投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|航运策略⽇报 2026-02-26 EMC线上跟随调降至2530美元/FEU，美伊 开启第三轮间接谈判 今日市场以降价预期为主导。现货端3月MSK再度下调降价策略激 进，而PA或跌幅稍缓，OCEAN运价较2月下旬小幅抬升100美元/FEU左 右，报价出现分化，航运公司仍在其他航线试图挺价。3月下半月仍 面临运力回升、船司喊涨等波动风险，关注光伏等产品抢运实际兑现 节奏，而市场对5-6月运价预期仍相对近月更乐观。明日需关注美伊 第三轮间接谈判对地缘情绪影响；后续仍需观察船司是否有新的宣涨 函及现货市场波动方向。 昨日MSK开舱3月第二周运价，环比调降100美元/FEU；叠加昨日O OCL线上运价调降，带动市场交易现货运价涨价难兑现，今日市场以 降价预期为主导。ONE、YML3月上半月或呈现一定缓跌迹象。04合约 淡季预期主导，跌幅高于远月合约。04主力合约收于1236点，跌5. 13%，持仓总量增超800手；05合约收于1414.8点，跌2.7%，持仓量共 395手；06合约收于1621.1点跌3.3%，持仓量小幅增仓287手，位于1. 66万手；0 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-26 马士基3月第二周价格下调，关注其他船司3月份价格跟随情 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK11报价1210/1920、WEEK12周价格1150/1820；HPL3月份上半月 船期报价1535/2535 ，3月下半月船期报价1935/3135. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 3月份上半月船期报价1400/2340；ONE 3月上半月船期报价1940/3035，3月下半月 1940/3035；HMM 上海-鹿特丹 3月份上半月船期报价1783/3136。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹3月份上半月船期报价1459/2593，3月份下半月船期报价2359/3193；EMC 3月 上半月船期报价1665/2530；OOCL 3月份上半月船期报价介于2380-2430. 地缘端：据以色列时报，监测开源飞行追踪数据的分析人士称，美军已开始向中东调动另外六架F-22隐形战斗机， 预计这六架F-22将部署在以色列空军一处基地，昨日已有另外11架F-22战机在那里降落。这六架F-22当天早些时 候从美国起飞，与随行加 ...

2月25日，集运指数(欧线)期货大幅下跌，截至发稿主力合约报1285.6点，跌幅达4.24%。 【消息面汇总】 2月3日，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。然而本应首次实现复航红海 的"Maersk Detroit"号，在实际执行中转向南下绕行非洲好望角。 特朗普签署行政命令，自美国东部时间2月24日起，对进口到美国的商品征收10%的从价进口关税，为期150天；后续又在其社交平台"真实社 交"上发文称，将把对全球商品加征10%进口关税的税率水平提高至15%，抬升贸易成本。 国内集运现货运价方面，周一SCFIS欧线指数为1573.51点，周环比下跌2.10%，而春节期间双周累计下跌5.09%，船司空班停航使得运价整体跌幅 相对温和。 机构观点 申银万国期货：强预期推动市场放量上涨，IEEPA关税被最高法院裁定违法，美国海关正式官宣最新122关税税率10%，短期出现关税差额空档 期，对于集运市场来说，可能会导致亚美航线出口货量的激增，同时叠加市场对于3月节后光伏等产品抢出口存有相对乐观预期，航线联动效应叠 加可能高于往年季节性的货量表现带动节后预期乐观。与 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-25 3月上半月运价逐步修正，关注马士基3月第二周开价情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK11报价1210/1920（其中上海-伦敦基本港WEEK11周报价涨至 1320/2100）；HPL3月份上半月船期报价1935/2535 ，3月下半月船期报价1935/3135. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 3月份上半月船期报价1400/2340；ONE 3月上半月船期报价1940/3035，3月下半月 1940/3035；HMM 上海-鹿特丹 3月份上半月船期报价1783/3136。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹3月份上半月船期报价1459/2593，3月份下半月船期报价2159/2793；EMC 3月 上半月船期报价2065/3130；OOCL 3月份船期报价1830/3130。 地缘端：据福克斯新闻：特朗普表示，伊朗尚未同意放弃核武器。②白宫就伊朗问题表态称，特朗普的首要选择 始终是通过外交途径解决问题，但在必要时也会准备动用致命武力。③据CBS：特朗普对针对伊朗有限的军事选 ...

