证券研究报告 关注自由现金流指数 ——3月基金配置展望 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 研究助理 2026年3月3日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 基金配置建议：关注自由现金流指数 2 2月回顾：A股、美股市场涨跌分化；美债、国债利率下行；商品价格先下后上，原油价格上涨，黄金上涨；美元指数上行，人民币升值。海外 政策和地缘环境扰动、AI替代恐慌等因素共同作用下，权益市场涨跌分化。全球避险情绪升温，美债、国债利率下行。 3月展望：资产配置的逻辑。股债轮动模型显示，2026年1月私人部门融资增速、通胀因子下行，基本面复苏信号信号有所波动。2月市场动量因 子收正，综合基本面与动量信号的择时模型继续看多权益资产。本月基于7个情绪指标构建的A股情绪指数显示，看多未来一个月权益市场表现 的情绪指标有所回落，市场情绪指数跌出乐观区间。基于宏观综合指标的港股择时策略显示看多 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xingye Silver Tin has seen a significant increase in stock price, with a rise of 5.01% to 54.75 CNY per share, and a total market capitalization of 97.216 billion CNY [1] - Xingye Silver Tin Mining Co., Ltd. is located in Chifeng City, Inner Mongolia, and was established on August 23, 1996. The company primarily engages in the mining and smelting of non-ferrous and ferrous metal resources [1] - The main revenue composition of the company includes silver (34.80%), tin (30.81%), zinc (19.32%), lead (5.12%), iron (3.34%), antimony (2.90%), copper (2.01%), gold (0.66%), bismuth (0.32%), and other minerals (0.72%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under CITIC Prudential has a significant position in Xingye Silver Tin, with 46,500 shares held, representing 0.51% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The CITIC Prudential CSI 500 Index (LOF) A fund has a total scale of 204 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 13.9%, ranking 743 out of 5,574 in its category [2] - The fund has a one-year return of 40.88%, ranking 1,250 out of 4,326, and a cumulative return since inception of 202.72% [2]

资料显示，湖南黄金股份有限公司位于湖南省长沙经济技术开发区人民东路二段217号14楼，成立日期 2000年12月26日，上市日期2007年8月16日，公司主营业务涉及黄金及锑、钨等有色金属矿山的开采、 选矿,金锑钨等有色金属的冶炼及加工,黄金、精锑的深加工及有色金属矿产品的进出口业务等。主营业 务收入构成为：黄金94.68%，氧化锑2.09%，精锑1.53%，含量锑0.63%，其他0.43%，乙二醇锑0.42%， 钨品0.24%。 2月27日，湖南黄金涨5.08%，截至发稿，报36.01元/股，成交30.57亿元，换手率5.55%，总市值562.71 亿元。湖南黄金股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅5.45%。 截至发稿，王颖累计任职时间9年14天，现任基金资产总规模61.87亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 78.67%， 任职期间最差基金回报-8.42%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 从基金十大 ...

Group 1 - The South Korea-China Semiconductor ETF (513310) surged by 9.64%, leading the market on February 26, with a premium rate of 21.10% and a turnover rate exceeding 125% [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector continues to rise, driven by a sustained "supply-demand imbalance" in the global storage industry, which is expected to maintain its upward trend until after 2027 [2] - The strong performance of the semiconductor design sector is attributed to Nvidia's impressive earnings report and the ongoing demand for AI computing power, alongside accelerated domestic industry development and supportive policies [2] Group 2 - The short-term bond ETF Hai Futong (511360) recorded a transaction volume exceeding 66 billion yuan, ranking first in the market [3] - Several A500 ETFs, including A500 ETF Fund (512050) and A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan (563360), saw significant trading volumes, indicating renewed investor interest in broad-based ETFs [3] - There was a notable net inflow into the Hang Seng Technology and Hong Kong internet-themed ETFs, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment despite market volatility [4] Group 3 - The market is expected to transition from valuation-driven logic to earnings-driven logic, with a focus on the quality of earnings, cash flow, and dividend capabilities of listed companies [5] - The dual focus on cyclical and technology sectors is emerging, with the performance of both sectors likely to depend on the verification of fundamental strengths [5][6] - In the context of economic recovery, the market is anticipated to maintain a volatile upward trend, favoring large and mid-cap blue-chip stocks [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant performance of various ETFs, particularly the South Korea-China Semiconductor ETF, which surged by 9.64%, leading the market with a premium rate of 21.10% and a turnover rate of 125.76% [1][5] - The short-term bond ETF, Hai Futong, recorded a transaction volume exceeding 66 billion yuan, making it the top ETF in the market for that day [4][6] - There was a notable inflow of funds into broad-based ETFs such as the CSI 500 ETF and the A500 ETFs, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5][7] Group 2 - The semiconductor equipment sector continues to rise, driven by strong demand for AI and a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the global storage industry, which is expected to last until at least 2027 [2][3] - The chip design sector saw a significant rally, attributed to Nvidia's impressive earnings report and ongoing domestic industry development supported by favorable policies [3] - Several ETFs related to power grids and communications also experienced notable gains, reflecting a broader market trend towards these sectors [1][2] Group 3 - The market is currently experiencing a shift from valuation-driven growth to earnings-driven performance, with an increasing focus on the quality of earnings, cash flow, and dividend capabilities of listed companies [8] - The investment strategy is suggested to adopt a phased approach or dollar-cost averaging to capture long-term opportunities amidst market volatility [8] - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with mid-cap and large-cap blue-chip stocks likely to outperform in the context of economic recovery [8]

