来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇12月22日｜格隆汇今日线上举办"科技赋能·资本破局"分享会。备受瞩目的卓越公司评选榜单隆 重揭晓。其中，格隆汇"金格奖"年度卓越公司评选中，途虎-W(9690.HK)荣获"年度投资价值"奖项。 "年度投资价值奖"奖项重点考察上市公司的营收以及净利润增长，并从公司规模、商业模式、管理能 力、创新能力等多方面综合考量。该奖项体现了对上市公司盈利能力以及稳定投资回报的肯定，也是对 其经营能力的高度肯定。 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|商贸零售 受国补边际效应减弱、中秋假期错位等 影响，9 月社零增速放缓 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年10月21日 邓文慧 郭家玮 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590525030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 证券研究报告 |报告要点 国家统计局发布社零数据，9 月份，社零总额为 4.20 万亿元，同比增长 3.0%。其中，除汽车 以外的消费品零售额为 3.73 万亿元，同比增长 3.2%；限额以上单位消费品零售额 1.78 万亿 元，同比增长 2.3%。 |分析师及联系人 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年10月21日 商贸零售 受国补边际效应减弱、中秋假期错位等影响， 9 月社零增速放缓 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2024/10 2025/2 2025/6 2025/10 商贸零售 沪深300 相关报告 1、《商贸零售：7 月社零同比+3.7%，环比有 所回落》2025.08.16 2、《商贸 ...

Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that capacity reductions in the mainland automotive industry are driving industry consolidation, with luxury car dealers expected to benefit first [1] - The report anticipates a significant acceleration in dealership closures from 2025 to 2026, as the overall profit margin for new cars fell below 1% in the first half of this year, making it unattractive for smaller dealers [1] - Car manufacturers plan to reduce their dealership networks in mainland China by 10% to 30% by the end of 2026, which will favor financially stable dealers [1] Company Insights - Zhongsheng Holdings is expected to experience a turning point after four years of decline, with a projected 67% year-on-year rebound in profits to 4 billion yuan by 2026, driven by a recovery in new car profit margins and increased market share in the unexpected repair sector [1] - The decrease in capital expenditure requirements suggests that the expected dividend yield of 5% in 2026 has room for growth; the target price has been raised from 15 HKD to 21 HKD, with a rating of "Overweight" [1] - Tuhu has also been given an "Overweight" rating, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 25% in profits from 2025 to 2027, based on user growth from its app and expansion of franchise stores; the target price has been increased from 20 HKD to 23 HKD [1]

Core Insights - The automotive aftermarket is characterized by a lack of transparency and trust, leading to significant challenges for consumers when choosing service providers [1][2] - Tuhu has established itself as a leader in the industry by focusing on supply chain, technology, and service, creating a high-quality development loop centered on efficiency and trust [1][4] Market Dynamics - As of June 2025, the total number of motor vehicles in China is projected to reach 460 million, with 359 million being cars, driving increased demand for maintenance and repair services [1] - The market share of independent aftermarket (IAM) is expected to surpass that of 4S stores by 2027, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards efficiency, transparency, and cost-effectiveness [2] Company Performance - Tuhu has over 150 million registered users and 26.5 million annual transaction users, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.8% [2] - The number of Tuhu service centers has reached 7,205, covering 320 cities and 1,855 counties, showcasing the company's expanding footprint [2] Technological Advancements - Tuhu has developed a digital supply chain system that includes real-time predictive algorithms, managing a database of 9.5 million SKUs across seven categories [3][4] - The company has achieved a same-day and next-day delivery rate of 83%, with fulfillment costs decreasing to 4.1% [4] Service Enhancement - Tuhu is enhancing service quality by providing systematic training and support for franchisees and technicians, improving user experience and brand recognition [5] - The company has initiated a "10 billion subsidy, 10,000 stores" plan to lower operational barriers for new stores, thereby increasing their competitiveness [5]

Core Insights - The automotive aftermarket is characterized by a lack of trust and high information asymmetry, leading to significant price discrepancies and concerns over parts quality [1][2] - Tuhu has established a high-quality development loop focused on efficiency and trust, addressing the industry's challenges through supply chain, technology, and service improvements [1][4] Market Dynamics - As of June 2025, the total number of motor vehicles in China is projected to reach 460 million, with 359 million being cars, driving increased demand for maintenance and repair services [2] - The market share of independent aftermarket (IAM) is expected to surpass that of 4S stores by 2027, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards efficiency, transparency, and cost-effectiveness [3] Company Performance - Tuhu has achieved a registered user base of over 150 million and an annual transaction user count of 26.5 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.8% [3] - The number of Tuhu's service centers has reached 7,205, covering 320 cities and 1,855 counties, showcasing its extensive market presence [3] Technological Advancements - Tuhu has restructured the supply chain through digitalization, creating a closed-loop system that includes inventory, transportation, order, and store