证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 氟化工行业：2025 年 12 月月度观察 优于大市 一季度制冷剂长协价格落地，关注 PVDF 价格持续修复 12 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 12 月末（12 月 31 日），上证综指报 3968.84 点， 较 11 月末（11 月 28 日）上涨 2.06%；沪深 300 指数报 4629.94 点，较 11 月末上涨 2.28%；申万化工指数报 4372.39，较 11 月末上涨 4.43%；氟化工 指数报 2018.62 点，较 11 月末上涨 1.89%。12 月氟化工行业指数跑输申万 化工指数 2.54pct,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.39pct，跑输上证综指 0.17pct。 一季度主流制冷剂长协价格持续上涨。展望一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确 定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳定：据卓创资讯，R32 长协价格将在 61200 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度价格上涨 1000 元/吨，涨幅 1.66%；R410A 长协价格在 55100 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度上涨 1900 元/吨，涨 幅 3.57%。预计往后一周 R32 价格区间 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 氟化工行业：2025 年 12 月月度观察 优于大市 一季度制冷剂长协价格落地，关注 PVDF 价格持续修复 12 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 12 月末（12 月 31 日），上证综指报 3968.84 点， 较 11 月末（11 月 28 日）上涨 2.06%；沪深 300 指数报 4629.94 点，较 11 月末上涨 2.28%；申万化工指数报 4372.39，较 11 月末上涨 4.43%；氟化工 指数报 2018.62 点，较 11 月末上涨 1.89%。12 月氟化工行业指数跑输申万 化工指数 2.54pct,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.39pct，跑输上证综指 0.17pct。 一季度主流制冷剂长协价格持续上涨。展望一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确 定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳定：据卓创资讯，R32 长协价格将在 61200 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度价格上涨 1000 元/吨，涨幅 1.66%；R410A 长协价格在 55100 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度上涨 1900 元/吨，涨 幅 3.57%。预计往后一周 R32 价格区间 ...

开源证券主要观点如下： 各家对10%→30%切换比例的变化非常克制、有序 华谊集团（600623）孙公司万豪公司(主要生产F152a，F142b，FKM和PVDF等)停产。据公司公告，公 司涂料级PVDF国内市场占有率超过65%，并在锂电级PVDF领域成为全球主要生产商之一。据氟务在线 资讯，此次停产对市场影响较为显著的产品主要为PVDF，当前已有多家企业上调报价，最高报价已达 5.6万元/吨，实际成交仍有待验证。 氟化工周行情：萤石价格走势承压；制冷剂延续向上趋势萤石 据百川盈孚，截至12月12日，萤石97湿粉市场均价3,290元/吨，较上周下跌0.87%；12月均价(截至12月 12日)3,312元/吨，同比下跌9.83%；2025年(截至12月12日)均价3,482元/吨，较2024年均价下跌1.78%。 开源证券发布研报称，2026年制冷剂配额下发，氟化工行情延续，R32、R134a、R125、R143a、 R227ea等2026年配额与2025年下发配额变化有限，相比2025年调整后配额有所收缩。另一方面，PVDF 头部企业停产，当前已有多家企业上调报价，最高报价已达5.6万元/吨，实际成交仍有待验 ...

制冷剂配额约束下供给刚性，看好制冷剂景气周期 2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为797844吨，内用配额394082吨，相较于2025年，2026年三代制冷剂生 产配额总量增加5962吨，内用配额增加4502吨。2026年生产配额增量主要是R32增加1171吨，R134a增 加3242吨，R245fa增加2918吨；配额减少的有R143a减少1255吨、R227ea减少517吨以及R152a减少63 吨。 三代制冷剂价格延续涨势 根据百川盈孚，截止2025年12月12日，主流三代制冷剂及混配品种R134a/R125/R32/R410价格为 57500/45500/62500/54000元/吨，周涨幅+1.77%/+1.11%/0.00%/+0.93%，月涨幅 +6.48%/+1.11%/+0.00%/+0.93%，季涨幅+11.65%/+1.11%/+2.46%/+6.93%，年涨幅 +43.75%/+19.74%/+56.25%/+42.11%。 制冷需求延续增长，根据国家统计局，2025年1-10月国内空调产量累计值23034万台，同比+3.00%，出 口延续高基数，出口数量5243万台，同比-1.10% ...

