·美银：澳储行通胀预测失误或将促使其加息 ·德商银行：沃勒投反对票意在角逐美联储主席之位 ·世界黄金协会：全球黄金ETF增持空间仍大 ·日美联合支撑日元概率不大且成效存疑 ·韩元即将迎来13年来最长的连续上涨 ·印度卢比再创历史新低 ·Optimal Economics：澳储行今年或将完全逆转2025年的降息举措 【机构分析】 ·德国商业银行经济学家指出，美联储理事沃勒对美联储维持利率不变的决定投下反对票，应被视为其 角逐美联储主席职位的一次行动。若拒绝特朗普强烈要求的降息，可能会大幅降低沃勒的获选概率。在 预测市场上，目前沃勒的支持率仍落后于贝莱德高管里克·里德尔及前美联储理事凯文·沃什。Principal Asset Management全球首席策略师希玛·沙阿表示，随着时间推移，沃勒关于政策需要更接近中性立场的 论点可能会获得更多支持——尤其是在劳动力市场降温迹象变得更加确凿且通胀下行趋势持续的情况 下。 ·周四，印度卢比汇率跌至历史最低点。持续疲弱的外资流动以及企业对冲汇率进一步贬值风险的急切 行为，共同压制了经济基本面的积极影响。卢比兑美元汇率跌至91.9850，打破了上周创下的91.9650的 历 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is expected to perform strongly in 2025, leading to bullish sentiment among investors entering 2026, despite underlying economic challenges and high valuation levels [1][2]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The stock allocation ratio is rising, with fund managers holding cash at historical lows, driven by expectations of continued market growth [1]. - The forward valuation ratio of the S&P 500 has reached historical peaks, often preceding significant market corrections [1]. - High valuations are seen as a potential obstacle for market growth, but not insurmountable, requiring strong corporate fundamentals to support current stock prices [2]. Economic Outlook and Earnings Pressure - Optimism about economic growth is facing challenges, particularly with recent weaknesses in the U.S. job market and persistent inflation [1]. - Companies must meet high earnings expectations to maintain positive market sentiment, with global earnings anticipated to grow by double digits, particularly in emerging markets [6]. Sector Rotation and Investment Opportunities - Recent adjustments in the AI and semiconductor sectors have led to the emergence of more attractive investment opportunities in other areas, prompting investors to rebalance their portfolios [9]. - The rotation phenomenon is occurring in both U.S. and European markets, with funds shifting towards cyclical sectors and defensive assets [9]. Seasonal Market Trends - Historical data suggests that the beginning of the year typically sees a seasonal rise in market risk appetite, although January and February may not always be strong months for market performance [11]. Stock Selection Environment - The concentration of market returns in large tech stocks has created a favorable environment for stock-picking investors, with lower correlations among index constituents [13]. - Active management is expected to outperform benchmarks as the benefits of AI spread across sectors [13]. Crowded Positioning and Risks - Current market positioning is relatively crowded, with high expectations for economic growth and asset performance, leading to a significant drop in cash levels among investors [15]. - The greatest downside risk is seen in the potential deterioration of the U.S. job market, which could reignite recession fears [15].

Core Insights - The November core inflation unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in over four years, raising skepticism among economists due to data collection issues caused by a prolonged government shutdown [1][3] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since March 2021, while the overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below economists' expectations [1][3] Data Collection Issues - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faced significant data collection challenges due to a 43-day government shutdown, which hindered the collection of October price data, leading to potential distortions in both year-on-year and month-on-month data [3][4] - Economists criticized the BLS for assuming zero growth in rental prices for October, which artificially lowered the November inflation figures [3][6] Market Reactions - Despite doubts about the reliability of the data, U.S. stock markets rebounded following the CPI release, with the three major indices opening higher [3][8] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January increased slightly to about 22%, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2026 [3][8] Housing Costs Concerns - Housing costs emerged as a major point of contention, with a year-on-year increase of only 3%, the smallest in over four years, raising questions about the accuracy of the inflation data [9][10] - The report indicated that core goods prices rose by 1.4% year-on-year, while energy prices increased by 4.2%, highlighting the mixed signals in the inflation data [9][10] Economic Outlook - Economists expressed concerns that the data collection delays and the timing of data collection during discount periods could further distort the inflation figures [4][6] - The overall sentiment among market participants remains divided, with some viewing the data as a potential signal for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, while others caution against overreacting to potentially flawed data [8][10]

