第一名 长江证券研究团队 专题：第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。逾300名权威学 者、公私募掌舵人、上市公司董事长、顶级基金经理、首席分析师齐聚上海，共同探讨中国资本市场的 未来机遇。 同时，第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师评选结果隆重揭晓。 第七届新浪财经金麒麟新能源汽车与零部件行业"最佳分析师"荣誉榜如下： （首席分析师：崔琰；团队成员：白如、乔木、杜丰帆、马天韵、姜煦洲、完颜尚文） 第四名 国联民生证券研究团队 （首席分析师：高登；团队成员：陈斯竹、裴婉晓、辛鹏、喻虎、于健） 第五名 广发证券研究团队 （首席分析师：闫俊刚；联席首席：陈子坤；核心成员：陈昕；团队成员：曹瑞元、李天帅、黄思悦、 高翔、陈飞彤、周伟、张力月） 第六名 中泰证券研究团队 （首席分析师：邬博华；团队成员：曹海花、司鸿历、叶之楠、王耀、张永乾、王子豪、任佳惠、喻亨 一、周圣钧、张扬、申浩树、袁澎） 第二名 东吴证券研究团队 （首席分析师：黄细里；团队成员：刘力宇、孟璐、郭雨蒙） 第三名 民生证券研究团队 （首席分析师：何俊艺；团队成员：刘欣畅 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference and the 7th Sina Finance "Golden Unicorn" Best Analyst Award Ceremony took place on November 28, gathering over 300 authoritative scholars, public and private fund leaders, listed company chairpersons, top fund managers, and chief analysts in Shanghai to discuss future opportunities in the Chinese capital market [1] - The results of the 7th Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Elite Analyst selection were announced [2] Group 2 - The top five teams in the oil and chemical industry "Elite Analyst" honor list are as follows: 1. Guosen Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Yang Lin; Co-Chief: Li Yonglei; Team Members: Xue Cong, Yu Shuangyu, Zhang Xinyu, Wang Xinhang, Dong Bingxu) 2. Minsheng Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Liu Hairong; Team Members: Fei Chenhong, Liu Longji, Li Jiahao, Zeng Jiachun, Li Jinfeng) 3. GF Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Wu Xinran; Core Member: Qu Shanghao) 4. CITIC Construction Investment Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Lu Hao; Team Members: Deng Tianze, Tao Aipu, Zhou Zhou) 5. Zhongtai Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Sun Ying; Team Members: Nie Lei, Zhang Kun, Cao Hui, Nong Yu) [3]

据了解，本次大会以"中流击水"为主题，聚焦当下一级市场正在经历的深度变化。大会汇聚了荀玉根， 太盟中国董事长邱中伟，前海方舟董事长靳海涛，上海国投副总裁许业荣，阳光电源（300274）产业投 资总裁、阳电资本董事长解小勇，工银资本董事长陆胜东等多位行业嘉宾。 中证报中证网讯(记者王辉)11月27日，投中信息和投中网主办的第19届中国投资年会.有限合伙人峰会在 上海举行。国信证券首席经济学家、研究所所长荀玉根在本次大会上发表主题演讲时表示，智能制造的 发展潜力和高ROE行业的成长，有望提高未来中国股市的回报中枢。 结合历史经验，荀玉根判断，当前市场处于长期上行趋势的中期，基本面逐步改善，科技类行业仍 有"扩散空间"，而智能制造的发展潜力和高ROE(净资产收益率)行业的成长，有望提高未来中国股市的 回报中枢，为资本市场和经济长期发展奠定基础。 荀玉根在"希望的田野——中国经济和资本市场展望"的主题演讲中，对中国经济和资本市场进行了深入 分析。荀玉根表示，当前中国经济正处于新旧动能转换期，面临内需不足等挑战，但政策持续宽松推动 股市回暖，为消费和投资信心提供支撑。展望2026年，宏观政策、外部环境和科技创新将形成多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry is undergoing significant downsizing, with over 30 firms, including prominent names like Industrial Securities and Guosen Securities, closing more than 180 branches in response to rising operational costs and the shift towards online services driven by technology [1][2][4]. Group 1: Branch Closures - Industrial Securities has led the industry in branch closures, announcing the cancellation of 41 branches this year alone, including multiple locations in November [2][3]. - Other firms, such as Caida Securities and Jin Yuan Securities, have also announced branch closures, indicating a broader trend within the industry [3]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The brokerage sector faces challenges such as increased competition and rising fixed costs, prompting firms to streamline operations by closing physical branches [4]. - Merging nearby branches can create economies of scale, reduce operational costs, and enhance management efficiency, allowing firms to focus resources on wealth management [4]. Group 3: Employee Transition Challenges - Employees in brokerage firms are facing job insecurity due to branch closures, with a notable decrease in the number of securities brokers from 29,000 to 23,800 over the past year [5][6]. - The industry is shifting towards specialized roles in wealth management and advisory services, necessitating a transformation in employee skill sets to remain competitive [6].

