证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 如何把政策框架融入普林格时钟？ ——资产配置框架系列研究报告一 核心观点 从宏观研判到资产价格的落地，这一过程是先由经济基本面的变量，决定政策变量， 例如货币政策，财政政策，产业政策，监管政策，最后再是到资产价格的轮动。我们 形成了 P（pring）P（policy）T（timing）的资产配置体系，将宏观基本面-政策框架 -资产配置一一落地。其中，第一个 P 代表普林格时钟，我们通过将基本面作技术分析 化，可以对基本面的走势变化进行提前判断。基本面的变化从而影响我们第二个 P， 也就是政策指数的变化，而 T 代表的 timing 则是资产配置的择时体系，帮助我们在合 适的时机买入资产。 ❑ 风险提示 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 11 日 分析师：李超 执业证书号：S1230520030002 lichao1@stocke.com.cn 分析师：何佳烨 执业证书号：S1230525100001 hejiaye@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《12 月通胀：物价环比改 善，低 PPI 滞后影响仍存》 2026.01.09 2 《对非洲 ...

2025年是职业投资第十个年头，年终收益18.39%。贴两个图，年度收益图和月度收益图。 | 省金 | 资金 | Hill #A | 眼投 | स्ट स्ते | 个人 | 沪深300 | 中证800 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | स से | 浄値 | स्ट से | 浄値 | | न्तर से | न्तर सं | न्तर स्टे | | 1 | 1. 1850 | | | 2014 | 18. 50% | 51.66% | 48. 28% | | 2 | 1. 6946 | | | 2015 | 43.00% | 5. 58% | 14. 91% | | 3 | 1.9487 | 1 | 1. 1500 | 2016 | 15.00% | -11. 28% | -13. 27% | | 4 | 2. 2216 | 2 | 1. 3110 | 2017 | 14. 00% | 21. 78% | 15. 16% | | 5 | 2. 4104 | 3 | 1. 4224 | 2018 | 8. 50% | -25. ...

当新年的日历翻向2026年，2025年ETF"竞技场"的榜单也最终定格。 对于ETF市场而言，2025年的关键词无疑是收获与跨越——6万亿元，这个曾经看似遥不可及的数字，如今已刻在ETF发展的里程碑上。Wind数据显示， 截至2025年末，全市场ETF规模达到6.02万亿元，全年规模激增逾六成；ETF产品数量跃升至1401只，大类资产配置工具日趋丰富。 从产品结构看，宽基ETF依然占据主导地位，华泰柏瑞、易方达、华夏旗下三大沪深300ETF牢牢占据规模榜前三。与此同时，行业与主题ETF引领结构性 行情，通信、人工智能、有色金属等领域涌现出一批收益率超过100%的"牛基"。此外，债券ETF、商品ETF及跨境ETF规模大幅增长，港股通互联网ETF 成为年度资金净流入最多的ETF。 ETF市场竞争格局进一步清晰。华夏、易方达、华泰柏瑞基金稳居ETF管理规模前三。此外，还有华夏、易方达、国泰、富国等4家基金公司旗下ETF2025 年资金净流入超千亿元。 在资本市场改革持续深化、长期资金加速入市的背景下，ETF市场已从简单的交易型工具进化为配置的基石，成为连接资产端与资金端的重要桥梁。 总规模首次突破6万亿元 连续跨过 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the significant growth of the ETF market in China, with the total market size reaching 6.02 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking a 61.33% increase from the previous year [4][6][33] - The number of ETF products increased to 1,401, reflecting a growth of 33.93% from the end of 2024, indicating a robust expansion in the market [4][27] - Major players in the ETF market include Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PB, which dominate the management scale, with Huaxia leading at 957.16 billion yuan [23][24] Group 2 - The performance of ETFs showed structural differentiation, with six ETFs achieving a unit net value growth rate exceeding 100%, particularly in sectors like communication, artificial intelligence, and non-ferrous metals [6][7] - Conversely, some ETFs tracking food and beverage indices experienced declines, with the wine ETF dropping by 12.96% [9][6] - The top ten ETFs by net inflow included the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, which attracted over 566 billion yuan, highlighting the strong demand for cross-border investment products [17][10] Group 3 - The bond ETF market also saw explosive growth, with the total size surpassing 800 billion yuan, driven by the popularity of the Sci-Tech Bond ETF, which accounted for over 50% of the annual growth in this segment [29][28] - The A500 ETF segment became a focal point of competition, with total assets exceeding 300 billion yuan and significant net inflows recorded in December 2025 [31][32] - The ETF issuance market experienced a historic surge, with 362 new ETFs launched in 2025, surpassing the total from the previous two years combined [27][28] Group 4 - The ETF custody market also expanded, with the top five custodians holding approximately 75% of the total ETF market size, indicating a concentration of assets among leading institutions [33] - A trend towards standardization in ETF naming was observed, with major firms like E Fund completing the renaming of their products to align with new regulatory guidelines [34]

