1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated with average trading volume. Russian nickel supplies were tight, while some imported supplies such as Sumitomo arrived. In the industry chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and as the rainy season in the Philippines approached, mines held prices firm, and shipping freight rates remained stable this week. Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight decline, and the cost line continued to loosen downward. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, and the destocking process resumed. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged [8]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, prices fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average moved horizontally. After the price stood above the 20 - day moving average on Friday, the open interest decreased significantly. The MACD green bar was small, showing signs of a golden cross. The KDJ was upward, gradually entering the overbought zone. Overall, price fluctuations were not large [81]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices oscillated this week, with average trading volume. The supply of Russian nickel was tight, and some imported supplies arrived. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would continue to increase on both sides, but the oversupply pattern would not change. In the new energy industry chain, the substitution of ternary materials was becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand slowed down [8][26]. - **Trading Strategies**: - The main contract of Shanghai nickel would oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800 [9][86]. - The main contract of stainless steel would oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [10][87]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: - Nickel ore prices remained stable, with no change in the prices of red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% compared to last week [13][19]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 0.35%, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel iron decreased by 0.53%, and the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged [13]. - The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price all increased slightly, while the price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.27% [14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: - Nickel ore prices and shipping freight rates remained stable. As of October 23, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.9791 million wet tons, a decrease of 309,300 wet tons from the previous period, a decline of 2.02%. In September 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 232,200 tons, a decline of 3.66%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.5483 million tons, an increase of 33.91%. The nickel ore market had fair trading this week, and as the Philippines entered the rainy season, future supplies might decline [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: - Nickel prices oscillated with average trading volume. Russian nickel supplies were tight, and some imported supplies arrived. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would continue to increase on both sides, but the oversupply pattern would not change. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 25.03%. The estimated production in October 2025 was 37,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 20.42%. In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,181 tons, an increase of 17.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 22,779 tons, an increase of 407.65%. The export volume was 14,112.095 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 936 tons, a decline of 6.22%, and a year - on - year increase of 3,807 tons, an increase of 36.94% [25][26][29]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: - Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight decline. In September 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production in metal terms was 21,700 tons, a month - on - month decline of 5.06% and a year - on - year decline of 13.64%. In September 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 1.085 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 211,000 tons, an increase of 24.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 348,000 tons, an increase of 47.2%. The nickel iron inventory in September was 202,900 physical tons, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [44][48][51]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly this week. In September, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, of which the 300 - series production was 1.7627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. The latest stainless steel import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. As of October 24, the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 601,100 tons, in Foshan was 302,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0274 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,800 tons [59][64][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% respectively [75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis On the daily K - line, prices fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average moved horizontally. After the price stood above the 20 - day moving average on Friday, the open interest decreased significantly. The MACD green bar was small, showing signs of a golden cross. The KDJ was upward, gradually entering the overbought zone. Overall, price fluctuations were not large [81]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral. Quotations were stable, shipping freight rates were flat, and the rainy season was approaching [84]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight decline, and the cost line decreased to some extent [84]. - **Refined Nickel**: Slightly bearish. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and inventories continued to accumulate at home and abroad [84]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. Inventories declined [84]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. Production data were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased year - on - year [84].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价震荡运行，成交一般，俄镍货源偏紧，住友等进口货源有一定到货。产业链上， 镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿山挺价，海运费本周维稳。镍铁价格稳中有降，成本线继续向 下有所松动。不锈钢库存小幅回落，再次去库存，关注可持续性。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池 装车有所回升，但总体提振有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122900，基差750，偏多 3、库存：LME库存250854，0，上交所仓单26810，-71，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2512：20均线上下宽幅震荡思路。 不锈钢 每 ...