最新观点 集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/25 上一交易日基 差 上上一交易 日基差 环比变化 -135.23 252.91 388.14 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 集运欧线期货主力合约基差走势 数据来源：Wind，Clarksons，申万期货研究所 声明： 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 集运欧线：EC上涨6.84%。强预期推动市场放量上涨，IEEPA关税被最高法院裁定违法，美国海关正式官宣最新 122关税税率10%，短期出现关税差额空档期，对于集运市场来说，可能会导致亚美航线出口货量的激增，同时 叠加市场对于3月节后光伏等产品抢出口存有相对乐观预期，航线联动效应叠加可能高于往年季节性的货量表 现带动节后预期乐观。与此同时，船司挺价意愿增强，MSC和CMA的3月上半月均较2月底大柜报价上涨200美 元，MSK则在3月第一周维持报价不变，现货运价层面未见进一步下降趋势也使得预期表现强于现实。从传统的 季节性来看，尤其今年春节较晚，3月是节后货量最 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 高聪 17000+TEU船舶： 2026年剩余月份交付19.29万TEU（8艘），2027年交付86.28万TEU（40艘），2028 年交付160.3万TEU（80艘），2029年交付126.15万TEU（77艘）．总体来看，2026年超大型船舶交付压 力相对较小，2027年、2028年以及2029年17000+TEU船舶年度交付量均超过40艘。2026年上半年（1-6 月）交付17000+TEU以上船舶仅4艘。 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK11报价1210/1920（其中上海-伦敦基本港WEEK11周报价 涨至1320/2100）；HPL3月份上半月船期报价1935/2535 ，3月下半月船期报价1935/3135． MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 3月份上半月船期报价1400/2340；ONE 3月上半月船期报价1940/3035，3 月下半月1940/3035；HMM 上海-鹿特丹 3月份上半月船期报价1783/3136。 Ocean ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to whether the shipping companies' price - holding measures are implemented after the holiday. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm and the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to monitor whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be firmer than in normal years. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. Shipping companies usually issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. As of now, it is still unclear whether the price increase in March will succeed. If the price increase is successful in early March, the valuation bottom of the EC2604 contract may rise. The long - term contracts face intense speculation on the resumption time, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the shipping capacity in the first half of the year will be relatively controllable, and higher freight rates can be expected. Investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of February 12, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 54,481.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 42,518.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1258.90, 1566.10, 1632.00, 1131.10, and 1425.40 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1155.66 points [8]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with capacities of 366,600 TEU, 259,800 TEU, and 188,300 TEU in Weeks 7, 8, and 9 respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, with capacities of 158,300 TEU, 365,200 TEU, 304,700 TEU, 320,400 TEU, and 293,500 TEU in Weeks 10 - 14 respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity is 274,700 TEU, with capacities of 295,500 TEU, 294,400 TEU, 263,500 TEU, and 245,400 TEU in Weeks 15 - 18 respectively. There are 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA Alliance, 6 by the PA Alliance, and 1 by the Gemini Alliance), 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [4]. IV. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management indicates that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea route. It may take 3 - 5 months from the attempt to full resumption. Multiple conditions need to be met for the resumption of the Red Sea route, including industry association assessment, insurance premium reduction, customer recognition of safety, and internal consensus within the alliance. Currently, the detour has become the new normal for the customer supply chain, and COSCO is cautious about returning to the Red Sea. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will be structurally adjusted to transit through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, Maersk will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in the subsequent stage to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [7]. V. Demand and European Economy No specific content related to demand and European economy is provided in the given text other than the figures mentioned in the catalog.