management [4] - The company has developed a database covering 9.5 million SKUs, significantly enhancing its inventory management capabilities [4] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Strategy - Tuhu's user base for NEVs has exceeded 3.4 million, marking an 83.5% year-on-year increase, with NEV users accounting for over 12% of total transactions [5] - The company has launched specialized repair projects in 54 cities, resulting in a more than 200% increase in related orders [5] Service Quality Enhancement - Tuhu is focused on improving service quality by enhancing the professional skills of franchisees and technicians, which in turn boosts user experience and brand recognition [6] - The company has initiated a 1 billion yuan subsidy program to lower operational barriers for new stores, aiming to increase their survival rate and competitiveness [6] Ecosystem Integration - Tuhu is integrating the fragmented automotive aftermarket into a cohesive, efficient, and transparent service ecosystem, leveraging its robust infrastructure and technological capabilities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International highlights Tuhu-W's (9690) strong management capabilities, which enable the company to achieve steady growth and significant market share gains despite industry headwinds [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Tuhu reported revenue of 7.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with growth accelerating compared to 2024 [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 410 million RMB, up 15% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The adjusted total operating expense ratio was 22.4%, continuing a trend of optimization [1] - Free cash flow improved by 32.2% to 350 million RMB compared to the same period last year [1] - As of the end of the reporting period, Tuhu had over 7.5 billion RMB in cash reserves, indicating strong financial health [1] Market Position and Expansion - Tuhu's workshop store network expanded to 7,205 locations by June 30, 2025, a 14% increase year-on-year, maintaining industry leadership [2] - The store network covers 320 prefecture-level administrative regions and 1,855 county-level regions across all provincial-level areas except for Macau and Taiwan, achieving a 70% coverage rate in counties with over 20,000 passenger vehicles [2] Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Tuhu has significantly invested in supply chain automation, with the launch of the first fully automated retail warehouse in Guangzhou, reducing labor costs by 60% and achieving 2.5 times the efficiency of traditional warehousing [4] - The next-day delivery rate for Tuhu logistics improved to 83%, while fulfillment costs decreased by 0.5 percentage points [4] Support for Franchisees - In response to market conditions, Tuhu increased support for franchise workshop stores, launching initiatives such as "10 Billion Subsidy, 10,000 Stores Together" and "Tuhu New Youth" to enhance competitiveness [4] - Approximately 90% of Tuhu workshop stores operating for over six months remained profitable, with same-store fulfillment user numbers growing by over 7% year-on-year [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Tuhu's revenue for the first half of the year increased by 11% year-on-year, meeting expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit grew by 15% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, primarily due to non-operating income [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 while raising adjusted net profit forecasts by 0-3% [1] Group 2 - The expectation for the second half of the year includes a revenue growth of 11% and an adjusted net profit growth of 33% [1] - Goldman Sachs raised the target price from HKD 21.9 to HKD 22.4 and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

高盛发表研报指，途虎上半年收入按年增长11%至79亿元，快于去年下半年的8%增速，符合预期；期 内经调整净利润按年增长15%，优于预期，主要受非营运收入及收益带动。该行对其2025至27年收入预 测大致维持不变，经调整净利润预测上调0至3%。至于下半年，该行预期收入按年增长11%，经调整净 利润按年增长33%至3.54亿元。该行将其目标价由21.9港元上调至22.4港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1: 卓胜微 (300782 CH) - The company has shifted from profit to loss in 1H25, with revenue in 2Q25 at RMB 948 million, down 13% year-on-year, and losses of RMB 101 million and RMB 147 million for 2Q25 and 1H25 respectively [1] - Management expects cost pressure to approach its peak as production capacity increases, with signs of cost reduction and improved efficiency emerging [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to RMB 4.17 billion and RMB 5.17 billion respectively, with EPS estimates adjusted to RMB 0.05 and RMB 1.15 [1] Group 2: 哔哩哔哩 (BILI US) - The company reported 2Q25 revenue of RMB 7.3 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit of RMB 560 million, slightly above expectations [2] - Game revenue surged 60% year-on-year driven by the success of "三谋", while advertising revenue also grew by 20% due to increased traffic and AI technology applications [2] - The target price has been raised to USD 32, reflecting a potential upside of 34.7% [3] Group 3: 途虎 (9690 HK) - The company’s performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue growth driven by improved market share and profit margins [6] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 25, indicating a potential upside of 31.2% [6] - The company is expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth and stable profit margins despite industry uncertainties [6] Group 4: 先声药业 (2096 HK) - The company achieved a 15% revenue growth and a 21% increase in adjusted net profit in 1H25, driven by a 26% growth in innovative drug revenue [7][8] - Management has updated guidance for 2025-2027, expecting over 15% growth in revenue and adjusted net profit [8] - The target price has been raised to HKD 16.40, reflecting a positive outlook on the company’s growth trajectory [8] Group 5: 恒瑞医药 (1276 HK) - The company reported a 16% revenue growth in 1H25, with innovative drug sales growing over 25% [9][10] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth approximately RMB 10-20 billion, contingent on achieving specific sales growth targets [9] - The target price has been set at HKD 70.40, indicating a potential downside of 9.4% [10] Group 6: 速腾聚创 (2498 HK) - The company’s laser radar sales increased over sixfold year-on-year in 2Q25, with expectations for peak deliveries in the second half of the year [11][12] - The gross margin for the robot business reached 41.5%, contributing to an overall gross margin increase to 27.7% [12] - The target price is maintained at HKD 41.89, reflecting confidence in the company’s growth potential [12] Group 7: 亿纬锂能 (300014 CH) - The company’s battery shipments reached 50 GWh in the first half of 2025, a 46% year-on-year increase, with revenue growing 30% to RMB 28.2 billion [13][14] - Focus is on improving profitability in the energy storage segment, with expectations for recovery in margins [13] - The target price is set at RMB 56.51, indicating a potential upside of 16.5% [14] Group 8: 名创优品 (9896 HK) - The company’s revenue grew 21.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a 23.1% increase in 2Q25, exceeding previous guidance [15][16] - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance to over 25% [16] - The target price has been increased to HKD 48.70, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% [16] Group 9: 李宁 (2331 HK) - The company reported a 3.3% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with net profit declining 11% year-on-year [17][18] - Management maintains a cautious outlook for the third quarter, citing challenges in the operating environment [17] - The target price is set at HKD 16.28, reflecting a potential downside of 10.1% [18] Group 10: 友邦保险 (1299 HK) - The new business value grew 14% year-on-year, primarily driven by contributions from Hong Kong and Thailand [19][20] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate of 40% in new business value from new regions between 2025 and 2030 [19] - The target price is maintained at HKD 84, indicating a potential upside of 14.4% [20] Group 11: 恒基地产 (12 HK) - The company’s revenue fell 18.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with core net profit down 44.4% [21][22] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 25.90, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company’s performance [22] - The rental income remained stable, with a slight decline of 2.8% [22] Group 12: 越秀服务 (6626 HK) - The company’s revenue remained stable with a 0.1% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 13.7% [23][24] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 50% [23] - The target price has been slightly adjusted to HKD 4.20, indicating a potential upside of 38.2% [24] Group 13: 中国电力 (2380 HK) - The company’s profit increased by 0.7% year-on-year, outperforming market expectations [25][26] - The company plans to adjust its installation targets for wind and solar power due to new policies [25] - The target price has been slightly lowered to HKD 3.75, maintaining a buy rating [26]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a recovery in same-store sales and anticipates an improvement in gross margin in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company maintains a "buy" rating, forecasting revenues of 16.3 billion, 18.1 billion, and 20.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 10.8%, 10.7%, and 10.3% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 774 million, 972 million, and 1.123 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 24.0%, 25.6%, and 15.5% respectively [1] - For the first half of 2025, revenue reached 7.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, with a gross profit of 1.982 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Operational Metrics - The number of stores increased to 7,205 in the first half of 2025, with a net addition of 331 stores, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [2] - Average revenue per store decreased by 4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, an improvement from a 10% decline in 2024 [2] - The number of transaction users reached 26.5 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [2] Group 3: Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.2%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the gross margin of tires and chassis components [2] - Despite increased sales volumes in chassis components and repair services, consumer preference shifted towards more cost-effective products, leading to lower average transaction values [2] - Adjusted sales expense ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while operational and support expenses decreased by 0.3 percentage points [2]