Report Overview - Report Name: Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report - Report Date: June 6, 2025 - Researcher: Gao Guangqi - Company: Huajin Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For iron ore, the iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Although the steel mill's sinter powder inventory is low, the raw material side is expected to have limited room for continuous recovery due to the expected weakening of rigid demand [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, and there is no continuous rebound momentum for both spot and futures prices. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply - side reduction [40]. - In the third quarter, it is difficult for the black commodities to have a continuous upward performance [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Overseas Supply - Australia and Brazil are gradually entering the shipping peak season. The current shipment volume has increased by 124.5 tons to 2,830.62 tons. The shipment volume from non - Australia and Brazil regions has increased significantly, rising by 140.9 tons to about 600.4 tons this week. The arrival volume in the third quarter is expected to be at an average level [4]. Four Major Mines' Shipment - Fortescue's iron ore shipment in FY25Q3 reached 46.1 million tons, a 7% decrease quarter - on - quarter, with a shipment target of 190 - 200 million tons for the 2025 fiscal year. - Vale's iron ore production in 25Q1 was 67.66 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 325 - 335 million tons. - Rio Tinto's iron ore production in 25Q1 was 69.77 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 323 - 338 million tons. - BHP's Pilbara business iron ore production in FY25Q3 was 67.8 million tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 282 - 294 million tons [14]. Demand - This week, the iron - water production remained stable at around 241.8 tons, with a decrease of 0.1 tons. It is expected to remain volatile at a high level. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has declined, and the port clearance volume has remained at a high level [19]. Inventory - The sinter powder inventory has continued to decline, and the total port inventory has decreased slightly. This week, the total port inventory decreased by 39.89 tons to 13,826.69 tons. - The steel mill's imported sinter powder inventory decreased by 48.48 tons to 1,162.04 tons this week. Attention should be paid to the dynamic balance of steel mill profits and production changes [24][27]. Spot - Futures Structure - The spot - futures prices have fluctuated widely. It is expected that the black commodities will not have a continuous upward performance in the third quarter [29]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index has been fluctuating at a low level, with no obvious upward or downward trend this week [36]. Relationship with Non - Mainstream Region Shipment - The non - Australia and Brazil region's shipment volume has increased significantly this week [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - The iron - water production is expected to remain volatile at a high level. This week, it remained stable. The third round of coke price reduction of 70 yuan/ton has been implemented, and coke profits have continued to be under pressure [44]. Coking Coal Inventory - The independent coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased by 27.41 tons to 818.92 tons this week, and the steel mill's coking coal inventory decreased by 15.88 tons to 770.91 tons. - The port's imported coking coal inventory increased by 9.93 tons to 131.02 tons this week, and the mine's clean coal inventory reached a new high [47][50]. Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, and although the futures price has rebounded, it is difficult to see a substantial turning point in the short term [55]. Coke Inventory - The third round of coke price reduction of 70 yuan/ton has been implemented, and the coke inventory available days for steel mills have continued to decline. - This week, the total coke inventory remained stable, and the iron - water production decreased by 0.1 tons to 241.80 tons. The average national coking profit this week was about - 19 yuan/ton [58][63]. Coke Term Structure - Both the coke spot and futures prices have dropped significantly, the basis has narrowed, and the overall structure is at par [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rebounded from a low level, with a daily increase of 0.47%. The supply and demand pattern has not changed significantly. Although the weekly output decreased slightly, it remains at a high level for the year. Demand is stable but has a seasonal weakening expectation. With inventory at a low level, steel prices are expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.32%. Both supply and demand have increased. Supply has returned to a high level for the year, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. With overseas risks easing, steel prices are expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate at a low level [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore rebounded from a low level, with a daily increase of 1.29%. In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is declining. At the same time, port arrivals have increased slightly, and overseas miners' shipments remain high. With the futures price deeply discounted, ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The US Federal Court blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority [8]. - In Q1 2025, the domestic sales volume of refrigeration and air - conditioning valves reached 19.915 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [9]. - Fortescue postponed the full - production time of its Iron Bridge Magnetite Project to the 2028 fiscal year. The annual shipment volume is expected to be 10 - 12 million tons in the 2026 fiscal year, 16 - 20 million tons in the 2027 fiscal year, and reach the full - load capacity of 22 million tons in the 2028 fiscal year [10]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,090, 3,160, and 3,230 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,200, 3,150, and 3,270 respectively. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 737 [11]. 3. Futures Market | Product | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,978 | 0.47 | 1,945,056 | 611,105 | 2,377,320 | - 64,068 | | Hot - rolled Coil | 3,110 | 0.32 | 809,980 | 357,449 | 1,552,234 | 15,120 | | Iron Ore | 707.0 | 1.29 | 504,680 | 217,338 | 716,254 | - 5,254 | [13] 4. Related Charts - There are charts showing the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including the opening rate of electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of arc - furnace steel mills [15][29] 5. Future Market Judgment - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has not improved. Supply has slightly contracted but the reduction is unlikely to be sustainable. Demand is stable but has a seasonal weakening expectation. With inventory at a low level, steel prices will continue to be under pressure and seek a bottom [37]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have increased. Supply has returned to a high level, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. With overseas risks easing, steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level [38]. - Iron Ore: In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is declining. Supply pressure remains high. With the futures price deeply discounted, ore prices will fluctuate at a low level [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price is volatile, and attention should be paid to correction risks [14] - US Dollar Index: Short - term volatility [18] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term weak and volatile [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [24] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation [28] - Thermal Coal: Price may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] - Iron Ore: Short - term weak and volatile [31] - Edible Oils: Expected to be volatile under the influence of US biofuel policies [35] - Coking Coal/Coke: Weak in the medium - and long - term [36] - Sugar: Second consecutive year of production increase brings little pressure to the market [41] - Corn Starch: CS07 - C07 may remain in low - level oscillation [43] - Cotton: Cautiously optimistic about the future, but short - term may be volatile due to insufficient demand [47] - Corn: Spot and futures prices are expected to rise [48] - Live Pigs: Maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [50] - Soybean Meal: Futures prices are temporarily volatile [54] - Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil: Short - term single - side light - position waiting and see, spot hedging on rebounds [59] - Alumina: Suggest waiting and seeing [62] - Lithium Carbonate: Long - term bearish, but short - term decline space is limited [64] - Polysilicon: Uncertain, pay attention to supply - side changes [68] - Industrial Silicon: Spot price may bottom out, but short - side risks exist for futures [70] - Nickel: Short - term range - bound operation, consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term [73] - Lead: Short - term waiting and seeing, start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [75] - Zinc: Short - term shorting on rebounds, consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [77] - Carbon Emissions: Short - term volatility [79] - Crude Oil: Weak short - term rebound drivers [83] - Bottle Chips: Processing fees are expected to remain low, pay attention to supply - side changes [85] - Soda Ash: Short - term support from maintenance, medium - term shorting on rebounds [86] - Float Glass: Prices will remain low, pay attention to real - estate policy changes [88] Core Views - Tariff issues between the US and the EU have a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has triggered market risk - aversion, affecting the prices of gold, the US dollar, and stock index futures. The postponement of tariffs has also changed market sentiment and expectations [12][13][17] - The supply and demand situation in the commodity market is complex. In the coal market, over - supply persists, and prices are under pressure. In the agricultural product market, factors such as production, inventory, and consumption seasons affect prices. In the metal market, factors like production capacity, inventory, and policy adjustments play important roles [29][39][64] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU and 25% tariffs on Apple, which triggered market risk - aversion and pushed up gold prices. Then he postponed the EU tariff deadline to July 9. Short - term gold prices are volatile, and the next wave of increase needs a catalyst [12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump postponed the EU tariff deadline, indicating that the US and the EU have entered a negotiation window. The short - term market risk preference has increased, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US - EU tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the risk of tariff hikes still exists. The market sentiment has weakened, and US stocks are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 1425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market lacks a clear trading theme, and the bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Bank deposit and large - scale certificate of deposit interest rates have been lowered. