Key Insights - The report indicates that the results of the China-US trade negotiations and the marginal weakening of the macro economy are expected to lead to a continuation of high-level fluctuations in the market, rather than a signal for an adjustment in industrial prosperity [2][3] - The internal diffusion and high-cut-low phenomenon are ongoing, presenting a good opportunity for positioning in the AI industry [2][6] - Key sectors with performance support include energy storage/batteries, military industry, storage, and engineering machinery [2][49] Market Perspectives - The ongoing US government shutdown has led to increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a high probability of a rate cut in December [3][12] - Recent data shows a slowdown in the US job market, which aligns with concerns expressed by the Federal Reserve Chairman [14][13] - The October export data showed a decline due to fewer working days and high base effects, with expectations of a slight negative growth in the fourth quarter [4][17][18] Industry Configuration - The report emphasizes that the internal and external diffusion observed does not indicate the end of the first phase of industrial prosperity, as historical trends show that strong sectors often remain robust without significant internal diffusion [6][28] - The AI industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on sectors such as computing power and applications, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [47][48] - Other sectors with solid performance support include energy storage, military, storage, and engineering machinery, which are anticipated to benefit from ongoing demand and market conditions [49][51]

Core Viewpoint - China's exports experienced a decline in October, marking a continued downturn with shipments to the U.S. falling for the seventh consecutive month [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In October, China's total exports decreased, reflecting ongoing challenges in the global market [1] - Shipments to the U.S. have seen a consistent decline, indicating a prolonged period of reduced demand from one of China's largest trading partners [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The decline in exports may signal broader economic issues within China, potentially affecting GDP growth and trade balances [1] - Continued decreases in exports to the U.S. could lead to increased scrutiny on trade policies and economic relations between the two countries [1]

Export Data Overview - In October, China's exports (in USD) recorded a year-on-year decline of -1.1%, down from +8.3% in September, marking the first negative growth since March 2025[3] - Exports to the US saw a significant drop of -25.2%, slightly improving from September's -27.0%[3] - Exports to ASEAN maintained resilience with a growth rate of +11.0%, down from +15.6% in September[3] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU grew by only +0.9%, a sharp decline from +14.2% in September[3] - Exports to Africa and Latin America still showed positive growth but decreased significantly, from +56.4% and +15.2% in September to +10.5% and +2.1% respectively[3] Product Category Insights - Labor-intensive products like clothing, bags, and footwear experienced substantial declines, with growth rates of -16.0%, -25.7%, and -21.0% respectively[3] - High-tech manufacturing exports remained strong, with mobile phone exports dropping from -1.7% in September to -16.6% in October, while integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships recorded growth rates of +26.9%, +34.0%, and +68.4% respectively[3] Seasonal and Trade Relationship Factors - October's export data reflects seasonal trends, with a historical average month-on-month decline of -3.8% due to the National Day holiday[3] - The easing of US-EU trade tensions has contributed to the decline in exports to the EU, with a month-on-month decrease of -8.6% in October[3] - The phenomenon of "export rush" appears to be waning, impacting growth rates to ASEAN and other emerging markets[3] Future Outlook and Risks - There is a potential risk of further decline in export growth rates in Q4, with the possibility of turning negative due to higher base effects in November and December[3] - Ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade relations and a potential slowdown in global economic growth pose additional risks to export performance[3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report type: Stock index daily review [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook Market Review - On October 16, the Wind All A index declined with shrinking volume, down 0.44%, and over 4,000 stocks fell. CSI 300 and SSE 50 rose 0.26% and 0.59% respectively, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell 0.86% and 1.09% respectively. Blue - chip stocks performed better. In index futures, IF and IH rose 0.30% and 0.72% respectively, while IC and IM fell 1.10% and 0.96% respectively [6] Market Outlook - The US intends to extend the suspension of tariffs on China in exchange for China delaying rare - earth export controls. China has stated its stance. Before the APEC meeting, Sino - US game intensifies. China's September export data shows resilience, but exports to the US decline. Due to the high base last year, export year - on - year data may face pressure in Q4. The low - valuation advantage of A - shares has disappeared, and the high valuation of the technology sector brings risks. Tariff disturbances may not end soon, and market volatility may continue. In the short term, an arbitrage strategy of long large - cap blue - chips and short small - cap growth stocks can be used. In the short - term, attention can be paid to defensive sectors such as banks, gas, and power, as well as new infrastructure and domestic substitution sectors. As the Fourth Plenary Session approaches, the market style may turn to technology growth [7] Group 3: Industry News - On October 16, the central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan. The Ministry of Commerce will work on releasing policy effectiveness, promoting trade, and deepening trade cooperation, including implementing existing policies, providing services to foreign - trade enterprises, and preparing new policies [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] 2. Research Analysts - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On October 14, the Wind All - A Index opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing up 0.17%, with over 3,500 stocks falling. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 1.20%, 0.21%, 2.46%, and 1.95% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. Stock index futures performed weaker than the spot market. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 1.21%, 0.11%, 3.06%, and 2.19% respectively [6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Tensions between China and the US have significantly eased after extensive communication over the weekend. The US Vice - President Vance said Trump is willing to negotiate on tariffs, and the US Treasury Secretary Besent said a 100% tariff on China may not happen. However, the US is open to all options regarding China's rare - earth export restrictions. - China's export data in September showed resilience, but exports to the US continued to decline. Given the high base due to the export rush at the end of last year, China's export year - on - year data in Q4 may face pressure. - For the A - share market, the previous low - valuation advantage has disappeared after a six - month rise, and the high valuation of the technology sector brings higher risks. The Sino - US game is mainly for the end - of - month negotiation, and China's attitude is more proactive and tough. Therefore, tariff disturbances may not subside soon, and market volatility is likely to continue. - It is recommended to participate with a light position and use arbitrage strategies to resist market risks, such as going long on large - cap blue - chips and short on small - cap growth stocks. In terms of market style, attention can be paid to defensive sectors like banks, gas, and power, as well as new infrastructure and domestic substitution sectors that benefit from policies [7]. 4. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including domestic major index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of Wind All - A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, and statistics of major ETF fund shares and trading volume. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][15][16][17][24] 5. Industry News - On October 14, the central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net investment of 91 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchases due that day [25]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated China's consistent stance on the tariff and trade war: ready to fight to the end if necessary and always open to negotiation. China and the US have broad common interests, and the two sides have been communicating within the framework of the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation mechanism, with a working - level meeting held the previous day [25]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investments in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", which supports energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries such as power, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery, as well as in infrastructure and central and state - owned institutions [25].

