Group 1 - The global trade friction index for August remains high at 100, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.2% in the amount involved in trade friction measures [1] - The United States, Brazil, and Japan have the highest trade friction indices among 20 monitored countries, with the U.S. maintaining the top position for 14 consecutive months [1] - The electronics industry has the highest trade friction index among 13 major industries, indicating significant conflict points in sectors such as electronics, transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and light industry [1] Group 2 - The number of U.S. exhibitors at the Chain Expo has increased by 15% compared to the previous year, continuing to lead in the number of foreign exhibitors [4] - Over 3,500 Chinese companies have participated in more than 50 professional exhibitions in the U.S. from January to October, covering various sectors including electronics, textiles, and pharmaceuticals [5] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) has facilitated over 100 activities under the China-U.S. Enterprise Cooperation Project, benefiting nearly 3,000 companies [5] Group 3 - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total import and export value with ASEAN reached 5.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, maintaining ASEAN as China's largest trading partner [6] - The CCPIT has organized multiple delegations to ASEAN countries for trade negotiations, with significant participation in various forums and summits [6][7] - The number of RCEP certificates issued and the corresponding visa amounts have increased by 25.57% and 24.01% respectively, enhancing trade dynamics between China and RCEP member countries [7]

Core Insights - The latest global trade friction index released by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade indicates that the index remains at a high level as of August 2023, with a composite index value of 100 [1] Summary by Category Global Trade Friction Index - The global trade friction index for August 2023 is reported at 100, indicating sustained high levels of trade friction [1] - The monetary value of global trade friction measures has decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 15.2% month-on-month, yet remains at elevated levels [1] Country-Specific Insights - Among the 20 monitored countries and regions, the United States, Brazil, and Japan have the highest global trade friction indices [1] - The United States has maintained the highest level of trade friction measures for 14 consecutive months [1] Industry-Specific Insights - Trade friction measures are concentrated in five main industries: electronics, transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and light industry, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [1] - The import and export tariff measures index ranks first among five sub-index measures, highlighting its role as a primary tool for countries to protect domestic industries and adjust industrial structures [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metal market maintains an oscillating upward trend, with the price movements of gold and silver showing phased differentiation. Driven by the sentiment of repairing the gold - silver ratio, the performance of silver is significantly stronger than that of gold. The US initial jobless claims data is better than expected, indicating the resilience of the labor market. The annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high. The core PCE year - on - year rose to 2.6%, slightly higher than expected, showing that inflation remains sticky. The US dollar index rebounded for two consecutive days, stabilizing above the 98 mark, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.2%. The short - term rebound of the US dollar may suppress the precious metal market. There are differences within the Fed on the future monetary policy path. The ETFs of gold and silver in the external market recorded large net inflows, and the market bullish sentiment remains high. It is recommended to conduct interval band trading and pay attention to short - term correction risks [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 866.52 yuan/gram, with a week - on - week increase of 10.46; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 10939 yuan/kilogram, with a week - on - week increase of 307. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 263220 lots, a decrease of 1085; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 508967 lots, a decrease of 35265. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 167719 lots, an increase of 2252; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 98895 lots, a decrease of 14959 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 68628 kilograms, an increase of 2802; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1189648 kilograms, an increase of 31382. The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 857.03 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.04; the spot price of silver is 10770 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 275. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 9.49 yuan/gram, a decrease of - 6.42; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 169 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of - 32 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 1005.72 tons, an increase of 8.87; the silver ETF holdings are 15361.84 tons, a decrease of 28.23. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266749 contracts, an increase of 339; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 52276 contracts, an increase of 738. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.38%, a decrease of 0.71; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.45%, a decrease of 0.1. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.59%, a decrease of 0.94; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.58%, a decrease of 0.95 [3] 3.5 Industry News - Trump will meet with the four leaders of Congress on Monday due to the approaching risk of the US government shutdown. Goldman Sachs analysts said that the risk of the US economy re - accelerating is rising. Affected by the US tariff policy adjustment, the global economic and trade frictions have heated up again, and the global economic and trade friction index in July was 110, at a high level. The amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures increased by 6.6% year - on - year and 27.6% month - on - month, with the US having the largest amount involved [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a complex situation with different trends in various segments including futures, spot, upstream, and downstream markets. Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as policy, supply - demand balance, and international economic data. Different types of aluminum products (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and casting aluminum alloy) have their own supply - demand characteristics, and the report suggests light - position oscillatory trading in all cases while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,730 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was 20 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main contract position was 203,858 lots, down 8,862 lots; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,649 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 517,700 tons, up 1,775 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.83, up 0.04 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,904 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was - 37 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main contract position was 292,517 lots, down 13,932 lots [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract was 20,270 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was - 90 yuan, down 65 yuan; the main contract position was 11,805 lots, down 28 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 20,830 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 40 yuan, down 65 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium/discount was - 30 yuan, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 