1. Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: December 23, 2025 [3] 2. Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Information**: On December 22, the BR主力合约 (12) price was 11230, up 210 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week. The holding volume was 103729, an increase of 1734 from the previous day and 2673 from the previous week. The trading volume was 173927, up 46651 from the previous day and 33120 from the previous week. The warrant quantity remained at 20810, with no change from the previous day but an increase of 1630 from the previous week. The virtual - real ratio was 24.92, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1 [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - variety**: The butadiene rubber basis was - 230, down 60 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was 20, down 210 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week. The 02 - 03 spread was - 15, up 10 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week. The 03 - 04 spread was - 10, down 5 from the previous day and up 15 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 3975, down 195 from the previous day and 262 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1125, down 215 from the previous day and 330 from the previous week [4]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 11000, up 150 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10900, up 100 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10900, with no daily change and an increase of 200 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price remained at 1350, and the CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 1600, both with no daily or weekly changes [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 819, up 150 from the previous day and 276 from the previous week. The import profit was - 243, up 121 from the previous day and 251 from the previous week. The export profit was 1053, down 132 from the previous day and 219 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price on December 22 was 7825, with no daily change and a decrease of 25 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7775, up 75 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7800, with no daily change and an increase of 250 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 870 [4]. - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A. The carbon four extraction profit was N/A. The butene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was - 1179, up 75 from the previous day and 80 from the previous week. The import profit was N/A, down 362 compared to a certain previous value and 287 from the previous week. The export profit was - 1352, down 66 from the previous day and up 503 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1238, with no daily change and a decrease of 50 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was N/A. The SBS production profit was - 392, with no daily change and an increase of 70 from the previous week [4]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 23 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 18% 24% 30% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,917.36 | 0.69 | 深证成指 | 13,332.73 | 1.47 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,611.62 | 0.95 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,471.83 | 1.04 ...

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is marked by significant achievements in the development of Binzhou, with a focus on high-quality growth and the implementation of major projects [1] - The city's GDP is projected to grow from 261.43 billion yuan in 2020 to 340.47 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 6% [1] - Key economic indicators show substantial progress, including industrial revenue exceeding 1 trillion yuan and retail sales surpassing 100 billion yuan [2] Economic Growth and Structural Improvement - Binzhou's GDP per capita is expected to rise from 66,600 yuan in 2020 to 87,500 yuan in 2024, with a forecast of exceeding 90,000 yuan this year [1] - The industrial structure has improved, with the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries adjusting from 9.3:41.8:48.9 in 2020 to 9.2:45.5:45.3 in 2024 [1] - The city has achieved a first-place ranking in fixed asset investment growth and public budget revenue among provinces [2] Project Investment and Development - A total of 3,288 key projects have been implemented with a total investment of 2.3 trillion yuan, significantly boosting fixed asset investment by an average of 10.3% annually from 2021 to 2024 [3] - The city has secured over 100 billion yuan in policy funds benefiting 1,394 projects, demonstrating strong project support [3] Industrial Transformation and Infrastructure - The manufacturing sector has seen an annual investment growth of 23.2%, driven by high-end aluminum and chemical projects totaling 806 billion yuan [4] - Major infrastructure projects, including highways and airports, have been completed, enhancing the city's capacity for industrial development and public service [4] Green and Low-Carbon Development - The city is advancing green development initiatives, with a focus on energy efficiency and carbon reduction, achieving a 36.02% decrease in energy intensity per unit of GDP [6] - Binzhou has been recognized for its efforts in ecological protection and has established several pilot projects for green development [5] Innovation and Emerging Industries - The city is fostering innovation in new materials and renewable energy, with significant investments in strategic emerging industries [7] - The establishment of various industrial parks is supporting the growth of new energy and materials sectors, contributing to the overall economic structure [7] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's value added is projected to grow from 127.68 billion yuan in 2020 to 154.29 billion yuan in 2024, with a contribution rate to economic growth of 50.8% [8] - The number of service sector enterprises has increased significantly, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [8] Renewable Energy Development - The city aims to establish a renewable energy base with a capacity of 10 million kilowatts, with ongoing projects expected to significantly boost the renewable energy sector [10] - By the end of this year, the installed capacity of renewable energy is expected to reach 9.59 million kilowatts, marking a 2.7-fold increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [10] Economic and Social Welfare - Urban and rural residents' disposable income is projected to reach 47,586 yuan and 24,953 yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting a significant increase [15] - The city has made substantial investments in public services, enhancing healthcare, education, and infrastructure to improve the quality of life for residents [15]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of 1.6% at the