央视网消息：2025年，世界经济在动荡中前行。联合国报告显示，2025年世界经济增速预计回落，贸易、投资与供应链持续承压。主要经济体表现分 化，地缘政治紧张局势为复苏带来不确定性。挑战与机遇、破坏与重塑、增长与风险，形成全年世界经济冷暖交织的图景。来看央视记者徐德智从美国纽约 发回的观察。 这种趋势在发达经济体尤为明显，而一些新兴市场和发展中经济体则借助内部需求和增长潜力表现出相对韧性。与此同时，数字经济和绿色技术等领域 的投资成为推动未来增长的重要力量。而中国继续保持较高增速，为世界经济增长贡献了重要力量。 美欧关系现结构性调整 冲击多边贸易体系 进入2025年，美欧之间的关系呈现出更复杂的结构性调整趋势。一方面，在产业政策、贸易规则和能源转型等领域，美欧分歧逐步显现；另一方面，这 种分化也使得多边贸易体系面临更大压力。德国总理默茨明确表示，欧洲必须为与美国关系发生根本性变化做好准备，这一立场反映出欧洲在跨大西洋关系 中寻求更多战略自主性，同时应对外部环境的不确定性。报道指出，这一表态是对当前国际贸易摩擦与联盟内部分歧的一种战略性回应。 联合国呼吁加强全球合作 共同应对挑战 联合国秘书长古特雷斯反复强调，需 ...

在中美关系保持总体稳定之际，两国元首此次会晤达成的重要共识，不仅为中美关系稳定发展作出新指 引、注入新动力，也为当前动荡不安的世界注入确定性、提供正能量。 当地时间10月30日，国家主席习近平在韩国釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤。习近平指出，中美关系在 我们共同引领下，保持总体稳定。两国做伙伴、做朋友，这是历史的启示，也是现实的需要。 中国某港口一派繁忙景象。中国经济行稳致远为世界经济注入确定性。 ...

对话嘉宾 张宇燕 中国社会科学院学部委员 罗伯特·劳伦斯·库恩 美国库恩基金会主席 陈凤英 中国现代国际关系研究院研究员 翁诗杰 马来西亚亚太"一带一路"共策会会长 刘元春 上海财经大学校长 马哈茂德·乌尔·哈桑·汗 巴基斯坦南亚与国际研究中心主任 亚西鲁·拉纳拉贾 斯里兰卡国际问题专家 人类经济社会的每一次前行，总是在困境中探寻机遇、在动荡中找寻平衡。 即将过去的2025年，世界经济在缓慢复苏、温和增长与高度不确定性交织的发展进程中，展现出难能可 贵的韧性。面对地缘冲突持续、全球供应链产业链遭到冲击等困难与挑战，全球科技创新催生发展新动 能，全球绿色转型步伐不断加快，全球南方国家进一步深化南南合作，为世界经济注入稳定性和正能 量。 更令人欣喜的是，面对复杂严峻的外部环境，中国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活 力，成为世界经济的"稳定锚"。 2026年即将到来。世界经济前景如何？风险几多，机遇又在哪里？中国经济将提供怎样的信心与确定 性？ 本报邀请多位中外经济学者，共同解读世界经济2025年成绩单与2026年新展望。 2025年，世界经济整体表现如何，呈现怎样的亮点与看点？ ◇冲击与韧性◇ ☆20 ...

对话嘉宾 罗伯特·劳伦斯·库恩 美国库恩基金会主席 张宇燕 中国社会科学院学部委员 翁诗杰 马来西亚亚太"一带一路"共策会会长 陈凤英 中国现代国际关系研究院研究员 马哈茂德·乌尔·哈桑·汗 巴基斯坦南亚与国际研究中心主任 刘元春 上海财经大学校长 亚西鲁·拉纳拉贾 斯里兰卡国际问题专家 山东港口青岛港。张进刚摄（新华社发） 图为2025年6月，外国嘉宾在世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（2025夏季达沃斯论坛）现场交流讨 论。 新华社记者 李然摄 图为今年5月，带着行李箱的外国客商在浙江义乌国际商贸城准备采购样品。 新华社记者 陈朔摄 人类经济社会的每一次前行，总是在困境中探寻机遇、在动荡中找寻平衡。 即将过去的2025年，世界经济在缓慢复苏、温和增长与高度不确定性交织的发展进程中，展现出难能可 贵的韧性。面对地缘冲突持续、全球供应链产业链遭到冲击等困难与挑战，全球科技创新催生发展新动 能，全球绿色转型步伐不断加快，全球南方国家进一步深化南南合作，为世界经济注入稳定性和正能 量。 更令人欣喜的是，面对复杂严峻的外部环境，中国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活 力，成为世界经济的"稳定锚"。 图为2 ...