Group 1 - The A-share market is showing weakness, while the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index is rising, currently up approximately 0.35%, with leading stocks including Hengyi Petrochemical, Xingfa Group, and Chuanfa Longmang [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen net inflows in 9 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 25.75 million yuan [1] - Guosen Securities suggests three main investment themes: 1) resource and overseas supply chains under macro mid-term trends, 2) technology "AI+" under strong industrial trends, and 3) policy-driven "anti-involution" and self-sufficiency [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.8% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.2%, indicating potential benefits from policies aimed at anti-involution, structural adjustments, and phasing out outdated capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - HeXin Instruments (688622.SH) reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating ongoing financial challenges for the company [1]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 70.54 million yuan, a decrease of 52.81% year-on-year [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -36.20 million yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of -39.75 million yuan [1][2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was -6.46 million yuan [1][2]. Historical Context - In 2024, HeXin Instruments reported an operating revenue of 203 million yuan, down 44.70% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -45.99 million yuan [3]. - The company has consistently reported negative net profits over the past few years, with figures of -63.33 million yuan in 2022 and -96.11 million yuan in 2023 [3]. Initial Public Offering (IPO) Details - HeXin Instruments raised a total of 310 million yuan from its IPO, with a net amount of 273 million yuan after deducting issuance costs [3]. - The company initially planned to raise 326 million yuan, but the final net amount was 53.52 million yuan less than expected [3].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The financial sector, including banking and non-banking institutions, is expected to benefit from supportive policies in Q4 2025, with monetary policy remaining moderately loose and fiscal policy becoming more proactive through special government bonds and targeted debt measures to expand domestic demand and mitigate risks [1][3] Key Points on Banking Sector - The banking industry is projected to perform positively in the first half of 2025, with profit growth turning positive year-on-year, driven by accelerated scale expansion and effective hedging against margin compression [1][4] - Recommendations for investment include: - High-dividend state-owned banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank [4] - Quality regional commercial banks with strong performance, such as Chengdu Bank and Suzhou Bank [4] - Shareholding banks with low valuations and improving expectations, such as Industrial Bank and China Minsheng Bank [4] Key Points on Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector saw significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters, with a steady increase in leverage due to an active capital market [1][5] - The recovery of IPO and refinancing activities is expected to enhance brokerage income, with performance elasticity likely to be fully realized [1][5] - Suggested focus on strong comprehensive capabilities like Guosen Securities and regionally distinctive firms with merger potential such as Dongwu Securities and Changjiang Securities [5] Key Points on Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's liabilities have performed better than expected, with stable growth in life insurance premium income, particularly through the bancassurance channel [1][6] - The decline in fixed deposit rates has boosted the sales of participating insurance, optimizing the income structure [6] - The recovery of the equity market has improved investment returns for insurance companies, suggesting a focus on the sustainability of asset-liability resonance and low-valuation companies with solid fundamentals like China Pacific Insurance and People's Insurance [6] Investment Strategy for Financial Sector - The core strategy for Q4 is to seek stability while aiming for progress, capitalizing on the year-end performance window and pursuing certain elasticities [1][7] - There are opportunities for upward trends from long-term cyclical bottoms, including potential recovery for some shareholding banks [7] - Caution is advised regarding potential risks such as overall market pullbacks, changes in policy implementation expectations, and fluctuations in global macroeconomic data [2][8]

