今日早参 2026 年 2 月 25 日 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业联席首席研究 员 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 基础化工：美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 2026 年 2 月 18 日，特朗普政府援引《国防生产法》发布行政令，正式将磷 元素与草甘膦除草剂列为美国战略资源，以保障国内供应链安全。全球近几 年 80%的磷资源下游用于磷肥，草甘膦由于转基因抗性种子需求成为全球第 一大除草剂，二者是全球农资的核心环节。据 USGS，2025 年美国磷矿石 进口依存度 16%，主要来自秘鲁及摩洛哥。美国草甘膦本土产能充足，但考 虑厂商到对欧洲及南美的供应，仍需进口中国产草甘膦。相对而言，中国磷 矿石自给率较高，而草甘膦净出口且产能略过剩。我们认为，磷系农资列入 战略物资因美国对二者供应稳定性的强调，短期在粮价低迷需求不振背景 ...

智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，燃气轮机因更高效率、更低度电成本覆盖适配区域级主用调 峰与大型集群基荷供电。海外重燃主机厂扩产节奏克制，供需硬缺口将长期延续，核心原因在于头部厂 商扩产周期(3-5年)滞后于AIDC、调峰等需求爆发。从三大主机厂看，GEV、西门子能源、三菱重工在 手订单饱满，排产均至2029年。受益于天然气作为清洁能源占比提升、海外工业矿山离网用电需求增 长、AIDC用电需求爆发等因素，看好燃气轮机+燃气内燃机全产业链的景气度。 财通证券主要观点如下： 相关标的 燃气内燃机：潍柴动力(000338.SZ,02338)；船用发动机：中国动力(600482.SH)、潍柴重机 (000880.SZ)；燃气轮机：出海北美数据中心供电+热管理一体化解决方案杰瑞股份(002353.SZ)；自主可 控：东方电气(600875.SH,01072)；核心零部件：应流股份(603308.SH)、豪迈科技(002595.SZ)、万泽股 份(000534.SZ)、联德股份(605060.SH)；余热锅炉联合循环(HRSG)：博盈特焊(001276.SZ)、西子节能 (002534.SZ)等。 风险提示 技术迭 ...

春节期间燃机板块数据更新：25Q4订单超预期，龙头扩产意愿明确，国内叶片、铸件、整机环节估值有望继 续上修【中信建投电新/机械/汽车】 1、全球燃机订单数据跟踪： 2、接下来板块怎么看？ 1）春节期间GEV、西门子小幅上涨，估值来到28年30x以上，根据节前海外燃机龙头财报跟踪，西门子、三菱等 整机企业已传递出明显的扩产意向，燃机订单取决于整机产能的上限，#我们判断接下来的扩产落地将会带来燃机 板块业绩/估值的进一步上修； 2）整机扩产的核心取决于叶片产能，#叶片估值中枢远高于整机。 我们同样对标美股GEV/HWM（叶片龙头）发现，两者28年PE分别30x/42x，即使看到29/30年，HWM估值也在 38/35x。 考虑海外叶片企业资本开支26年开始放缓，燃机扩产预期下国内叶片环节仍将迎来量利双升。 1）根据McCoy Power Report数据，2025年全球功率10Mwe以上燃气轮机市场规模达到99.9GW（yoy+72%），#高于 此前华尔街预期10%（预期88-90GW）； 2）其中，25Q4订单预计33.9GW（yo 春节期间燃机板块数据更新：25Q4订单超预期，龙头扩产意愿明确，国内叶片、铸件 ...

