当地时间1月5日，桥水基金创始人雷伊·达利欧在社交媒体平台发文，对当前人工智能领域的投资热潮 发出警示。他表示，此前推动华尔街科技股大幅上涨的人工智能热潮，目前"已步入泡沫初期阶段"。 达利欧指出，2025年美国股市的表现显著落后于非美国股票以及黄金等资产类别。他引述的数据显示， 去年国际黄金价格涨幅超过60%，新兴市场与英国富时100指数的表现均优于全球主要市场。这位对冲 基金界的传奇人物写道："显然，相较于美国股票，投资者更愿意配置非美股资产；同理，相较于美国 债券与美元现金，他们也更青睐非美债券资产。" 达利欧于1975年共同创立了桥水联合基金。公开信息显示，该机构旗下的旗舰宏观策略基金在2025年取 得了创纪录的业绩表现。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 在分析市场环境时，达利欧提及，去年秋季全球股市曾出现震荡，市场对人工智能概念股可能存在泡沫 的担忧日益加剧，这压制了市场情绪并抬升了抛售风险。与此同时，中东地缘政治紧张局势以及对美联 储未来利率政策走向的不确定性，进一步加剧了投资者的不安。 "毋庸置疑，未来 ...

今年以来，美国联邦储备系统对加密货币市场的动能产生了重大影响，鉴于政策制定者之间的分歧，这一影响很可能将持续至2026年。 美联储在2025年实施了三次降息，最近一次是在12月10日，将利率下调至3.5%至3.75%区间。 不过，预测显示，尽管利率仍处于自2008年以来的最高水平，2026年预计仅会有一次额外的降息。 影响政策制定者决策的关键因素包括劳动力市场数据、通胀走势，特别是关税影响，以及整体经济增长。 美联储主席鲍威尔任期将于5月结束，届时央行也将迎来新任主席。特朗普总统已提前筛选出倾向于鸽派的候选人。 尽管今年已降息三次， 美国利率仍维持在18年来高位。来源：Macro Trends 编辑 美联储下次会议将于1月27日和28日举行，作为理事们首次更新指引的契机，本次会议或为一季度定下基调。 12月点阵图显示，各政策制定者对2026年底利率 的看法分歧较大。来源：Federal Reserve 编辑 嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）分析师在美联储12月降息后表示，"最新预测并不特别偏向鹰派"，19位政策制定者中有12人预计明年将至少再降息一次。 芝商所（CME Group）数据显示，投资者预测 ...

2、对通胀和就业问题的看法。 3、对持续时间创历史最长纪录的美国政府关门事件影响的讨论。 【美联储会议纪要关注点】1、对利率政策的讨论情况。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Precious Metals and Commodities Market - **Key Drivers**: Quantitative easing, tariff policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and inflation concerns have significantly influenced the prices of precious metals since 2020 [2][4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Precious metals have seen a strong performance, particularly silver and platinum, driven by global economic uncertainty and inflation fears. The internal rate of return (IRR) for precious metal projects can exceed 50%, making them more attractive than copper projects, which typically have an IRR of around 20% [2][6][4]. - **Copper Price Expectations**: The market anticipates copper prices to rise to $8 per pound due to insufficient current prices ($5 per pound) to incentivize new investments and production expansions [8]. - **Shift to Safe-Haven Assets**: Post-pandemic economic recovery in the U.S. has been weak, leading to a shift of funds towards safe-haven assets like precious metals, as confidence in U.S. debt repayment capabilities diminishes [9][11]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical uncertainties have prompted Western countries to accelerate the development of domestic critical mineral resources, impacting supply and prices [10][30]. Additional Important Insights - **Speculative Sentiment in Silver Market**: The decline in the gold-silver ratio indicates heightened speculative sentiment, with retail investors heavily buying silver, which could lead to a reversal of bullish sentiment [5][34]. - **Outlook for Industrial Metals**: The outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic, with expectations of continued leadership in the market, particularly for copper, lithium, and gold [26][29]. - **Valuation of Precious Metals**: Precious metals are currently more attractive compared to other commodities due to lower initial capital expenditures and tighter supply conditions [6][31]. - **Market Volatility**: The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship could lead to increased market volatility, affecting interest rate policies and overall market sentiment [15]. Market Dynamics - **Investment Opportunities**: The current low valuations in the non-ferrous metals sector present significant investment opportunities, with historical data suggesting a positive correlation between low price-to-earnings ratios and market performance [31]. - **Future Price Risks**: The silver market faces potential risks from speculative buying, which could lead to sharp price corrections if sentiment shifts [40][42]. - **Impact of Retail Investors**: Retail investors are expected to play a crucial role in the silver market, potentially driving prices higher in the short term, but their speculative behavior may also lead to volatility [42][43]. Conclusion The precious metals and commodities market is currently influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical uncertainties, and speculative behaviors. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with significant opportunities for investment, particularly in precious metals and select industrial metals. However, potential risks from market volatility and shifts in investor sentiment must be closely monitored.

