Core Insights - The visit of Guangdong Wens Group to Henan Muyuan Group focused on key topics such as large-scale breeding, disease prevention, cost control, and digital applications [1][3] - Both companies engaged in an unprecedented level of technical exchange in the Chinese pig farming industry, discussing details on breeding systems, feed nutrition standards, and pig house site selection [3] Group 1 - Wens Group's visit was not a superficial tour but involved in-depth exploration of Muyuan's technical core areas, including innovative practices in building design and environmental control systems [3] - The two companies held substantial technical dialogues in three main areas: breeding and health management, feed nutrition, and pig farm design and environmental protection [3] - Muyuan emphasized its commitment to an open and shared approach, aiming to advance the pig farming industry collaboratively with peers [3] Group 2 - Both companies have evolved into key national leaders in agricultural industrialization since their inception in the 1980s and 1990s [3] - The collaboration between these two industry giants from different regions is expected to attract attention and potentially lead to the establishment of a healthier and more sustainable industry ecosystem [3]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Brand Person Annual Conference was held in Shenzhen, focusing on the theme "Who Earns Respect for China," showcasing the power of Chinese brands and exploring globalization paths [1][3] - The event highlighted the importance of the restaurant industry's globalization, with significant participation from industry leaders and experts discussing brand innovation and cultural dissemination [3][4] Industry Trends - The international Chinese restaurant market is projected to grow from $233 billion in 2020 to $362.5 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach $445.2 billion by 2027, indicating substantial market potential [3] - Despite the growth, the industry faces challenges such as standardization, supply chain issues, and localization adaptation, which were discussed during the conference [3] Company Strategy - The company "Fish You Together" has initiated a dual strategy of "globalization + localization" to address the challenges of international expansion, aiming to transform from a "foreign Chinese brand" to a "local lifestyle partner" [6][12] - The brand's global layout focuses on Southeast Asia as the core market, with North America as a supplementary region, employing a gradual strategy of pilot verification and regional expansion [6][10] Operational Tactics - The company has developed four adaptation systems for local operations: product, culture, team, and marketing, maintaining 70% classic and 30% innovative menu items while incorporating local flavors [8][9] - The team structure includes 80% local staff to ensure that local expertise drives operations, while marketing efforts leverage local social media platforms for enhanced visibility and sales [9][10] Performance Metrics - "Fish You Together" has over 2,600 global stores across more than 360 cities, making it the leading brand in the global chain of sauerkraut fish [10] - The brand's successful entry into the Malaysian market included opening six stores simultaneously within three months, while the first store in Thailand achieved a table turnover rate of 11.59 times on opening day, with over 80% local customers [10][12]

Group 1 - Vietnam's pork consumption market is expanding due to population growth and increasing consumer demand, with a projected pork consumption of 3.88 million tons in 2024, ranking fourth globally [1] - The per capita pork consumption in Vietnam is expected to reach 38.3 kg/year in 2024, second only to China, indicating a high demand for pork [1] - Vietnam's pig farming industry is currently the sixth largest in the world, with a pig stock of 25.546 million heads in 2023, trailing only China in Asia [1] Group 2 - The African swine fever (ASF) has significantly impacted Vietnam's pig farming, with the current pig stock still 11.1% lower than pre-ASF levels in 2018, leading to an accelerated exit of small-scale farmers from the market [2] - The Vietnamese pig farming sector is experiencing a shift towards larger-scale operations, driven by policy support and the need for improved biosecurity and breeding systems [2] - The industry is currently in a development phase that presents significant growth opportunities for large-scale enterprises [2] Group 3 - Local and multinational companies are increasingly integrating the pig industry chain in Vietnam, expanding from traditional feed businesses to pig farming, supported by favorable policies for foreign direct investment (FDI) [3] - In 2022, 81 foreign direct investment projects were established in Vietnam's pig farming sector, accounting for over 12% of the total FDI in the country that year [3] - The market is still in a phase of rapid expansion, with leading pig farming companies having substantial room for market share growth [3]