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has put pressure on global risk assets, and domestic stock index futures suggest balanced allocation [25][28] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - South Korea's coal imports in April decreased by 20.16% year - on - year. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high - cost imported coal has been squeezed out. Coal prices may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in May, but it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The full - production time of the Iron Bridge project has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. Iron ore prices are in an oscillating market, and are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [31] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased in May, and export data varied. The US biofuel policy affects soybean oil prices. The edible oil market is expected to be volatile [34][35] 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is weakly stable. Coking coal prices are falling, and the supply - demand structure is difficult to change without significant supply - side cuts. Coal and coke are expected to be weak in the medium - and long - term [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The 24/25 sugar - making season in the country has ended. Yunnan's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. Although the national sugar production has increased, the pressure on the market is not large due to the fast sales progress [39] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start - up rate of starch sugar has increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of starch is expected to improve. The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in low - level oscillation [42][43] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - EU clothing imports increased in March, mainly due to price increases. China's cotton exports increased in April. US cotton new - crop signing is sluggish. Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile in the short - term, and the future is cautiously optimistic [44][45][47] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn warehouse receipts reached a high, and the basis turned positive. The new wheat crop may have a reduced yield. Corn supply and demand gap has not been filled, and prices are expected to rise [48] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The market supply of live pigs will continue to be excessive in the future. It is recommended to short on rebounds [50] 2.10 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The drought area in the US soybean - producing area has decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal will gradually increase. Futures prices are temporarily volatile [51][53] 2.11 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The use of special bonds to acquire land has accelerated. Steel production and inventory data show that steel prices are under pressure, and short - term prices are expected to be oscillating [55][59] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Alumina) - National alumina inventory decreased. Prices increased slightly. Alumina production capacity is expected to gradually recover [60][61] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The EU has postponed two matters of the battery bill, giving Chinese lithium - battery enterprises a buffer. The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but the short - term decline space is limited [63][64] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic enterprise plans to invest in Indonesia. Polysilicon prices are slightly falling. The supply - demand situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [65][66] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon technical transformation project has started. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is not improving. Spot prices lack the impetus to rebound [69] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased. The supply - demand situation of nickel is complex, with limited upward and downward space. Short - term range - bound operation and medium - term shorting on rebounds are recommended [71][73] 2.17 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The supply - demand situation of lead is weak in the short - term, but medium - term long opportunities are emerging [74] 2.18 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is at a discount. Zinc mine processing fees are increasing, and supply is expected to be loose. Short - term shorting on rebounds and medium - term long - short spreads are recommended [76][77] 2.19 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are oscillating. Future temperature and wind power generation in Europe will affect carbon prices [78] 2.20 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Iran - US nuclear negotiations are progressing. US oil drilling rigs have decreased. Short - term crude oil price rebound drivers are weak [80][81] 2.21 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, with partial slight decreases. Supply pressure is increasing, and processing fees are expected to remain low [84][85] 2.22 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are falling. Supply is slightly adjusted, and demand is average. Short - term maintenance may support prices, and medium - term shorting on rebounds is recommended [86] 2.23 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are falling. The spot market is stable in some areas and weak in others. Glass prices are expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]