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 earnings that met expectations, with a revenue of 58.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, and a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year [1] - The nickel segment maintained stable production and overproduction to offset price declines, while rising cobalt prices contributed to profit growth [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 21.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.3% - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.505 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year increase and a 3.2% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] Industry Trends - The company is advancing key projects and strengthening its integrated industrial advantages, including new stakes in two laterite nickel mines and a 63% increase in lithium resources from the Arcadia lithium mine [2] - The tightening supply and demand dynamics are driving cobalt prices up, with the Democratic Republic of Congo's new export quotas expected to tighten the market further [2] - The commercial application of solid-state batteries is anticipated to boost demand for ternary batteries, with projections indicating a tight supply-demand situation in the cobalt industry from 2025 to 2027 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the significant rise in cobalt prices, the company's profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 20.3% and 54.3%, respectively, to 5.92 billion yuan and 8.33 billion yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 for 2025 and 14.3 for 2026, with a target price increase of 72.1% to 74.56 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 19.1% from the current stock price [3]

不锈钢 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落，20均线下震荡运行。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿 山挺价，部分地区有地震，但对开采影响有限。镍铁价格弱稳，成本线坚挺，镍铁企业仍然亏损。不锈 钢库存国庆期间回升。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对镍需求提升有限。中 长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122450，基差1040，偏多 3、库存：LME库存242094，+4716，上交所仓单25272，+44，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：宽幅震荡思路，逢高仍可试空。 1、基本面 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘下探之后回升。宏观面上本周美国有降息预期。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，印尼突然 查矿引发矿端利多，看后期是否会有实质性的情况。镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线进一步上移。不锈钢库 存继续回落，金九银十去库存良好。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对镍需求 提升有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122800，基差1010，偏多 3、库存：LME库存228468，+2034，上交所仓单26141，-26，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：20均线上下震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: With an expected interest rate cut, it is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but in the short - term, there are factors such as high - level shock in the external market, a firm nickel ore price due to Indonesia's sudden mine inspection, a steady increase in ferronickel price, and a decline in stainless steel inventory. [2] - **不锈钢**: It is expected to operate in a wide - range fluctuation. The short - term situation is neutral to positive, with a firm nickel ore price, a steady increase in ferronickel price, and a continuous decline in stainless steel inventory. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On September 16, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,610 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of LME nickel was 15,445 yuan, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,970 yuan, down 100 yuan. [11] - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,600 yuan, up 600 yuan; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,700 yuan, up 550 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 122,800 yuan, up 650 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 124,950 yuan, up 650 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled coils in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged. [11] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **As of September 12**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, of which the futures inventory was 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. [13] - **On September 16**: LME nickel inventory was 226,434 tons, an increase of 1,950 tons; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,167 tons, an increase of 1,208 tons; the total inventory was 252,601 tons, an increase of 3,158 tons. [14] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **As of September 12**: The inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. [18] - **On September 16**: The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 95,745 tons, a decrease of 604 tons compared with the previous day. [19] 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On September 16, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with a Ni content of 1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with a Ni content of 0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. [22] - **Ferronickel Prices**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 954 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,470 yuan per ton, both unchanged from the previous day. [22] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 13,160 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,565 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,907 yuan. [24] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price was 124,377 yuan per ton. [26] 3.7 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Positive Factors**: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 yuan. [6] - **Negative Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply situation, and a year - on - year decline in the loading volume of ternary batteries. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel (2509), it is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply - demand situation shows an oversupply pattern, but short - term factors such as cost increases and potential consumption growth during the "Golden September and Silver October" need to be considered [2]. - For Stainless Steel (2510), it is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The short - term cost is rising slightly, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Nickel Futures**: On August 15, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 15,195 yuan, up 145 yuan. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,500 yuan, down 1,850 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: On August 15, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) was 13,750 yuan, down 50 yuan [12]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 15, the LME nickel inventory was 211,662 tons, an increase of 522 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel warehouse receipts were 22,141 tons, an increase of 1,421 tons. The total inventory was 233,803 tons, an increase of 1,943 tons [15]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 15, the inventory in Wuxi was 61.01 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 314,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,078,900 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 644,500 tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons [19]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipts on the futures market were 103,277 tons, a decrease of 244 tons [20]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 15, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel ferronickel was 925.5 yuan per nickel point, up 1 yuan [23]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,901 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,587 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,384 yuan [25]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 122,636 yuan per ton [29]. 3.7 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Positive Factors**: The expected consumption growth during the "Golden September and Silver October", the anti - involution policy, the firm price of nickel ore, and the slight rebound of downstream ferronickel prices, which led to a slight upward shift in the cost line [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, the lack of new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern, and the year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7].

