食品饮 2026 年 03 月 01 日 时代小说书 风险提示： 食品安全问题， 经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 《25Q4 白酒报表出清 食品分化改善- 食品饮料 2025 年报业绩前瞻》 2026/02/09 《春节茅台旺销验证观点 重申白酒进入战 略布局期——食品饮料行业周报 20260202-20260206》 2026/02/08 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示 投资分析意见：我们看好食品饮料板块 2026 年投资机会，核心方向是顺周期的白酒和餐饮供应 O 键，核心指标看 CPI。白酒板块维持判断，春节白酒行业整体好于预期，我们认为茅台价格一季度 筑底，行业迎本轮周期拐点，春节后茅台批价将保持坚挺。行业未来的趋势是缩量集中，从大鱼 吃小鱼到大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector for 2026, particularly focusing on cyclical opportunities in the liquor and restaurant supply chain [2][6]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is expected to see a recovery, with Moutai prices stabilizing in the first quarter, indicating a turning point in the current cycle. The report anticipates a concentration trend in the industry, favoring leading companies capable of national expansion and those with regional consolidation potential [2][6]. - The report highlights a structural improvement in the mass food sub-sector, with competition shifting from price to quality, and a gradual balance in supply and demand. It predicts a sequential improvement in food CPI [2][6][8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - As of March 1, Moutai's bottle price is 1650 RMB, and the case price is 1680 RMB, remaining stable post-Spring Festival. The overall sales volume for the liquor industry during the Spring Festival is expected to decline by 10%-20% year-on-year, slightly better than market expectations [7]. - The report notes significant differentiation and concentration in the market, with high-end liquor performing exceptionally well. Moutai's sales volume is projected to increase by over 30% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 5%-10% increase [7]. - The industry is entering a significant destocking phase, with leading brands' inventory levels notably lower than the previous year. The report concludes that the fundamentals for top brands (Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu) have bottomed out [7]. Mass Food Sector - The mass food sub-sector is showing structural improvements, with companies expected to recover due to their cyclical attributes and low valuations. Key recommendations include companies in the restaurant supply chain, such as Anjijia Food, Qianhe Flavoring, and Tianwei Food [8][9]. - The dairy industry is anticipated to see further optimization in supply and demand dynamics, with long-term growth potential in deep-processed products and low-temperature milk. Recommended companies include Yili and New Dairy [9]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.54% last week, while the liquor segment fell by 2.26%. The report ranks the food and beverage sector 29th among 31 sub-sectors [5][28]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of various sub-sectors, indicating that the liquor sector has faced significant challenges, with white liquor underperforming the market by 5.06 percentage points [28].