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, and it is significantly affected by pre - holiday funds. After the holiday, it will fluctuate widely under the influence of price - increase announcements, rush - shipping expectations, and off - season expectations [3][27] - For far - month contracts, it is difficult to determine the valuation of peak - season contracts, and shipping companies have a large margin for price adjustment. It is recommended to operate cautiously. The 10 contract is moderately high, and the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained [3][27] - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is mainly shorting the 09 contract and buying the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is already relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the off - season switching point, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3][27] - Due to frequent pre - Spring - Festival fund - closing operations, the market is expected to be highly volatile, and cautious operation is recommended this week [3][27] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of contracts such as EC2604 (1258.9, +6.88%), EC2605 (1304.0, +2.25%), EC2606 (1566.1, +4.34%) etc. were reported. The base spreads and the changes in trading volume and open interest were also provided [2][26] - **Month - to - Month Price Differences**: The month - to - month price differences between contracts (e.g., EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, EC2606 - 2610) and their daily and weekly changes were presented [2][26] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **European Line Spot**: In Week 7, the opening prices of shipping companies such as MSK (1950, - 100 MoM), PA (around 2000), MSC (2140), OA (2300) US dollars were reported, with a central price of 2130 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. From Week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price remained at 1950 US dollars, and other shipping companies' quotes were mostly unchanged. Last week, MSC led a price - increase announcement, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL, with the European line price expected to rise to 3000 - 3100 US dollars. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 10 was 1950 US dollars, unchanged from the previous period [4][28] - **Spot Index Changes**: The European line spot index (1657.94 points on 2026/2/9, - 7.49% MoM) and the SCFI index (1403 US dollars/TEU on 2026/2/6, - 1.06% MoM) were reported [2][26] 3.3 Relevant News - Trump stated on February 12 that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious." He also mentioned that he had a "very good" meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and whether an agreement is reached "ultimately depends on him." He emphasized that the agreement must be "very fair and very good" [5][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate is fluctuating. With the approaching of the Spring Festival and the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the market may fluctuate under the background of decreasing positions. Attention should be paid to the MSK online cabin opening and the actual loading situation of shipping companies during the holiday, as well as the resumption of navigation in the Suez Canal and the changes in the Middle East situation, and the support of the off - season rush shipment of products such as photovoltaics to the market. The market is expected to be volatile and the positions on the disk may continue to decrease [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Freight and Contract Volume - Price - **Futures Contract Data**: The EC2604 contract reached a maximum of 1260 points during the session, with a daily reduction of over 2000 lots, and closed at 1258.9 points, up 6.4%. The EC2606 contract closed at 1566.1 points, up 4.78%. Other contracts also rose. Specific data of each contract such as closing price, settlement price, increase or decrease, trading volume, and open interest are provided in the table [2][8] - **Spot Freight Data**: The comprehensive index of SCFI is 1266.6 points. The Nordic route of SCFIS is 1657.94 dollars/TEU (-7.5%), and the US - West route is 1155.66 dollars/FEU (+4.9%) [9] Spot Quotation - **European Line Spot Freight**: OOCL's March online freight rate reached 3130 dollars/FEU, and other shipping companies' rates remained generally unchanged. MSK's March online freight rate increased slightly. Different shipping companies' freight rates for different routes and time periods are provided, such as GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC&PA [2][3] European Line Spot Freight Seasonal Trend - Not provided in the given content

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钉毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 论 逻辑: 从现货运价端来看,马士基已发布 3 月第一周欧洲航线运价,报价维持 2000 美元，维持 2 月水平,船司此前 提出的 3 月涨价预期并未兑现。马士基延续稳健务实的定价策略,行业内其余船司及航运联盟大概率初期同步跟进 该定价水平;若春节后货量复苏力度偏弱,现货运价存在进一步下调可能,整体运行节奏或与 2025年同期相仿。 本周春节前最后一个交易周,新挂牌合约成交活跃度偏低。后续需重点关注其他船司 3 月运价的跟进情况、节后货 量修复进度,以及前期港口拥堵所引发的运力被动空班变动。短期盘面维持区间震荡格局。 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/2/12 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...