1. 瑞银：预计本周数据表现将足够疲软，推高美联储年底前降息概率 瑞银全球财富管理的策略师在报告中表示，美元可能会走弱，因为美国本周公布的数据预计将表现疲 软。重要数据包括周二的零售销售、消费者信心以及成屋签约销售，周三将公布耐用品订单、每周初请 失业金人数以及新屋销售。策略师指出，这些数据将影响市场对经济增长、通胀以及美联储政策的预 期。"我们仍预计即将公布的数据会足够疲软，从而推动市场预期向12月降息概率上调，这将使美元在 年底前承压。" 2. 瑞银：明年AI与科技将引领全球股市上涨15% 瑞银全球财富管理首席投资办公室表示，人工智能以及更广泛的科技主题将在2026年继续成为全球股市 表现的主要驱动力，延续2025年的强劲走势。在最新展望中，瑞银认为宏观环境正在变得更加有利，预 计全球经济增长将在明年下半年趋于稳健。根据该行预测，美国GDP增速为1.7%，受益于更宽松的金 融环境和扩张性的财政政策。欧元区增速预计为1.1%，亚太地区接近5%。尽管市场仍担忧大型科技股 估值过高及潜在泡沫风险，瑞银依然保持乐观态度，认为人工智能、财政支持和货币宽松政策将继续推 动市场上涨，即便人口结构和去全球化等长期阻力仍在 ...

近日，有美媒报道称，"懂王"特朗普上任首日设立、由美国"顶流"企业家马斯克与拉马斯瓦米领导的"政府效率部（DOGE）"已在距离合约结束仍剩八个月 时被悄然解散。美国人事管理局局长证实其已"不再存在"，其多项职能已被人事管理局接管。 政府效率部悄然退场，马斯克改革梦碎 事实上，政府效率部门的命运自今年夏天起便引发外界猜测。 有报道称，DOGE工作人员已陆续搬离总部、另寻住所，部分人员转任新岗。尽管根据特朗普的签令，"政府效率部"将持续到2026年7月，但其实际运作或 提前落幕。 颇具戏剧性的是，近日马斯克重新现身华盛顿，出席白宫为沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德・本・萨勒曼举办的晚宴。DOGE的兴衰，不仅折射出特朗普政府内部 改革的现实阻力，也成为其政策执行中一道倏忽而逝的风景。 关税政策面临司法考验，白宫密谋"B计划" 另一边，特朗普力推的"对等关税"政策正面临来自最高法院的严峻挑战。据悉，多位大法官对该政策的合法性表示质疑，目前法庭正在审议是否裁定其无 效。 为应对潜在不利判决，白宫已悄然启动备用方案的研究。 一名熟悉相关规划的美国官员透露，美国商务部和美国贸易代表办公室都已研究了"备选方案B"的相关选项：如果法院裁 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping below 47,000 points, but later narrowed its losses, while the Nasdaq turned positive [1] - As of the latest update, the Dow was down 0.74%, the Nasdaq up 0.06%, and the S&P 500 down 0.15% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks in the US showed resilience, contributing to a recovery in market sentiment, with SanDisk rising over 7% and Micron Technology up over 6% [2] - Nvidia, a leading global chipmaker, saw its stock price increase by 0.82%, reversing earlier losses [2] Precious Metals - Precious metal prices experienced a sharp decline, with London spot gold dropping over 3% and nearing the $4,000 per ounce mark, while COMEX gold futures fell by 2.88% [4] - Silver prices also fell, with spot silver dropping over 4% at one point, currently reported at $50.832 per ounce, down 2.78% [4] Technology Sector Insights - Wedbush, an investment bank, suggested that the recent sell-off in tech stocks represents a buying opportunity, viewing it as a temporary panic moment [7] - The firm anticipates significant gains in tech stocks for the remainder of the year, driven by investor interest in the AI revolution [7] - UBS highlighted that companies benefiting from AI development constitute about 23% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, contributing over 42% to earnings growth in 2025 [7] Economic Data Release - The US Department of Commerce is set to release the revised GDP figures for Q3 and PCE data on November 26, which will be crucial for assessing economic growth and inflation trends [8]

新华财经北京11月11日电（郭洲洋、左元）11月11日，贵金属、油脂、碳酸锂等维持强势，双焦、多晶硅跌幅靠前。截至收盘，白银涨超3%，黄金、菜油 涨超2%，花生、碳酸锂、苹果、棕榈油涨超1%；双焦跌超3%，多晶硅跌超2%，集运欧线、玻璃、生猪、乙二醇、尿素、苯乙烯、硅铁、纯苯、鸡蛋跌超 1%。 截至11日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1479.82点，较前一交易日上涨11.89点，涨幅0.81%；中证商品期货指数收报2041.79点，较前一交易日上涨 16.41点，涨幅0.81%。 三大油脂延续反弹趋势，其中菜油主力合约涨超2%；棕榈油主力合约涨超1%；豆油主力合约小幅收涨。据国家粮油信息中心监测，截至11月7日，国内三 大油脂商业库存223万吨，周环比下降10万吨，月环比下降15万吨。进口方面，钢联数据显示，最近1-2周沿海油厂菜籽库存及压榨量几乎归零。这也令沿海 菜油库存下滑加速。新湖期货分析称，照此速度，11月中下旬开始，国内进口菜油就会呈现库存偏低、供需紧张。12月开始虽然有澳洲菜籽陆续到港，但每 月预计2-3船，不及20万吨，主要缓解国内菜油库存的下降速度。因此，中短期国内菜油供需预期紧张支撑了 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Tuesday saw short - term weakness and long - term strength in the Treasury bond market. The central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity, boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in Sino - US trade talks has reduced market disturbances. The market anticipates that the central bank will mainly purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially long - term rates as well. However, the potential suppression of long - term rates due to the recovery of risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.660，环比0%；成交量66835，环比增加933。TF主力收盘价106.030，环比 - 0.01%；成交量50509，环比减少2173。TS主力收盘价102.498，环比 - 0.01%；成交量19329，环比减少5311。TL主力收盘价116.520，环比0.03%；成交量86971，环比减少11856 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603价差0.25，环比增加0.01；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.86，环比减少0.03。T2512 - 2603价差0.26，环比减少0.01；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.63，环比不变。TF2512 - 2603价差0.05，环比减少0.01；TS12 - T12价差 - 6.16，环比不变。TS2512 - 2603价差0.04，环比增加0.00；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.53，环比不变 [2]. 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量240832，环比减少3036；T前20名多头234667，环比增加2353；T前20名空头253814，环比增加2422；T前20名净空仓19147，环比减少1488。TF主力持仓量149798；TF前20名多头139385，环比减少45；TF前20名空头160251，环比增加10；TF前20名净空仓20866，环比增加55。TS主力持仓量70457，环比减少709；TS前20名多头64962，环比减少540；TS前20名空头74541，环比减少8；TS前20名净空仓9579，环比增加532。TL主力持仓量134287，环比减少3487；TL前20名多头133484，环比减少884；TL前20名空头151049，环比减少1420；TL前20名净空仓17565，环比减少536 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(4y）净价106.7266，环比减少0.0192；220019.IB(4y）净价99.0955，环比减少0.0190。