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on Shanghai nickel and stainless steel dated August 15, 2025, provided by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Shanghai Nickel 2509 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3] - Stainless Steel 2510 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5] Summary by Directory Shanghai Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The external market has fallen significantly, with prices below the 20 - day moving average. There was a shipment of Norwegian nickel slabs last week, increasing supply. The ore price is stable, and the ferronickel price has a slight increase. The cost line has stabilized and rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has declined. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Overall, it is bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price is 123,350, and the basis is 2,150, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 211,140 (+42), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,720 (+142), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is stable, ocean freight has decreased slightly, and the ferronickel price has a slight increase. The cost line has risen slightly, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Overall, it is neutral [5] - **Basis**: The average stainless - steel price is 13,850, and the basis is 825, which is bullish [5] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 103,521 (+3), which is bearish [5] - **Market**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5] Multi - and Short - term Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [8] - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, with no new demand growth points. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries has increased [8] Price Overview - **Nickel**: On August 14, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,200 (-1,140 compared to August 13), and the LME nickel was at 15,050 (-190). The spot prices of SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans all decreased [13] - **Stainless Steel**: On August 14, the stainless - steel main contract was at 13,025 (-105 compared to August 13), and the spot prices of cold - rolled coils in different regions remained unchanged [13] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 14, LME inventory was 211,140 (+42), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,720 (+142) [15][16] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 8, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,620 tons, in Foshan was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons month - on - month. The 300 - series inventory was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons month - on - month. On August 14, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 103,521 (+3) [19][20] Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - Red soil nickel ore CIF prices (Ni1.5% at 57 dollars/wet ton and Ni0.9% at 29 dollars/wet ton) remained unchanged on August 14 compared to August 13. Ocean freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. The high - nickel ferronickel price increased by 1.5 yuan/nickel point, and the low - nickel ferronickel price remained unchanged [23] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,931, the scrap - steel production cost is 13,649, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,534 [25] Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price is 121,457/ton [28]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation shows a complex mix of factors, with a medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remaining unchanged [3][4]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **沪镍 Daily View** - **基本面**: The external market first declined and then rebounded, with support at the 20 - day moving average. Last week, there was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs, increasing supply. The nickel ore price is stable, the ferronickel price is rising steadily, and the cost line has stabilized and rebounded slightly. The stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly. The new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has decreased. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, which is bearish [4]. - **基差**: The spot price is 123,500, and the basis is 1,060, which is bullish [4]. - **库存**: The LME inventory is 211,746 (an increase of 450), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,693 (a decrease of 30), which is bearish [4]. - **盘面**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **主力持仓**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. **不锈钢 Daily View** - **基本面**: The spot stainless steel price has increased. In the short term, the nickel ore price is stable, the ocean freight has decreased slightly, the ferronickel price is rising steadily, the cost line has increased slightly, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased. The situation is neutral [5]. - **基差**: The average stainless steel price is 13,887.5, and the basis is 687.5, which is bullish [5]. - **库存**: The futures warehouse receipts are 103,940 (an increase of 904), which is bearish [5]. - **盘面**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - **结论**: The stainless steel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [5]. **多空因素 - 影响因素总结** - **利多因素**: There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [8]. - **利空因素**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new growth points in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The nickel ore price is weakly stable, the ferronickel price is weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [8]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** - **期货 prices**: On August 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,440 (an increase of 310 compared to August 11), the LME nickel was 15,360 (an increase of 35), and the stainless steel main contract was 13,200 (a decrease of 25). - **现货 prices**: The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,500 (an increase of 650), and the average price of stainless steel was 13,887.5 [13][5]. **镍仓单、库存** - **镍库存**: As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with the futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 12, the LME inventory was 211,746 (an increase of 450), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,693 (a decrease of 30) [15][16]. **不锈钢仓单、库存** - **不锈钢库存**: On August 8, the Wuxi inventory was 61,620 tons, the Foshan inventory was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons month - on - month. On August 12, the stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 103,940 (an increase of 904) [19][20]. **镍矿、镍铁价格** - **镍矿价格**: The CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% is 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% is 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from August 11. - **镍铁价格**: The high - nickel ferronickel price is 921.5 yuan per nickel point (an increase of 2.5), and the low - nickel ferronickel price is 3,420 yuan per ton (an increase of 20) [23]. **不锈钢生产成本** - The traditional cost is 12,919, the scrap steel production cost is 13,699, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,510 [25]. **镍进口成本测算** The imported price is converted to 124,122 yuan per ton [28].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term impact of the macro - anti - involution has been digested, and spot trading did not improve with price drops. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. The ore price and ferronickel price are weakly stable, with some ferronickel quotes rising, but the cost line remains low. Stainless steel is in the traditional consumption off - season in July and August, and the inventory of the 300 series increased slightly this week. Although new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, the loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing, and nickel demand in the new energy sector is declining. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The 2509 contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is weakly stable, ocean freight is firm, and the ferronickel price is weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line is still low, and stainless steel consumption has entered the off - season. The 2509 contract of stainless steel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Price Information** - **镍**: On August 1st, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,650 yuan, down 600 yuan from July 31st; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 121,850 yuan, down 550 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 119,950 yuan, down 550 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 119,150 yuan, down 600 yuan. The Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,770 yuan, down 60 yuan from July 31st, and the LME nickel price was 15,020 US dollars, up 70 US dollars [12]. - **不锈钢**: On August 1st, the price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,840 yuan, up 35 yuan from July 31st. The cold - rolled coil prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [12]. **Inventory Information** - **镍**: As of August 1st, the LME nickel inventory was 209,082 tons, an increase of 390 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 21,374 tons, a decrease of 331 tons; the total inventory was 230,456 tons, an increase of 59 tons [15]. - **不锈钢**: On August 1st, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,950 tons, in Foshan was 324,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,111,200 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series was 676,700 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 102,986 tons, a decrease of 248 tons [19][20]. **Cost Information** - **镍**: The price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and for Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from July 31st. The ocean freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, also unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 912.5 yuan per nickel point, unchanged, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,300 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan [23]. - **不锈钢**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,796 yuan, the cost of scrap steel production was 13,471 yuan, and the cost of low - nickel + pure nickel production was 16,302 yuan [25]. - **镍 import cost**: The converted import price was 121,513 yuan per ton [28]. **Multi - and Short - Factors** - **Likely to be bullish**: New energy vehicle data continued to perform well, with production and sales increasing year - on - year in June, and there are anti - involution policies [7]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line remains low [7].