戴丹苗（国信证券经济研究所分析师） 此外，公募REITs与主流资产的弱相关性特征，使其成为优化投资组合的重要工具。2025年以来，中证 REITs指数与沪深300、10年期国债、黄金、中证红利股均呈现弱相关或极弱相关特征，相关系数分别 为-0.07、0.14、0.21、0.17，核心源于各类资产的收益驱动逻辑、市场环境适配性及资金偏好的本质差 异。中证REITs与沪深300因上半年和下半年的阶段性反向走势对冲，形成极弱负相关；与10年期国债 虽受利率波动存在阶段性弱联动，但前者兼具债性与底层资产运营属性，后者为纯债性资产，属性差异 削弱了相关性；与黄金仅在二季度避险资金驱动下形成短期共振，但黄金受全球宏观因素影响、REITs 聚焦国内实体资产与政策支持，核心驱动因素不同导致弱正相关；与红利股虽因共同的稳定分红属性吸 引长期资金形成弱关联基础，但前者收益依赖底层资产运营现金流，受政策扩容驱动明显，后者受企业 经营周期与权益市场波动影响更大，逻辑差异拉低了相关性。 四年蝶变启新程，中国公募REITs市场已从试点探索迈入规模化发展的新阶段。政策层面的持续加码， 底层资产的不断扩围，配置价值的日益凸显，共同构成了市场 ...

股票型基金成为ETF发行主力。数据显示，今年以来发行股票型ETF达283只，占到发行总量的87.89%，合计 发行份额达1493.95亿份，占到总份额的61.07%。具体来看，其中以被动指数型基金为主，发行数量达265 只，而增强指数型基金仅18只。 紧随其后的是债券型基金。数据显示，今年以来发行32只债券型ETF，占到发行总量的9.94%，合计发行份额 为914.83亿份，占到总份额的37.39%。此外，QDII基金尽管发行数量有限，但市场接受度较高。数据显示， 今年以来虽然仅发行7只QDII基金，合计发行份额仅37.67亿份，但截止日份额达100.52亿份，呈现出明显的 超募现象，反映出投资者对海外市场投资工具的需求较为旺盛。 在政策推动、产品特性、投资者偏好等多方面因素影响下，交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）市场规模不断提 升。截至2025年12月15日，ETF总规模已从年初的约3.73万亿元激增至约5.74万亿元，年内规模增长超2万亿 元，增速超过53%。 ETF市场的发展离不开政策助力，近年来，相关支持政策频出。2024年4月发布的新"国九条"提出，建立交易 型开放式指数基金快速审批通道，推动指数化投 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses strategies to improve the success rate of new stock subscriptions and the certainty of returns on the first day of listing [1][3] Group 1: Strategies for Improving Subscription Success Rate - Effective fund management is crucial to ensure sufficient capital for new stock subscriptions, as excessive funds may lower the success rate due to allocation based on subscription quantity [1] - Staying informed about new stock information, including company fundamentals, industry outlook, and financial status, aids in assessing investment value and enhances subscription success probability [3] - Choosing the right subscription timing by analyzing historical data and market trends can help avoid peak periods, typically selecting a time frame from two days before the issuance to the subscription day [3] Group 2: Techniques to Enhance First-Day Return Certainty - Utilizing multiple accounts for subscription can increase the chances of success if conditions permit [3] - Participating in offline subscriptions generally yields a higher success rate due to the larger participation of institutional and major individual investors [3] - Understanding market sentiment is vital, as positive market conditions encourage more investors to subscribe, thereby increasing success rates [3] Group 3: Long-Term Investment Considerations - Long-term holding of fundamentally strong companies with growth potential can yield satisfactory returns, even if the initial subscription success rate is low [3] - Diversifying investments across different stocks or sectors can mitigate risks and enhance overall return certainty [3] - Continuous monitoring of market performance post-listing is essential, as both first-day performance and subsequent market behavior are critical for strategy adjustments [3] Group 4: Knowledge and Experience Sharing - Learning investment knowledge and exchanging experiences with other investors can elevate overall investment skills, thereby improving subscription success rates and first-day return certainty [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment has led to increased volatility in the A-share market, with technology stocks experiencing significant pullbacks, making multi-asset FOF products an attractive option for investors seeking stability [1][2]. Group 1: Multi-Asset FOF Benefits - Multi-asset allocation effectively responds to economic cycle fluctuations, helping to mitigate risks and smooth out portfolio volatility by including assets with low correlations [2][5]. - FOF funds aim to balance returns and drawdowns by diversifying across low-correlation assets, enhancing the Sharpe ratio while minimizing portfolio drawdowns [3][6]. - The FOF index has shown a 12.96% increase from November 1, 2020, to October 31, 2025, outperforming both the equity fund index and the CSI 300 index during downturns [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and FOF Growth - As of September 30, 2023, public FOF shares increased by 35.3 billion shares (27% growth) and the scale rose by 54.6 billion yuan (41% growth), indicating market recognition of FOF products for risk diversification [4]. - The evolution of FOF has transitioned from a focus on selecting stock funds to a comprehensive asset allocation tool across various categories and markets [4][5]. Group 3: Professional Management and Strategy - FOFs are managed by professional fund managers who conduct in-depth market research and adjust allocations based on macroeconomic conditions [6][8]. - The investment philosophy emphasizes absolute returns, focusing on controlling risks from asset valuation, price volatility, and macroeconomic factors [8][10]. - The recent performance of the Guotai Minze Balanced Pension Target Three-Year Holding Period FOF achieved a 13.52% return over the past year, exceeding its benchmark by 5.29% [8][10]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a slight contraction around the 4000-point mark, with a shift from extreme differentiation to balance, suggesting a stable medium-term upward trend despite short-term adjustments [10][11]. - The conclusion of major events and the release of quarterly reports are expected to reduce uncertainty, allowing for new investment opportunities in quality assets [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the popularity of gold ETFs has increased significantly, driven by rising gold prices and growing investor participation in the gold market [1][2] - According