在美国经济论坛上，有网友提出了一个尖锐的问题，直指中美贸易摩擦的核心：如果中国不肯让步，美国是否会一直加税，直到中国屈服为止？实际上，在 2025年特朗普再次上台后，关税政策再次成为了焦点。 特朗普刚上台时，就大力推行美国优先的政策，并开始对包括加拿大、墨西哥和中国在内的多个国家征收关税，声称这是为了保护本土产业。从2025年2月 起，美国对中国征收了额外的10%关税，使总税率达到了20%。到了3月4日，又宣布对所有外国汽车等产品加征10%的最低基准关税。 然而，实际情况是，美国的企业成本上涨，消费者也开始承受价格上涨的压力，通胀隐现。与此同时，中国的出口结构迅速调整，顺差在2025年11月突破了 万亿美元，商品贸易仍保持强劲势头。特朗普的团队也承认，关税并不是万能的解决办法，尤其是对半导体等关键领域，原计划加征的高关税，经过中美会 晤后推迟实施，直到2027年6月才执行，且初期税率为零，具体幅度至少提前一个月公布。尽管美方频频加码关税，本意是让中国制造业遭遇困难，但中国 的企业转向了欧洲和东南亚市场，廉价商品通过新渠道涌入欧盟，取代美国成为主要的进口目的地。 特朗普团队中的鹰派人物，如纳瓦罗，早年曾在书中猛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade dynamics between China and the United States regarding rare earth elements, highlighting that while China has resumed exports of processed rare earth products to the U.S., it continues to restrict the export of key rare earth elements essential for high-end manufacturing and defense applications [1][19]. Group 1: Rare Earth Elements vs. Processed Products - Rare earth elements are a group of 17 unique elements known for their scarcity and difficulty in extraction, while processed rare earth products are the end or semi-finished materials created through various refining and synthesis processes [3][5]. - High-performance rare earth permanent magnets, which are critical in modern industrial applications, particularly in defense and high-end manufacturing, rely on specific rare earth elements like neodymium and praseodymium [7][11]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Defense Industry - The U.S. defense sector heavily relies on high-performance rare earth permanent magnets for various applications, including advanced military equipment like the F-35 fighter jet, where the absence of these materials could hinder production [9][19]. - The U.S. Department of Defense has previously indicated that shortages of rare earth elements pose potential risks to missile production, with current stockpiles only sufficient for a few months [17][19]. Group 3: China's Strategic Export Restrictions - China's decision to maintain export restrictions on key rare earth elements is a targeted strategy aimed at the vulnerabilities within the U.S. industrial chain, particularly affecting the production of high-performance, high-temperature magnets used in advanced military equipment [13][15]. - Despite the resumption of processed rare earth product exports, U.S. companies that depend on elements like dysprosium find themselves unable to meet core production needs for high-end equipment [21][29]. Group 4: U.S. Efforts to Rebuild Supply Chain - The U.S. has attempted to restructure its rare earth supply chain by forming partnerships with countries like Australia and Malaysia, but these efforts have yet to yield tangible results [24]. - The U.S. Geological Survey has identified China's dominance in the rare earth sector as a potential threat to U.S. national security, prompting the government to support domestic rare earth companies through tax incentives and direct investments [26][28]. Group 5: Conclusion on Trade Dynamics - China's approach in this trade scenario serves as a new model for global mineral trade negotiations, balancing its core interests while leaving room for cooperation, complicating the U.S. position in the ongoing trade conflict [30].

166吨和13.2万吨，两个让国人看了都心痛的数字！ 前者是深圳口岸查出来的锑锭走私总量，后者是美国对华小麦出口里突然消失的一笔订单体量。 中方这一次没有只把怒火留在措辞层面，而是用追回的96吨稀有金属、被掐掉的13.2万吨粮食订单！ 嘴上喊合作，手里忙军售，美国这种操作不会再只收获一份抗议，维护国家安全，中方必须出手。 日前最新消息，深圳这起锑锭走私案，166吨锑锭被锁定，96吨已被追回，27人受到法律追究。 这166吨是怎么出现在走私链条里的？ 按公开信息披露的方式，大致能看出一个清晰路径：有人在境内搞货源，有人在口岸熟悉流程，然后和境外团伙对接，利用夹藏、虚假申报、伪装等手段， 把原本必须严格审批的稀有金属"化整为零"送出国门。 量小一点，容易被当成零星违规；一口气查出166吨，那就说明这不是一单两单的小动作，而是完整运作了一段时间的链条。 最尴尬的是案件发生的时间点。当前，中方一方面通过法律法规对稀土、稀有金属等实行更精细的出口管控，另一方面又在商务部层面陆续批准部分企业的 稀土通用许可，让资源在可控范围内重新参与国际分工。 表面上，是国家在根据整体利益调整节奏；暗地里，居然有人自己搭了条"黑通道"， ...