Report Summary Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pigs: Contradictions Continue to Accumulate, Strong Before the Festival" and is dated December 31, 2025 [1] Core View - The contradictions in the pig industry continue to accumulate, and the price is expected to be strong before the festival [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Key Points by Section Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong are 12,530 yuan/ton, 12,650 yuan/ton, and 12,960 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 50 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 400 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" are 11,305 yuan/ton, 11,790 yuan/ton, and 12,175 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 35 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" are 6,043 lots, 105,463 lots, and 23,530 lots respectively, with changes of - 905 lots, 275 lots, and - 11,071 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 8,823 lots, 172,346 lots, and 88,702 lots respectively, with changes of - 3,397 lots, 1,230 lots, and - 162 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" are 1,225 yuan/ton, 740 yuan/ton, and 355 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 85 yuan/ton, - 25 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton. The spreads between "Pig 1 - 3" and "Pig 3 - 5" are - 485 yuan/ton and - 385 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 110 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton [2] Market Information - Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December 2025. For example, Yunnan Shennong registered 85 lots on December 4, Guizhou Fuyuan registered 23 lots on December 5, and others also had different registrations [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, with the range of values from - 2 to 2, indicating a neutral view [4]

Group 1 - The "Yugou" refers to the group of listed companies in Henan, which is seen as a crucial part of the capital market and a reflection of the quality of regional economic development [1] - In 2025, Henan's capital market experienced multiple breakthroughs, including an expansion of the listing landscape, resilient performance growth, and significant global layout advancements [1] - Traditional industries in Henan are undergoing transformation, with companies like Muyuan Foods redefining the pig farming industry through technology, and Luoyang Molybdenum Co. enhancing its market position as a top copper producer [1] Group 2 - Emerging industries in Henan are shaping a new industrial structure, with companies like Xinqianglian benefiting from the stable growth of the domestic wind power market [2] - Jin Dan Technology is focusing on a circular economy by utilizing corn as a raw material, achieving value addition through various processing stages [2] - The capital market is acting as a powerful engine for industrial upgrades, with the number of A-share listed companies in Henan increasing from 87 to 112 since the end of 2020, and bond financing exceeding 100 billion yuan annually for four consecutive years [2] Group 3 - The importance of brand value is emphasized, particularly in the context of corporate restructuring, as highlighted by Lianhua Holdings' CEO [3] - The year-end reflections on Henan's capital market indicate a strong momentum for high-quality development and innovation [3]

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly rising and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force during market fluctuations, with a shift in investor preference from extreme technology and dividend styles to mid-range options [4] - It is recommended to explore opportunities in the long-dormant consumer sector and to wait for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Focus: Swine Industry - The report highlights a pessimistic outlook for the swine industry, suggesting that the current market conditions present significant investment value [5] - Recent policies and market dynamics are expected to drive capacity reduction in the swine industry, leading to long-term performance improvements [5] - The report notes that market expectations for swine prices in 2026 are extremely low, which may underestimate the inventory and capacity reduction situation [5] - Historical trends indicate that when prices for fat pigs and piglets are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reductions, supported by ongoing policy restrictions on leading producers [5] Industry Focus: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [6] - The report identifies the brain model as a significant challenge for mass production, with expectations for accelerated progress in the first half of 2026 [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend [6]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent visit by Wens Foodstuff Group's Vice President and Technical Director Zhang Xiangbin to Muyuan Group was on large-scale breeding, disease prevention, cost control, and digital applications in the industry [1][3] - During the visit, both parties engaged in deep technical exchanges, including discussions on breeding stock and health management, feed nutrition, and pig farm design and environmental protection [3][5] - Muyuan Group is committed to building a new ecosystem of industry exchange and collaborative innovation, aiming to inject new momentum into the high-quality development of the pig industry [5] Group 2 - Muyuan Group shared its innovative technologies such as multi-story pig houses, air filtration management, and the cyclical model of breeding and farming, while Wens Foodstuff Group shared its experiences in refined management and collaborative development in the livestock industry [5] - The pig industry is transitioning from scale expansion to a new stage of high-quality development, with industry innovation and transformation entering a "deep water zone" [5] - The formation of a new ecosystem characterized by "open connectivity and collaborative innovation" among leading breeding enterprises and small-scale farmers is expected to open new growth opportunities for the pig industry [5]