国信证券近日发布2026年度制冷剂配额核发公示点评：具体配额上，2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为 79.78万吨，相较2025年初生产配额增长5963吨。R32、R125、R134a相比2025年初配额有所增加， R143a、R152a、R227ea相比2025年初有所减少。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事项： 2025年12月9日，生态环境部发布《关于2026年度消耗臭氧层物质和氢氟碳化物生产、使用和进口配额 核发情况的公示》，生态环境部受理了38家企业提交的2026年度二代制冷剂生产、使用配额申请，受理 了65家企业提交的2026年度三代制冷剂生产、进口配额申请，并对最终各企业生产、进口二代、三代制 冷剂配额进行了公示。其中二代制冷剂落实年度履约淘汰任务，R22生产配额削减了3005吨，R141b配 额清零；三代制冷剂生产和使用总量控制目标保持在基线值，维持了2025年的生产配额总量为18.53亿 吨CO2、内用生产配额总量为8.95亿吨CO2、进口配额总量为0.1亿吨CO2。具体配额上，2026年三代制 冷剂生产配额总量为79.78万吨，相较2025年初生产配额增长5963吨。R32、R125、R134a相 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年二代制冷剂履约削减，三代制冷剂配额制度延续， R32、R134a、R125等品种行业集中度高；三代制冷剂品种间转化比例同比增长，企业生产调配灵活性 提升，预计2026年主流三代制冷剂将保持供需紧平衡。制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向，在此背景 下，看好R32、R134a、R125等主流制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间；对应制冷剂配 额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。 国信证券主要观点如下： 三代制冷剂：R32、R125、R134a较2025年初配额有所增加，R143a、R152a、R227ea有所减少，两次 年内配额调整比例合计上调至30%，供给在配额约束下更具灵活性 根据《2026年度氢氟碳化物生产、进口配额核发表》，2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为79.78万吨， 相较2025年初生产配额增长5963吨；三代制冷剂内用配额总量为39.41万吨，较2025年初增加4502吨。 分品种看，R32生产配额28.15万吨，增加1171吨，内用配额18.52万吨，增加770吨；R134a生产配额 21.15万 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of the 2026 refrigerant quota indicates a long-term constraint on the supply side of both second and third-generation refrigerants, suggesting a continuation of product prosperity in the refrigerant market [3][5] - For second-generation refrigerants, the production and usage in 2026 will be reduced by 71.5% and 76.1% from the baseline, respectively, with R22 production quota reduced by 3,005 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.02% [3][6] - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is set at 797,800 tons, an increase of 5,963 tons compared to the beginning of 2025, with specific increases in R32, R125, and R134a quotas [2][3][7] - The report emphasizes that the tightening of refrigerant quotas is a long-term trend, and it is expected that the main third-generation refrigerants will maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2026, with significant price upside potential [3][20] Summary by Sections Second-Generation Refrigerants - The production quota for second-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 151,400 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from 2025, with R22 production quota at 146,100 tons, down 3,005 tons year-on-year [6][3] - The internal usage quota for R22 is 77,900 tons, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 3.60% [6] Third-Generation Refrigerants - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants is 797,800 tons, with an internal usage quota of 394,100 tons, both showing increases from 2025 [7][3] - Specific increases in production quotas include R32 at 281,500 tons, R134a at 211,500 tons, and R125 at 167,600 tons, while R143a, R152a, and R227ea show slight decreases [7][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading fluorochemical companies with complete industrial chains, advanced technology, and strong quota positions, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Dongyue Group [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook based on supply-demand dynamics and industry performance [2][12]. Core Insights - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to remain the long-term mainstream due to their efficiency and cost advantages over fourth-generation refrigerants, which face higher production costs and lower efficiency [9][10]. - The supply-demand gap for refrigerants is anticipated to widen further, driven by increasing demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors, alongside supply constraints from production quotas [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The refrigerant industry has shown a significant price increase for major refrigerants due to quota restrictions, with R32 priced at 63,000 CNY/ton, R134a at 55,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton as of December 1, 2025 [4][10]. Production Quotas - High utilization rates for R32 and R134a production quotas were reported, with R32 at 96.71% and R134a at 94.17% for the first ten months of 2025 [5][6]. - The 2026 production quotas for HFCs remain unchanged, but companies with flexible quota allocations are expected to benefit from the adjustments [6][7]. Demand Growth - The domestic air conditioning market has seen a production increase of 2.46% year-on-year, with a total of approximately 230 million units produced from January to October 2025 [10]. - The automotive sector is also recovering, with a 10.80% increase in production during the same period, further driving demand for refrigerants [11]. Future Projections - The internal demand gap for R32 and R134a is projected to increase from -1.24 million tons in 2025 to -2.39 million tons by 2027, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring individual companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Chemical, and others for potential investment opportunities [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 20.394 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.89%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.248 billion yuan, up 158.29% year-on-year [5][6] - The refrigerant business has been a key driver of the company's high growth, with a notable improvement in operating cash flow [6] - The supply of refrigerants is expected to remain tight due to quota constraints, which should sustain the industry's favorable conditions [7] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.424 billion, 5.737 billion, and 6.666 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 22, 17, and 14 times respectively [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.394 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.248 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 158.29% [5] - In Q3 2025 alone, the company reported revenue of 7.062 billion yuan, a 21.22% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.197 billion yuan, up 182.82% year-on-year [5][6] Business Segments - The refrigerant segment generated revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.01%, significantly contributing to the overall performance [6] - Other segments such as petrochemical materials and basic chemicals showed varied performance, with some segments experiencing declines [6] Market Outlook - The 2026 refrigerant quota is set to decrease, which is expected to maintain a tight balance in the refrigerant industry [7] - Demand for refrigerants is anticipated to grow due to increased production and sales of household air conditioners and automobiles [7] Investment Projections - The company is expected to maintain strong profit growth, with projected net profits increasing significantly over the next few years [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][23] Core Viewpoints - The release of the 2026 refrigerant quota allocation plan indicates long-term constraints on the supply side for both second and third-generation refrigerants, suggesting a continuation of favorable market conditions for refrigerant products [3][4] - The reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas, particularly for R22, is expected to improve the supply-demand balance [3][5] - The flexibility in adjusting third-generation refrigerant quotas has increased, allowing companies to adapt production based on actual supply and demand, which benefits firms with a comprehensive product range and higher quota allocations [3][8] - The tightening of refrigerant quotas is seen as a long-term trend, with expectations that mainstream refrigerants like R32 and R134a will maintain a favorable market outlook and significant price upside potential [3][19] Summary by Sections Quota Allocation Changes - In 2026, the production quota for R22 is reduced by 3,000 tons, and the quota for R141b is eliminated entirely. The total production quota for HCFCs is set at 151,400 tons, with a reduction of 71.5% from the baseline [2][5] - The total production and usage quotas for HCFCs in 2026 will be 79,700 tons, reflecting a reduction of 76.1% from the baseline [5] Market Dynamics - The average price of R22 has decreased to approximately 15,000-18,000 yuan/ton, with expectations of price stabilization [9] - R32 has shown strong performance with an average price reaching 59,000 yuan/ton, indicating a robust market demand [10] - R134a prices have also increased due to ongoing quota consumption, with current prices around 53,000 yuan/ton [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading fluorochemical companies with complete industrial chains, advanced technology, and strong quota positions, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. [3][19]