期货研究院 聚酯产业链市场 2026年年报 聚酯产业链：潮分两岸阔 利启新程长 ——2025 年聚酯产业链市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 俞杨烽 Z0015361 ➢ 摘要： 2025 年，聚酯产业链在宏观情绪波动、关税冲突、成本震荡、装置变动和需求偏弱等因素影 响下，价格波动加剧，重心进一步下移，并且一度创下 2007 年以来历史新低。 展望 2026 年聚酯产业链价格走势，观点如下： 成本：成本预计维持相对偏弱的宽幅震荡。原油供过于求，油价将进一步承压下行，预计布伦 特原油主要波动区间 50-75 美元/桶。 PX：供需趋紧，尤其是二季度在装置检修的推动下，PX 价格将表现偏强，PX-Nap 价差进一 步走阔，但绝对价格仍将受成本牵制维持偏弱区间震荡。操作上，大趋势以逢低做多为主，并把 握因季节性、成本走弱等原因给予的阶段性做空机会，价格主要波动区间为 5400-7700 元/吨。 套利方面，建议做多基差，目标位 300-600 元/吨；PX05-09 价差预计震荡走阔，建议逢低做多， 目标位 100-200 元/吨。关注：宏观政策、成本走势和下游装置变动。 PTA：无新增 ...

此外，下游聚酯环节也表现出较强韧性。冬季寒潮带动纺服订单改善，聚酯利润随之修复，推动工厂开 工积极性提升，进而间接支撑PTA开工传导至PX需求。11月两大宏观事件也提振了市场信心：一是中 美暂停加征关税至2026年11月10日；二是印度取消对PTA、乙二醇、涤纶长丝等14类化工产品的强制性 BIS认证要求。尽管政策未直接涉及PX，但PTA与聚酯产品出口限制的放宽，仍形成了自下而上的正向 反馈逻辑。 自2022年以来，芳烃调油逻辑逐渐显现，混合芳烃、甲苯、二甲苯等化工类芳烃产品价格波动加剧。在 前两年调油需求旺盛阶段，部分MX不再用于生产PX，而是被炼厂用于调配汽油，导致PX原料供应减 少、产量下降，价格随之上涨。随着时间的推移，芳烃调油对PX价格的影响已逐渐边际递减，该因素 已被纳入PX价格的分析框架中。 2025年国庆假期过后，国际油价持续下行，聚酯产业链整体延续震荡偏弱格局。尽管海外部分装置出现 停车或降负，但国内PX开工率持续处于年内高位。在成本端与基本面双重疲弱背景下，PX价格承压下 行，主力合约于10月15日跌至下半年最低点6258元／吨。随着10月下旬原油价格反弹，聚酯产业链成本 支撑得到修复，同 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HK$46.40, revised from the previous target price of HK$42.17 [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's revenue from robotics and other LiDAR products has shown strong growth, while revenue from ADAS applications has seen moderate growth. The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to RMB 24.46 billion (-6.8%), RMB 37.56 billion (+2.4%), and RMB 52.27 billion (+5.2%) respectively [8][10]. - The company expects adjusted net profit to turn positive in Q4 2025, with the valuation method now based on 2026 multiples to better capture growth in the rapidly developing robotics sector [8][10]. - The robotics and other business revenue has tripled year-on-year, driven by breakthroughs in various markets including lawn mowing robots, unmanned delivery, and humanoid robots [8][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 1,120 million, with a net loss of RMB 4,337 million. The EPS was reported at RMB -44.670 [7][13]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 1,649 million, with a reduced net loss of RMB 482 million and an EPS of RMB -1.109 [7][10]. - By 2025, revenue is expected to increase to RMB 2,446 million, with a further reduced net loss of RMB 160 million and an EPS of RMB -0.394 [7][10]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 26.7% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [14][15]. Market Position and Competitiveness - The company has established partnerships with leading manufacturers in the lawn mower market, achieving order volumes in the seven figures. Collaborations in the unmanned delivery sector include major platforms such as Meituan and COCO Robotics [8][10]. - The average selling price for ADAS LiDAR products has decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, while the gross margin for this segment has increased by 4.4 percentage points to 19.4% [8][10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the robotics sector, supported by its strong partnerships and innovative product offerings [8][10].

