期货研究报告|聚酯产业链专题 2025-12-26 PX 供应还有多少提升空间——国内篇 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 梁琦 liangqi@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03148380 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 在对明年上半年供需偏紧的预期下，近期 PX 价格强势上涨，长短流程经济性都得到了 极大的提升，PXN 突破 360 元/吨，创下近五年 12 月的最高记录，也是 2024 年 6 月中 以来的高点，纸货 5 月 PXN 已经达到 380 美元/吨附近。当前 PX 在聚酯产业链中利润 表现最好，随着 PX 的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The PVC industry is rated as "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, PVC may continue to face inventory accumulation, but the magnitude will narrow, and the toughest period for the industry may have passed [3][71] - The cost side will provide a relatively solid bottom - support for PVC, but the overall oversupply situation remains, restricting the upward elasticity and space of PVC prices. The main operating range of the PVC main contract in 2026 is expected to be between 4,400 yuan/ton and 5,400 yuan/ton [3][71] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction before the Spring Festival is difficult to ease, and the post - festival spring centralized maintenance may be a key catalyst for the phased market [3][71] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 PVC Market Review - In 2025, the domestic PVC market was dominated by the core contradiction of increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, with the price center moving down again and hitting a record low in Q4. The main contract price ranged from 4,220 yuan/ton to 5,373 yuan/ton [12] - The market trend in 2025 can be divided into three stages: marginal improvement in H1 with price pressure from new capacity expectations; a strong rebound around July driven by policy expectations and coal price increases; and a return to fundamental pricing in Aug - Dec with increased supply and pessimistic export expectations [12][13] 2. Supply: PVC Industry Supply May Grow at a Low Pace in 2026 - **2.1 New Capacity Investment Pressure Will Significantly Ease in 2026** - In 2025, there was a small peak of new capacity investment, with a net increase of 220 tons/year and a capacity growth rate of about 7.4%. From January to November 2025, the total PVC output was 2,223.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [21] - In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua's 30 tons/year new device is planned to be put into production, with a capacity growth rate of only 1.0% without considering the elimination of backward capacity. There will be a structural vacuum period of new capacity investment from 2026 - 2027 [24] - **2.2 The Market Still Needs to Digest the Output Climbing Pressure of Previous New Capacities in H1** - New devices in 2025 were mostly put into production in Q3 and Q4, and their output contribution will be released in 2026. The market, especially in H1 2026, still needs to digest the real - world supply pressure [26] - **2.3 Low Profits Will Limit the Upward Elasticity of PVC Supply** - Under the long - term low - profit pattern, the number of eliminated and long - stopped PVC devices continues to increase. Since 2023, nearly 200 tons/year of capacity has been long - stopped or eliminated [29] - Currently, both single - product and chlor - alkali comprehensive profits of PVC are under pressure, but the industry maintains a high operating rate due to winter conditions. If profits do not improve, enterprises may increase maintenance in spring 2026, alleviating supply pressure [31][32] - Overall, in 2026, the PVC industry will shift to a new stage of optimizing and digesting existing capacity. With low profits, increased maintenance may offset the output climbing pressure in H1, and the output is expected to grow by about 2.5% year - on - year [36] 3. Domestic Demand: The Downturn in Real Estate Continues to Drag Down PVC Demand Recovery - In 2025, the real estate market was in structural adjustment pain. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year decline in commercial housing sales area was 7.8%, new construction area was 20.5%, and completion area was 18.0%. The real estate industry will focus on high - quality development, and its recovery may take time, suppressing PVC demand elasticity, but the drag may ease [37] - In 2025, PVC downstream demand showed significant structural differentiation. Products highly related to construction, such as pipes and profiles, had low operating rates, while film products in consumer goods and other fields showed strong demand resilience [42] - In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of Chinese PVC floor coverings decreased by 10.9% year - on - year, affected by trade protectionism and the downturn in the developed countries' real estate cycle. In 2026, with the expected interest rate cuts in the US and Europe, PVC floor covering exports may improve marginally [46] - In 2025, from January to November, the apparent demand growth rate of PVC was - 1.8%, and the real demand growth rate was about - 1.2%. In 2026, PVC demand may end negative growth and be roughly the same as in 2025 [50] 4. Exports Will Be the Core Variable Affecting the PVC Supply - Demand Pattern in 2026 - In the context of weak demand, exports became an important way to digest domestic surplus PVC capacity. From January to November 2025, the cumulative PVC exports were 3.509 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.2%, and the export share increased from 11% to 16% [54] - **4.1 Removal of Trade Barriers in India** - India is still the largest single export market for Chinese PVC. From January to November 2025, the export volume to India was 1.421 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. India's PVC demand has great growth potential, but domestic capacity expansion is restricted by raw material supply and power resources [56][57] - In November 2025, India removed the BIS certification and anti - dumping measures for