to State Street Global Advisors, as of August 31, 2025, the total amount of gold held by global gold ETFs ranks second only to the United States [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong-listed gold ETFs increased by 183% year-on-year, reaching HKD 112 million, while the assets under management grew by 45% to HKD 15 billion [1] Group 2 - Over the past 20 years, gold has outperformed other major assets, with a price increase of nearly nine times, compared to less than four times for global stocks [1] - Gold demand is primarily driven by four categories: jewelry, investment, central banks, and technology applications, with jewelry consumption accounting for 44% of global gold demand in 2024 [1] - Gold is generally considered a low-correlation asset with stocks and bonds, providing stability during market volatility and serving as an effective hedge against inflation [2] Group 3 - Investing in Hong Kong-listed gold ETFs offers several advantages, including high liquidity, low entry barriers, and no need for storage or insurance arrangements [2] - Gold ETFs are regulated investment products that provide transparency through regular disclosures of holdings and fund performance, offering protection for investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Index funds are increasingly favored by investors due to their characteristics of being "easy, cost-effective, and low-effort" amidst heightened market volatility and the frequent occurrence of "champion curse" among fund managers [1] Group 1: Advantages of Index Funds - Broad Selection Range: Index funds cover a wider range than actively managed funds, allowing investors to choose freely. The automatic rebalancing of indices helps eliminate underperforming companies and include new quality firms [1] - Low Transaction Costs: The management fee for index funds typically ranges from 0.15% to 0.5%, compared to 0.8% to 1.5% for actively managed funds. For a principal of 100,000, a lower fee can accumulate approximately 34,000 more in returns over 20 years at an 8% annual return [2][3] - Risk Diversification: Index funds invest in a basket of stocks, effectively avoiding "black swan" risks associated with individual stocks. For instance, a certain actively managed fund fell 40% due to heavy exposure to education stocks, while an index fund tracking the CSI 500 only dropped 2% during the same period [5] - High Transparency: The holdings of index funds are publicly available daily, adhering strictly to the index's component stock ratios, which mitigates the risk of "style drift" seen in actively managed funds [6] Group 2: Suitable Investor Types - Dollar-Cost Averaging Investors: The passive tracking nature of index funds aligns perfectly with the strategy of dollar-cost averaging, allowing investors to benefit from long-term market trends [10] - New Investors: Index funds serve as a "pitfall avoidance tool" for newcomers, offering a straightforward strategy without the need for in-depth analysis of fund managers or financial statements [11] - Long-Term Investors: The returns of index funds are closely tied to macroeconomic performance, with historical data showing that as long as the economy grows, indices will trend upward [12][13] - Busy Professionals: Index funds are a time-efficient choice for busy individuals, allowing for automatic investments without the need for constant market monitoring [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investment portfolios beyond stocks and bonds by considering commodity ETFs, which can provide opportunities to mitigate risks and capture investment potential in various commodities related to daily life [1]. Group 1: What is Commodity ETF? - Commodity ETFs are funds that track the price movements of commodities such as gold, copper, and soybeans, allowing investors to gain exposure without directly buying physical assets [3]. Group 2: Reasons to Consider Commodity ETFs - Commodity ETFs offer convenience compared to physical assets, with lower entry barriers, simpler operations, and flexible trading options [4]. - They help in risk diversification as commodity price movements may not correlate with stocks and bonds, potentially reducing overall portfolio volatility [4]. - They provide access to investment opportunities in long-term trends, such as global energy transitions, which may not be fully captured by traditional stock and bond investments [4]. Group 3: Types of Commodity ETFs - Gold ETFs can serve as a hedge against stock market volatility and inflation, allowing investors to benefit from gold price increases without holding physical gold [6]. - Agricultural commodities like wheat and corn, as well as economic crops like soybeans and cotton, exhibit high volatility but have low correlation with stocks and bonds over the long term, making them suitable for differentiated portfolio allocation [7]. Group 4: Considerations for Investing in Commodity ETFs - Commodity assets may experience greater short-term volatility compared to stocks and bonds, necessitating a strong understanding of the supply and demand dynamics and influencing factors of different commodities [10][11]. - Commodity investments are non-yielding assets, meaning they do not generate interest or dividends; returns primarily come from price changes [11]. Group 5: Conclusion - Overall, commodity ETFs can enrich investment choices beyond stocks and bonds, with categories like gold, non-ferrous metals, energy, and agricultural products each offering unique characteristics that can enhance portfolio diversification [12].