Market Overview - A-share market trading activity has decreased, with a slight decline in transaction volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating that incremental capital has not yet formed a consistent expectation in the short term, leading to a wide fluctuation in the market [1][4] - The overall A-share market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with notable sector rotation. Benefiting from interest rate cut expectations and "anti-involution" policies, sectors such as electric power equipment and non-ferrous metals have seen substantial gains, while previously high-performing sectors like computers and communications have shown weakness [1] Economic Indicators - In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year in USD terms, below the expected 5.9% and previous value of 7.2%. Imports grew by 1.3%, also below expectations [1] - The decline in exports to the US has intensified, with a drop of 33.1% in August, negatively impacting total exports by 5.1 percentage points, while exports to the EU and ASEAN exceeded previous values [1] Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - In August, China's CPI growth remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease to -0.4%. The PPI growth shifted from a decline to flat, with a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline [2] - Prices of pork and eggs have shown lower-than-seasonal increases, while some food prices continue to decline, affecting non-food items [2] Infrastructure and Real Estate - High-frequency data for August indicates a slight increase in the year-on-year growth rate of petroleum asphalt and cement shipments. The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 300 billion yuan for the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, which will support infrastructure growth [3] - In the real estate sector, first-tier city housing prices have declined more than those in second and third-tier cities, with sales of commercial housing in 30 cities in August still needing improvement [3] Consumer Behavior - The retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods in August is expected to moderate. The previous year's "old-for-new" subsidy funds have been gradually distributed, but this year faces a high base environment and increased consumer sensitivity to price changes [3] Global Economic Context - Recent expectations for overseas interest rate cuts have risen, with the US adding only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, below the expected 75,000 and previous 79,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021 [4] - Following the employment data release, the dollar index and US bond yields fell, while gold, US stocks, and copper prices surged. Market sentiment has shifted towards recession, with an increased probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times this year [4]

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices are fluctuating, while copper and gold are trending upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New home sales are experiencing a larger decline, while automobile sales are also retreating; however, summer entertainment consumption is showing signs of improvement [2] - In July, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while the drop in second-hand home sales narrowed. The market is undergoing adjustments, and the growth rate of passenger car sales is slowing down, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales increasing [2] - The box office revenue for summer films has significantly improved, with total box office surpassing 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.4% [2] External Demand - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has seen lower increases in tariffs for major economies like the EU and Japan compared to April, with China's tariffs being postponed for another three months [3] - Additional conditions require major economies to commit to investments in the U.S. and purchase energy products, with an extra 40% tariff on re-exporting countries like Vietnam targeting China [4] - July exports may see a slight decline, with a decrease in shipping weight and a drop in shipping volume to the U.S. [5] Production - The willingness to reduce production remains limited, with steel mill profits continuing to rise, leading to an increase in production [6] - Pork prices have decreased due to increased market supply, while the overall willingness to cut production remains low [7] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants is expected to rise in July, despite a temporary decrease due to weather conditions [7] Prices - Commodity prices have generally declined, with domestic rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices continuing to rise, while cement prices have decreased [8] - Gold prices are under pressure due to a softer tariff environment and the Federal Reserve's stance, while oil prices are supported by geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand [8] Follow-up Focus - Future attention will be on export data and price data [9]

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's exports in June amounted to 6.63 billion NZD, with the previous value revised from 7.68 billion NZD to 7.5 billion NZD [1] Group 1 - June exports reached 6.63 billion NZD [1] - The prior export value was adjusted from 7.68 billion NZD to 7.5 billion NZD [1]

Core Insights - South Korea's exports in July experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, a significant drop from the previous value of 8.3% [1] Group 1 - The export performance indicates a potential slowdown in South Korea's trade activities [1] - The decline in exports may reflect broader economic challenges faced by the country [1] - The previous year's strong export growth of 8.3% sets a high comparative benchmark, making the current decline more pronounced [1]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's exports in June experienced a year-on-year decline of 3.5%, contrasting with institutional expectations of a 5.5% growth [1] Group 1 - The actual export performance fell short of expectations, indicating potential challenges in the Malaysian export sector [1] - The decline in exports may reflect broader economic conditions affecting trade dynamics [1]