崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.11） 晨会纪要（2025/12/11） 编辑人 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 11 月挖掘机销量超 2 万台，同比增长 13.9%——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/11） 金融工程研究 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（12 月 3 日-12 月 9 日）A 股市场主要指数全部上涨，其中创业板指涨幅最大，上涨了 4.51%；上证综 指涨幅最小，上涨了 0.30%。此外，深证成指上涨 1.69%，科创 50 上涨 2.04%，沪深 300 上涨 0.96%，上证 50 上涨 0.65%，中证 500 上涨 1.15%。 12 月 9 日，沪深两市两融余额为 25,030.36 ...

Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to see continued investment opportunities, particularly in the engineering machinery and robotics sectors, driven by domestic demand and infrastructure projects [1][6]. - The industry has experienced a recovery in demand, with excavator and loader sales maintaining growth, supported by favorable domestic construction activity and government policies aimed at expanding effective investment [6][39]. Engineering Machinery - In October 2025, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (up 2.44%) and exports at 9,628 units (up 12.90%) [28]. - The sales of various types of loaders increased by 27.70% year-on-year, totaling 10,673 units, with domestic sales growing by 33.23% [33]. - The industry is benefiting from a clear growth logic in downstream demand, with major projects expected to drive further recovery [6][39]. Robotics - In October 2025, China's industrial robot production increased by 17.90% year-on-year, reaching 57,900 units, with cumulative production for the first ten months at approximately 602,700 units, up 28.80% [43]. - The market for industrial robots in China remains the largest globally, with significant room for growth in per capita ownership density [6][43]. Market Performance - From November 2 to December 2, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.86%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index declined by 3.67%, underperforming the broader market by 1.81 percentage points [5][60]. - As of December 2, 2025, the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index had a price-to-earnings ratio (PE, TTM) of 43.59, representing a valuation premium of 210.68% over the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [67]. Company Recommendations - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the industry and recommends "buy" ratings for specific companies, including Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [7].

zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.07 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,888.60 | 0.34 | 深证成指 | 12,984.08 | 0.85 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,526.66 | 0.25 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,397.36 | 0.25 | | 中证 | 500 | 7,031.55 | 1.15 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the A-share market, with sectors like electronics and semiconductors leading while others like media and internet lag behind [6][10][11] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience, with industrial profits showing a slight increase year-to-date despite a decline in October [9][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming policy meetings that may catalyze market movements and suggests maintaining a balanced investment strategy [12][38] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,875.26 with a slight increase of 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% [4] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 15.86 and 47.74 respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [10][11] International Market Performance - Major international indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45% respectively, reflecting a broader trend of market volatility [5] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the growth in the semiconductor sector, which is expected to continue driving market performance [6][10] - The livestock farming industry is projected to stabilize in 2026 due to a decrease in breeding sow inventory, which may lead to improved pricing [18] - The renewable energy sector, particularly solar power, is undergoing a transformation with increased marketization and a focus on capacity optimization [19][20] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong growth potential such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, and renewable energy [12][20] - The report suggests that the media sector is experiencing a recovery driven by improved policy environments and AI applications, making it a potential area for investment [24][25][26] Economic Data Insights - In October, industrial profits for large-scale enterprises fell by 5.5%, but the cumulative profit for the year showed a 1.9% increase [9][13] - The report notes that the overall economic indicators are showing signs of recovery, supported by government fiscal measures [13][14] Sector-Specific Strategies - The livestock sector is highlighted for its potential recovery in pricing due to supply adjustments, while the animal health and seed industries are also seen as having growth opportunities [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies within the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and storage technologies [20][21][22]