Core Insights - The November core inflation unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in over four years, raising skepticism among economists due to data collection issues caused by a prolonged government shutdown [1][3] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since March 2021, while the overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below economists' expectations [1][3] Data Collection Issues - The core CPI only increased by 0.2% over the two months leading to November, with significant data collection disruptions due to a 43-day government shutdown [3][4] - Economists criticized the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for assuming zero growth in rental prices for October, which artificially lowered the November inflation figures [3][4][6] - The BLS's data collection was delayed until late November, coinciding with the "Black Friday" discount period, potentially distorting the data further [4][6] Market Reactions - Despite skepticism regarding the data's reliability, U.S. stock markets rebounded following the CPI release, with expectations of a slight increase in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January [3][7] - Some market analysts view the unexpected decline in inflation as a strong basis for the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut, while others remain cautious about the data's validity [7][10] Sector-Specific Insights - Housing costs emerged as a significant concern, with a year-on-year increase of only 3%, the smallest in over four years, raising questions about the accuracy of the reported inflation figures [9][10] - The report indicated that energy prices rose by 4.2%, with electricity prices increasing by 6.9%, while used car prices saw a 3.6% rise, reflecting ongoing affordability concerns among consumers [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The influx of foreign investors into Japan's bond market is significantly increasing market volatility, with overseas investors now accounting for approximately 65% of monthly cash transactions, up from 12% in 2009 [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors are expected to purchase a record amount of Japanese government bonds this year, despite the risks associated with rapid capital withdrawal [1]. - The current public debt in Japan is projected to reach about $9.3 trillion, approximately 230% of GDP, raising concerns about potential confidence shocks [4]. - Foreign traders have more investment options compared to their Japanese counterparts, making it easier for them to reduce their holdings [5]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Risks - Japan's bond market is increasingly susceptible to sharp market fluctuations, similar to those experienced in the UK during Liz Truss's brief premiership [4]. - The volatility of Japanese government bonds has more than doubled since 2021, as the Bank of Japan reduces its market participation [8]. - The rising yields and volatility in Japan could disrupt global financial markets, especially if the Bank of Japan delays adjusting interest rates [11]. Group 3: Domestic vs. Foreign Investor Dynamics - Domestic investors still hold the majority of Japanese government bonds, with the Bank of Japan owning over 50% of outstanding debt, providing a stabilizing effect that foreign investors cannot replicate [6]. - Foreign investors tend to have a higher turnover rate and are more opportunistic, which can lead to disproportionate impacts on the market compared to local holders [8]. Group 4: Government Response and Policy Implications - Prime Minister Suga's administration is implementing a significant spending plan, which may influence foreign investor confidence [1]. - The government is aware of the underperformance of Japanese bonds relative to other markets and is in a better position to address these issues compared to previous administrations [8].

NEW YORK, Nov. 03, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Apollo (NYSE: APO) today announced that Apollo-managed funds (the “Apollo Funds”) have completed the previously announced acquisition of a majority interest in Stream Data Centers (“SDC” or the “Company”), a leading developer and operator of hyperscale data center campuses across the United States. As part of the transaction, Principal Asset Management® (“Principal”) is acquiring a minority interest in SDC through a Principal-managed fund. SDC’s management team wi ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth week, leading to a "data famine" on Wall Street, with the delayed release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report expected to miss its optimal impact on the market [1] - The market anticipates a core CPI increase of 0.3% for September, slightly below expectations, with tariff pressures expected to raise prices in categories like communications and household goods [1][2] - Despite potential higher CPI data, the market's view on the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change significantly, with nearly 100% certainty that a 25 basis point rate cut will occur in the upcoming meeting [1][4] CPI Predictions - Predictions for the core CPI vary, with estimates ranging from 0.2% to 0.4%, but the majority expect a 0.3% increase [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the impact of tariffs will contribute approximately 0.07 percentage points to core inflation, primarily affecting sensitive categories [2][3] - Excluding tariff effects, underlying inflation pressures are diminishing, supported by a decrease in housing rent and labor market contributions [2] Tariff Impact and Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of tariff transmission to consumer prices is a key focus for Wall Street [3] - BNP Paribas views the September CPI as a critical checkpoint, suggesting a downward risk due to moderate housing costs and limited tariff transmission [3] - Citi expects a core CPI increase of 0.28%, indicating that weakening labor and housing markets are reducing inflation risks, supporting further easing by the Federal Reserve [3][4] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Outlook - The CPI report is unlikely to alter market expectations for a rate cut, with projections indicating a total of 54 basis points of cuts by year-end [4][5] - Market volatility is anticipated if CPI data exceeds expectations, with some analysts viewing it as a buying opportunity due to strong economic fundamentals [7] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal a divergence in views among officials regarding inflation and labor market conditions, with a consensus that inflation impacts are diminishing [5][7]

A Principal Asset Management fund is keeping a close eye on the rupiah after selling most of its Indonesian sovereign bonds, as political instability stirred concern over fiscal policy https://t.co/ZVLLU5JHvz ...

Core Insights - JSW One Platforms has successfully raised an additional INR 235 Cr, bringing the total funding in the current round to INR 575 Cr, following an earlier raise of INR 340 Cr at a unicorn valuation [1][2] Funding Details - The funding round included participation from notable investors such as State Bank of India (SBI), Principal Asset Management, One-Up, International Conveyors Ltd. (ICL), Scarlett Ventures, and JSW Steel [2] - The initial funding round was initiated in May 2023, with the company announcing a raise of INR 340 Cr at that time [2] Use of Funds - The company plans to utilize the fresh capital to invest in its proprietary technology platform, expand operations, and strengthen its non-banking financial company (NBFC) arm [3] - Specific plans include increasing credit access, enhancing underwriting capabilities, and designing customized financial products for small businesses [4] - Additionally, the company aims to expand its distribution and logistics network across major industrial clusters to improve last-mile delivery and provide embedded financial services [4] Company Overview - Founded in 2020, JSW One Platforms operates as a B2B tech-enabled marketplace catering to construction and manufacturing MSMEs, offering services from procurement and credit to fulfillment and private brands [5] - The company also runs JSW One Homes, which connects clients with professionals and contractors for the entire process of buying a plot and building a home [5] Financial Performance - In FY24, the company reported a revenue of INR 70.7 Cr, with a net loss of INR 199.8 Cr [7] - The company has experienced significant growth, claiming a 2.4X year-over-year increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) to INR 12,567 Cr in FY25, with projections to surpass INR 8,000 Cr in GMV in H1 FY26 [6]

Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern speak daily with leaders and decision makers from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. No other program better positions investors and executives for the trading day. 00:00:00 Bloomberg Surveillance 00:03:59 Lori Calvasina, RBC 00:18:15 Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy 00:26:52 Morning Movers 00:28:12 On Our Radar 00:31:00 Kate Kalutkiewicz, Former Trump White House trade official 00:39:50 Christian Nolting, Deutsche Bank Private Bank 00:52:08 Russ Koesteric ...