PVC. Despite possible over - drawn short - term demand, exports to India are still expected to grow at a high rate [57] - **4.2 Comprehensive Growth in Non - Indian Exports** - While exports to India increased by 14.2%, its proportion in total exports decreased from 50.9% in 2024 to 40.5%. Exports to Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa also increased significantly [63] - Overseas supply is constrained by slow short - term capacity release and the clearance of high - cost capacity. The current export growth is partly due to the "source substitution" effect of the low domestic price [63][64] - In 2026, exports will be a key variable for balancing the PVC supply - demand pattern. Although there are uncertainties in trade policies, exports still have room for growth, with an expected annual export growth rate of 20%. However, the "price - for - volume" model is fragile, and exports are more likely to play a "bottom - supporting" role [69][70] 5. Investment Recommendations - Based on supply - demand estimates, PVC may continue to face inventory accumulation in 2026, but the magnitude will narrow. The cost side will provide bottom - support, but the oversupply situation restricts price increases. The main operating range of the PVC main contract in 2026 is expected to be between 4,400 yuan/ton and 5,400 yuan/ton. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and post - festival spring centralized maintenance may be a key market catalyst [71]

Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical sector continued to surge on December 26, with the chemical ETF (516020) reaching an intraday high of 2.23% and closing up 1.88% [1] - Key stocks in the lithium battery sector saw significant gains, with Enjie Co., Ltd. rising over 9%, and other companies like Duofluoride, Xingyuan Material, and Guangwei Composite increasing by over 8% [1][2] Group 2: Capital Inflows - The basic chemical sector experienced a substantial net inflow of over 8.7 billion yuan from major funds on the same day, ranking third among 30 sectors [1] - Over the past five trading days, the basic chemical sector has seen net inflows exceeding 44 billion yuan, placing it second among the 30 sectors [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The lithium carbonate market is facing intensified competition, with some companies halting production for maintenance due to significant discrepancies between long-term contract prices and spot prices [3] - Analysts suggest that recent actions by leading companies in the lithium battery materials sector may trigger a chain reaction in pricing and production adjustments [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - China Galaxy Securities forecasts a negative growth in capital expenditure for the chemical industry starting in 2024, with potential supply-side contractions due to the "anti-involution" trend and the clearing of outdated overseas capacities [3] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which, combined with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, could open up demand for chemical products [3] - Dongxing Securities anticipates an improvement in the chemical industry's supply-demand dynamics by 2026, suggesting a favorable investment environment [4] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The chemical ETF (516020) is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on the chemical sector's rebound, as it tracks a comprehensive index covering various sub-sectors [4] - The ETF has a significant allocation to large-cap leading stocks, providing exposure to strong investment opportunities while also covering other segments like phosphate and fluorine chemicals [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing significant gains, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 1.88% as of the report, driven by strong performances in lithium battery and fluorochemical stocks [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) reached a maximum intraday increase of 2.23% [1][8]. - Key stocks in the sector include Enjie Co., which surged over 9%, and other notable performers like Dofluorid, Xingyuan Material, and Guangwei Composites, all rising over 8% [1][8]. - The basic chemical sector attracted significant capital inflow, with over 8.7 billion yuan net inflow on the day, ranking third among 30 sectors [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The lithium carbonate market is facing intensified competition, with reports of some companies halting production for maintenance due to significant price discrepancies between long-term contracts and spot prices [3][11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for order regulation and innovation in key industries such as new energy vehicles and lithium batteries [3][11]. - Analysts predict that the chemical industry will see a negative growth in capital expenditure starting in 2024, with supply-side contractions expected due to the "anti-involution" trend and the clearing of outdated capacities [11]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics and rising industry prosperity [11][12]. - The chemical ETF (516020) is recommended for efficient exposure to the sector, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [12][13]. - Key investment directions include sectors poised for recovery, leading companies driven by capital expenditure and R&D, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand or domestic substitution [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the advantages of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites over other orbital satellites, including lower launch costs, shorter transmission delays, reduced path loss, higher data transmission rates, and smaller receiver device designs. The global satellite internet market is expected to reach $30 billion by 2025, with continued rapid growth [1] - Unique