250003.IB(4y）净价99.6713，环比减少0.0117；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比减少0.0202。250017.IB(1.7y)净价100.0353，环比减少0.0110；250012.IB(2y)净价100.0453，环比减少0.0160。210005.IB(17y)净价131.5531，环比增加0.0439；210014.IB(18y)净价127.8009，环比减少0.0022 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率1.3850%，环比增加0.50bp；3y收益率1.4175%，环比增加0.75bp；5y收益率1.5350%，环比增加0.50bp；7y收益率1.6395%，环比增加0.95bp；10y收益率1.7900%，环比减少0.25bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.3066%，环比增加0.66bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3150%，环比减少0.10bp。银质押7天利率1.4058%，环比减少2.42bp；Shibor7天利率1.4150%，环比增加0.30bp。银质押14天利率1.4400%，环比减少1.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.4780%，环比增加0.90bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR为3.00%，环比不变；5y LPR为3.5%，环比不变 [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模1175亿，环比减少3578亿；到期规模4753亿；利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.9 Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways, while threats and pressure do not help solve problems. - The Ministry of Finance updated its official website, listing the Debt Management Department under the "Ministry Agencies". The department is responsible for formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, etc. [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - On November 5th at 21:15, the US ADP employment figures for October will be released. - On November 6th at 22:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, aligning with market expectations, while signaling that further rate cuts are not guaranteed [4][10][14] - The report notes that Japan's core CPI has risen, with Tokyo's CPI increasing by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating potential inflationary pressures that may prompt the Bank of Japan to consider rate hikes [15][34] - The European Central Bank has maintained its key refinancing rate at 2.15%, suggesting that the rate-cutting cycle in the Eurozone is likely over, with a high probability of maintaining current rates in December [15][29] Group 2 - Key economic indicators show that the U.S. fiscal deficit rate has decreased, with September fiscal revenue at $543.7 billion and a projected fiscal deficit of $1.775 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [20][21] - The report indicates that the Eurozone's GDP for Q3 has shown a better-than-expected performance, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.2% and a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [26][27] - In Japan, industrial production has rebounded, with a 2.2% month-on-month increase in the industrial production index, signaling a recovery in economic activity [35]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the over - increase, there may be a correction. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions when the price rises to a high level in November and maintain the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [1][79]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In October, the overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market was a high - opening after the holiday, followed by a decline and then a gradual strengthening. After the double - festivals, the external precious metals and non - ferrous metals performed well, and aluminum followed the upward trend. However, due to a series of events such as China's export control on rare earths, anti - monopoly investigations, and tariff announcements, the aluminum price fluctuated. Later, with positive factors like the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan summary, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the aluminum price gradually strengthened [5][6]. 2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Overseas Macro Indicators**: The Federal Reserve has had a series of interest rate decisions including rate cuts and rate holds in 2024 - 2025, and an expected rate cut in December 2025. The European Central Bank has also adjusted its interest rates, with multiple rate cuts and rate holds. A series of macro - economic data such as the US federal funds rate, PCE price index, and euro - zone HICP are presented [12][14]. - **Domestic Macro Indicators**: Domestic GDP growth, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rates, CPI, PPI, and other data are shown. In September, China's exports and imports increased significantly year - on - year. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a series of consensus, and the external tariff environment is temporarily stable. It is expected that exports will strengthen month - on - month in November [19][25]. 