智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持石药集团(01093)"跑赢行业"评级，考虑对外授权持续兑现上 调目标价9.1%到12港元。该行维持公司25/26年盈利预测47.60亿元/53.53亿元，引入2027年56.95亿元预 期。石药集团公告与阿斯利康签订研发合作与授权协议。 中金主要观点如下： 2025年11月，辉瑞经过与诺和诺德激烈竞价最终以100亿美元对价实现对减肥药研发企业Metsera的收 购，Metsera基于其专有NuSH平台实现了MET-097(GLP-1，临床II期)的超长半衰期，使其具备每月注射 一次的药代动力学基础。而公司SYH2082是一款正推进至临床I期的每月一次注射长效GLP1R/GIP激动 剂，该行期待有更多优异疗效和安全性数据读出。 中国创新药授权出海再获里程碑式突破 对外授权持续兑现，有望形成常态化收入 根据公告，石药集团及附属公司授权阿斯利康在全球范围内(除中国内地/港澳台)独家开发、生产和商业 化8个创新长效多肽药物项目(包括SYH2082及3个临床前阶段分子，并就另4个新增项目进行合作)，阿 斯利康将支付合计12亿美元预付款以及后续累计最高35亿/138亿美元的开发/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for multiple companies in the healthcare sector, including BeiGene, JD Health, WuXi Biologics, and others, while China National Pharmaceutical Group is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong healthcare sector experienced a broad-based correction due to capital pressures, with pharmaceutical distribution remaining relatively stable [4][28]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 3.0% this week, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 5.4 percentage points, but has gained 8.6% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.7 percentage points [14][27]. - The top five gainers in the sector included Leads Biolabs-B (+19.3%), Sihuan Pharmaceutical (+17.9%), and Tigermed (+7.6%), while the bottom five decliners included Medlive Technology (-16.2%) and Laekna-B (-14.1%) [4][29]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates that various sub-sectors within the healthcare market have experienced declines, with pharmaceutical distribution down by 0.3%, internet healthcare down by 2.1%, and medical devices down by 5.0% [4][28]. Company Updates - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical announced a revenue forecast of 3.25 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 89%, and has turned a profit [11]. - A collaboration agreement was signed between CSPC Pharmaceutical and AstraZeneca, involving a total payment of $18.5 billion for the licensing of GLP-1 long-acting assets [11]. - AstraZeneca plans to invest $15 billion in China by 2030, focusing on expanding drug manufacturing and R&D capabilities [12]. - Kangzheng Pharmaceutical's lebrikizumab cream has been approved for the treatment of non-segmental vitiligo in patients aged 12 and older [12]. Regulatory Developments - The National Health Commission approved a pilot program for internet-based first consultations in Beijing, which is expected to accelerate prescription outflow [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for multiple companies in the healthcare sector, including BeiGene, JD Health, WuXi Biologics, and others, while China National Pharmaceutical Group is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong healthcare sector experienced a broad-based correction due to capital pressures, with pharmaceutical distribution remaining relatively stable [4][28]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 3.0% this week, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 5.4 percentage points, but has gained 8.6% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.7 percentage points [14][27]. - The top five gainers in the sector included Leads Biolabs-B (+19.3%), Sihuan Pharmaceutical (+17.9%), and Tigermed (+7.6%), while the bottom five decliners included Medlive Technology (-16.2%) and Laekna-B (-14.1%) [4][29]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates that various sub-sectors within the Hong Kong healthcare market experienced declines, with pharmaceutical distribution down by 0.3%, internet healthcare down by 2.1%, and medical devices down by 5.0% [4][28]. Company Highlights - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical announced a revenue forecast of 3.25 billion yuan for 2025, representing an 89% year-on-year increase, and reported a turnaround to profitability [11]. - A collaboration agreement was signed between CSPC Pharmaceutical and AstraZeneca, involving a total payment of $18.5 billion for the licensing of GLP-1 long-acting assets [11]. - AstraZeneca plans to invest $15 billion in China by 2030, focusing on expanding drug manufacturing and R&D capabilities [12]. - Kangzheng Pharmaceutical's lebrikizumab cream has been approved for the treatment of non-segmental vitiligo in patients aged 12 and older [12]. Regulatory Developments - The National Health Commission approved a pilot program for internet-based first consultations in Beijing, which is expected to accelerate prescription outflow and improve access to healthcare services [13].