Specialist Sales APAC Specialist Sales 22 May 2025 J P M O R G A N Rio unification, ONGC miss, FMG update, Strong Refining vs Weak Crude Anmol Mehta +852 2800 8896 anmol.mehta@jpmorgan.com Key Highlights Today Commodities Price Action | Best Movers | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Ticker | Last Price | %1D | | Alumina (RMB/t) | 3230.0 | 1.5 | | LME ZINC 3MO ($) | 2710.5 | 1.3 | | Aluminium ($/t) | 2465.3 | 0.8 | | China Li2Co3 (Rmb/t) | 62500.0 | 0.6 | | US NatGas ($/mmbtu) | 3.4 | 0.2 | | Best Movers | | | Wors ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a profit of approximately $40 million for Q1 2025, but excluding capital gains, the net income would have been a loss of $6 million [3] - Liquidity at the end of March was $345 million, with a contract backlog nearing $3 billion, having added roughly $1 billion in the first quarter [4] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) remained at $2.2 billion, with equity on total assets at 31.9% [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the tanker segment, average earnings were $40,000 per day in Q1, increasing to approximately $43,000 per day in Q2 [7] - The bulkers experienced weaker performance in Q1, with Newcastlemaxes earning $18,000 per day, but improving to $24,000 in Q2 [8] - Chemical tankers are primarily under long-term contracts, with earnings on the spot market around $20,000 per day [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The tanker market is expected to remain positive due to a flat growth forecast in ton miles for crude oil and a historically low order book [22] - The dry bulk market is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, with positive trends in iron ore trade from Brazil [36] - The container market is cautious due to tariffs and geopolitical issues, with a high order book of around 30% [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The proposed merger with Golden Ocean aims to create a leading diversified maritime group, increasing the fleet to 250 vessels and enhancing the contract backlog [10] - The company is focusing on diversification and decarbonization, with significant contracts signed for ammonia-powered vessels [5] - The strategy includes a strong emphasis on decarbonization, aligning with regulatory changes such as MEPC 83 [14] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the tanker and dry bulk markets despite current challenges, citing an aging fleet and low order book as positive indicators [30][24] - The company is confident that the merger with Golden Ocean will enhance financial stability and support ongoing investments in hydrogen and ammonia projects [82] - Management highlighted the importance of modern, efficient vessels to outperform competitors in a commoditized market [90] Other Important Information - The company decided not to declare a dividend for Q1 2025, focusing on growth and investment opportunities [6] - The fleet currently consists of 113 vessels, with plans to grow to approximately 150 vessels by the end of 2026 [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the ammonia solution and the status of your ammonia-powered ships? - Management highlighted the positive outlook for ammonia as a fuel choice, with ongoing discussions for retrofitting existing vessels and new builds [52][54] Question: Is the pro forma free cash flow including debt repayments? - Yes, it includes debt repayments and indicates a strong cash flow generation even in bearish scenarios [57][58] Question: What are the plans to improve revenue in the dry bulk sector? - The company is focusing on building modern vessels and leveraging the scale from the Golden Ocean merger to enhance revenue opportunities [91][92] Question: Why was no dividend declared despite industry peers paying dividends? - The company has a discretionary dividend policy, prioritizing growth and investment opportunities over immediate dividend payouts [95][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported a profit of approximately $40 million, but excluding capital gains, the net income would have been a loss of $6 million [3] - The liquidity position stood at $345 million, with a contract backlog of nearly $3 billion, having added approximately $1 billion in the first quarter [4] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) remained at $2.2 billion, and equity on total assets was 31.9% at the end of the quarter [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the tanker segment, average earnings were $40,000 per day in Q1, with an increase to approximately $43,000 per day in Q2 to date [7] - The bulkers experienced weaker performance in Q1, with Newcastlemax vessels earning $18,000 per day, which improved to $24,000 in Q2 [7] - The container and chemical tankers are primarily on long-term contracts, which are fixed at favorable rates, with an uptick in earnings for CTVs in the offshore wind markets [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The tanker market is expected to remain positive due to a flat growth forecast for crude oil ton miles and a historically low order book [22] - The dry bulk market is anticipated to improve, particularly for Capesizes, as ton mile demand is expected to increase [24] - The container market is cautious due to high order books and recent tariff changes, with 8% of TEU miles affected by tariffs [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on diversification and