以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴 实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿智睿见 来源：雪球 昨天A股终于站上3500点了，虽然在3500点了，但很多人的持仓可能还在3100点，因为结构化行 情很显著。这对投资者是极大的考验。 3500点以后，市场整体就要奔着去年10月的高点挑战了。 但是请注意， 不大可能一鼓作气就拿下。 一、未来还要磨洋工 上次突破3500点是11月8日。那会全A的成交额在2.6万亿以上！ 这么高的成交额都没有快速突破，为啥？ 因为换手率是3.58%。 今天的成交额只有1.5万亿，换手率是1.2%。 股价=成交额/（换手率*自由流通股本） 两者相比，我们就能发现，现在换手率萎缩得更快，说明 配置资金占比又上了一个台阶。 配置资金买入时的市场特征就是： 低波、低换手，相对较低的成交额。 既然是配置资金占主导，那么市场大概率是走慢牛。继续磨洋工。 今天成交额居前的ETF全是A500，昨天跟大 ...

每经记者｜王郁彪 每经编辑｜张海妮 职业伤害保障扩围，正在给更多身处一线的从业人员"解困"。 7月11日，中国物流与采购联合会发布的《2025年货车司机从业状况调查报告》（以下简称《报告》）显示，超过八成的司机已参加各类社会保险，参保比 例稳步提升。 货运纠纷不断 货车司机对"法律援助"需求迫切 《报告》显示，货车司机参加社会保险以新农合养老和医疗保险为主，占比达到52.63%，还有22.02%的货车司机选择以灵活就业人员身份自行购买养老和 医疗保险，19.39%的司机则选择自己购买商业保险，有少部分司机参加了平台试点的职业伤害保险。 记者注意到，交通运输部等四部门指出，各地工会组织、交通运输部门要会同中国职工保险互助会积极开展货车司机职工互助保险业务，为遭遇意外伤害、 突发重大疾病的货车司机提供互助互济保障。 此外，各地还需积极探索推出货车司机职工互助保险业务，为货车司机提供意外伤害、突发重大疾病等保障。鼓励各地加大经费补助力度，为货车司机赠送 职工互助保险。 除了参加各类社会保险外，《报告》数据显示，货车司机需要的社会保障服务中，需求最迫切的是法律援助服务，占比达到50.49%，这也反映货车司机群 体对法 ...

牛市旗手大爆发 券商板块开盘后一路走高，中银证券2连板，哈投股份、中原证券涨停，国盛金控、国金证券、中信建投、东方财富等纷纷大涨超5%。 | ▼ | 训学 | | > ··· () | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1837.66(+72.83 +4.13%) | | | | 讨论 | 板块分析 成分股 | | 相关ETF 资讯 | | 全部(49) | 关注度 | | 主力资金 北向 | | 名称 | 最新价 ÷ | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 市盈率; | | 中银证券 SH601696 | 13.04 | +10.04% | 36.80 | | 哈投股份 SHR00864 | | 6.82 +10.00% | 44.37 | | 中原证券 | 4.65 | +9.93% | 99.02 | | SH601375 | | | | | 国盛金控 SZ002670 | 15.59 | +7.44% | 140.45 | | 国金证券 SH600109 | 9.71 | +6.94% | 19.11 | | 国联民生 SH601456 | | 11.21 +6.66% | 64.17 | | ...