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 技术加持稳定原料药出口竞争力 医药行业周报 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 医 药 行 业 观 点 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2026年02月01日 1.技术加持稳定原料药出口竞争力，重视供给变量 根据医保商会数据，2025年中国医药保健品出口额1113.41亿美元，增长3.14%，其中西药原料出口额428.67亿美元，占西 药总出口的76.8%，同比微降0.27%。原料药出口能保持出口总量的相对稳定，是克服全球贸易变局和内部价格竞争内卷下 实现的，是中国原料药产业竞争力的体现。受关税贸易影响，2025年中国对美国医药出口下降了10.6%，而非美市场，欧 盟增长11.38%，新兴市场增长4.49%。展望2026年原料药贸易依然存在较多的不确定性，中国与印度之间原料药竞争合作 将进一步演绎。价格方面，价格竞争内卷是一方面，另一方面合成生物学等新技术加持，新工艺新产能的投产，单位成本 下降是重要一面。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.25 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has announced a significant overseas transaction involving its long-acting peptide drug metabolism AI discovery platform, which includes a USD 1.2 billion upfront payment, up to USD 3.5 billion in development milestones, and up to USD 13.8 billion in potential sales milestones, along with a double-digit percentage royalty on net sales to AstraZeneca [1][2]. - This transaction is the largest among domestic pharmaceutical companies in the year and is comparable to the 2015 upfront payment scale between 3SBio and Pfizer [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upfront payment, leading to a high apparent year-on-year growth in net profit for 2026 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Transaction Details - The deal with AstraZeneca includes a USD 1.2 billion upfront payment, a maximum of USD 3.5 billion in development milestones, and a maximum of USD 13.8 billion in potential sales milestones, along with a double-digit percentage royalty on net sales [2]. - The platform includes core assets such as GIPR/GLP-1R (monthly formulations) and three preclinical weight loss pipelines with different mechanisms of action [2]. Platform Mechanism - The company possesses a globally leading liposome platform, and the fluid crystal technology allows for long-term release of active ingredients, enabling monthly or longer dosing [2]. Pipeline Potential - The company’s pipeline includes significant projects such as EGFR ADC, which is expected to enter Phase III clinical trials both domestically and internationally, and other oncology and autoimmune therapies [3]. - The company is focusing on filling gaps in its wild-type lung squamous carcinoma layout with PD-1/IL-15 and has ADC pipelines targeting HER3, B7H3, DLL3, among others [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit is projected to be RMB 4.45 billion in 2025 and RMB 8.46 billion in 2026, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.39 and RMB 0.73 [4][9]. - The target price is set at HKD 19.25, reflecting a 24x PE for 2026, with adjustments made based on the anticipated impact of product procurement [4][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.25 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has announced a significant overseas deal for its long-acting peptide drug metabolism AI discovery platform, involving an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion, potential R&D milestone payments of up to USD 3.5 billion, and sales milestone payments of up to USD 13.8 billion, along with a double-digit percentage royalty on net sales to AstraZeneca [1][2]. - This transaction is noted as the largest deal in the domestic pharmaceutical sector for the year, comparable to a previous major deal between 3SBio and Pfizer [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upfront payment, leading to a projected rapid year-on-year growth in net profit for 2026 [1]. - The long-acting metabolism platform is considered rare globally, with only Camurus having a similar platform, which enhances the company's competitive position in the overseas weight loss market [2]. Summary by Sections Transaction Details - The deal with AstraZeneca includes an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion, potential R&D milestones of up to USD 3.5 billion, and sales milestones of up to USD 13.8 billion, along with a royalty on net sales [2]. - The platform includes core assets such as GIPR/GLP-1R and three preclinical weight loss pipelines, with plans for collaboration on four additional projects [2]. Platform Mechanism - The company possesses a leading liposome platform, and the fluid crystal technology allows for long-term release of active ingredients, enabling monthly or longer dosing [2]. Pipeline Potential - The company has a robust pipeline including EGFR ADC, which is expected to enter Phase III clinical trials both domestically and internationally, and other oncology and autoimmune therapies [3]. - The ADC pipeline targets HER3, B7H3, DLL3, and aims to address gaps in lung squamous carcinoma treatment [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 4.45 billion, RMB 8.46 billion, and RMB 5.60 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.39, RMB 0.73, and RMB 0.49 [4][9]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 24 times for 2026, with a target price adjustment reflecting market conditions [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Insights - The PAM pathway represents a significant market opportunity, with a potential market size of approximately $10 billion, particularly relevant for breast and prostate cancers [4][13]. - Celcuity's Gedatolisib is highlighted as a promising PAM inhibitor, showing comparable efficacy to existing therapies and is expected to establish a new standard of care in HR+/HER2- breast cancer treatment [21][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on drug development and the integration of advanced technologies [5]. Summary by Sections PAM Pathway Market Potential - The PAM pathway is underdeveloped in solid tumors, with mutations occurring in 38% of cancer patients, covering major types like breast and prostate cancer [4][14]. - Potential revenues from PAM inhibitors are comparable to CDK4/6 and AR therapies, estimated between $8 billion to $10 billion [4][18]. Celcuity and Gedatolisib - Gedatolisib has shown superior efficacy in preclinical studies, with a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months in combination therapy, significantly outperforming standard treatments [22][31]. - The FDA has accepted a new drug application for Gedatolisib, with a priority review status and a target decision date set for July 17, 2026 [31][32]. Hong Kong and Celcuity's Developments - Hong Kong's Hong Kong Medical Index has shown a decline, with specific stocks like Celcuity and Honghua Medicine being highlighted for their innovative approaches in targeting HER2 and PAM pathways [5][70]. - Honghua Medicine is developing a HER2-targeted PAM inhibitor, HMPL-A251, which has demonstrated strong anti-tumor activity in various models and is currently in clinical trials [33][41].