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **PX**: Unilateral prices are expected to be moderately strong with a bullish spread between the September and January contracts. Suggest rolling long positions in the PX calendar spread, and also pay attention to the strategy of going long on PX and short on EB/EG [3][5]. - **PTA**: Due to weak downstream demand and cost - related factors, TA prices will fluctuate. The spread between the September and January contracts should be traded within the range of 20 - 70. PTA is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, and the basis may stabilize and rebound. Consider strategies such as going long on PTA and short on PF [7]. - **MEG**: The September - January spread should reduce positions. Unilateral prices should be traded within the range of 4250 - 4450. The basis and spread suggest exiting the calendar spread long positions in the short - term. The upside for the unilateral price is limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX - **Valuation and Profit**: Unilateral prices are moderately strong, and the 9 - 1 spread rebounds. The gasoline crack spread declines, and the Asian aromatics blending demand weakens. The toluene disproportionation profit is decent, and the PX - MX spread remains high [21][34][44]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production capacity utilization slightly decreases, and attention should be paid to potential maintenance at Tianjin Petrochemical in late July. Overseas, some plants have restarts and shutdowns. The apparent consumption in May was 355 tons, and the maintenance loss in July decreases. The import volume in May rebounded to 773,000 tons [55][59][64]. - **Inventory**: The monthly inventory in June decreased to 4.35 million tons [83]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit**: The calendar spread long positions should take profit. The basis rebounds from the bottom, and the processing fee is at a low level, with weakening profits in the polyester segment [94][104]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate remains stable at 79.7%. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang's new plant. The export volume in May decreased significantly to 270,000 tons, and is expected to rebound in June and July. The inventory has increased [107][115][135]. MEG - **Valuation and Profit**: Unilateral valuation is in a range - bound market, and the spread weakens with limited downside. The profits in each segment decline month - on - month, and MTO and ethylene - purchased MEG production are in severe losses [141][149]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate decreased month - on - month. The import volume in June was 620,000 tons, and is expected to remain the same in July. The import profit is generally low, the visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has been increasing [156][160][167]. Polyester Segment - **Valuation and Profit**: No specific information on valuation and profit is provided. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate is 88.5% (- 0.3%). The production of polyester has increased by 8% year - on - year. The inventory pressure of filament yarn has increased significantly, while the inventory of staple fiber and bottle chips is acceptable [171][178][180].

Market Overview - The PTA spot market showed improved trading sentiment compared to the previous day, with increased bids from polyester factories and a continued weak basis, leading to an expanded decline in the afternoon [1] - Main suppliers reported sales, with transactions this week and next week in the range of 4780 to 4820 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot basis is at 09+91 [1] - As of July 8, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had 45,812 PTA futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 9,384 from the previous trading day [1] Inventory and Supply Chain - This week, PTA factory inventory stands at 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days from last week and 0.29 days from the same period last year [1] - Polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.1 days, down 0.35 days from last week and 1.08 days from the same period last year [1] Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures noted that while the PTA basis continues to weaken, there has been a partial recovery in transactions, with liquidity issues easing significantly [2] - The port inventory has increased, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts and increased factory stocking, the upward impact of spot prices on the futures market has become limited [2] - Dadi Futures indicated that the polyester industry chain remains stable upstream, while expectations of declining downstream loads suggest profits will further shift downstream [2] - The oil price remains strong, and with downstream production cuts, the strategy of shorting PX/PTA based on Brent price differentials continues, although the potential for significant movement is limited [2] - As the peak season approaches in late August, there may be opportunities for PTA large manufacturers to adjust loads to expand profits, with current PTA processing fees being neutral [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] Core View of the Report - The supply of PTA is bearish as domestic production is at a historical high, and factors like benzene price weakness and profit margins limit PX production increase. The demand is also bearish as polyester downstream load is expected to decrease, and major polyester factories in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments plan to cut production in July. The PTA is in a stockpiling cycle, with port inventory increasing by 30,000 tons this week. The PTA basis has weakened