3. Aluminum Raw Materials - **Domestic Bauxite**: The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening. Due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan, combined with the rainy season, bauxite mining activities are restricted. Although the price of domestic bauxite is firm, it will face pressure with the increase in imported bauxite after the end of the rainy season in Guinea [28]. - **Imported Bauxite**: In September 2025, the import volume of bauxite decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Guinea is the largest supplier. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the bauxite supply is expected to increase, and the price of imported bauxite is expected to decline [31]. 4. Alumina - At the end of October, the built - in production capacity of alumina remained unchanged month - on - month, while the operating capacity decreased. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina declined. Newly - put - into - production capacity in the first half of the year has entered a stable production state, but some small - scale and high - cost alumina enterprises in inland areas are facing losses and production cuts. In November, alumina is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and one can try to go long lightly near 2700 or sell out - of - the - money put options [34]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Production Capacity**: As of the end of October, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged month - on - month, and the operating capacity decreased slightly. The decrease was mainly due to the technical transformation of some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy. The remaining new production capacity expected to be put into operation this year is 110,000 tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly in November, but the new production capacity is very limited [38]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, the import volume of primary aluminum increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Russia and Indonesia are the main suppliers. In October, the loss of aluminum imports widened. In November, the London aluminum is expected to correct after over - increase, and the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The main costs of electrolytic aluminum are electricity, alumina, and pre - baked anodes. In October, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 14,980 yuan/ton, mainly due to the decline in alumina prices [43]. 6. Downstream Demand for Aluminum - **Automobile**: In September, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the export of automobiles reached a new high. With the implementation of the 69 - billion - yuan special treasury bond for consumer goods replacement and the peak season of automobile production and sales, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to continue to grow [51]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September, real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and other indicators declined year - on - year. Although some cities have introduced real - estate relaxation policies, the market is still weak, and this weak trend is expected to continue in November [55]. - **Infrastructure**: In September, the issuance of new local bonds decreased. The issuance progress of new local special bonds in the first nine months was relatively fast, which is expected to drive infrastructure investment. However, the high proportion of special bonds used for debt repayment will have a squeezing effect on infrastructure investment. Although the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down recently, power grid investment has increased significantly, and the future demand for aluminum in infrastructure is still optimistic [58]. - **Home Appliances**: In September, the production and sales of home appliances were stable, and the export performance was stronger than the seasonal average. However, the production schedule of the three major white - goods in November decreased month - on - month, and the demand for aluminum in the home - appliance industry is expected to decrease [61]. - **Photovoltaic**: In September, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. With the release of provincial mechanism electricity prices and the start of some centralized photovoltaic projects, the photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to improve at a low level in November [66]. - **Aluminum Products Export**: In September, the export of aluminum products decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of aluminum products also decreased. In November, the London aluminum is expected to correct after over - increase, and the net export of aluminum products is expected to decline month - on - month [69]. 7. Inventory - The inventory depletion in October was satisfactory [70].