close, marking four consecutive days of gains [1][8] - Key stocks in the sector include Enjie Co., which surged by 8.32%, and other significant gains from Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengyi Petrochemical, both rising over 6% [1][8] - The basic chemical sector attracted substantial capital inflow, with a net inflow of 9.202 billion yuan on the day, ranking third among 30 sectors [11] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for lithium carbonate to $18,000 per ton for Q4 2026, significantly above the current spot price of approximately $13,500 per ton [4][10] - The demand for lithium is primarily driven by energy storage systems and electric commercial vehicles, with growth rates exceeding market expectations [4][10] - The current valuation of the chemical sector is considered attractive, with the Chemical ETF's index price-to-book ratio at 2.44, indicating a reasonable level historically [4][10] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) has seen a net subscription of 166 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [9] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a phase of improved dividend capacity and high potential dividend yields, as noted by Guohai Securities [12] - The "anti-involution" trend in the industry aims to enhance self-discipline among chemical companies, potentially stabilizing prices and profitability [12]

Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the cycle in 2025, with both investment in cyclical sectors and thematic trends progressing simultaneously. Since Q3 2025, global manufacturing has shown signs of recovery, but demand growth is slowing, leading to a decline in the PPI of chemical products year-on-year [1][65] - On the demand side, the domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, while sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow significantly. Retail sales are stabilizing, supported by ongoing consumption promotion policies [1][65] - On the supply side, China has become a global leader in the chemical industry, while the manufacturing and chemical production capacity utilization rates in the EU have been declining, particularly in Germany, where the production of basic chemicals has been continuously decreasing [1][65] Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a prolonged bottoming phase, with a three-year duration already observed. The potential for a turnaround may be approaching [1][65] - The PPI of chemical products has been under pressure, with year-on-year declines noted in major economies, including China, the EU, and Japan [9][74] - The domestic chemical industry is facing a situation of excess supply, which is exerting short-term pressure on prices, while the inventory cycle is still in a passive replenishment phase [1][65] Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - The domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, with significant declines in new construction and sales figures. The cumulative sales area of new commercial housing in major cities has decreased by 11% year-on-year [18][25] - Sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19% in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating strong market demand [25][28] - Retail sales in China have shown a steady improvement, with a growth rate of 4% year-on-year for the first eleven months of 2025, supported by consumption promotion initiatives [28][29] Group 3: Supply Side Analysis - China has replaced Europe and the US as the global leader in chemical production, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in output, while the EU and Germany have seen declines [30][36] - The production capacity in the EU has been declining, particularly in Germany, where the output of various basic chemicals has dropped significantly compared to 2019 levels [36][37] - The investment in basic chemical projects in China has turned negative, indicating a potential shift in the supply landscape as excess capacity begins to face clearing risks [1][65] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation leading companies and sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, including major players in the chemical industry such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [3][67] - The fertilizer sector is expected to benefit from slowing capacity growth and increasing overseas demand, which may support price increases [66] - The tire market is showing signs of recovery, with domestic leading companies expanding their global production bases, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [66]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The chemical sector is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4][5] - The recent suspension of anti-dumping duties on titanium dioxide by India is anticipated to allow Chinese companies to regain market share lost to competitors during the duty period [35] - The closure of four factories by Westlake Group in the U.S. is a strategic move to enhance profitability in high-performance and basic materials [35] Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 5th in overall performance for the week of December 15-19, 2025, with a gain of 2.58%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.55 percentage points [3][20] - The polyurethane sub-sector showed the highest increase at 9.04%, while non-metallic materials III experienced a decline of 2.29% [21] Specific Industry Trends - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to see significant growth due to energy structure adjustments [5] - The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle as supply constraints tighten and demand remains stable [6] - The electronic specialty gases market presents substantial opportunities for domestic companies due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [7][8] - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter feedstocks like ethane and propane [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization, driven by local demand and supply chain security concerns [9] - Potash prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a tightening supply situation [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure anticipated as demand recovers [11]