中国创新药出海BD再获里程碑式突破！ 1月30日，石药集团宣布已与全球生物制药领导者阿斯利康签订战略研发合作与授权协议，以利用集团 专有的缓释给药技术平台及多肽药物AI发现平台，开发创新长效多肽药物。若后续所有研发及销售里 程碑均达成，石药集团方面有权获得总计高达185亿美元的款项。 据不完全统计，本次交易刷新了中国药企BD交易总金额最高纪录，超过了此前启德医药与 Biohaven&AimedBio达成的一笔130亿美元交易。其12亿美元的预付款，仅次于此前三生制药与辉瑞就 PD-1/VEGF达成的数额。 不过，二级市场反应不佳，石药集团股价高开低走，盘中一度狂泻近13%，收跌10.2%。什么原因？分 析人士指出，或系多方面因素叠加影响。 从石药集团股价近日表现来看，市场可能提前定价。在此次协议公告前，石药集团已连续多日强势上 涨，尤其在1月28日，股价单日大涨6.14%创年内新高。公告发布后，部分资金可能选择获利了结，形 成"利好兑现"式抛压。 从业绩贡献来看，尽管协议总金额高达185亿美元，但预付款为12亿美元，其余173亿美元为研发与销售 里程碑付款，需在未来数年、多个临床阶段成功推进后方可兑现，短期现 ...

（GLP-1，临床II期）的超长半衰期，使其具备每月注射一次的药代动力学基础。而公司SYH2082 是一 款正推进至临床I期的每月一次注射长效GLP1R/GIP激动剂，我们期待有更多优异疗效和安全性数据读 出。 对外授权持续兑现，有望形成常态化收入。2025 年公司已实现口服小分子GLP-1（1.2 亿美元首付 款）、阿斯利康战略合作（1.1亿美元预付款）、伊利替康脂质体（1500 万美元首付款）、ROR1ADC （1500 万美元首付款）的对外授权。公司研发管线中还有EGFR ADC/SiRNA系列等进度领先的创新资 机构：中金公司 研究员：俞波/陈诗雨/张琎 公司近况 石药集团公告与阿斯利康签订研发合作与授权协议。 评论 中国创新药授权出海再获里程碑式突破。根据公告，石药集团及附属公司授权阿斯利康在全球范围内 （除中国内地/港澳台）独家开发、生产和商业化8 个创新长效多肽药物项目（包括SYH2082及3 个临床 前阶段分子，并就另4 个新增项目进行合作），阿斯利康将支付合计12 亿美元预付款以及后续累计最高 35 亿/138 亿美元的开发/销售里程碑款项。其中巨石生物（新诺威控股子公司）有权收取首付款的3 ...

英国首相斯塔默参观上海豫园。新华社记者 王翔 摄 对此，随同斯塔默一起访华的英国商界人士告诉《环球时报》记者，除在个别涉及各自国家安全的领域 外，英国和中国没有理由不开展互利共赢的商业合作。他们同时表示，尽管当前地缘政治局势复杂，但 他们仍对英中关系的进一步发展和两国保持经济商业合作持乐观态度。 在30日举行的一场中英商务论坛上，300多名来自中英两国企业、商会、政界的人士火热交流着。《环 球时报》记者在现场注意到，在参会的中国企业中，新能源、汽车、医药领域的公司数量较多，吸引了 不少英国人士的关注。多名英国企业代表在座位间来回穿梭，与相关中方企业交换名片、低声讨论合作 可能性，会议室内持续回荡着交谈声，洽谈气氛明显升温。 美国称"与中国做生意很危险"，英商界人士：找不到任何不和中国合作的理由 1月31日，英国首相斯塔默结束为期四天的中国之行，并在社交媒体平台上表示，中国是世界第二大经 济体，这里蕴藏着巨大的机遇，"我们必须抓住这些机遇"。就在2天前，美国总统特朗普"警告"英国， 不要与中国开展商业合作，称这将"非常危险"。 "企业最需要的是稳定性和长期预期。"他直言，"英国一直非常钦佩中国在基础设施建设、社 ...