证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 5 月 16 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250516 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】4 月金融数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。4 月新增社融和新增信贷 偏弱，主要是受美国关税政策冲击；但 4 月数据中仍反映出积极的财政政策 落地速度较快、居民购房需求仍在恢复趋势当中；5 月国内宏观政策加大宽 松力度、海外经贸形势出现较大变化，我们预计将提振二季度经济预期。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3380.82 | (0.68) | | 深证成指 | 10186.45 | (1.62) | | 沪深 300 | 3907.20 | (0.91) | | 中小 100 | 6321.96 | (1.34) | | 创业板指 | 2043.25 | (1.92) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | 3.68 | 计算机 | (2.97) | | 煤炭 | 0.42 | 通信 | (2.45) ...

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. and China have agreed to reduce tariffs significantly, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods decreasing from 125% to 10% [4][5][6] - The tariff adjustments exceed market expectations, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics and a more cooperative stance between the two nations [4][6][7] - Future negotiations will likely focus on core issues such as market access barriers, intellectual property protection, and service trade barriers [6][7] Group 2: JD Group Performance - JD Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with net profit reaching 11.3 billion yuan, up 53% year-on-year [9][10] - The company’s retail segment saw a 16% revenue growth, driven by strong performance in electronics and daily necessities, supported by government subsidy policies [12][10] - JD's logistics revenue grew by 11% year-on-year, with significant contributions from external clients, indicating a robust logistics operation [13] Group 3: Ma Yinglong's Market Position - Ma Yinglong holds a dominant position in the hemorrhoid treatment market, with a market share of 50% and a stable customer base due to high recurrence rates of hemorrhoid conditions [18][19] - The company is expanding into health products like eye cream and wet wipes, with the latter showing strong market growth potential [19][21] - Revenue projections for Ma Yinglong are set at 4.346 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit forecast of 624 million yuan, reflecting its strong market presence and growth strategy [21] Group 4: Wanda Film's Strategic Moves - Wanda Film is investing in 52TOYS, a leading toy company, to enhance its IP derivative business, with a total investment of approximately 1.44 billion yuan [22][24] - The collaboration aims to leverage 52TOYS' diverse product lines and IP partnerships to boost non-ticket revenue streams [24] - Wanda Film's revenue forecast for 2025 is 16.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.204 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the film and entertainment sector [25] Group 5: Softcom's Technological Advancements - Softcom is focusing on building two manufacturing bases and a computing center to enhance its capabilities in the IT service sector, with total investments projected at 33.78 billion yuan [34][35] - The company is expanding its AI and robotics initiatives, aiming to develop a comprehensive range of AI products and services [39][40] - Revenue forecasts for Softcom are set at 35.684 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 392 million yuan, reflecting its growth potential in the tech industry [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][12][13] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth of the Hongmeng ecosystem and its investments in robotics, which are expected to accelerate its growth [12] - The company plans to raise up to 3.378 billion yuan through a private placement to fund projects in the Jing-Jin-Ji region, AIPC intelligent manufacturing base, and the Huailai intelligent computing center [5][6] - The company has launched a full-stack AI strategy, focusing on AI consulting services and developing AI workstations, servers, and PCs [7][10] Recent Performance - Over the past year, the company's stock has increased by 53.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 7.8% [4] - The company's current market capitalization is approximately 57.024 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 40.710 billion yuan [4] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 356.84 billion yuan, 409.48 billion yuan, and 472.28 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.92 billion yuan, 5.50 billion yuan, and 7.53 billion yuan [12][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.41 yuan, 0.58 yuan, and 0.79 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12][11] Strategic Developments - The company is investing in two major manufacturing bases and an intelligent computing center to strengthen its layout in the Xinchuang, AIPC, and intelligent computing fields [6] - The Jing-Jin-Ji soft communication manufacturing base project has an estimated total investment of 1.381 billion yuan, focusing on the production of intelligent PC and server lines [6] - The AIPC intelligent manufacturing base project is expected to require an investment of 1.205 billion yuan, integrating production and research [6] Robotics Initiatives - The company has established a humanoid robotics division and is collaborating with Zhiyuan Robotics to develop general-purpose humanoid robots [10] - Specific products include various types of robots aimed at industrial applications, educational settings, and public exhibitions [10]