智通财经APP获悉，过去一年，美联储在实现国会授权的双重目标——最大化就业与物价稳定——时陷 入了自上世纪70年代滞胀时期以来罕见的矛盾境地。这种局面引发了美联储多年来未见的内部深刻分 歧，最直接的体现便是委员们在利率政策上针锋相对的反对意见。 而这种分歧态势，预计将持续到2026年。 德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti指出，美联储主席鲍威尔今年成功弥合了分裂的央行内 部共识，推动了三次降息。但如果未来通胀率持续高企、就业市场却依旧疲软，新任主席可能会发现更 难凝聚共识。 Luzzetti表示："尽管未来最有可能的政策路径仍是进一步降息，但我们也需警惕一种风险情景：下一任 主席最终可能面对一个考虑加息的委员会。" 亨廷顿银行首席经济学家Ian Wyatt补充道："在这样的环境下，新任主席想要调和各方意见、推动政策 共识，无疑是一项艰巨的任务。尤其是当新任主席的政策立场与委员会多数委员的观点严重脱节时，难 度会进一步升级。" 特朗普日益增长的影响力 2025年初，特朗普政府推出了一系列密集的经济政策调整，从频繁变动的关税税率到收紧边境管控以限 制移民流入，这些举措让美联储在全年多数时间里 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the demand for cross - year funds increased, leading to a structural differentiation in the capital market. The bond market fluctuated and consolidated, while the convertible bond market's major indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined, and the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 4th quarter (111th in total) regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 was held on December 18. It proposed to leverage the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, maintain ample liquidity, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [3]. - On December 24, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on December 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan after considering the maturity of 300 billion yuan of MLF this month [4]. - Multiple departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", proposing 21 key measures to support its high - quality development [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", with a total of 1679 items, a net increase of 205 items compared to the 2022 edition [5]. - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies on December 24, reducing the social security or tax payment requirements and allowing multi - child families to buy an additional property within the 5th Ring Road [6]. - **International News** - On December 24, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 13 was 1.923 million. Consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 24, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices declined. WTI February crude futures fell 0.05% to $58.35 per barrel, Brent February crude futures fell 0.22% to $62.24 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.01% to $4,505.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.69% to $4.249 per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On December 24, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 46.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [11]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 24, due to the increasing cross - year demand from institutions, the capital market showed a structural differentiation. DR001 dropped 0.69bp to 1.262%, and DR007 dropped 3.05bp to 1.380% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On December 24, affected by multiple rumors such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and bond purchases, the bond market fluctuated and consolidated. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8975% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Information on the tendering of 25 Discount Treasury Bond 82, 25 Discount Treasury Bond 81, and 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 25 is provided, including their terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other data [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On December 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "22 Vanke 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 18% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Various companies announced events such as debt defaults, debt restructurings, asset sales, and equity transfers. For example, Sunac China completed its comprehensive overseas debt restructuring, and Wanda's credit ratings were downgraded [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On December 24, the three major A - share stock indices rose collectively, and the convertible bond market also increased. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.71%, 0.75%, and 0.62% respectively [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On December 25, Jin 05 Convertible Bond started its online subscription, and on December 24, Tianneng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price [23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On December 24, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.15%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries both narrowed by 2bp [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On December 24, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends. France's 10 - year government bond yield rose 1bp, Spain's dropped 1bp, and the UK's remained unchanged [24]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on December 24, price change information of various Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds is provided, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of bonds issued by companies such as Longfor Group and Wanda [26].