财通证券（601108）发布研报称，海外重燃主机厂扩产节奏克制，供需硬缺口将长期延续。该行估计 2025年全球重燃意向订单已超80GW，而实际可交付产能仅约50GW，三菱重工测算GTCC联合循环重燃 市场需求或接近100GW，供需矛盾显著。核心原因在于头部厂商扩产周期(3-5年)滞后于AIDC、调峰等 需求爆发。从三大主机厂看，GEV、西门子能源、三菱重工在手订单饱满，排产均至2029年。 东方电气（600875）(01072)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.82%，报35.34港元，成交额3.55亿港元。 美银证券此前表示，东方电气燃气轮机出口有潜在扩张空间。该行预测，公司2025至2027年净利润的年 复合增长率将达13%，受惠于中国电力资本开支上升周期。此外，设备订单随平均售价回升进行销售确 认，将驱动公司净利润稳步增长。 ...

财通证券发布研报称，海外重燃主机厂扩产节奏克制，供需硬缺口将长期延续。该行估计2025年全球重 燃意向订单已超80GW，而实际可交付产能仅约 50GW，三菱重工测算GTCC联合循环重燃市场需求或 接近100GW，供需矛盾显著。核心原因在于头部厂商扩产周期(3-5年)滞后于AIDC、调峰等需求爆发。 从三大主机厂看，GEV、西门子能源、三菱重工在手订单饱满，排产均至2029年。 智通财经APP获悉，东方电气(01072)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.82%，报35.34港元，成交额3.55亿港元。 美银证券此前表示，东方电气燃气轮机出口有潜在扩张空间。该行预测，公司2025至2027年净利润的年 复合增长率将达13%，受惠于中国电力资本开支上升周期。此外，设备订单随平均售价回升进行销售确 认，将驱动公司净利润稳步增长。 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report discusses how AI deflation and balance sheet reduction could reshape asset pricing logic, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [1][6][7] - It highlights the potential impact of reducing the Fed's balance sheet on dollar asset prices and the importance of maintaining central bank independence [1][6][7] Group 2: Company Analysis - Huahong Semiconductor (688347.SH) - Huahong is projected to achieve revenues of 183.83 billion, 246.57 billion, and 284.07 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of 6.74 billion, 7.78 billion, and 11.29 billion CNY respectively [2][12] - The company is positioned as a leader in mature process semiconductor manufacturing, benefiting from the global semiconductor industry's recovery [12][13] - Huahong's expansion plans include the ramp-up of FAB9 and the integration of FAB5, which is expected to enhance future growth potential [12][14] Group 3: Company Analysis - Valiant Bio (9887.HK) - Valiant Bio focuses on three core technology platforms targeting oncology and autoimmune diseases, with significant clinical trials underway [3][16] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 175.0 million, 196.0 million, and 200.8 million HKD, with a projected increase in profitability as clinical data catalysts emerge [3][16][17] Group 4: Company Analysis - Ningbo Huaxiang (002048.SZ) - Ningbo Huaxiang is expected to see net profits of 5.19 billion, 16.10 billion, and 17.56 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a target market value of 402.39 billion CNY by 2026 [4][18] - The company is expanding into the humanoid robot sector and is anticipated to improve profitability following the divestment of European assets [18][19] Group 5: Industry Insights - Hotel and Catering - The report indicates a significant increase in travel and service consumption during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic tourism expected to reach 520 million trips, a 3.8% increase year-on-year [25][26] - The catering sector is benefiting from increased customer flow, particularly in first-tier cities, with notable growth in restaurant bookings and sales during the holiday period [26][27] Group 6: Industry Insights - Gas Turbine - The gas turbine industry is experiencing robust demand, with Siemens Energy reporting record order volumes and plans to increase production capacity significantly by 2027 [29][30][31] - Major companies like GE and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are also reporting substantial order growth, indicating a strong market outlook for gas turbines [30][31][32] Group 7: Industry Insights - Tooling Industry - The report highlights a rapid increase in tungsten carbide prices, benefiting leading domestic tooling companies amid supply constraints and rising demand in high-value sectors [35][36][37] - The Chinese government's export controls on tungsten resources are expected to further enhance the competitive position of domestic tooling manufacturers [35][37]

[Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 20 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 机械设备 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 王锐 机械行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080006 邮 箱：wangrui1@cindasc.com [Table_Author] 韩冰 机械行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523100001 邮 箱：hanbing1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 1 月挖机销量高增，燃气轮机需求景气 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 20 日 1 月挖机销量高增，燃气轮机需求景气 【】【】 机械设备[Table_Industry] 本期内容提要: 1）日联科技 公司是国内领先的工业 X 射线智能检测设备及核心部件供应商，在 核心部件、AI 软件、检测设备等方面 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eaton Corporation (NYSE:ETN) is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity, with significant price target increases from major financial institutions and positive performance indicators [2][5]. Company Performance - Eaton Corporation's shares have increased by 25.9% over the past year and by 18.9% year-to-date [2]. - The company reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, which contributed to the positive outlook [2]. - The firm's backlog indicates potential for even stronger results in 2026 [2]. Analyst Ratings - RBC Capital raised Eaton's share price target to $407 from $399 while maintaining an Outperform rating [2]. - Morgan Stanley increased its price target to $425 from $405 and kept an Overweight rating, citing that fourth-quarter orders exceeded expectations [2]. Market Commentary - Jim Cramer linked Eaton Corporation's performance to that of electrical equipment provider Vertiv, suggesting continued investment interest [2][3]. - Cramer emphasized the attractiveness of Eaton's shares in a recent tweet, indicating they are still worth buying [3].

Core Viewpoint - The gas turbine industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the increasing power demand from AI applications, particularly in the North American market [2][6]. Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - The global demand for gas turbines is expected to rise, with a forecasted additional requirement of 31GW of power for AI data centers in the U.S. over the next five years [6]. - The electricity consumption of global data centers is projected to increase from 415TWh in 2024 to 945TWh by 2030, with the U.S. accounting for 45% of this demand [6]. - The North American market is focusing on traditional power generation equipment such as gas turbines, gas internal combustion engines, and diesel generators to meet the surging electricity needs [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Companies like Jerry Holdings and Yingliu Technology have seen their stock prices soar, with Jerry Holdings' stock increasing by 96% in 2025 and an additional 38.94% in the first two months of this year [5]. - Yingliu Technology's stock has risen over 50% this year, while Dongfang Electric's stock has increased by more than 30% [5]. - Jerry Holdings has secured four contracts in North America since November 2025, with a total contract value of approximately 34 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Advantages of Gas Turbines - Gas turbines are favored for their quick startup, easy deployment, stable power generation, energy efficiency, low maintenance, and cost-effectiveness, making them an optimal choice for AI data center power supply [7]. - The efficiency of gas turbine combined cycles can exceed 60%, and they have the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - The global gas turbine sales are expected to increase, with the number of MW orders projected to rise from 58GW in 2024 to 71GW in 2025, and the number of units ordered expected to grow from 471 to 964 [8]. - Major manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have their order deliveries scheduled until 2029, indicating strong future demand [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the commercial operation cycle of modified aviation fuel engines is approximately 45 days, with a quick deployment process that allows for rapid start-up and operation, making it a favorable choice for data center power supply [1] - The demand for modified aviation fuel engines is increasing, with companies like Siemens and Baker Hughes significantly expanding production, and FTAI planning to convert CFM56 engines into 25MW turbines, aiming for an annual production of over 100 units starting in 2026 [1] - Aviation Power, as the only domestic engine manufacturer, can convert retired engines into 20-30MW modified engines, potentially generating over 10 billion in value if 100 engines are modified, benefiting not only Aviation Power but also the entire aviation industry chain [1] Group 2 - The combination of domestic computing power and modified aviation fuel engines exemplifies self-sufficiency, with a focus on exporting complete systems to regions like Southeast Asia and the Middle East, addressing global electricity shortages [2] - As of February 13, 2026, the CSI Defense Index has seen a 0.27% increase, with significant gains in stocks such as Aviation Power (10.01%) and Aviation Materials (7.92%), indicating strong market performance [2] - The CSI Defense Index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the defense industry, including those providing equipment to the armed forces or having contracts with the military [2][3]