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at 4% during the upcoming meeting on November 7, breaking a pattern of rate cuts that has persisted since August 2024 [1][5] - The decision comes amid inflation rates nearly double the 2% target and in anticipation of the autumn budget announcement on November 26 [1][5] - If the Bank of England holds rates steady, it will contrast sharply with the Federal Reserve's recent policy easing [1][5] Group 2 - Despite the pause in rate cuts, there is speculation that this may be temporary, with traders increasing bets on a potential rate cut in December, with probabilities nearing 60% [5] - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated uncertainty regarding the timing of future rate cuts, especially with the upcoming budget announcement [5] - Economists suggest that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut rates again until there is a clear downward trend in inflation data, potentially not until April next year [5]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading in a range below 0.6550, currently at 0.6545, with a slight increase of 0.02% as investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision [1] - Australian economic data shows positive signals, with September building approvals rising significantly by 12.0%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.0%, and household spending increasing by 0.2% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year [1] - The TD-MI inflation indicator rose by 0.3% month-on-month in October, slightly down from 0.4% in September, while the year-on-year inflation rate increased from 3.0% to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - China's manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.2 in September to 50.6 in October, below the market expectation of 50.9, indicating potential impacts on the AUD due to the close trade relationship between China and Australia [2] - The market widely expects the RBA to maintain interest rates unchanged after three previous cuts, as overall inflation remains within the target range of 2%-3% [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate has maintained an upward trend since October 17, but requires new catalysts for a significant breakthrough [3] - Current trading range for AUD/USD is between 0.6538 and 0.6491, with support levels at 0.6440 and 0.6415, and resistance levels at 0.6630 and 0.6707 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: The fundamental drivers for precious metals mainly come from the Fed's expected interest rate cut but sending hawkish signals, which boosts risk - aversion sentiment due to policy uncertainties. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continuously strengthen the safe - haven attribute of gold. The strong gold investment demand globally in Q3 (a 47% year - on - year increase) and the support from the RMB - denominated advantage and the recovery of domestic physical demand lead to a "strong domestic, weak overseas" pattern [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the copper market saw a decline in both volume and price. The spot premium showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, but the increase was limited. If the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price may remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [17]. - **Aluminum**: The tariff negotiation results led to a night - session increase in Shanghai aluminum. With macro events gradually settled, the market is in a news vacuum, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and prices are falling. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and strong support at the bottom [37]. - **Zinc**: In November, the TC of zinc decreased significantly due to intense competition for mines in the smelting sector, the lack of price advantage of overseas mines, and limited domestic mine increments. The smelting sector's willingness to cut or stop production increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports prices, and there is an upward driving force in November [60]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new regulations on nickel ore quotas in 2026 are stricter. The price increase of nickel ore has slowed down, and the market circulation is tight. The price of nickel - iron and chrome - iron has declined, weakening the cost support for stainless steel. Stainless steel is in the off - season, and downstream demand is weak [76]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, Yunnan's tin production has declined, and concentrate imports have dropped sharply. Supply is weaker than demand. In the short term, it is difficult to solve supply - side disturbances, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong, with support around 276,000 yuan [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are continuously and significantly decreasing. Before the end of the year, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month, which may drive spot procurement demand and support the futures price [105]. - **Silicon**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, enterprise production cuts are expected to increase, and the price center may move up slightly, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. The polysilicon spot market is cold, with a production - cut expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [116]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price, and related price ratios and spreads are presented in multiple charts [4][6][9]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical risks, global central bank gold purchases, and investment demand are the main driving factors for the precious metals market [3]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures are provided. The prices of Shanghai copper futures have declined, and the London copper price has also decreased [18]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different copper sources have declined, and the spot premium has shown a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data are given, with some changes in inventory quantities [33][35]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are provided. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased slightly, while alumina prices have decreased [38]. - **Spread Data**: Various spreads between different aluminum and alumina contracts are presented, with some spreads showing significant changes [40][42]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [54]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures are provided. Both prices have declined [61]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different zinc grades have increased slightly, and LME zinc spreads have decreased [69]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [73]. Nickel - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided. Prices have declined [77]. - **Downstream Data**: Nickel - related downstream product prices, such as stainless steel, have also declined, and the cost support for stainless steel has weakened [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt inventory data are presented [82]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided. Shanghai tin prices have increased slightly, while LME tin prices have decreased [92]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin and LME tin inventory data are given, with inventory decreases [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided. Some contracts have shown price increases [106]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different lithium - related products have changed, with some price increases [110]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventory and social inventory data of lithium carbonate are given, with inventory decreases [114]. Silicon - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. Prices have declined [118]. - **Downstream Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented, showing different trends [125][126][127]. - **Inventory Data**: Inventory data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are given, with polysilicon inventory at a relatively high level [136][144].