通过将产品进行高端化升级，珠江啤酒（002461）(002461.SZ)在销量微增之时，利润大幅增长。 2月25日晚间，珠江啤酒发布业绩快报。公司2025年营业收入达58.78亿元，同比增长2.56%；归母净利润9.03亿 元，同比增长11.42%；扣非净利润8.32亿元，同比增长9.25%，均创下历史新高。 珠江啤酒表示，2025年，公司产品结构优化升级，市场开拓稳中有进，渠道建设创新发力，品牌声量持续放大， 管理效能不断提升，持续推动企业高质量发展走深走实。 公告中，珠江啤酒还介绍，2025年，公司实现啤酒销量146.24万吨，同比增长1.58%。 一位啤酒行业业内人士向长江商报记者表示，我国高端啤酒市场占比已突破40%，成为行业利润的主要来源。 产品结构优化升级 中国啤酒行业已进入平稳发展阶段，啤酒行业竞争激烈，但啤酒消费结构性升级存在发展空间。当前，珠江啤酒 正顺应高端啤酒发展趋势，促进公司产品高端化升级。 数据显示，2025年1月至12月，中国规模以上企业啤酒产量3536万千升，同比下降1.1%。 在此行业背景下，珠江啤酒业绩逆势上扬。 2026年2月25日晚间，珠江啤酒发布业绩快报，公司2025年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that short-term beer consumption is expected to improve due to the gradual recovery of the dining sector and moderate inflation expectations, while long-term trends indicate a stable beer consumption volume supported by core consumer demographics and a shift towards premiumization [1][3] - Major beer companies are actively promoting festive marketing strategies for the 2026 Spring Festival, focusing on cultural themes and digital engagement to enhance brand competitiveness [1] - Inventory management among leading beer companies remains strong, with positive growth in offline market stocking for the Spring Festival, showing a 5.7% year-on-year increase in GMV during the stocking period [1] Group 2 - The beer sector has experienced weak sales performance in 2024, primarily due to slow recovery in consumption and a decline in the contribution rate from on-premise channels, while non-on-premise channels are becoming the main growth drivers [2] - The restaurant market is showing signs of recovery, with a higher opening rate than closing rate, which is expected to provide solid sales support for beer consumption, particularly in lower-tier markets [3] - There is significant potential for upgrading the beer consumption structure in China, with a long-term trend towards premiumization, as evidenced by the comparison of market shares of mid-to-high-end beers in China versus the US and Japan [3]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：棱镜 文 | 温世君编辑 | 孙春芳 出品 | 棱镜·腾讯小满工作室 硬木书桌、紫砂茶具，墙上一幅装裱妥当的"舍得"，这是大江南北老板们的办公室里，常见的"装置艺 术"。 在那个遍地机遇的时代，"舍得"曾是商界备受追捧的座右铭：舍小谋大，进退有据。或者说，这两个字 也是时代的得利者们跨越阶层的勋章，是在酒桌酩酊半醉半醒，口吐"真言"时，最常被洞察的人生真 谛。 即便如此，郭广昌仍是最理解"舍得"二字的资本大佬。不仅仅因为他是舍得酒的老板。 2026年1月底，舍得酒业（600702.SH）间接控股股东、也是复星系旗下六大A股上市公司之一的豫园股 份（600655.SH）发布业绩预告：2025年归母净利润预计亏损48亿元。这家上交所"老八股"，迎来1992 年上市以来首次年度亏损。 在官方解释中，豫园股份的亏损源于地产下行与消费疲软的双重压力。但在当下，选择一次性大举计提 资产减值、推进库存去化，也颇具复星系一贯"舍"的风格：用阵痛，换取腾挪的生存空间。 复星系一切的开端，也是从34年前的一次"舍"开始：1992年，25岁的郭广昌从复 ...

经过筹备A股上市一年并历经多期辅导后，海尔集团旗下的工业互联网独角兽——卡奥斯物联科技股份有限公司(下 称"卡奥斯")于2026年1月底正式"弃A转港"，向港交所递交了招股说明书。 依托海尔四十年的制造经验与大规模定制模式，卡奥斯打造了知名的COSMOPlat工业互联网平台。而在全球制造业加 速数智化升级的今天，这家拥有深厚制造基因的科技巨头，究竟能否通过资本市场的赋能，在工业AI时代确立其领先 地位？ BaaS引擎驱动的数智化跃迁 智通财经APP了解到，卡奥斯的底层竞争力并非源于实验室的纯粹算法，而是植根于海尔集团长达四十年的智能制造 实践与大规模定制经验。 其中，卡奥斯自主研发的COSMOPlat工业互联网平台，被公司定义为端云一体的数智化解决方案，通过BaaS(最佳业 务实践即服务)引擎，将工业知识、经验模型化与软件化。 从技术架构上看，卡奥斯搭建了从底层的物联感知的边缘计算，到中层的工业操作系统与工业大脑，再到上层的工业 智能软件的完整全栈能力。这种架构使其在捕捉2024年中国基于平台的工业数据智能解决方案市场中，以1.2%的份额 位居行业第一。 而与此同时，这种领先地位伴随着市场极度分散的现实，前三 ...