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in investment style, with the banking sector receiving increased capital inflows, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][3] - In the equity market, technology sector ETFs saw a significant net inflow of 755 billion yuan, with semiconductor, battery, and robotics themes being particularly favored [3] - The banking ETF recorded a net inflow of 58 billion yuan in October, marking a new monthly high for 2025, following a net inflow of 32 billion yuan in September [3] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing growth in bond ETFs, particularly in sci-tech bonds, corporate bonds, and government bonds, indicating strong investor interest [4] - The report notes a substantial increase in the buying of long-term government bonds by major banks, while insurance companies are also increasing their allocation to long-term bonds [4] - In the commodity market, there has been a shift in domestic investor preferences from gold stock ETFs to gold ETFs, with a notable net inflow of 337.82 billion yuan in October [4]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity ETF market has experienced significant growth in both scale and performance, indicating its transition from a niche option to a core strategic asset in asset allocation [3][4]. Group 1: Growth in Scale and Performance - The total scale of commodity ETFs has increased by over 200% since the beginning of the year, with a total net inflow of 966.2 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 2,267 billion yuan [5][7]. - Gold ETFs have emerged as the main driver of this growth, with an average scale increase of 4.8 times this year, significantly outperforming traditional equity and bond assets [7][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The explosive growth of commodity ETFs is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, market structure, and investor awareness, with gold ETFs particularly benefiting from their inflation-hedging and asset preservation functions [9][10]. - The price of gold has surged, reaching a peak of over 4,100 USD per ounce, which has been a key factor in the strong performance of gold ETFs, with returns close to 50% this year [9][21]. Group 3: Investment Value Analysis - Gold ETFs dominate the commodity ETF market, accounting for over 95% of the total scale, making it essential to analyze future gold price trends for assessing the investment value of commodity ETFs [17][18]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to support gold prices, as historical trends show that a rate-cutting cycle typically leads to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [18][19]. Group 4: Selection and Allocation Strategies - For investors focused on asset preservation and risk hedging, gold ETFs are the preferred choice, while those looking to capitalize on economic cycles may consider allocating to industrial metal or energy ETFs [24][25]. - A diversified allocation strategy is suggested, with varying proportions of gold ETFs, industrial metal ETFs, and energy ETFs based on the investor's risk tolerance and market outlook [25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of the commodity ETF market appears promising, with ongoing product innovation expected to solidify commodity ETFs as a standard allocation in investment portfolios, especially in times of global uncertainty [26].