Group 1: AI Empowerment in Asset Allocation - The report discusses the performance of three representative AI asset management products: AIEQ, ProPicks, and QRFT, evaluating whether AI can provide excess returns to investors [8] - AIEQ, an actively managed ETF, has underperformed SPY due to high market sentiment volatility and cost erosion from high turnover rates [8] - ProPicks has shown strong returns during favorable tech periods but is highly sensitive to execution discipline and slippage, making actual replication challenging [8] - QRFT has closely tracked the S&P 500 over the long term, showing significant phase differentiation, indicating a focus on narrow enhancements rather than stable high alpha [8] Group 2: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Sector - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the overall market, with a 4.32% decline in the A-share market, and the biopharmaceutical sector fell by 6.88% [10] - The report highlights the treatment options for Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS), noting that the prevalence in Western populations is approximately 1%, with around 320,000 diagnosed patients in the U.S. [11] - First-line therapies for HS primarily involve antibiotics, while second-line biological treatments include Adalimumab and IL-17A inhibitors, which have gained market share due to their efficacy and safety [11] Group 3: Atour (ATAT.O) Financial Performance - Atour reported a 38% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, raising its full-year revenue growth guidance from 30% to 35% [13] - The company’s retail business saw a remarkable 76% revenue growth, significantly contributing to the overall performance [13] - The number of hotels in operation increased by 27% year-on-year, with a total of 1,948 hotels by the end of Q3 2025 [14] Group 4: Hars (002615.SZ) Industry Leadership - Hars is a leading company in the cup and kettle industry, with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% from 2021 to 2024, reaching 3.3 billion [17] - The company operates both OEM/ODM and proprietary brand businesses, maintaining stable partnerships with international brands like YETI and PMI [17] - The domestic market for insulated cups is expected to replicate overseas trends, with significant growth potential driven by IP collaborations and social media marketing [18]

Core Viewpoint - The retail industry is experiencing increased market volatility as of the end of 2025, with a focus on capturing new consumption trends and expectations for a reversal of traditional consumption challenges [1] 2025 Review - In the first nine months of 2025, the total retail sales reached 36,587.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, with retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles growing by 4.9% [2] - By category, cosmetics sales grew by 3.9%, while gold and jewelry sales surged by 11.5% due to a low base last year and rising gold prices [2] - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 2,060 billion yuan, marking a 6.4% increase, demonstrating resilience despite external impacts such as tariffs [2] - The consumption landscape shows structural highlights in sectors like pets, trendy toys, personal care, and jewelry, driven by insights into new consumer demands and product innovation [2] - The new consumption industry trends and expectations for a reversal in traditional consumption challenges are identified as the two main themes, with a positive market performance at the beginning of the year followed by a cooling trend later on [2] 2026 Outlook - New markets will be explored domestically, including customer return during offline channel adjustments and new dividends from innovative business models like instant retail, while overseas expansion remains crucial for Chinese brands [3] - New demands will focus on insights into emerging consumer preferences, emphasizing emotional and practical value in products, and exploring innovation through IP+ and AI+ [3] - A platform-based approach is necessary due to intensified competition, requiring companies to create mechanisms for continuous growth through both internal and external opportunities [3] Investment Recommendations - For beauty and personal care, focus on leading companies with room for product innovation and those with platform capabilities for iterative growth, such as Shangmei Co., Proya, and others [4] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies with differentiated designs and expansion potential are expected to benefit, including Chao Hong Ji and Chow Tai Fook [4] - For cross-border e-commerce, leading firms expanding in target markets and new categories will see sustained fundamental catalysts, such as Small Commodity City and Anker Innovations [4] - In offline retail, companies showing initial operational improvements should be monitored, including Jiajiayue and Miniso [4]

Group 1 - The current bull market is still in its early stages, with characteristics of a late bull market, such as a surge of new investors and complacency among old investors, not yet observed [1] - Historical reference to the "5.19 market" indicates that bull markets typically last 1-2 years, and the current cycle has only lasted one year, suggesting further potential for growth [1] - The macroeconomic environment is challenging, with the stock market performing strongly despite economic difficulties, reminiscent of the period from 1998 to 2000 [2] Group 2 - The key to resolving economic issues lies in halting the decline in asset prices, similar to the policy interventions seen in 1999 that spurred market growth [3] - The external environment is favorable for China, as the Federal Reserve is entering a rate-cutting cycle, which could provide room for domestic policy easing [3] - The emergence of new economic sectors, particularly in intelligent manufacturing, is expected to drive industrial upgrades and surpass the old economy's dominance [4] Group 3 - Intelligent manufacturing is gaining traction, with significant advancements such as the DeepSeek-R1 model achieving performance comparable to OpenAI's models at a lower cost [4] - The cost advantages of Chinese intelligent manufacturing are highlighted by the large number of engineering graduates, which supports the sector's growth [4] - The successful transition from old to new economic drivers is anticipated, with intelligent manufacturing expected to play a crucial role in this transformation [4]