performance requirements for satellites involve various chemical materials, including structural materials like carbon fiber reinforced resin composites, titanium sponge, and metals such as chromium and niobium-tantalum. Thermal control materials include polyimide (PI), polyester film (PET), and polyester mesh [1] - As of December 26, 2025, the CSI Subsector Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) rose by 1.47%, with constituent stocks such as Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812) increasing by 10.00%, Guangwei Composites (300699) by 9.58%, and Duofuduo (002407) by 7.44%. The Chemical ETF (159870) also increased by 1.37%, marking a six-day consecutive rise [1] Group 2 - The Chemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Subsector Chemical Industry Theme Index, which consists of seven indices including subsector non-ferrous and mechanical indices. The index samples larger, more liquid listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the related subsector [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Subsector Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical (600309), Salt Lake Industry (000792), and Tianqi Materials (002709), among others, with the top ten accounting for 45.41% of the total index weight [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Tongjia Machinery Co., Ltd. has established itself as a leading player in the plastic extrusion machinery industry in China, achieving significant market share and technological advancements despite the dominance of foreign competitors [1][3]. Group 1: Company Achievements - Tongjia Machinery has maintained a position among the top three in China's plastic extrusion machinery industry for seven consecutive years, with over 60% market share in its main product lines [1][8]. - The company has successfully developed a polymer melt weaving biaxial orientation technology, breaking the monopoly of foreign companies in the global geosynthetic materials equipment market [2][3]. - The company’s products are utilized in critical domestic sectors such as railways, aerospace, and infrastructure, and have been exported to over 30 countries, showcasing their global adaptability [3][8]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Tongjia Machinery has made significant strides in the development of high-pressure IV-type hydrogen storage bottles, overcoming previous technological barriers and achieving industry-leading performance in hydrogen permeability [4][5]. - The company has implemented a remote big data control system that enhances equipment fault response times from days to hours, revolutionizing traditional service models [6]. - The introduction of biodegradable material processing equipment has led to a fivefold reduction in overall costs, addressing environmental concerns associated with traditional plastics [6][7]. Group 3: Research and Development - The company invests over 6% of its sales revenue in R&D annually, significantly higher than the industry average, and has established multiple innovation platforms in collaboration with academic institutions [7][8]. - Tongjia Machinery has accumulated over 160 patents, with more than 20 patents specifically in the lightweight PLA field, demonstrating its commitment to innovation and industry leadership [7][8]. - The company’s products have penetrated high-end sectors such as aerospace, high-speed rail, and new energy vehicles, further solidifying its market position [8].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a peak intraday increase of 1.53% before settling at a 0.59% gain [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Guangwei Composites, which surged over 7%, and Enjie Co., which rose over 4% [1] - Other notable performers include Duofu Duo, Cangge Mining, Zhongjian Technology, and Guangdong Hongda, all experiencing gains of over 2% [1] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the sub-sector chemical index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [4] - The ETF provides an efficient way for investors to gain exposure to the chemical sector, including key areas like phosphate and fluorine chemicals [4] - Current valuation metrics indicate that the chemical sector offers reasonable long-term investment opportunities, with the ETF's index price-to-book ratio at 2.55, positioned at the 48.43 percentile over the past decade [3] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the lithium battery supply will transition into a prosperous phase, driven by strong end-demand from AI and energy storage, while supply growth slows due to reduced capital expenditures [2] - The chemical industry is expected to experience a cyclical turning point by 2026, supported by policy catalysts and a recovery in demand [3] - The overall sentiment indicates a marginal improvement in the chemical industry's outlook, with positive changes in supply, demand, and inventory dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The chemical industry has experienced a prolonged downturn since 2022, with companies now positioned at the bottom of the profitability cycle, indicating significant potential for recovery as production capacity has expanded since 2020 [1] - Wanhua Chemical's core businesses, including polyurethane and fine chemical new materials, are expected to see substantial production increases by 2025, with growth rates of 131%, 255%, and 381% compared to Q1-Q3 2020 [1] - Hualu Hengsheng's production in organic amines, fertilizers, and new energy materials is projected to grow by 45%, 109%, 161%, and 57% respectively by 2025, with significant profitability improvements anticipated through technological upgrades [1] Group 2 - Longbai Group's titanium dioxide and titanium concentrate production is expected to increase by 68% and 58% respectively by the first half of 2025, with significant capacity expansions underway [2] - Boyuan