A-shares - Nobikang Artificial Intelligence Technology (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. has submitted its third listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC as the sole sponsor [2] - As of November 17, over 10,000 new private equity securities investment funds have been registered this year, with stock strategies being the dominant force in the issuance market [2][3] - In November, 509 overseas institutions conducted research on 109 listed companies, with a focus on the electronics and machinery equipment sectors [2] Financial Products - As of November 20, 19 insurance companies have issued capital replenishment bonds or perpetual bonds this year, totaling over 70 billion yuan, with nearly 70% being perpetual bonds [4] - The latest LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year terms, maintaining stability for six consecutive months [4] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have released new guidelines to promote high-quality development of index investment [4] Fund Market - As of November 17, a total of 1,378 public funds have been issued this year, surpassing last year's total of 1,143, marking the highest issuance in three years [5] - The average subscription period for new funds has decreased from 22.63 days last year to 16.31 days this year, indicating increased market activity [5] Economic Indicators - In October, China's retail sales grew by 2.8%, with significant increases in the sales of upgraded consumer goods such as gold and jewelry, which rose by 37.6% [6][7] - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% [8]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced increased volatility due to a combination of domestic and international negative factors, leading to declines across major indices, with small-cap indices like the North Securities 50 and CSI 2000 dropping over 5% for the week [1][4] - The average daily trading volume decreased compared to the previous week, totaling 9.23 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of approximately 1.84 trillion yuan, indicating potential challenges for a short-term market recovery [4] Sector Performance - The Shenwan first-level industry indices all fell, with the power equipment sector leading the decline at -10.54%, while basic chemicals, retail, and steel sectors also saw declines exceeding 5% [4] - The banking sector was the most resilient, showing the least decline among various sectors [4] Global Market Trends - Internationally, markets such as the KOSPI 200, Nikkei 255, and NASDAQ 100 also faced significant declines, with weekly drops of 4.09%, 3.47%, and 3.07% respectively, marking their worst performances in recent times [7] - The downturn was attributed to hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which reduced December rate cut expectations from 50% to 30%-40%, tightening risk appetite and impacting risk assets like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which fell over 10% [7] ETF Market Activity - Contrasting the overall market trend, the ETF market saw a net inflow of over 86.1 billion yuan for the week, with stock ETFs being the primary focus, attracting approximately 58.2 billion yuan [7][8] - The total ETF shares reached 30,672.98 billion, an increase of 51.55 billion shares from the previous week, indicating a strong interest in ETFs despite broader market declines [8] Notable ETF Performance - Among the ETFs, several tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Internet Index saw significant inflows, with four ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index collectively gaining over 11 billion shares [8] - Only two out of 1,258 stock ETFs managed to close in the green, both tracking foreign indices, highlighting the challenging environment for domestic ETFs [9] Technical Analysis and Outlook - Major indices have broken below key support levels, indicating a bearish market sentiment, with the potential for further declines if trading volumes and margin financing continue to decrease [7][10] - Despite the recent downturn, there is a suggestion of strong support within the 3,800-point range for the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a possible base for future upward movement [10]

Core Insights - Commodity ETFs are investment products that track commodity indices by replicating them, providing a diversified basket of commodities for investors [1] Group 1: Characteristics of Commodity ETFs - Commodity ETFs serve as effective tools for asset allocation, offering low correlation with other major asset classes, thus helping to diversify risk and optimize the risk-return profile of investment portfolios [1] - Commodity ETFs are considered good inflation hedges, as the prices of most commodities tend to rise with inflation, allowing investors to mitigate asset losses due to inflation [1] - Commodity ETFs lower the investment threshold for commodities, enabling individual investors to participate in commodity trading through a securities investment fund structure, enhancing accessibility and convenience [1][2]

Group 1: Commodity ETFs Growth - The total scale of commodity ETFs in the market has increased by over 200% this year, reaching a total of 229.99 billion yuan with a net inflow of 102.02 billion yuan as of November 14 [1] - The primary driver of this growth is the performance of gold ETFs, with leading products like Huaan Gold ETF growing from 1.2 billion yuan at inception to 87.38 billion yuan, a more than 70-fold increase [1] - The rise in commodity prices has created a profit-making effect that attracts capital into commodity ETFs, which offer a low-threshold and transparent investment tool for ordinary investors [1] Group 2: Asset Sales by A-Share Companies - Nearly 250 A-share companies have announced asset sales since October, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous years [1] - Companies are selling assets to focus on core businesses, accelerate capital recovery, or improve annual performance due to unsatisfactory results in the first three quarters [1] - The urgency of asset sales is influenced by new delisting regulations that pressure companies to meet financial data standards, although there are uncertainties in completing these sales by year-end [1] Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry and Energy Storage - The energy storage market has surged since Q3, driving rapid demand for lithium battery materials, with prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium carbonate significantly increasing [2] - Phosphate lithium batteries dominate the new energy storage sector, accounting for over 97% of installed capacity [2] - The energy storage boom is seen as a new growth driver for lithium demand, indicating that this trend may just be beginning [2] Group 4: Major Contracts and Stock Price Catalysts - Nearly 70 A-share companies have signed significant contracts or strategic cooperation agreements since October, which are viewed positively by the market and tend to boost stock prices [3] - The mechanical equipment and power equipment sectors have the highest number of companies involved in these contracts, with notable projects like a 6.16 billion yuan contract for a large-scale energy storage project [3] Group 5: Hong Kong-listed Automakers' Q3 Reports - Xpeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely Auto reported their Q3 results, with Xpeng's losses narrowing significantly, Leap continuing to be profitable, and Geely's profits increasing substantially [4] - The automotive industry is expected to face a critical phase next year, with companies needing strong profitability to survive [4] - All three companies expressed optimism about the market outlook and plans to accelerate overseas expansion despite the upcoming reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives [4]