今年4月，特朗普再次出击，推出了所谓的对等关税政策，宣布对所有国家的商品加征高额关税。对中 国的关税直接调高至145%。这虽然不是特朗普第一次采取这种措施，但这次却是最为荒唐的一次。特 朗普完全忽视了现实，他以为美国优先可以再次奏效，没想到中国的反击比以往任何时候都更加精准和 充分。中国的一系列反制措施让人惊叹。 从对等关税到实施中重稀土出口管制，再到将多家美国企业列入不可靠实体清单，每一步都精准打击了 美国的要害。这些不是简单的言辞，而是真正击中了美国的痛点。稀土这一资源，并非普通金属，它是 半导体、新能源、军事装备等关键领域的核心原材料，被誉为工业的维生素。中国长期掌握着全球超过 一半的稀土出口份额。在高科技领域，美国如果想要脱钩，首先得问问自己是否还能生产出芯片。特朗 普终于意识到问题的严重性。市场早已给出了反馈，刚一开始征收146%的关税，美国股市连续三天大 幅下跌，道琼斯指数缩水近1800点。美国的农业州也提出抗议，担心失去中国市场后，几百万吨大豆将 无处可卖。 无奈之下，白宫开始做出让步。5月11日，在瑞士日内瓦，中美签署了框架协议，双方同意互相降低 115%的关税。这并不是谈判中的胜利，而是对现 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：上林下夕） 1 采购协议概述：一项突破性贸易安排的达成 2025年10月底中美元首釜山会晤后，中美大豆贸易在经历近半年"冰封期"后迎来重大转折。根据协议， 中国承诺在2025年底前采购1200万吨美国大豆，并在未来三年内每年保底采购2500万吨，三年总量达到 8700万吨。这一规模相当于美国未来三年约四分之一的大豆出口份额，对美国农业州来说无疑是一场及 时雨。 具体采购行动已于2025年11月17日至19日启动，中国买家在三天内集中采购美国大豆约160万吨，创下 2023年11月以来单周最高纪录。其中，11月17日单日采购量达79.2万吨，为2022年以来最高单日采购 量。这次采购由国有企业主导，中粮集团一次性签下84万吨（约14船），其余采购主要来自美国墨西哥 湾及太平洋西北港口，计划于2025年12月至2026年1月发运。 2 协议调整与物流现实：特朗普的灵活妥协 然而，这一宏大协议很快面临现实挑战。截至11月底，中国实际采购美豆约200万吨，仅完成原定目标 的16%。若强行在12月底前集中发运1200万吨，需动员逾150艘货轮，远超美西港口吞吐能力。同时， 中国港口大豆库存已达1 ...

特朗普的两次访华消息刚刚传出，美国政府便宣布，中国将购买8700万吨大豆，这可能意味着中美关系在明年会迎来重要的进展。 8700万吨大豆背后的中美博弈 11月24日，全球注意到中美关系的气流悄然发生变化，8700万吨这一数字的背后，不仅关乎美国数以百万计的家庭生计，也成为白宫的重要筹码。这个巨大 的采购背后，实际上是两个大国在贸易、外交和地缘政治方面的微妙较量。如果你关注美国中西部的农场，你会发现，政治家的焦虑往往比农民的感受要迟 钝。早在11月20日，大豆市场就出现了异常，14船大豆悄悄卖出，目的地是中国，这一交易是自今年1月以来规模最大的一次。 特朗普的主动示好 11月25日，美国政坛发生了一场耐人寻味的戏剧性事件。媒体纷纷炒作中方主动连线的消息，许多人以为是中国方面先做出示好，符合部分鹰派的预期。 美国财长贝森特专门出来安抚农民，反复强调按计划进行，一方面是安抚焦虑的农场主，另一方面也是为即将确定的未来三年采购计划给总统打预防针。中 方的策略很明确：三年计划，每年2500万吨采购，这不仅是一次交易，更是对未来关系的投资。 在价格上，美国的大豆并没有比巴西更具优势，甚至略高，但这笔交易的意义远超市场逻辑： ...

完整内容查看视频 中方的动作则透着稳扎稳打的战略定力。海关数据显示11月以来自美大豆进口稳步增长，但节奏始终按 部就班。这既不是对美方的妥协，也不是突发的善意，而是10月吉隆坡中美经贸磋商的既定成果，更是 国内市场的真实需求。商务部早就把话挑明，扩大贸易的前提是美方取消不合理关税，现在的采购不过 是"有来有往"的务实合作。更值得关注的是另一组并行的动作：就在大豆货轮起航的同时，中国正持续 把海外黄金运回国内，俄罗斯金融机构看得透彻，这是在冲击"全球外国黄金储备贮藏中心"的地位，要 在美元主导的金融体系里，砸下一块属于自己的硬通货基石。 贝森特那句"天然竞争对手"的表态，才算戳破了中美互动的温情面纱。这位财长的话看似矛盾，实则精 准概括了美国的对华心态：既要靠中国市场救美国农民、保英伟达这类企业的营收，又不愿放弃战略遏 制的底色。美方近期放出"考虑放开英伟达H200芯片对华出口"的风声，根本不是什么"大礼"，而是企业 逼宫后的无奈——英伟达丢不起中国市场，更怕中国被其他厂商抢占。特朗普带着大豆订单的"人情"访 华，总不能空着手，松口芯片不过是维持体面的交换。 ...