Macro Insights - The report identifies three historical "great migrations" of Chinese household wealth, with the third migration starting in 2023, indicating a shift in asset allocation trends[3] - The first migration (1998-2018) saw a significant flow of deposits into real estate due to housing market reforms, establishing real estate as a core asset class[4] - The second migration (2018-2023) involved a return to deposits as real estate values declined and risk aversion increased among residents[5] - The third migration reflects a transition to a "deposit+" era, where residents are diversifying into financial products beyond traditional deposits due to lower interest rates and improved returns in bond and equity markets[6] Market Strategy - Foreign capital continues to flow into the market, with a net inflow of $3.7 million in foreign investment as of February 11, 2026, and a significant increase in public fund issuance, reaching 43.63 billion yuan[9] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.1 trillion yuan, while the proportion of stocks rising increased to 47.6%[8] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 44.18 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards active management strategies[9] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical market for anticoagulants is projected to grow from $52.9 billion in 2023 to over $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease rates[13] - The heavy-duty truck market in China is expected to see sales of 760,000 units in 2026, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while January 2026 saw a 46% increase in domestic heavy-duty truck sales compared to the previous year[16][17] - The aviation sector is experiencing a resurgence, with a 6% increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival period, and ticket prices are expected to rise by 3-4% year-on-year due to increased demand[30][32]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

Core Insights - The articles highlight the integration of digitalization and intelligent manufacturing in various companies in the Quwei district, showcasing how these advancements contribute to production efficiency and quality during the Spring Festival season [1][3][5][7][9]. Group 1: Qingdao Beer (青啤) - Qingdao Beer operates a digital factory that combines traditional brewing with modern technology, ensuring precise control over the brewing process, which enhances both the classic taste and production efficiency [1]. - The digital factory exemplifies the blend of cultural heritage and innovative manufacturing, maintaining the essence of local traditions while embracing smart manufacturing [1]. Group 2: Haotai Machinery (浩泰) - Haotai Machinery emphasizes its transition from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing, achieving a 30% increase in efficiency through a fully integrated digital management platform [5]. - The company maintains continuous production during the Spring Festival, showcasing a commitment to quality and productivity, which is essential for the high-demand season [3][5]. - The focus on innovation and digitalization has solidified Haotai's position in the market, contributing to the high-quality development of the Quwei industry [3][5]. Group 3: Jingke Robotics (敬科) - Jingke Robotics has established itself as an industry leader since its inception in 2021, developing the first domestically produced flexible production line in the CNC processing sector [9]. - The company integrates advanced technology with production processes, enhancing efficiency and quality while maintaining a festive atmosphere during the Spring Festival [7][9]. - Looking ahead, Jingke aims to deepen the integration of technology and application scenarios, contributing to the intelligent upgrade of various industries in China [9]. Group 4: Workforce Commitment - Workers in these companies exemplify dedication and responsibility, contributing to the reputation of "Quwei Manufacturing" through their hard work and commitment to quality [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the launch of "Wine Price Insider" by Sina Finance, which aims to provide insights into the real market prices of well-known liquor brands [1] - The total box office for the 2026 Spring Festival exceeded 5 billion yuan, with the film "Fast and Furious 3" leading at 2.548 billion yuan [1] - Qingdao, recognized as a "City of Movies," is actively participating in the film industry, with local products like Qingdao Beer being featured in films, potentially benefiting local businesses through brand exposure and consumer engagement [1] Group 2 - As of February 23, 2026, the latest stock price for Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. (00168.HK) was 51.60 HKD, reflecting a daily increase of 1.28%, with a weekly fluctuation of 0.29% and an amplitude of 1.85% [1] - The alcoholic beverage sector in Hong Kong rose by 1.22% during the same period, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.70% [1] - In February 2026, 23 institutions covered Qingdao Beer Co., with 91% giving buy or hold ratings, and the average target price set at 67.79 HKD, indicating a positive outlook on the company's fundamentals [1]