截至今天A股收盘，上证指数涨0.85%,报收3403.95点，深成指涨0.64%，报收10354.22点，创业板指涨1.01%,报收2083.14点，北证50涨1.08%，报收 1420.93点，科创50涨0.41%，报收1013.77点。 据同花顺统计，今天成交量在13499亿元，比昨日放量239亿元。 | 可以看得出来，主力和机构应该是提前知道消息，然后形成合力，但是散户和大户比较谨慎。所以，后面行情能否连续很重要 | | | --- | --- | | 不过综合我这两天看到绝对大主力在银行的持仓，我觉得GJD不会停止护盘的。 | | | 再来看看港股，截至今天港股收盘，恒生指数涨2.3%，国企指数涨2.47%，恒科涨2.13%。 | | | 资金方面，恒生指数流入107亿元，恒生科技指数流入43.63亿元。南向资金流入67.07亿元，整体而言，这个月截至到今天，南向资金流入较上个月有所放 | 缓。 | | 港股方面，目前持有天齐锂业16个交易日，没卖过，交易逻辑就是最近机构在布局的固态电池板块。 | | | 目前持有美团16个交易日，交易过4次 | | | 持有思摩尔国际，交易过两次，看好口含烟的前景， ...

Market Performance - Huawei Ascend concept declined by 3.09%, ranking among the top decliners in the concept sector [1] - Within the sector, Wutong Technology hit the daily limit down, while Pingzhi Information, Tongdahai, and Kela Software also experienced significant declines [1] - Only four stocks within the sector saw price increases, with Xingtuxinke, *ST Zhisheng, and Qidi Design rising by 7.94%, 4.99%, and 4.19% respectively [1] Concept Sector Overview - The top gainers among concept sectors included NMN concept (+2.07%), synthetic biology (+2.05%), and pet economy (+1.98%) [2] - Conversely, Huawei Pangu and Huawei Ascend concepts saw declines of 3.76% and 3.09% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The Huawei Ascend concept sector experienced a net outflow of 3.493 billion yuan, with 59 stocks seeing net outflows [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Changshan Beiming, with a net outflow of 439 million yuan, followed by Tuo Wei Information and Runhe Software with outflows of 386 million yuan and 327 million yuan respectively [2] - Stocks with the highest net inflows included *ST Zhisheng, Qunxing Toys, and Kaipu Cloud, with inflows of 2.600 million yuan, 1.518 million yuan, and 1.398 million yuan respectively [2] Individual Stock Performance - Notable decliners in the Huawei Ascend concept included Changshan Beiming (-5.14%), Tuo Wei Information (-4.59%), and Runhe Software (-3.26%) [3] - Other significant decliners included Wutong Technology (-10.01%) and Pingzhi Information (-7.65%) [3][4] - Stocks with positive performance included Xingtuxinke (+7.94%) and *ST Zhisheng (+4.99%) [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the computer sector, highlighting significant investment opportunities due to recent tariff reductions between China and the US [6][7]. Core Insights - The easing of tariffs is expected to boost confidence in the computer sector, particularly benefiting companies previously affected by tariff sentiments and those in the AI industry chain and fintech segments [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with core technology, high growth potential, and domestic substitution capabilities for long-term investment [6][7]. - The computer sector's foreign revenue is approximately 12%, indicating limited direct impact from tariff policies, while holdings in the sector are at a historical low, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [7][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report notes that the computer sector achieved a total revenue of RMB 286.03 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.25%, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 193.52% [8]. - The report identifies key companies for investment, including Streamax Technology, Autel Intelligent Technology, and Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, among others [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the demand for IT investments from downstream clients is expected to continue rising, supported by domestic policy efforts and economic recovery [8]. - The growth logic of the sector is further strengthened by technological iterations and demand recovery, particularly in AI applications and domestic chip development [9].

Group 1 - Huawei Pangu concept declined by 3.76%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Kute Intelligent, Kela Software, and Newcap rising to the forefront of declines [1][2] - The concept sector saw a net outflow of 1.92 billion yuan, with 25 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 10 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan, led by Changshan Beiming with a net outflow of 439 million yuan [2] - Other notable net outflows included Tuo Wei Information, Softcom Power, and Kela Software, with net outflows of 386 million yuan, 227 million yuan, and 178 million yuan respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the concept sector included NMN concept with a gain of 2.07%, while other sectors like synthetic biology and pet economy also saw positive movements [2] - The trading volume for the stocks in the Huawei Pangu concept showed significant turnover rates, with Changshan Beiming at 9.26% and Kela Software at 12.66% [2][3] - The net inflow of funds was observed in stocks like Sunshine Nuohuo and Wanda Information, with net inflows of 2.85 million yuan and 1.21 million yuan respectively [3]