与此同时，拜登的亲信杜如松发表文章，指出特朗普在对华较量中已经处于下风。他认为，特朗普将政治作秀误认为是战略规划，在重新启动对华关税时， 既没有充分评估美国供应链的脆弱性，也没有做好国内能力的建设，因此在中国反制后，只得收回政策。同时，杜如松还称此次釜山会晤是一个转折点。他 认为，这不仅是中美双方的短期休战，更是中国展现出面对压力时的韧性，证明中国已经具备与美国平等竞争的实力。因此，杜如松指出，未来如果历史学 家回顾中美实力的变化，很可能会把特朗普发动贸易战并最终收缩政策的阶段视为关键时刻。报道称，杜如松对政策收缩的观察有事实依据。特朗普曾公开 威胁要征收高额关税，但在政策推进和实施过程中，却出现了反复和拖延。这种先威胁后收缩的模式，与杜如松所说的政治作秀非常吻合。更重要的是，特 朗普并未为自己的战略准备长远的制度配套措施，比如重建国内供应链的财政投入、长期产业政策或与盟友的协调机制等。 美国计划推迟半导体关税，拜登的亲信直言：特朗普在与中国的较量中处于下风。那么，为什么美国决定推迟这项关税？特朗普在这场对华博弈中是否真的 失去了优势？根据路透社11月19日的报道，美国政府内部人士透露，特朗普政府原本计划实施 ...

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market through the Bloomberg China Fixed Income Index series [3] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of 0.65% in October, with a year-to-date return of 0.71% [5] - The return for the China Treasury and Policy Bank Index in October was 0.66%, while the year-to-date return for the Chinese yuan measured in local currency was 0.60%, improving its ranking from 26th to 25th among 27 currencies [5] Index Performance - Long-term bonds outperformed short-term bonds in October, with returns for various maturity indices as follows: - 1-3 years: 0.28% - 3-5 years: 0.45% - 5-7 years: 0.60% - 7-10 years: 0.83% - 10+ years: 1.54% [5][7] - The China Aggregate Index level stands at 244.67, with a year-to-date return of 0.71% [7] Market Dynamics - In August, the total outflow of funds from the Chinese bond market reached 99.7 billion yuan, a decrease from the record 303.8 billion yuan in July [13] - The outflow from Chinese government bonds slowed to 14.5 billion yuan, while foreign capital outflow from negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) decreased to 67.8 billion yuan [13] - The opening of the bond repurchase market to foreign investors may help alleviate short-term outflows and support the long-term internationalization of the Chinese bond market [13] Credit Market Insights - Recent credit events in the U.S. have impacted Asian credit spreads, which widened to 66 basis points, indicating a potential risk in the market [13] - The geopolitical landscape, including U.S.-China trade tensions and the Dutch government's intervention in ASML, adds uncertainty to the global economic outlook [13]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, focusing on global economic recovery, commodity performance, and the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on investment strategies. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Recovery**: The global economy is expected to shift towards recovery, with copper projected to perform best among commodities, while gold faces a risk of price correction to around $3,500. [1][2] 2. **U.S. Treasury Rates**: U.S. Treasury rates are anticipated to remain above 4% for the 10-year bonds, with the dollar index fluctuating between 100 and 105. [1][2] 3. **Technology Sector Capital Expenditure**: U.S. technology companies' capital expenditure is a critical macro variable that will determine whether the global economy enters a recovery or recession. Continued growth in capital expenditure is likely to support economic recovery. [1][5] 4. **U.S.-China Trade Dynamics**: The trade conflict between the U.S. and China is evolving into a competition in technology and security, necessitating investors to monitor policy changes closely. [4][7] 5. **Chinese Real Estate Market**: The decline in the Chinese real estate market is expected to stabilize, but its impact on the economy and asset pricing will diminish. The focus should be on managing non-performing assets in the financial sector. [1][8][9] 6. **Chinese Stock Market Outlook**: The potential for a bull market in Chinese stocks depends on liquidity easing, industry logic support, and stable fundamentals, with PPI growth being a key indicator. [1][14] 7. **Investment Opportunities**: In the event of global recovery, commodities like copper will present significant investment opportunities, while in a recession scenario, U.S. Treasuries and gold will be favored. [2][18] Other Important Insights 1. **Impact of Subsidy Reductions**: The tapering of subsidies for home appliances and automobiles is expected to negatively affect economic growth in 2026, although its impact on capital market pricing is considered limited. [16] 2. **CPI Data and Consumer Expectations**: Recent CPI data shows seasonal volatility in food prices, with core inflation remaining stable. The overall consumer trend is expected to improve, but strong performance remains challenging. [17] 3. **Future of U.S. Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be influenced more by economic demand than by the individual chairperson's style, with a focus on maintaining growth amid trade tensions. [20] 4. **Gold Market Trends**: The outlook for gold prices is expected to decline to around $3,500 in 2026, influenced by the dynamics of technology capital expenditure and U.S. monetary policy. [23] 5. **Long-term Technology Sector Development**: The competition in the technology sector between the U.S. and China is likely to drive increased capital expenditure, fostering overall economic recovery. [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, industry trends, and investment strategies for 2026.