转自：智通财经 2025年，美联储在复杂的经济与政治环境中交出了一份充满争议却也颇具韧性的答卷。这一年，联储货 币政策基调从抗通胀转向稳增长，而独立性争议则成为贯穿全年的暗线。 "艰难平衡"中降息3次 过去一年，美联储在实现"充分就业"和"稳定物价"这两个政策目标上出现了冲突——这种情况自上世纪 70年代滞胀时期以来从未出现过。这种局面导致美联储内部出现多年未见的分歧，在利率政策方面截然 相反的意见表态便是明证。 正如年初所料，今年最大的"变数"来自特朗普。尤其是其关税政策。最初，美联储许多官员认为关税只 会导致一次性物价上涨，不会演变成长期通胀。但时至今年的4月2日，特朗普释放"重磅炸弹"——解放 日关税后，更多官员开始担心关税可能会导致更持久的通胀。 美联储官员们利用了夏季几个月的时间进行监测和评估。也正因为如此，今年前八个月，美联储一直按 兵不动，以"静观其变"、并评估"特朗普关税"及其他政策调整对经济的影响。 时至9月份，美联储终于在两难局面（劳动力市场走弱、通胀仍处高位）下，宣布了今年的首次降息。 紧接着，在10月底再度降息25个基点。 秋季还迎来了有史以来持续时间最长的政府停摆，使得央行在缺乏官方 ...

美联储克利夫兰联储主席 Beth Hammack 表示，在通胀仍高于目标、数据存在失真背景下，未来数月内 没有必要调整利率。她称，11 月 CPI 的降温可能因政府停摆导致的数据问题而被低估，实际通胀或接 近 2.9%–3.0%。在更清楚评估关税对物价和经济影响前，倾向将政策利率维持在 3.5%–3.75% 区间至少 至明年春季，并认为当前利率可能已接近甚至略低于中性水平。（WSJ） 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） ...

周一欧洲交易时段，英镑兑美元走强，上涨约 0.18%，交投于 1.3400 附近，盘中高点触及 1.3415。 周二将公布的美国第三季度 GDP 初值成为关注焦点，市场预计年化增速为 3.2%，低于第二季度的 3.8%。若数据不及预期，可能促使市场重新评估美联储 短期政策立场。CME FedWatch 显示，市场预计美联储在 1 月会议降息 25 个基点的概率约为 22.5%。 汇价上行主要受英国经济数据落地、美元阶段性走弱以及技术面偏多因素共同推动。中长期走势仍取决于英国经济基本面表现及英国央行政策路径。 英国国家统计局确认，第三季度 GDP 环比增长 0.1%，与初值一致。 数据对英镑形成一定支撑，吸引短线资金入场，但市场反应相对克制。投资者普遍认为，数据难以扭转对英国经济前景的谨慎预期，第四季度增长动能仍存 不确定性。 英国央行上周公布的货币政策声明显示，工作人员预计第四季度 GDP 零增长。央行以 5 比 4 的投票结果决定降息 25 个基点，将基准利率下调至 3.75%，这 是自 2024 年 8 月启动降息周期以来的第六次降息。此前公布的数据显示，10 月英国经济意外萎缩 0.1%，加深市场对复苏 ...

利率市场显示，截至12月18日，ASX 30天银行间现金利率期货2026年2月合约报96.34点，隐含下次RBA会议加息至3.85%的概率约为27%。 汇市方面，澳元走强，美元结束三连涨 受美联储官员谨慎表态影响，美元未能反弹，美元指数（DXY）持续回落，交投于98.60附近。市场正等待周二公布的美国第三季度GDP年化数据，其结果 可能对美元走势形成指引。 克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·汉马克周日接受媒体采访时表示，当前货币政策处于合适状态，适合暂停加息，评估第一季度75个基点降息对经济的影 响。市场预期方面，经济预测摘要显示，市场普遍认为2026年美联储仅会再加息一次。相关工具数据显示，美联储在1月会议上维持利率不变的概率已从一 周前的75.6%升至79.0%，降息25个基点的概率则从24.4%降至21.0%。 美国劳工统计局此前公布的11月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据显示，当月CPI同比涨幅回落至2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%；剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同 比上涨2.6%，同样低于3.0%的预期值，该数据创下2021年以来的最低增速。 中国人民银行公布维持贷款市场报价利率（LPR）不变，一年期LPR ...