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基 础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有据。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 最近几个月 ， 后台的留言开始又变得有些纠结 。 有人问 ： " 沪深300还能不能买 ？ 涨过一波了是不是有点危险 ？ " 也有人说 ： " 中证红利是 不是估值相对低一点 ？ 还能加点么 ？ " 更有不少朋友感叹 ： " 你一直说别怕没有机会 ， 但到底啥时候才是机会 ？ 一直不低估啊 ！ " 如果你此刻账户大致处于盈亏相抵 、 不温不火的状态 ， 不要觉得只有你这样 。 我想说 ： 你所处的位置 ， 正是市场中最常见 ， 也往往是最漫长的阶段 —— 估值正常期 ， 且 市场处于结构性轮动状态 。 和低估期需要 " 敢买 " 、 高估期需要 " 敢卖 " 不同 ， 估值正常期的难点在于 ： 你既没太大 诱因去加仓 ， 也没明显理由清仓止盈 ； 账户半浮盈 、 半浮亏 ， 每天看盘都像白看 ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of investment is to buy the future cash flow generation ability of companies, with Return on Equity (ROE) being a critical indicator of this ability [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of ROE - ROE reflects how much net profit shareholders earn for every unit of equity invested, making it a more reliable measure of profitability than earnings per share [3][4]. - High ROE is preferred, and it should ideally be higher than competitors to indicate better management performance [3][4]. - Long-term evaluation of ROE is essential, with a recommended assessment period of at least five years to gauge a company's true performance [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Examples - Historical data shows that only 6 out of 1000 major U.S. companies had an ROE exceeding 30% over ten years, with 25 companies maintaining an average ROE of 20% without dipping below 15% in any year [4]. - Companies with high ROE often share common traits: low leverage and a focus on core business, leading to sustainable competitive advantages [5][9]. - A statistical analysis of companies with high ROE indicates that 97% of the time, they achieve over 10% annualized returns, with 55% achieving over 20% [8][10]. Group 3: Resilience in Adversity - The white liquor industry has faced numerous crises over the past 30 years, yet companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have managed to capture more market share during downturns [9][10]. - Despite short-term challenges, long-term investments in high ROE companies tend to yield positive returns, as evidenced by historical performance [11][12]. - Current market conditions show that even with low valuations, the ROE of leading companies in the industry remains strong, indicating sustained competitive strength [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term value investing and the need for investors to remain patient and focused on their investment goals, even when market trends do not align with their current holdings [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Investment Strategy - The current market is characterized by a focus on bank stocks and small-cap stocks, which the author's friend's portfolio lacks, leading to underperformance compared to market trends [2]. - A portfolio consisting of high ROE stocks can outperform the market over the long term, provided that investors are not overly focused on short-term gains [3]. - Investors should be cautious of high-risk investments, as most individuals lack the ability to manage such risks effectively, and high returns are not guaranteed [4]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The banking sector currently has a dividend yield of around 4%, but the high leverage involved poses significant risks, making it less attractive compared to lower-leverage consumer stocks with similar yields [4]. - The current PE ratio of the CSI 2000 index is 132, placing it in the 92.36th percentile historically, indicating limited upward potential [4]. - The PB ratio of the CSI 2000 index is 2.46, which is in the 94.98th percentile historically, suggesting that valuations are stretched and may not support further price increases [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The article advocates for a rational and detached approach to investing, where investors avoid chasing trends and instead focus on the long-term value of their holdings [5]. - The "Snowball Three-Point Method" is introduced as a strategy for long-term investment and asset allocation, emphasizing diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve risk mitigation and diversified returns [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3500-point mark, with all three major indices closing higher, indicating a positive market sentiment and performance [1]. Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The four major banks (Industrial, Agricultural, China, and Construction Bank) have reached historical highs, contributing significantly to the market's upward movement [4][3]. - As of the market close, Industrial Bank's stock rose by 2.93%, with a total market capitalization of 2.88 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the largest in A-shares [7]. - The recent rally in bank stocks is attributed to three main factors: the attractiveness of bank dividends in a low-interest-rate environment, increased capital inflows due to public fund adjustments, and accelerated conversion of bank convertible bonds [7]. Group 2: Securities Sector Strength - Securities stocks have also shown strong performance, with notable gains in companies like Zhongyin Securities, which hit the daily limit, and others such as Hongta Securities and Northeast Securities [9]. - Hongta Securities has projected a net profit increase of 45% to 55% for the first half of 2025, indicating robust growth potential in the sector [12]. Group 3: Rare Earth Sector Surge - The rare earth sector has experienced significant gains, with Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit and reporting an expected net profit increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% for the first half of 2025 [13][17]. - Northern Rare Earth's market capitalization has reached 976 billion yuan, reflecting its leading position in the rare earth permanent magnet industry [14]. Group 4: ST Huatuo's Volatility - ST Huatuo, known as the "game king" of A-shares, faced volatility due to financial discrepancies in its annual report, leading to a significant drop in stock price after initially surpassing a market cap of 1 trillion yuan [20]. - The stock has seen a cumulative increase of 317.49% since July 25, 2024, but recent performance raises concerns about its sustainability given the high valuation compared to its earnings [23].