4.7 dollars/ton, down 2.6 dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price was 2,895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 9 yuan, down 8 yuan [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy was 630 yuan, down 80 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly production was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the national monthly opening rate was 82.93%, down 1.09 percentage points; the monthly demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the monthly supply - demand balance was 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons; the export volume was 18 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import volume was 9.44 million tons, down 3.16 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 16,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price in Shandong was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import volume was 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export volume was 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly import volume was 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons; the export volume was 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the opening rate was 98.11%, up 0.33 percentage points; the social inventory was 56.70 million tons, down 3.10 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products was 53 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The monthly output was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the total built - up production capacity was 126 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly output was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate prosperity index was 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 6.24%, down 0.22 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.05%, unchanged; the call - put ratio was 1.17, down 0.0227; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money option was slightly decreased [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Eight departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metal Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metal industry and about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026 [2]. - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, with the US, EU, and Brazil ranking in the top three [2]. - The US August core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased for the third consecutive month [2]. - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 46929.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year [2]. 3.8 Views on Different Aluminum Products - **Alumina**: The main contract shows an oscillatory trend with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the demand will increase slightly. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main contract oscillates weakly with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will be boosted. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract oscillates weakly with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply growth will slow down, and the demand will increase. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On September 29, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,154.0, down 4.98%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1,422, equivalent to 1,202 on the futures market. With the continuous recovery of mine capacity utilization rate for three weeks and some coal types rebounding, the operating rate of independent coal washing plants continued to rise. The cumulative growth rate of imports has been declining for three consecutive months, and inventories have rebounded for two consecutive weeks with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 29, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,647.0, down 4.16%. After the second - round price cut of coke was implemented, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the current hot metal output is 2.4236 million tons, an increase of 0.0134 million tons, and the hot metal output is fluctuating at a high level. Coke inventories are higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 34 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1,154.00 yuan/ton, down 42.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1,647.00 yuan/ton, down 45.50 yuan. The JM futures contract open interest was 825,807.00 lots, down 80,954.00 lots; the J futures contract open interest was 50,959.00 lots, down 1,729.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 121,941.00 lots, up 15,608.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 5,112.00 lots, up 948.00 lots [2]. - The JM5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 85.50 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the J5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 143.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 1,690.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1,040.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 151.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,750.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coke at Tianjin Port Grade - 1 was 1,570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 116.00 yuan/ton, up 42.50 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was 18.00 yuan/ton, up 45.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 275,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 3.107 million tons, up 63,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.01%. The raw coal output was 39.0497 million tons, up 0.951 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4.274 million tons, up 0.713 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 194,000 tons, up 4,100 tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 4.9685 million tons, down 0.1847 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 2.5726 million tons, down 0.0354 million tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9907 million tons, up 0.5866 million tons; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 0.6304 million tons, down 0.0337 million tons. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills was 7.9607 million tons, up 0.0573 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 steel mills was 6.6131 million tons, up 0.1664 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.89 days, up 0.15 days; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills was 11.66 days, up 0.24 days. The import volume of coking coal was 1.01622 million tons, up 0.0555 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.055 million tons, down 0.034 million tons [2]. - The output of coking coal was 4.08938 million tons, up 0.025 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.43%, down 0.44%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton. The output of coke was 4.2597 million tons, up 0.0742 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation (National) - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, up 0.47%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.88%, up 0.50%. The crude steel output was 7.73686 million tons, down 0.22896 million tons [2]. Industry News - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, at a high level. The US, the EU, and Brazil had the highest global economic and trade friction indices among 20 monitored countries (regions), and the US had the largest amount of global economic and trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [2]. - The eight - department joint plan aims for the average annual growth of the added value of the non - ferrous metal industry to be around 5% and the average annual growth of the output of ten non - ferrous metals to be around 1.5% from 2025 - 2026. It also emphasizes resource exploration and the innovation of advanced materials [2]. - The draft resolution proposed by Russia and China to extend the sanctions exemption for Iran was not passed in the UN Security Council. The UK representative said that the UN will re - impose sanctions on Iran on Saturday, and Iran warned that the West should bear the consequences [2]. - The automobile trade - in subsidy policy in Jiangsu Province was suspended at 24:00 on September 28, 2025 [2].

