] - The animal health sector is poised for valuation recovery driven by improved downstream demand and expansion opportunities [7][39] - The planting sector is experiencing a significant decrease in grain imports, which may affect pricing dynamics [8][44] - The feed sector remains at a low level, with expectations of increased industry concentration [9][47] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong domestic brand performance [10][52] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly downwards, with a long-term bearish trend anticipated for 2025 due to increased production capacity [5][14] - As of April 24, the average pig price was 14.96 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly increase [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may benefit from tariff impacts, with a potential price increase due to supply chain disruptions [6][28] - The industry is expected to stabilize at low production levels, leading to stable profitability [6][29] Animal Health - The animal health sector is seeing improved performance, with significant revenue growth reported by leading companies [7][39] - The prices of key raw materials are rising, which may enhance the performance of related companies [7][39] Planting Sector - A notable decline in grain imports was recorded in March, with a 73.5% year-on-year decrease [8][44] - The prices of major grains have shown some recovery, with corn priced at 2220 CNY/ton as of April 25 [8][44] Feed Industry - Feed prices are currently low, with a slight decrease in the price of pig feed [9][47] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for leading companies [9][49] Pet Industry - The pet market in China reached a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [10][52] - Domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share, with significant growth reported for leading pet food brands [10][56]

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 2)增重利润决定临界出栏均重，季节性等需求因素产生扰动。决定散户是否 销售生猪的机制是若其商品猪延后一天出栏，该天是否有超额收益，即当日 收益是否为正。当压栏边际收益（当日售价-当日增重成本）为负时，压栏 猪只或将集中释放，核心触发条件为猪价与出栏均重坐标跌破临界出栏均重 曲线。而饲养温度及原材料价格影响料肉比进而影响增重成本、标肥需求影 响销售均价，以上因素共同导致增重利润产生波动。 2、现阶段如何看待行业压栏、二次育肥？ 1)供应阶段性缺口&库存需求驱动春节后猪价偏强。供应端：集团场 2024 年 10-12 月提前超量出栏（完成率 104%-106%），阶段性透支年后供应，叠 加散户春年前集中出售大猪，导致春节后大猪缺口显著，标肥价差上行，刺 激新一轮压栏，出栏均重持续增长。2）需求端：屠宰场因库容低位主动分 割入库，3 月轮储 2.27 万吨，叠加二育资金进场（4 月中旬二育销量占比 9.73%，栏位利用率升至 45%），带动短期猪价震荡偏强。 2)库存累积与需求转弱埋下抛售隐患。供应压力加剧：截至 2025 年 3 月小 猪（50kg 以下）存栏达 73.7 万头，处于近 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][69] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price has been fluctuating, with the average price on April 24 being 14.92 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week. The second batch of fattening pigs accounted for 9.73% of the total sales, an increase of 4.38 percentage points compared to the previous ten days [2][12][34] - In the poultry sector, the white chicken price has slightly adjusted downwards due to limited demand as the May Day stocking approaches its end. The average price for meat chickens was 7.47 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [3][36] - The seed industry is seeing enhanced regulatory activities focusing on intellectual property protection, which is expected to improve market order and support the supply of essential agricultural products [3][48] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pig price has shown fluctuations, with a slight recovery in average weight. The average weight of pigs sold was 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week. The slaughter volume has slightly increased, with an average daily slaughter of 139,600 pigs, up 2.16% week-on-week [2][12][16][24] - The price difference between different weight categories of pigs is narrowing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][24][34] Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing a slight price adjustment due to seasonal factors and limited demand. The average price for chicken chicks was 2.85 yuan/bird, down 0.12 yuan/bird week-on-week [3][36][40] - The egg price has continued to rise, with an average price of 7.25 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg week-on-week [3][36] Seed Industry & Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture has initiated a regulatory campaign to enhance intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to support the supply of essential agricultural products [3][48] - The report notes a strong short-term trend in soybean meal prices, with the current price at 3,580.00 yuan/ton, up 78.00 yuan/ton week-on-week, driven by supply constraints [3][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector currently has a large safety margin due to sufficient trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The report highlights that the supply of breeding sows continues to decline, with the number of breeding sows at 40.39 million heads, down 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs has decreased to 15.2 yuan/kg in March, reflecting a 3.6% decline month-on-month, while the average price of piglets has increased by 2.8% month-on-month [18][34] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential supply-demand balance [35] - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19.476 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14] - The average profit per pig has decreased to 84 yuan per head for large-scale farms and 54 yuan per head for smallholders, down from 131 yuan and 75 yuan respectively in February [18] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the recovery in pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and veterinary products, with a recommendation to focus on Haida Group [3] - In the planting chain, the report suggests that the strong grain prices due to Sino-US tariff disputes present investment opportunities, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] 3. Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 0.16% compared to a 0.56% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [26] - The report details that the animal health, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors saw varying performance, with animal health up 5.42% and poultry farming down 1.22% [26][29]