Group 1 - The South Korea-China Semiconductor ETF (513310) surged by 9.64%, nearing the daily limit, leading the market ETFs with a premium rate of 21.10% and a turnover rate of 125.76% [1][4][8] - The Short-term Bond ETF (511360) recorded a transaction volume exceeding 66 billion yuan, ranking first among all market ETFs [2][8][9] - Several A500 ETFs, including A500 ETF Fund (512050) and A500 ETF Huatai (563360), saw significant trading volumes, indicating strong investor interest [2][8] Group 2 - The semiconductor equipment sector continues to rise, driven by a sustained "supply-demand imbalance" in the global storage industry, with expectations of continued growth until after 2027 [6] - The chip design sector experienced a significant rally, supported by strong performance from Nvidia and ongoing domestic industry development and policy support [6] - The film and insurance sectors faced declines, with the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector experiencing substantial drops, as multiple Hong Kong pharmaceutical ETFs fell over 3% [6][7] Group 3 - Funds began to flow back into broad-based ETFs such as the CSI 500 ETF (510500) and the A500 ETF Southern (159352) on February 25, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [10] - The Hong Kong technology and internet-themed ETFs saw significant net inflows, suggesting a renewed interest in these sectors despite market volatility [10] - The market is expected to transition from "valuation-driven" to "earnings-driven" as investor focus shifts towards the quality of earnings and cash flow of listed companies [12]

2月26日，百济神州跌5.27%，截至发稿，报264.50元/股，成交10.74亿元，换手率3.47%，总市值 4075.09亿元。 资料显示，百济神州有限公司位于北京市昌平区中关村生命科学园科学园路30号，成立日期2010年10月 28日，上市日期2021年12月15日，公司主营业务涉及研究、开发、生产以及商业化创新型药物。主营业 务收入构成为：药品销售收入99.10%，合作安排收入0.90%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，中信保诚基金旗下1只基金重仓百济神州。中信保诚中证800医药指数(LOF)A（165519）四 季度持有股数1.19万股，占基金净值比例为1.99%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约 17.55万元。 中信保诚中证800医药指数(LOF)A（165519）成立日期2021年1月1日，最新规模1.47亿。今年以来收益 1.77%，同类排名4581/5572；近一年收益16.18%，同类排名3257/4311；成立以来收益89.35%。 中信保诚中证800医药指数(LOF)A（165519）基金经理为黄稚。 截至发稿，黄稚累计任职时间7年219天，现任基金资产总规模44.18亿 ...

Group 1 - A-shares are experiencing a strong performance with multiple sectors showing structural opportunities amid a mild economic recovery and accelerated industrial upgrades [1] - Public fund institutions are optimistic about sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and consumer goods, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][4] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, driven by cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI-related activities [3] Group 2 - Incremental capital inflow into the A-share market is anticipated, supported by manufacturing investment and capital expenditure from listed companies [2] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with long-term planning providing ample policy space and external uncertainties easing [3] - The AI sector is a focal point for public fund strategies, with expectations of significant growth in annual recurring revenue from AI applications [4] Group 3 - The semiconductor industry is expected to see rapid changes driven by AI developments, with a focus on individual stock performance and industry trends [4] - The consumer sector is at a critical turning point, with potential for investment opportunities as consumer demand shifts towards high-end products and services [4] - Cyclical industries are highlighted as key investment narratives for 2026, with a shift from being price takers to value creators in the manufacturing sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance post-Spring Festival, with multiple sectors showing structural opportunities amid economic recovery and industrial upgrades [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Analysts from various public funds expect continued inflow of incremental capital into the A-share market, supported by manufacturing investment and capital expenditure from listed companies [1] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with long-term planning and policy encouraging sustained capital market participation, leading to upward market momentum [2] - The market is likely to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, driven by cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI-related sectors [2] Group 2: Sector Focus - The AI sector is a focal point for public fund strategies, with expectations for significant growth in AI applications and revenue generation from major players like OpenAI and Google [3] - The semiconductor industry is rapidly evolving, driven by AI developments, with a focus on individual stock performance and industry trends [4] - The consumer sector is at a critical turning point, with anticipated investment opportunities emerging as consumer demand shifts towards high-end and service consumption [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Public funds are emphasizing cyclical industries, with a narrative shift expected in 2026 as policy-driven changes and global supply chain restructuring elevate Chinese manufacturing leaders to a position of pricing power [4] - Investment strategies should focus on technology sectors, including semiconductors and AI, as well as industries related to external demand such as chemicals and machinery [4]

Group 1 - A-shares are presenting structural opportunities at the beginning of 2026, with public funds initiating a new round of investment amidst economic recovery and accelerated industrial upgrades [1][7] - Major institutions believe that sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and consumption have structural opportunities [1][7] Group 2 - There is an expectation of significant inflow of incremental funds into A-shares in 2026, supported by manufacturing investment and capital expenditure adjustments [2][8] - The domestic demand side, driven by fiscal policies, particularly the structural changes in special bonds, will influence A-share pricing [2][8] - The current environment is characterized by expanding liquidity and increased risk appetite, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policies [2][8] Group 3 - The AI sector is a focal point for public fund strategies, with expectations for continued strong performance in the AI industry chain in the first half of 2026 [4][10] - Significant advancements in AI models, such as Google Gemini 3 and Banana, are expected to boost market confidence and drive demand for AI computing power [4][10] - The semiconductor industry is rapidly evolving, driven by AI large models, with a focus on domestic production and R&D [5][11] Group 4 - The consumption sector is anticipated to see a resurgence in investment opportunities in 2026, driven by the release of wealth effects and an upgrade in high-end and service consumption demand [5][11] - The cyclical industry narrative is expected to undergo a transformation in 2026, influenced by policy-driven "anti-involution" and the reshaping of global supply chains [5][12]