rapidly, and its processing fee has shrunk. PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the macro - policy has a neutral impact [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Domestic PTA production is at a historical high, port inventory is decreasing, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to about $230 - 240, but benzene price weakness restricts PX production increase. The spread between PX and MX is about $90, which drives the recovery of PX load [3] - Demand: Polyester downstream load remains above 91% despite the expected reduction. Polyester factories' inventory is optimistic. Major production cuts are expected in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments in July, which will affect polyester load. As PTA price recovers, polyester's ability to absorb PTA price weakens, and weaving profit is compressed [3] - Inventory: PTA port inventory has accumulated, and it has entered a stockpiling cycle, with a 30,000 - ton increase in port inventory this week [3] - Basis: PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device increases with profit recovery and demand weakens, the market liquidity becomes looser [3] - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is $230, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fee remains at about 300 yuan and has contracted [3] - Valuation: PTA price is at a neutral - low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatic supply increases, but gasoline profit is poor, and blending demand recovers [3] - Macro - policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% - 70% and 10% - 20% on different countries starting August 1st [3][8] - Investment view: Oscillating, with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see [3] 2. Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs; the "Big and Beautiful Act" supports oil, gas, and coal production and restricts wind and solar energy; OPEC + is discussing an 81,100 - barrel - per - day production increase in August [8] - Gasoline: There are still concerns about the gasoline peak season. EIA data shows that the total inventory is 150,000 barrels, approaching 230 million barrels. Refinery operating rate has exceeded 94%, increasing gasoline production from 9 million barrels to 9.7 million barrels. North American refinery load is rising, and gasoline cracking profit shows a seasonal upward trend [23] 3. Aromatic Fundamentals Overview - MX: North American reforming device profit margin remains unchanged. The demand for MX in Asia is strong due to PX demand. Currently, tariffs hinder MX cross - regional arbitrage, but it is still marginally feasible. Asian spot MX supply is sufficient, and domestic mainstream reforming and aromatic extraction device productivity is decreasing [37][50][57] - PX: It is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures [49][56] - PTA: Due to large domestic production capacity, the PTA processing interval has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and capacity, the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used [49][56] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip: They are in the capacity launch cycle. Overseas demand is an important variable, and the "Belt and Road" initiative provides new export opportunities [49][56] 4. Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene glycol: Coal - price decline expands coal - based ethylene glycol profit. There will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at ports later. Polyester production and sales are weakening, and it is entering the maintenance cycle [81] - Gasoline: Gasoline profit is recovering, and the load of major refineries is increasing [82] - Polyester: Downstream demand is weakening, and bottle - chip and short - fiber are in the maintenance period. Raw material prices are rising, and terminal demand is weakening [90][97]

Report Overview - Report Title: Sino-US-South Korea Aromatics Import and Export Pattern Analysis - "Pure Benzene: United in Purpose, Triumph in Futures" Series Report on the Listing of Pure Benzene Futures - Report Date: July 7, 2025 - Analysts: Huang Tianyuan, He Xiaoqin - Contact: Qian Jiayin 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's total aromatics imports have declined in recent years, with PX imports decreasing and pure benzene imports increasing. South Korea is a major source of China's pure benzene, PX, and MX imports. - South Korea's aromatics exports are mainly directed to China, the United States, and Taiwan, China. The export volume is relatively stable, with PX being the main export product. - The United States is the world's second-largest aromatics importer. Its imports have been increasing, with significant growth in toluene and xylene imports. South Korea is a major source of the US aromatics imports. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China's Aromatics Imports - **Overall Trend**: China's total aromatics imports decreased from 17.9 million tons in 2021 to 15.14 million tons in 2024. PX imports declined rapidly due to increased domestic production, while pure benzene imports increased [2][6]. - **Pure Benzene**: The import dependence of pure benzene in China has remained at around 15%. The import volume increased from 2.09 million tons in 2020 to 4.31 million tons in 2024. South Korea is the largest source of imports, accounting for over half of the total in the first five months of 2025. Southeast Asian countries also contribute about 30% [8][10]. - **PX**: PX is the largest imported aromatic in China, accounting for 62% of the total imports in 2024. The import dependence decreased from 58% in 2018 to 20% in 2024. South Korea and Japan are the main sources of imports [16][18]. - **MX**: China's MX imports are relatively small, with an import dependence of 4.4% in 2024. South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asian countries are the main sources of imports [20][23]. - **Toluene**: China has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter of toluene since 2022. The main export destinations are Southeast Asia and East Asia, with an average monthly export volume of about 50,000 tons in recent years [26][28]. 