Investment Rating - Rating: Overweight [1] Core Viewpoints - The launch of Harmony PC enhances Huawei's '1+8+N' strategy, positioning it to lead in the AI era and the Internet of Everything [4][6] - Harmony PC reconstructs the OS from the kernel, with a focus on performance, security, and distributed features [7] - Harmony OS ecosystem has surpassed 1 billion devices, with over 7.2 million developers and more than 20,000 native applications [9] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended targets include Chinasoft International, Isoftstone Information Technology, Newland Digital Technology, Jiangsu Hoperun Software, and Talkweb Information System; related targets include Beijing Oriental Jicheng, Jwipc Technology Co., Ltd., and Shijiazhuang ChangShan BeiMing Technology [4][6] Harmony OS Development - Harmony OS is built on a robust foundation with the Harmony kernel, Ark Engine for performance enhancement, and a distributed architecture for resource sharing [7] - The ecosystem includes over 2000 integrated applications, with 150+ dedicated PC applications already adapted [4][9] AI and IoT Integration - Harmony AI sets a new standard for smart computing, enabling system-level assistants and efficient collaboration across devices [8] - Harmony PC supports over 1000 peripheral devices, breaking hardware barriers and enhancing user experience [8] Ecosystem Growth - Huawei's ecosystem has reached over 1 billion devices, supported by a significant investment in the Harmony Ecosystem Partner Program [9] - The dual-track strategy allows compatibility with mainstream Windows applications, reducing user migration costs [9]

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.86% to close at 3,403.95, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.64% to 10,354.22 [2][6]. Industry Insights - The electronic sector is experiencing a recovery, focusing on two main themes: AI and domestic substitution [3][4]. - The robotics industry is strengthening, with an emphasis on investment opportunities in both upstream and downstream sectors [7]. - The non-bank financial sector is seeing ongoing public fund reforms and an expansion of special monetary policies [8]. Company Analysis Times New Material (600458.SH) - In 2024, Times New Material achieved revenue of 20.055 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.35%, and a net profit of 445 million, up 15.20% [11]. - The wind power blade sales reached 21.22 GW in 2024, a growth of 33.54%, with revenue from this segment at 8.2 billion, up 22.37% [12]. - The automotive parts segment also saw a record high revenue of 7.101 billion in 2024, marking a 3.51% increase [12][13]. Baiwei Storage (688525.SH) - Baiwei Storage reported a revenue of 6.695 billion in 2024, a significant increase of 86.46%, with a net profit of 161 million, up 125.82% [14]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline to 1.543 billion, down 10.62%, and a net loss of 197 million [14][15]. - The company is focusing on AI edge products, with a projected revenue growth of 294% in the AI emerging sector [15]. Shannon Chip Creation (300475.SZ) - Shannon Chip Creation achieved a revenue of 24.271 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 115.40%, with a net profit of 264 million, down 30.08% [16]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.906 billion, up 243.33%, driven by the growing demand for servers and the recovery of the storage industry [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Long-term investment strategies should focus on AI and domestic substitution themes, particularly in AI chips, lithography machines, and advanced packaging sectors [6][12]. - The robotics industry is transitioning from technology validation to mass production, with significant opportunities in algorithm models and hardware manufacturers [7]. - The electronic industry is entering a new growth cycle, supported by AI technology innovations and capital expenditures [6][12].

Key Policies - Shandong Province has introduced a series of policies to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence, aiming to create a high-quality development model by 2027, including the cultivation of 20 foundational AI models and over 100 typical application cases [4][5] - The policies focus on enhancing technological innovation, optimizing industrial ecology, and providing resource guarantees to support the entire AI industry chain [5] Key Regions - Shenzhen's "Robot Valley" has established a complete industrial ecosystem from core components to application scenarios, with significant advancements in collaborative robots and autonomous navigation technologies [6][7][8] - The number of robot companies in Shenzhen is projected to reach 74,000 by 2024, with a total industrial output value exceeding 201.2 billion yuan, marking a 39.64% year-on-year growth [10] Key Events - The Chengdu Humanoid Robot Innovation Center has achieved a breakthrough in technology, enabling humanoid robots to perform complex tasks across different spaces [33][37] - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) Robot and Artificial Intelligence Industry Conference will focus on the integration of AI and robotics, showcasing application potential across various sectors [38][40] - A 5 billion yuan robot headquarters project has been signed in Changshu, expected to generate an annual output value of 10 billion yuan upon completion [42][43] Key Companies - Amazon has launched a new warehouse robot named Vulcan, capable of performing 75% of item picking and storage tasks previously done by humans [50] - Yushutech's CEO reported a surge in orders and a talent shortage, indicating a booming humanoid robot market driven by favorable policies [51][52] - Fourier has introduced a new generation of bionic robots with advanced interaction capabilities, emphasizing the importance of human-like features in future robotics [54][66] Industry Dynamics - The integration of AI and humanoid robots is accelerating, with companies like Ruishun Technology and Aifute focusing on enhancing robot capabilities through AI [47][48] - The demand for humanoid robots in urban services is increasing, with strategic partnerships being formed to develop solutions for various applications [57][58] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards quality and innovation, with companies aiming to reduce reliance on imported components and enhance local production capabilities [24][25][28]