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 2025 年 12 月 30 日 牧原股份 (002714) ——领先成本助穿越周期，双擎共振启价值新程 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 投资要点： | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 50.89 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 59.68/35.72 | | 市净率 | 3.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.95 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 193,921 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,965.12/13,604.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 13.89 | | 资产负债率% | 55.50 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 5,463/3,811 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the long-term growth potential of China's pig farming sector [3][50]. Core Insights - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of pigs and pork, with a projected pig production of 705 million heads in 2025, accounting for 54.7% of global production [3][12]. - The report forecasts a gradual decline in pig supply in 2026, driven by a reduction in the breeding sow population, which is currently at a historically high level [3][32]. - The profitability of pig farming is expected to gradually improve as pig prices rebound and feed costs remain low [3][47][48]. Summary by Sections 1. China's Position in the Global Pork Market - China leads the world in both pig and pork production, with 2025 projections indicating a pork production of 57 million tons, representing 48.9% of global output [3][12]. - The country has a low reliance on pork imports, with an expected import volume of 1.3 million tons in 2025, only 2.2% of its total consumption [3][27]. 2. Breeding Sow Capacity and Supply Outlook - The breeding sow population is undergoing a gradual reduction, with a current stock of 39.57 million heads, down 3.01% from the previous year [3][32]. - The report anticipates a gradual decline in pig supply in 2026, which may lead to a recovery in pig prices [3][34]. 3. Industry Scale and Growth Potential - The scale of pig farming in China is increasing, with over 70% of production now coming from large-scale farms [3][50]. - The top 26 enterprises accounted for approximately 33% of total pig output in 2024, indicating a significant concentration in the industry [3][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights leading companies with cost and scale advantages, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, as potential investment opportunities [3][50].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a structural transformation in the capital market, focusing on rebuilding confidence and addressing external demand pessimism [3][4] - The investment logic suggests a shift from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a resilient cycle expected in 2026, highlighting the value attributes of leading companies [9] - Key assumptions include a gradual decrease in the breeding sow inventory and proactive capacity control by pig companies, which may lead to reduced supply pressure and potential price recovery for pigs in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report identifies specific companies to focus on, such as leading low-cost and high-certainty firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as high-growth smaller pig companies [7] - The report outlines potential risks, including the possibility of breeding sow inventory not decreasing as expected, which could lead to an oversupply of pigs and downward pressure on prices [8] - The report also discusses the beef market, indicating that if the import impact continues, it could lead to downward pressure on beef prices, affecting the profitability of beef companies [16][24] Group 3 - In the poultry sector, the report highlights that the yellow chicken market may see price increases if breeding stocks continue to decline, while the white chicken market is expected to recover as macroeconomic activities improve [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the poultry market, noting that weak demand could lead to price declines and pressure on company performance [27][32] - The report suggests that the animal health sector will benefit from the recovery of livestock profitability, with a focus on companies that have strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines [33][36] Group 4 - The grain sector is expected to see upward price trends due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, with a focus on companies involved in seed production and transgenic varieties [40][41] - The report warns of potential risks in the seed industry, including weak demand for new varieties, which could lead to price declines and increased pressure on seed companies [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policies regarding the commercialization of new seed varieties, as delays could impact market expectations [46][48] Group 5 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, indicating potential risks related to pig output and price declines [50][56] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of key indicators, such as breeding sow inventory and market prices, to assess the performance of the companies in the livestock sector [56]