Core Insights - The restructuring of global supply chains has made "going abroad" a necessity for survival rather than an option for Chinese manufacturers, driven by geopolitical fluctuations and compliance challenges [1][3][15] - Shanghai's Pudong Jinqiao industrial cluster is leveraging "marginal innovation" to transition from single product exports to a collaborative ecosystem, showcasing a new path for globalization [1][16] - The shift from "product output" to "system capability output" reflects a significant upgrade in China's manufacturing, providing a model for emerging economies to enhance their industrial competitiveness [1][16] Company Summaries - Shanghai Haier Electric Co., a leading air conditioning compressor manufacturer, has expanded its overseas presence, establishing factories in India and Thailand to adapt to local market demands and production requirements [3][8] - Kaizhong Co., a supplier in the automotive sector, has initiated overseas production to meet customer demands for supply chain security, with a focus on North America and Europe, and has achieved profitability in its Mexican operations [4][7] - Milkwell, a comprehensive supply chain service provider, is capitalizing on the growing demand from both global chemical giants and emerging Chinese companies, offering end-to-end services and digital solutions to enhance supply chain efficiency [5][11] Industry Trends - The trend of "going abroad" is increasingly driven by the need for supply chain security and the pursuit of higher profit margins in overseas markets, particularly for high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4] - The impact of the U.S.-China trade war has prompted companies to establish overseas production to mitigate rising tariffs, with firms like Kaizhong adapting their strategies to maintain competitiveness [5][15] - The establishment of the Pudong New Area's comprehensive service center for enterprises going abroad is facilitating international expansion by providing a range of support services, including market research and compliance assistance [15][16]

氯碱周报 S H ：需求端支撑乏力 ， 预计价格反弹后重回弱势 V ：供需仍存压力 ， 价格延续底部震荡 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：烧碱行业供需仍存一定压力，虽然部分区域企业库存去库，部分区域下游采买存积极性，但库存水平依然偏高，短期暂无明显利好显现，下周价格仍偏看空。 华东地区下周供应存恢复预期，供量增加下且需求未有实质性改善，预估下周华东区域液碱价格延续弱行。山东地区需求端利好尚未显现，企业开工高位维持，出货情况一般，预 计整体山东市场弱势维持。整体看需求端支撑较弱，长期看供需仍有压力。预计烧碱价格偏弱运行。 ◼ 期货策略建议：偏空思路 ◼ 期权策略建议：暂观望 ◼ PVC主要观点：供应端本周压力不减，但受到海外装置停产提振盘面大幅反弹。下周开工率预计小幅下降，需求端内外存压，持续低迷，淡季下硬制品开工低位，软制品相对稳 定。成本端支撑预期松动，预期PVC市场继续维持区间整理运行。当前处于传统需求淡季，北方进入冬季室外施工逐渐减少，整体地产需求减量仍形成利空影响。出口方面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For plastics, the supply - demand drive is weak, and the current LLDPE weighted profit is at a low level in the same period but still has room to decline. With the end of the peak season for northern shed films and the anti - seasonal inventory accumulation, there is high pressure on destocking. High - production cycles combined with seasonal weakening of supply and demand suggest that previous short positions can be held, and some can be reduced [4]. - For PP, attention should be paid to the dynamics of PDH devices. Although the weighted profit has room to decline, the marginal device PDH profit has limited room for further compression, increasing the expectation of maintenance. Given the high inventory, previous short positions can be held, and some can be closed at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastics Market Review - This week, plastics opened flat and closed lower, with three consecutive negative weekly lines. It opened at 6486 on Monday, reached a weekly high of 6619, then continued the downward trend of last week, hitting a new low of 6314 this year on Friday, and finally closed at 6320 yuan/ton (down 166 week - on - week), with an amplitude of 305 points [3][12]. Capital - As of this Friday, the main PE positions were 59.8 million lots, showing accelerated position - building [17]. Basis - As of this Friday, the main plastics spread was - 70 yuan/ton [20]. Month - to - Month Spread - As of this Friday, the L59 spread was - 47 yuan/ton [23]. Cross - Variety Spread - As of this Friday, the LP05 spread was 107 yuan/ton (down 211 week - on - week), and the MTO05 spread was - 231 yuan/ton (down 102 week - on - week) [28]. Valuation - As of this Friday, the LLDPE weighted profit was - 248 yuan/ton (+59), with a significant compression in MTO - based profit [31]. Supply - This week, PE production was 680,000 tons (down 0.2 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 84% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.2%. Next week, due to the shutdown of some devices for maintenance, the production is expected to be 668,500 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons from this week [44]. Import and Export - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.01 million tons (down 3.4% year - on - year). In October, the import volume was 1.01 million tons (down 16% year - on - year and 1% month - on - month). The expected import volume in December is 1.16 million tons [47]. - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 910,000 tons (up 30% year - on - year). In October, the export volume was 80,000 tons (up 35% year - on - year and down 16% month - on - month). The expected export volume in November is 94,000 tons [50]. Demand - This week, the PE downstream capacity utilization rate was 42%, showing a four - week decline. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PE increased by 11% year - on - year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to November 2025 were 45.6 trillion yuan (a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0%), with a continuous five - month decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate [63]. - The downstream agricultural film operating rate was 45% (down 1.2 pct), showing a five - week decline. The PE packaging film operating rate was 49% (down 0.6 pct), showing a four - week decline [65]. Inventory - As of this Friday, the polyolefin petrochemical inventory was 660,000 tons (up 6.5 year - on - year) [76]. - This week, the PE enterprise inventory was 490,000 tons (up 2 week - on - week and 10 year - on - year), remaining at a high level in the same period. The PE social inventory was 470,000 tons (up 1.2 week - on - week and 5 year - on - year). The PE commercial inventory was 990,000 tons (up 3 week - on - week and 15 year - on - year) [79][82][85]. PP Market Review - This week, PP fluctuated at a low level, with a positive weekly line. It opened 9 points higher at 6178 on Monday, briefly reached a weekly low of 6165, then quickly rose and fell back, with a maximum of 6315. From Tuesday to Friday, it fluctuated narrowly around 6250, and finally closed at 6213 (up 45 week - on - week), with an amplitude of 150 points [7][15]. Capital - No relevant information provided. Basis - As of this Friday, the main PP spread was - 34 yuan/ton [20]. Month - to - Month Spread - As of this Friday, the PP59 spread was - 27 yuan/ton [23]. Cross - Variety Spread - As of this Friday, the LP05 spread was 107 yuan/ton (down 211 week - on - week), and the MTO05 spread was - 231 yuan/ton (down 102 week - on - week) [28]. Valuation - As of this Friday, the PP weighted profit was - 692 yuan/ton (+96), with a significant compression in PDH and externally - purchased propylene - based profit [31]. Supply - This week, PP production was 820,000 tons (up 1 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 79%. Next week, the total PP production in China is estimated to be 810,000 tons, showing a decline from this week due to an increase in maintenance plans [53]. Import and