彭安杰、格奥尔基耶娃、格林斯潘表示，中国近年来取得举世瞩目发展成就，为促进世界经济增长发挥 重要作用。中国"十五五"规划将为世界经济带来宝贵的确定性和强劲动力。各方高度赞赏中国长期以来 对全球南方发展提供的宝贵帮助，愿同中方进一步加强政策沟通，深化贸易投资、人工智能、绿色发展 等领域合作，共同致力于促进贸易投资便利化和开放包容发展，坚持多边主义，维护联合国等多边机构 权威，改革完善全球治理体系。 吴政隆参加上述会见。（完） 李强表示，近年来，受地缘政治动荡加剧、国际经贸限制措施增多等影响，全球贸易投资走势低迷，产 业链供应链碎片化风险上升，很大程度拖累了世界经济增长。在这样的形势下，中国经济稳健前行，始 终坚持以自身所能，为世界经济注入确定性、稳定性。"十五五"时期，中国经济将持续向好。我们将坚 持扩大内需这个战略基点，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内大循环的内生动力和可靠 性。我们将以智能化、绿色化、融合化为方向，推进建设现代化产业体系，并同更多国家加强产业对接 合作，推动全球产业链供应链不断提质增效。我们将实施更加积极的宏观政策，从市场关切出发，更好 发挥财政政策、货币政策作用，保持经济增长在 ...

Core Insights - The OECD report indicates that the current global economy is resilient but still has potential vulnerabilities [1] - The OECD maintains its global economic growth forecasts at 3.2% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026, with a projected growth of 3.1% for 2027 [1] - Strong demand is attributed to loose global financial conditions, supportive macroeconomic policies, and new investments in artificial intelligence [1] Economic Growth Projections - The United States is projected to have economic growth rates of 2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026 [2] - The Eurozone's growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward to 1.3% and 1% respectively [2] - France's economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 0.8% and 1% [2] Risks and Recommendations - The report highlights potential economic risks such as increased trade barriers, lower-than-expected returns on AI investments, and the possibility of inflation returning unexpectedly [1] - It suggests that countries should seek cooperative paths within the global trade system and maintain vigilance against inflation risks [1] - OECD Secretary-General Coleman emphasizes the need for constructive dialogue among nations to address trade tensions and reduce policy uncertainty [1]

Core Insights - The IMF's Kristalina Georgieva highlights the presence of "exceptionally high uncertainty" in the global economy, urging nations to adopt prudent economic strategies to navigate these challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - Georgieva emphasizes that the current economic landscape is marked by significant unpredictability, which requires careful management by governments [1] - She advises nations to focus on fiscal policies that promote stability and growth amidst the uncertain environment [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The IMF suggests that countries should prioritize investments in infrastructure and education to bolster long-term economic resilience [1] - Georgieva calls for international cooperation to address global challenges, indicating that collective action is essential for overcoming economic hurdles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is facing significant challenges due to the impact of tariff wars, particularly from the United States, which is weakening growth momentum and creating uncertainty in international trade [1][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance of Developed Economies - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with GDP growth affected by tariff policies, leading to a contraction in Q1 and a modest growth of 1.4% in personal consumption expenditures in Q2 [2][3]. - The Eurozone's GDP growth in Q2 was only 0.1%, the lowest since early 2024, with major economies like Germany and Italy facing export challenges [3]. - Japan has revised its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 down to 0.7% from 1.2%, primarily due to the effects of U.S. tariffs [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Challenges - The global economy is under pressure from geopolitical tensions, tariff wars, and rising macroeconomic risks, with the U.S. being identified as a major source of risk [5][6]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted that U.S. trade policies contribute to ongoing uncertainty and fragility in the global economy [3][5]. Group 3: Resilience in Emerging Markets - Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region are showing resilience and are becoming key drivers of global growth, with significant trade growth observed in developing countries [4][8]. - The global South is increasingly important in maintaining and enhancing multilateral trade systems, with countries like China demonstrating strong economic growth and potential [7][8]. Group 4: Impact of Tariff Policies - U.S. tariffs are expected to lead to significant costs for American businesses, with estimates suggesting hundreds of billions in direct costs, affecting pricing and employment [6]. - The uncertainty created by U.S. tariffs is damaging global supply chains and reducing the attractiveness of the U.S. market for global capital [6]. Group 5: Cooperation and Trade Diversification - Countries are focusing on deepening cooperation to enhance economic resilience, with initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) being pursued in response to high tariffs [7]. - The IMF emphasizes the importance of practical cooperation among economies to reduce trade and investment barriers [7].

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has established an oil security system that holds over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency stock, which has proven crucial for protecting the global economy [1] Group 1 - The IEA's emergency stockpile is significant for maintaining oil supply stability [1] - The oil security system is a key component in safeguarding the world economy from potential disruptions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that President Trump's tariff policies are increasingly hindering global economic operations, which have historically benefited from predictable and relatively free trade [1] Group 1: Impact on Businesses - Major multinational companies and small e-commerce businesses have lowered sales targets, warned of layoffs, and are reassessing their business plans due to the tariffs [1] - The tariffs, primarily set at a baseline level of 10%, along with higher specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, are causing significant disruptions in business operations [1] Group 2: Economic Growth Expectations - Several major economies have downgraded their growth forecasts in response to weak economic data [1] - Isabelle Mateosy Lago, Chief Economist at BNP Paribas, stated that the short-term impact of U.S. tariff policies will have severe negative repercussions on the global economy [1] Group 3: Future Implications - The article suggests that the "final battle" of the tariff policies may be further away and more costly than anticipated [1]