3.2 South Korea's Aromatics Export Pattern - **Production and Export Ratio**: South Korea's aromatics production has slightly declined from 2021 to 2024 due to poor production profits. The total export volume has remained stable at 9 - 10 million tons per year, with an export dependence of over 50%. The main export products are PX, followed by pure benzene and MX [32]. - **Export Destinations**: South Korea's aromatics are mainly exported to China, the United States, and Taiwan, China. Exports to China are mainly PX, while exports to the United States are mainly pure benzene and MX [34][43]. 3.3 United States' Aromatics Import Pattern - **Overall Situation**: The United States is the world's second-largest aromatics importer, with imports accounting for about 9 - 10% of the global total. The import volume increased significantly from 2022 to 2024, but has weakened since the second half of 2024. The increase in toluene and xylene imports is more significant [44]. - **Pure Benzene**: The United States is the world's second-largest pure benzene importer, with an import dependence of about 25% in 2024. South Korea is the largest source of imports, accounting for 46%. The import share of other regions, such as Europe and Canada, has increased [49]. - **Toluene and Xylene**: The import of toluene and xylene in the United States has increased rapidly due to the demand for gasoline blending. South Korea is the largest source of toluene imports, and its share has increased from 40% in 2021 to 53% in 2024. The import of xylene has increased even faster, with South Korea accounting for 56% in 2024 [56][57]. - **PX**: The United States' PX imports have increased significantly from 2021 to 2024, driven indirectly by the demand for gasoline blending. Saudi Arabia is the largest source of imports, accounting for 37% in 2024, followed by South Korea with 22% [68].

Summary of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Industry Overview - The call discusses the performance of the petrochemical industry, particularly focusing on Sinopec's operations in the first quarter of 2025. Key Points Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Sinopec's ethylene plant utilization rate increased to approximately 90%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year. Ethylene, synthetic resin, and synthetic rubber gross margins improved significantly, increasing by 225 RMB/ton, 149 RMB/ton, and over 600 RMB/ton respectively, leading to a notable reduction in losses in the chemical segment [2][5] - The company's EBIT for Q1 was 23.6 billion RMB, with a net profit of 14 billion RMB. The debt-to-asset ratio stood at 53.5%, and cash flow was 8.1 billion RMB, an increase of 20 billion RMB year-on-year [3] - Investment income decreased by 3.8 billion RMB, primarily due to joint ventures and e-commerce business impacts, but overall, the petrochemical business remained stable [3][12] Oil Price Impact - The decline in oil prices has a significant impact on Sinopec's profit margins. For every 1 USD drop in international oil prices, upstream profits could decrease by approximately 4.5 billion RMB. The refining segment performs relatively well at around 70 USD/barrel, but profits need to be adjusted when prices exceed 80 USD/barrel [2][8][9] - The company maintains a low inventory strategy, with crude oil inventory at about 20 days of production and finished oil inventory at about 15 days of sales, currently at the lower limit of 2-3 million tons [2][10] Natural Gas and Chemical Segment - Natural gas production increased by 5.1%, with a target to maintain a 3-5% annual growth rate. The company aims to sustain last year's profit level of 26.5 billion RMB from natural gas operations [3][11] - The chemical segment showed signs of recovery, with core raw materials like ethylene glycol and nylon fiber gross margins increasing by over 200 RMB/ton and 400 RMB/ton respectively, despite weaker performance in MX and PX products [2][6] Strategic Initiatives - Sinopec is actively addressing the peak oil product sales issue, with gasoline and diesel sales declining by 3-6% in Q1 2025. However, aviation fuel sales grew by approximately 5.7% [3][14] - The company is expanding its comprehensive energy stations and has seen a 70% increase in gas sales, with plans to accelerate the construction of charging and battery swap stations [3][14] - Capital expenditure for Q1 was 1.82 billion RMB, with an annual plan of 165 billion RMB to enhance profitability across various segments [4][15] Future Outlook - Sinopec's dividend policy remains stable, with a commitment to a payout ratio of no less than 65%. The company aims to maintain shareholder returns despite the cyclical downturn in the petrochemical industry [18][19] - The company plans to continue its investment strategy, focusing on high-end green and smart projects to enhance competitiveness in line with national carbon neutrality goals [15] Additional Insights - The company’s natural gas resource pool consists of a mix of domestic and imported gas, with a significant portion coming from long-term contracts [16] - The group has initiated a share buyback plan, aiming to bolster market confidence and demonstrate commitment to the company's growth [17] This summary encapsulates the key financial metrics, strategic initiatives, and market outlook for Sinopec as discussed in the Q1 2025 earnings call.