Export - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.73 million tons (down 9% year - on - year). In October, the PP import volume was 270,000 tons (down 12% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month) [58]. - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 2.58 million tons (up 27% year - on - year). In October, the PP export volume was 240,000 tons (up 19% year - on - year and down 1% month - on - month) [60]. Demand - This week, the PP downstream operating rate was 54%, ending a ten - week increase, with only BOPP showing a month - on - month increase. From January to October 2025, the apparent consumption of PP increased by 13.1% year - on - year. In October, the apparent consumption of PP was 3.54 million tons [68]. - This week, the plastic braiding operating rate was 44%, and the BOPP operating rate was 63%, showing an eleven - week increase [71]. Inventory - This week, the PP enterprise inventory was 540,000 tons (up 0.1 week - on - week and 11 year - on - year), remaining at a high level in the same period. The PP trader inventory was 200,000 tons (down 0.9 week - on - week and up 7 year - on - year), remaining at a high level in the same period. The PP commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (down 0.9 week - on - week and up 19 year - on - year) [79][82][85]. Production Plan - In 2025 and 2026, there are large - scale production plans for PE and PP devices, indicating that 2026 is still in a high - production cycle [40][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The polyolefin price trend was divided this week. The continuous decline in the PE agricultural film operating rate led the L main contract to seek the bottom unilaterally. The PP operating rate was decent, and the slight increase in the BOPP operating rate supported the PP main contract price. Overall, the fundamental situation remained one of strong supply and weak demand, and there was significant upward pressure on polyolefins as a whole. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6300 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with attention on the 6200 support level. The LP spread is expected to narrow [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6320 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.56%. The average price of LDPE was 8550 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.54%. The average price of HDPE was 7012.5 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6605 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.42%. The LLDPE South China basis was 285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.75%. The 1 - 5 month spread was -48 yuan/ton (-38) [12]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -48 yuan/ton (-38), the 5 - 9 month spread was -47 yuan/ton (-14), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (52) [18]. - **Key Data Tracking - Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [20][21]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.54 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.99 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.10 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (-30) [23]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was -279 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was -13 yuan/ton, an increase of 163 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 67.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.86 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous week [32]. - **Key Data Tracking - 2025 Commissioning Plan**: A total of 543 tons of new polyethylene production capacity was planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already commissioned and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many polyethylene production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [37]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 45.18%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging films was 48.96%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.00%, unchanged from the previous weekend [39]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films was the highest, accounting for 37.3%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data was significant, currently accounting for 8.6%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level [42]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 46.87 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [45]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11332 lots, unchanged from the previous week [48]. PP - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83% [52]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [54][56]. - **Key Data Tracking - Basis**: On December 19, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi was 6253.33 yuan/ton (-0%). The PP basis was 40 yuan/ton (-84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was -81 yuan/ton (-42) [58]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -81 yuan/ton (-42), the 5 - 9 month spread was -27 yuan/ton (16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 108 yuan/ton (26) [63]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: The cost situation was the same as that of plastic, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing and anthracite price at the Yangtze River port also decreasing [68]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was -522.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.14 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was -576.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China was 79.40%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 81.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The weekly output of PP powder was 6.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.72% [75]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [78]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 53.80% (-0.19). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.00% (-0.06%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+0.31%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.50% (-0.05%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.07% (-0.23%) [80]. - **Key Data Tracking - Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was -318.03 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was -1.18 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week [86]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.78 tons (+0.13%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 1.73% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.34% week - on - week; and the port inventory decreased by 1.03% week - on - week. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1012.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 10.12 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.91% [89][95]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 10934 lots, a decrease of 4813 lots from the previous week [99].