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 181.7 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations [1] - The overnight and 7-day Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) slightly decreased, while the 14-day Shibor fell by over 10 basis points [1][2] Shibor Rates - As of September 28, the overnight Shibor decreased by 0.70 basis points to 1.3140%, the 7-day Shibor fell by 0.40 basis points to 1.4970%, and the 14-day Shibor dropped by 10.90 basis points to 1.5370% [2] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, the 7-day rates increased while the 14-day rates significantly decreased. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 0.6 basis points and 1.2 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates rose by 2.4 basis points and 8.4 basis points [4] Market Conditions - On September 28, due to a holiday adjustment, most non-bank institutions were absent, leading to a relaxed funding environment. Overnight repo rates were around 1.45%, while rates for credit and certificates of deposit were between 1.90% and 1.95% [8] - A total of 44 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 107.74 billion yuan [8] Secondary Market Activity - Trading sentiment in the secondary market was relatively quiet due to the holiday adjustment, with prices remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The 1-month national bank stock ended at 1.66%, unchanged from the previous day [9]

Core Insights - The global trade friction index increased from 92 in June to 110 in July, indicating a rise in trade tensions [1] - The monetary value of global trade friction measures rose by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month in July [1] - The United States, European Union, and Brazil ranked as the top three countries (regions) in the global trade friction index [1] Summary by Category - **Global Trade Friction Index** - The index reached a high level of 110 in July, up from 92 in June [1] - **Monetary Impact** - The amount involved in global trade friction measures increased by 6.6% compared to the previous year and by 27.6% compared to the previous month [1] - **Country Rankings** - The United States has the highest monetary involvement in global trade friction measures, maintaining this position for 13 consecutive months [1]

Core Insights - The global trade friction index reached 110 in July, indicating a high level of trade tensions, with trade friction measures involving an amount that increased by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month [1] By Country - Among 20 monitored countries and regions, the United States, European Union, and Brazil had the highest global trade friction indices, with the U.S. leading in trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [1] By Industry - The main industries affected by trade friction include electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, machinery, pharmaceuticals, light industry, and non-ferrous metals, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [1] China-related Trade Friction - The trade friction index related to China among 19 countries and regions was 107, indicating a high level of tension, with the U.S. having the highest index. Key sectors include drones, solar cells, and AI chips [1] - In July, the amount involved in trade friction measures related to China decreased by 16.4% year-on-year but increased by 11.9% month-on-month [1]

Core Insights - The global trade friction index reached 110 in July, indicating a high level of trade tensions influenced by the U.S. adjusting its tariff policies [1] - The monetary value of global trade friction measures increased by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month [1] Country Analysis - Among 20 monitored countries and regions, the U.S., EU, and Brazil have the highest global trade friction indices, with the U.S. leading in the monetary value of trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [1] Industry Analysis - The trade friction measures are concentrated in 13 major industries, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [1] - Other affected industries include chemicals, transportation equipment, machinery, pharmaceuticals, light industry, and non-ferrous metals [1] Specific Measures - A total of 76 import and export tariff measures were reported across the 20 monitored countries and regions, along with 19 trade remedy investigations [1] - There were 134 notifications submitted to the WTO regarding technical barriers to trade (TBT) and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), 32 import and export restrictions, and 197 other restrictive measures [1] - The import and export tariff measures index is the highest among five categories of sub-indices, serving as a key bargaining chip in international trade negotiations [1]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need to strengthen support for enterprises going abroad and improve the overseas comprehensive service system [2][3] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) reports an increase in the willingness of Chinese enterprises to expand internationally, with a significant rise in the number of business groups going abroad for negotiations [2][3] - Since 2024, the CCPIT has organized 2,249 batches of groups to visit 102 countries and regions, averaging six business groups traveling abroad daily for discussions [2][3] Group 2 - The CCPIT plans to enhance service resources across legal, financial, and logistics sectors, and establish comprehensive service ports and stations in key countries [3][4] - The CCPIT has approved 1,623 overseas exhibition projects this year, with a planned exhibition area of 950,000 square meters, and has executed 970 projects involving over 34,000 participating enterprises [4] - The CCPIT has established partnerships with international organizations to enhance legal services for enterprises, handling over 400 foreign-related cases and 6,570 mediation cases this year [4][5] Group 3 - The CCPIT has organized multiple training sessions for enterprises going abroad and has responded to over 20,000 inquiries through its trade law service [5] - The global economic and trade friction index reached 110 in July, indicating a high level of trade tensions, particularly influenced by U.S. tariff policy adjustments [6] - The CCPIT reports that the trade friction measures involving 20 monitored countries have increased by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month [6][7]