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a means for ordinary investors to navigate the uncertainties of the financial market, likening it to Noah's Ark for survival and growth [2][3] - The article discusses the theoretical foundation of asset allocation, highlighting Harry Markowitz's mean-variance model and its significance in reducing risk through the scientific combination of low-correlated assets [4] - It presents empirical evidence showing that 91% of mutual fund performance differences from 1970 to 2020 were due to asset allocation strategies rather than stock selection or market timing [4] Group 2 - The practical value of asset allocation is illustrated through examples of risk diversification, such as the "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds during market downturns, which can significantly reduce portfolio drawdowns [5] - Behavioral finance insights are shared, indicating that proper asset allocation can mitigate emotional responses during market volatility, reducing the psychological impact of asset fluctuations [5] - The article provides a performance comparison of a diversified asset allocation strategy from 2010 to 2020, showing an annualized return of 7.2% with a maximum drawdown of only 9.8% [5] Group 3 - The article outlines strategic tools for asset allocation, including the "Four Seasons" method that adjusts asset allocation based on economic cycles [6] - It discusses lifecycle-based asset allocation, recommending different asset mixes for various age groups to align risk exposure with life stages [7] - The use of various financial instruments, such as ETFs, convertible bonds, and REITs, is suggested to enhance portfolio diversification and returns [8] Group 4 - Historical lessons are drawn from past financial crises, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversified asset allocation strategies in mitigating losses compared to concentrated positions [9][10] - The article highlights the performance of Bridgewater's All Weather strategy during periods of economic stress, showcasing its ability to generate positive returns while traditional equities suffered losses [10] Group 5 - The future of asset allocation is discussed in the context of technological advancements, including big data, AI optimization, and blockchain, which are transforming the investment landscape [11] - The article concludes with a philosophy of viewing asset allocation as a means to achieve financial security and stability rather than speculative gains, emphasizing disciplined investment practices [12][13] Group 6 - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is introduced as a risk management framework that balances stocks, bonds, and commodities to create a defensive investment strategy [26][27] - The method emphasizes dynamic rebalancing to maintain target asset allocations and enhance returns through systematic adjustments based on market conditions [28] - The article discusses the potential for generating excess returns through strategic asset allocation, including timing and sector rotation based on market conditions [30] Group 7 - A proposed asset allocation strategy is presented, incorporating global assets, bonds, A-shares, and alternative investments to create a robust defensive structure [34][36] - The strategy aims to mitigate geopolitical risks through diversified global exposure and balance between interest rate and credit risk [37] - The allocation includes a focus on high-dividend assets to provide stability during market downturns, reinforcing the importance of income-generating investments [38] Group 8 - The article emphasizes the importance of dynamic balancing and threshold management in maintaining optimal asset allocations, ensuring that portfolios remain aligned with market conditions [44] - It discusses the need for liquidity management to address unexpected redemption demands, highlighting the role of cash and cash-equivalent assets [53] - The overall philosophy of the proposed asset allocation strategy is to build a "anti-fragile" investment system capable of withstanding market volatility while capturing structural opportunities [54][55]

A股三大指数今日集体走强，沪指再度剑指3500点。截止收盘，沪指涨0.70%，收报3497.48点；深证成指涨1.46%；创业板指涨2.39%。沪深两市成 交额达到14539亿，较昨日放量2453亿。 今日上涨股票数量接近4300只，逾70只股票涨停。算力硬件股集体爆发，工业富联等10余股涨停。光伏概念股再度反弹，通威股份等10余股涨停。 金融股一度冲高，大智慧涨停。 01 5000亿巨头涨停 受业绩催化，工业富联今日涨停，股价报26.38元/股，创2025年新高，市值突破5000亿元，达5239亿元。成交额74.83亿元排沪深主板第一。 消息面上，工业富联7月7日发布2025年半年报业绩预告，2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润119.58亿元-121.58亿元，与上年同期相 比，将上升32.19亿元-34.19亿元，同比上升36.84%-39.12%，远超市场预期。 对于业绩预增原因，公司表示，公司云计算业务在二季度实现高速增长，AI服务器营业收入较去年同期增长超过60%，云服务商服务器的营业收入 较去年同期增长超过1.5倍，英伟达GPU模块及算力板出货显著提升。精密机构件业务方面，得益于大客户 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：风卷红旗过大关 在成长期持有 ， 并不是公司业绩增长 ， 投资者就能够赚到钱 ， 成长初期发展到成熟期 ， 业 绩增速 ， 估值波动 ， 市况流动性 ， 股价都是动态变化的 ， 绝不是线性发展的 …… 买的便宜 不能做后知后觉的价值投资者是前提 ， 我们更应该认识到成长期必然会经历到业绩增长与股价 调整共同消化高估值这个阶段 ， 而且这个阶段往往要比拔估值的阶段漫长 ， 况且市场流动性溢 价也不会一直存在 …… 拔估值的阶段 ， 顺势而为最重要 ， 顶部区域的乐观估值 ， 都是非理性估值 ， 但是从来都有 人愿意为此买单 ， 例子数不胜数 …… 这个阶段不用去考虑合理性 ， 因为各路资金抱团的正反 馈机制必然会导致趋势的强化并脱离理性走向极端 …… 至于对顶部区域的识别 ， 需要对市场情 绪与技术分析的深刻感知 …… 所以逃顶是一个艺术活 …… 我们谈估值最普遍的还属最基础的市盈率 ： 市盈率=股价/每股收益 ， 或者是总市值/净利润 ， 以下 ， 从市盈率的角度来谈谈成长股的估值 …… 假设公司当前年净利润10亿 ， ...