Core Insights - The importance of spot gold investment is increasingly highlighted as a traditional safe-haven asset in the current complex global economic landscape [1][4] - Spot gold investment serves as an effective means for asset preservation and appreciation, especially during economic downturns, political instability, or currency devaluation [1][4] Importance of Spot Gold Investment - Spot gold investment is significant for its value preservation, as gold's scarcity and wide acceptance allow it to maintain value during crises [1][3] - Gold acts as a risk diversification tool, effectively lowering overall risk when included in an investment portfolio due to its low correlation with other asset classes [1][3] Advantages of Spot Gold Investment - Spot gold investment offers high liquidity, enabling investors to easily buy or sell gold, facilitating quick capital turnover [3] - The transparency and simplicity of spot gold trading allow real-time market price reflection, aiding investors in making swift trading decisions [3] Advantages of Leading Gold Trading Platforms - Leading gold trading platforms, such as LPM, are recognized for their regulatory compliance and extensive industry experience, providing a secure trading environment [3] - These platforms utilize advanced technology to offer real-time market data and fast execution speeds, ensuring timely investor responses [3] - Comprehensive market analysis tools and educational resources are available to enhance investor trading skills and market understanding [3] Customer Service Excellence - Leading platforms provide professional and attentive customer service, with 24/7 online support to assist users with technical issues or trading inquiries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investment portfolios beyond traditional stocks and bonds by considering commodity ETFs, which can provide unique investment opportunities and risk mitigation [1]. Group 1: What is Commodity ETF? - Commodity ETFs are funds that track the price movements of commodities such as gold, copper, and soybeans, allowing investors to gain exposure without directly buying physical assets [3]. Group 2: Reasons to Consider Commodity ETFs - Commodity ETFs offer convenience compared to physical assets, with lower entry barriers, simpler operations, and flexible trading options [4]. - They help in risk diversification as commodity price movements may not correlate with stocks and bonds, potentially reducing overall portfolio volatility [4]. - Long-term trends, such as global energy transitions, present investment opportunities that traditional asset classes may not fully capture [4]. Group 3: Types of Commodity ETFs - Gold ETFs can hedge against stock market volatility and inflation, allowing investors to benefit from gold price increases without holding physical gold [6]. - Agricultural commodities like wheat and corn, as well as economic crops like soybeans and cotton, exhibit high volatility but have low correlation with stocks and bonds over the long term, making them suitable for differentiated portfolio allocation [7]. Group 4: Considerations for Investing in Commodity ETFs - Commodity assets may experience greater short-term volatility compared to stocks and bonds, necessitating a strong understanding of the supply-demand dynamics and influencing factors [10][11]. - Commodity investments do not generate interest or dividends; returns primarily come from price differences [11]. - Overall, commodity ETFs can enrich investment choices beyond stocks and bonds, with categories like gold, non-ferrous metals, energy, and agricultural products each offering distinct characteristics for asset allocation [12].

Core Insights - A50 Real-time Index Futures serve as a vital bridge for global investors to access China's core assets and gain insights into the Chinese economy [1][4] - The underlying FTSE China A50 Index includes 50 leading A-share companies with significant market capitalization and liquidity, spanning key sectors such as finance, consumption, technology, and energy [1] - The trading hours of A50 Real-time Index Futures are a notable feature, allowing nearly seamless trading from Monday to Friday, which aligns closely with A-share trading hours and covers active periods in European and American markets [1] Trading Advantages - The price discovery function of A50 Real-time Index Futures is enhanced by its trading hours that span multiple global markets, allowing it to react promptly to international events and economic data [2] - A50 Real-time Index Futures act as a "barometer" for market expectations, providing valuable forward-looking signals to A-share investors and global market participants [2] Investment Opportunities - For global investors, A50 Real-time Index Futures offer an efficient tool to participate in China's economic growth, overcoming barriers that limit direct access to the A-share market [4] - The correlation between A50 Real-time Index Futures and the CSI 300 Index is as high as 0.8, indicating a strong relationship, while also often leading in response to market movements [4] - A50 Real-time Index Futures feature a more balanced industry distribution compared to the SSE 50 Index, showcasing greater resilience and vitality in emerging industries, thus providing diverse investment perspectives [4]