Group 1: Key Insights on Light Industry and Textile Apparel - The潮玩 (trendy toys) industry has a promising outlook, with a projected CAGR of 23.2% from 2019 to 2024, expecting to reach 213.3 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the Z generation's pursuit of personalization and cultural value [2] - The pet industry is expected to grow to 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, supported by factors such as family size reduction and the aging population, with the pet food sector projected to reach 158.5 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The metal packaging sector is experiencing revenue and profit improvements, with a shift towards a "value war" and increased overseas business development, enhancing long-term profitability [2] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a gradual recovery in orders as tariff risks diminish, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue changes of +1.44%, -0.75%, and -1.03% respectively [3] - The domestic clothing market is showing weak performance, but policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to boost the sports apparel market, projected to reach 408.9 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Investment strategies highlight the ongoing consumer focus on emotional value, benefiting industries like trendy toys and pets, while the textile sector is poised for recovery due to stable tariff risks and supportive policies [3] Group 2: Key Insights on Machinery Equipment - In October, China's engineering machinery import and export trade reached 4.844 billion USD, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with an average operating rate of 45.56% for the industry [6] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with excavator and loader sales maintaining growth, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and a favorable domestic investment strategy [6] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with specific companies like 中联重科 (Zoomlion) and 恒立液压 (Hengli Hydraulic) recommended for "increase" ratings [7] Group 3: Key Insights on Metal Industry - Gold prices are expected to rise due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a projected demand increase from global ETFs and stable industrial demand [8] - Copper supply is anticipated to turn short in 2026, driven by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors and technological advancements, which may support copper prices [8] - Tungsten's strategic value is highlighted by strong demand in high-tech and defense sectors, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated [9] - Cobalt supply is projected to face significant shortfalls due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demand from the electric vehicle battery sector expected to rise [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and AI applications in driving industry growth and investment opportunities [6][21][35] - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on sectors such as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors for short-term investment opportunities [10][14][24] - The automotive industry is highlighted for its resilience, with expectations for continued growth in both passenger and commercial vehicle segments, particularly in electric vehicles [22][30] Market Performance - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3,864.18, down 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% [4] - International markets also faced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.67% and the S&P 500 down 0.45% [5] Industry Strategies - The report outlines various industry strategies, including a focus on enhancing consumption adaptability in key sectors such as smart vehicles and consumer electronics [6][9] - The media and entertainment sector is experiencing significant growth, with a 26.42% increase in the CITIC Media Index, outperforming major indices [17][19] - The automotive sector is advised to focus on intelligent and connected vehicles, with a projected increase in market concentration and a shift towards high-quality development [21][22] Economic Indicators - National industrial output increased by 4.9% year-on-year in October 2025, while retail sales grew by 2.9% [11][12] - The report indicates that the fixed asset investment has seen a decline of 1.7%, with real estate investment down by 14.7% [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to maintain reasonable positions and avoid speculative trading, with a focus on sectors like telecommunications, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals for potential gains [10][14][24] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors are expected to maintain high levels of profitability due to supply constraints and strong demand [30][31] Sector-Specific Insights - The telecommunications sector is poised for growth, driven by advancements in AI and cloud services, with significant capital expenditure expected from leading firms [35][38] - The report highlights the importance of AI applications in various industries, including gaming, film, and advertising, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and market valuation [17][35]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [2][29]. Core Views - The construction machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in October, with continued growth in excavator and loader sales. The demand growth logic is clear, supported by favorable domestic construction activity. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand and effective investment, which is expected to boost the industry further as key projects are implemented and equipment renewal policies deepen [2][29]. - The overseas market is also showing promise, with major regions maintaining high levels of construction activity. Recent tariff disruptions have weakened, and leading domestic machinery companies are accelerating their overseas market expansion. Chinese construction machinery products are competitive in terms of technology maturity and cost-effectiveness, making international market development a key focus for the industry [2][29]. Industry News - In October, China's construction machinery import and export trade amounted to USD 4.844 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.07%. The export value was USD 4.668 billion, up 1.29% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 24.2% to USD 176 million [10][11]. - The average operating rate of construction machinery in October was 45.56%, a month-on-month increase of 1.4%, with significant growth in the operating rates of lifting equipment [11][10]. - The rental rate index for aerial work platforms in October was 660 points, showing a slight month-on-month decline but a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [10][11]. Company Announcements - China Railway Signal & Communication Corp won ten significant projects from September to October, with a total bid amount of approximately RMB 2.539 billion, which is about 7.82% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [19][20]. - Jin Di Precision Machinery and Dong Pei Industrial signed a strategic cooperation letter of intent to explore collaboration in humanoid robot components [21]. Market Review - From November 19 to November 25, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.70%, while the machinery equipment sector declined by 2.31%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.60 percentage points [22][23]. - As of November 25, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 30.33 times, with a valuation premium of 131.21% compared to the CSI 300 [23].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -10% -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 2024.11 2025.03 2025.07 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,870.02 | 0.87 | | 深证成指 | | 12,777.31 | 1.53 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,490.40 | 0.95 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,362.98 | 0.99 | | 中证 | 500 | 6,954.60 | 1.25 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

晨会纪要（2025/11/25） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.25） 基金研究 ETF 简称迎统一规范，宽基指数获得资金净流入——公募基金周报 公司研究 传统主业稳健向前，复合集流体放量已在途——英联股份（002846）公司深 度报告 行业研究 人形机器人量产路线清晰，关注主要企业量产节奏——机械设备行业 2026 年 度投资策略报告 证 四季度服装出口预计向好，关注家居相关政策催化——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/25） 基金研究 ETF 简称迎统一规范，宽基指数获得资金净流入——公募基金周报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 上周统计区间为 2025 年 11 月 17 日至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，权益市场 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in various industries, with a focus on the capital market's role in supporting economic growth and innovation [5][19][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and investment in emerging industries, particularly in technology and infrastructure [5][19][24] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,836.77 with a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12,585.08 [3] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.77 and 46.14, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][14] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced declines of 0.45% and 0.15% respectively [4] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.38% to 25,220.02, reflecting broader market challenges [4] Industry Strategies - The report outlines various industry strategies, including the focus on financing coordination and the continuation of industry prosperity [6][19] - The copper and aluminum sectors are highlighted for their strong demand and pricing stability, with copper prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increased demand from green energy initiatives [20][21] - The AI and semiconductor industries are projected to experience significant growth, driven by advancements in technology and increased capital expenditure from cloud service providers [24][31] Financial Sector Insights - The securities industry is expected to maintain a strong performance, with a projected increase in equity financing and stable brokerage revenues [18][19] - The report notes that the first three quarters of 2025 saw a significant recovery in the performance of listed securities firms, with revenues up 42.55% year-on-year [17][18] Emerging Industries - The report indicates that the ice and snow industry in China is set to exceed 1 trillion yuan in scale, reflecting the growth potential in niche markets [5][8] - The focus on new energy vehicles and related infrastructure is expected to drive demand for lithium battery equipment, with significant investment opportunities identified [28][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the copper and aluminum sectors, as well as those involved in AI and semiconductor technologies, due to their strong growth prospects [20][24][31] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Zijin Mining, Yunnan Aluminum, and leading AI firms such as Hikvision and Huya [20][24][36]