decarbonization, highlighted by the acquisition of ammonia-powered vessels and long-term contracts with major clients [5] - The proposed merger with Golden Ocean aims to create a leading diversified maritime group, expanding the fleet to 250 vessels and enhancing the contract backlog [10] - The company is committed to decarbonization, aligning with regulations such as MEPC 83, which emphasizes fuel intensity and the use of low-carbon fuels [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the tanker market due to an aging fleet and low order book, despite a slight decrease in oil demand growth expectations [30] - The dry bulk market is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with positive indicators for iron ore trade and a low order book [40] - The company believes that the merger with Golden Ocean will enhance its financial position and support ongoing investments in hydrogen and ammonia infrastructure projects [83] Other Important Information - The company decided not to declare a dividend for Q1 2025, focusing instead on growth and investment opportunities [6] - The fleet currently consists of 113 vessels, with plans to grow to approximately 150 vessels by the end of 2026 [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss your ammonia solution and the status of your ammonia-powered ships? - Management highlighted the positive outlook for ammonia as a fuel choice, with ongoing discussions about retrofitting existing vessels and the delivery of new ammonia-powered ships expected soon [54][55] Question: Is the pro forma free cash flow including debt repayments? - Yes, it includes debt repayments, and even in a bearish scenario, the company expects to generate excess cash flow to cover CapEx commitments [58][59] Question: What are the plans to improve revenue in the dry bulk sector? - Management emphasized the importance of building efficient vessels and leveraging the merger with Golden Ocean to enhance revenue opportunities in the dry bulk market [92][93] Question: Will the merger with Golden Ocean affect funding for hydrogen and ammonia projects? - Management clarified that the merger will enhance the company's balance sheet and liquidity, facilitating continued investments in hydrogen and ammonia infrastructure [83]

Report Overview - The report is the "Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report" released on May 16, 2025, covering iron ore and coking coal and coke markets [1] 1. Iron Ore Market 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 1.2 Core View - Iron ore supply is abundant, while the upward potential of prices is limited. The iron ore market is expected to remain stable with a slight decline in the short - term. The black market is unlikely to continue to rise significantly in the third quarter [2][33] 1.3 Summary by Section 1.3.1 Overseas Supply - Australian and Brazilian shipments are at normal levels, with a decline of 117.9 tons to 2522.5 tons this period. Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments have rebounded by 96.4 tons to about 606.5 tons, and the arrival volume is expected to remain average in the third quarter [5] 1.3.2 Four Major Mines' Shipments - Fortescue's FY25Q3 iron ore shipments reached 4610 tons, a 7% quarter - on - quarter decrease, with a 2025 fiscal year shipment target of 1.9 - 2 billion tons. Vale's 25Q1 production was 6766 tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 3.25 - 3.35 billion tons. Rio Tinto's 25Q1 production was 6977 tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 3.23 - 3.38 billion tons. BHP's FY25Q3 Pilbara iron ore production was 6780 tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 2.82 - 2.94 billion tons [15] 1.3.3 Demand - Iron ore demand is supported by high - level iron - making water production. This week, iron - making water production remained high, with a decline of 0.87 tons to about 244.77 tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased, and the port clearance volume remained high [21] 1.3.4 Inventory - Sinter powder inventory is at a normal level, and the total port inventory is stable with a slight decline. This week, the total port inventory decreased by 71.32 tons to 14166.09 tons. Steel mill's imported sinter powder inventory increased by 7.58 tons to 1301.03 tons [27][31] 1.3.5 Futures and Spot Structure - The futures and spot prices fluctuated widely, and the far - month prices rose significantly. It is expected that the black market will not continue to rise significantly in the third quarter [33] 1.3.6 Relationship with Foreign Exchange - Powell said the Fed needs to further observe market data to decide whether to cut interest rates, and the US dollar index has stabilized [40] 1.3.7 Relationship with Non - mainstream Region Shipments - Not further elaborated in the report 2. Coking Coal and Coke Market 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2.2 Core View - The supply of coking coal and coke is in excess, and the prices of both futures and spot have no momentum for continuous rebound. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [45] 2.3 Summary by Section 2.3.1 Demand and Supply - The passing vehicle numbers at the Ganqimaodu and Ceke ports are stable. Iron - making water production remains high. Coke enterprises proposed the first - round price cut of 50 yuan/ton, and the coking profit has rebounded but is still weak. Coke production has continued to rise to the average level [45] 2.3.2 Coking Coal Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is at a low level, decreasing by 31.69 tons to 884.93 tons this week. Steel mill's coking coal inventory increased slightly by 4 tons to about 791.21 tons. Port imported coking coal inventory decreased continuously and then stabilized this week, increasing by 8.28 tons to 306.09 tons. Mine clean coal inventory is at a high level and continued to rise this week [54][57] 2.3.3 Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, the price is oscillating at the bottom, and the downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor. There is no substantial turning point in the short term [63] 2.3.4 Coke Inventory - The second - round coke price increase has not materialized. This week, some enterprises proposed the first - round price cut of 50 yuan/ton. Coking profit has continued to rebound, independent coking production has continued to rise to the average level, steel mill's demand is strong, and the available days of coke inventory have continued to decline. This week, the total coke inventory decreased slightly, iron - making water production remained stable, and the national average coking profit was about 7 yuan/ton [66][71] 2.3.5 Coke Term Structure - Coke spot prices are oscillating at a low level, futures prices have dropped significantly, the basis has narrowed, and the overall structure is at par [74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an iron ore price forecast of $100/t for 2025, indicating a stable outlook amidst global economic challenges [1][5][14]. Core Insights - Global steel output has started the year relatively flat, with a decrease of 0.4% in Q1 2025, driven by a 1.7% decline in the Rest of the World (RoW) while China saw a slight increase of 0.6% [1][4][11]. - The forecast for global steel production in 2025 has been revised down from a growth of 20 million tons (Mt) to a decline of 5 Mt, primarily due to reduced expectations for RoW production [1][4][14]. - Iron ore supply has faced disruptions due to severe weather conditions in Australia, leading to a reduction of 10 Mt in Australian supply forecasts for 2025 [1][4][28]. - Despite these challenges, iron ore prices have shown resilience, remaining near $100/t, with only slight fluctuations following tariff announcements [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections Global Steel Production - Global steel output is down 0.4% year-to-date (YTD) in Q1 2025, with China showing a positive trend in April [4][19]. - The report anticipates a contraction in crude steel production in China by 1.5% in 2025, with a total output forecast of 990 Mt [7][8][14]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore supply disruptions in Q1 2025 have led to a significant decrease in Australian production forecasts, with China’s port stocks adjusting to meet demand [1][4][11]. - The report highlights a balanced supply-demand scenario, with iron ore prices expected to remain stable at $100/t due to cost curve support and an unchanged outlook for China [1][5][28]. Price Forecasts - The price forecast for iron ore remains unchanged at $100/t for 2025, reflecting a stable market despite external economic pressures [5][14][28]. - The report notes that the medium-term outlook may see a loosening of supply-demand dynamics as new projects come online, particularly from Simandou starting in Q2 2026 [5][28].

2025年，澳大利亚矿业迎来了一个标志性时刻。 Fortescue宣布其西澳铁矿石单位成本降至17.53美元/吨，创下2022年以来的最低值；Whitehaven Coal将 年度成本指引下调至140-155美元/吨区间的低端；Stanmore Coal更是启动激进成本削减计划，将每吨煤 炭成本压减5美元。 这些数据似乎都在宣告：困扰矿业十年的通胀高压终于瓦解。 然而，当我们将镜头拉远，看到的却是另一番图景。全球大宗商品价格全线崩盘。 新南威尔士州优质动力煤价格跌至115.51美元/吨，较峰值缩水73%，昆士兰焦煤价格从670美元/吨的疯 狂高位坠落至200美元以下，铁矿石价格在100美元关口反复挣扎。 这不禁让人质疑：所谓的"成本控制奇迹"，究竟是矿业公司的主动革新，还是全球经济寒冬下的被动 求生？ 降本神话？ 表面功臣：企业效率提升的"障眼法" 劳动力市场松动： Whitehaven董事总经理保罗·弗林直言："更多人回到了就业市场。" 失业率攀升至4.1%的两年高位，使得矿业公司得以压制薪资涨幅。 前言 更致命的是，房地产危机使钢铁需求萎缩，直接打击占澳洲出口额54%的炼焦煤市场。数据显示，2023 年澳 ...

Core Insights - The increasing interest in natural hydrogen, seen as a potential game-changer in the global energy landscape, is attracting major companies from the mining and energy sectors [1][2] - Natural hydrogen, discovered 40 years ago in Mali, is a carbon-free resource that produces only water when burned, leading to a surge in exploration activities by various companies [1][3] - Despite the optimism, there are concerns regarding the environmental impact and transportation challenges associated with natural hydrogen, with the International Energy Agency warning about the difficulties in achieving economically viable large-scale extraction [1][2] Industry Developments - Rystad Energy indicates that Canada and the United States are leading in exploration projects for natural hydrogen, with the next year being critical for the industry [1][2] - Major players like Fortescue and BP are investing in natural hydrogen exploration, with Fortescue's investment of $21.9 million in HyTerra to expand exploration efforts [3][4] - The potential for natural hydrogen to support decarbonization efforts is acknowledged, but the industry is still in its early stages, with significant challenges ahead in terms of efficient extraction and safe transportation [3][4] Investment Trends - The past year has seen a rise in investor interest, with venture capital backing companies like Snowfox Discovery and Mantle8, indicating a shift towards alternative hydrogen solutions amid challenges faced by green hydrogen [2][3] - The focus on natural hydrogen is seen as a promising opportunity for local clean energy, with potential applications across various industries if extraction and cost challenges can be addressed [3][4] - The hydrogen energy alliance emphasizes that while exploration is in its infancy, achieving industrial-scale production could take decades, similar to the shale gas development timeline in the U.S. [4]