Chemical's production of soda ash and sodium bicarbonate is projected to grow by 388% and 59% respectively by the first half of 2025, with new projects contributing to future growth [2] - Xingfa Group's production in specialty chemicals, pesticides, fertilizers, and organic silicon is expected to grow by 75%, 51%, 131%, and 118% respectively by 2025, indicating strong market demand [2] Group 3 - As of December 26, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index has risen by 1.04%, with notable increases in stocks such as Guangwei Composites and Duofu Du, reflecting positive market sentiment [3] - The CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index is designed to track the performance of major listed companies in the chemical sector, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 45.41% of the index [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yantai City is actively implementing comprehensive reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming to enhance economic development and establish itself as a leading city in northern China with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1][2]. Economic Development and Reform - Yantai's GDP has crossed three trillion yuan milestones, becoming the first prefecture-level city in northern China to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2023 [2]. - The city has developed a modern industrial system, with 252 enterprises contributing nearly 70% of the industrial output value while representing less than 10% of the total number of industrial enterprises [2]. - Yantai has been recognized for its strategic emerging industries, with the establishment of several significant industrial clusters, including one valued at 300 billion yuan and another at 200 billion yuan [2]. Institutional and Market Reforms - The city has implemented significant reforms in state-owned enterprises, reducing the number from 19 to 12 and optimizing their operations [3]. - Yantai's state-owned enterprises are expected to see asset growth of 111%, revenue growth of 119%, and profit growth of 15% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3]. Business Environment and Financial Reforms - Yantai has introduced over 600 innovative measures to improve the business environment, addressing more than 6,300 feedback requests from enterprises [4]. - The city has maintained its position as the top city in China for fiscal transparency for eight consecutive years [4]. Regional Development and Urban Planning - Yantai is advancing urban planning reforms, with significant projects underway to improve urban infrastructure and living conditions for nearly 500,000 households [5]. - The city has established 126 rural revitalization zones to support agricultural and rural development [6]. Green and Low-Carbon Development - Yantai has been recognized as a national pilot city for carbon peak initiatives and has made significant strides in clean energy development [7]. - The city has achieved air quality standards for eight consecutive years and has been awarded the International Garden City Gold Award [7]. Social Development and Public Services - Yantai has implemented reforms in education, healthcare, and social security, with a focus on improving employment support for key demographics [8]. - The city has achieved a 95% coverage rate for preschool education and has established a comprehensive elderly care service system [8]. Safety and Governance - Yantai has developed a robust social governance framework, receiving recognition as a model city for social governance modernization [9]. - The city has established a collaborative mechanism between government and judicial bodies to enhance legal and social stability [9]. Party Leadership and Reform Direction - Yantai emphasizes the integration of party leadership in all reform processes, ensuring alignment with national and provincial directives [11]. - The city is committed to continuous reform efforts, focusing on systemic integration and practical outcomes to support its development goals [12].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the chemical ETF (516020) opening strong and reaching a maximum intraday increase of 1.53%, closing up 0.59% [1][8] - Key stocks in the sector include Guangwei Composite, which surged over 7%, and Enjie shares, which rose over 4% [1][8] - Other notable performers include Duofluor, Cangge Mining, and Zhongjian Technology, all increasing by over 3% [1][8] Group 2 - According to Guojin Securities, the lithium battery supply has transitioned from a surplus phase to an active replenishment phase, with a recovery expected in 2024 and a significant rebound by 2026 [2][10] - The demand is driven by AI and energy storage, while supply growth is slowing due to reduced capital expenditure, leading to a supply-demand mismatch [2][10] - The industry is shifting from price wars to price stabilization, which is expected to enhance profitability in the upstream materials sector [2][10] Group 3 - The chemical sector currently presents a favorable valuation, with the chemical ETF's underlying index price-to-book ratio at 2.55, positioned at the 48.43 percentile over the past decade [3][10] - The sector is anticipated to experience negative growth in capital expenditure starting in 2024, with supply expected to contract due to the "anti-involution" trend and the clearance of outdated overseas capacity [4][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which, combined with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, is expected to open up demand for chemical products [4][11] Group 4 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, covering various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [5][12] - Investors can also access the chemical ETF through linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for efficient exposure to the sector [5][12]