美联储会议纪要显示，即使官员降息，仍对通胀保持谨慎 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美联储的重磅消息。 10月9日凌晨， 美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。美联储官员们在9月政策会议上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿，但同时也因通胀 风险而保持谨慎。 重点内容如下。 尽管决策者指出劳动力市场的风险有所上升，许多人也认为就业不太可能迅速恶化。 纪要称："与会者总体评估，近期指标并未显示劳动力市场状况出现急剧恶化。" 自9月会议以来，包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和米歇尔·鲍曼在内的美联储理事都提到，劳动力市场的强劲是需要降息的理由。米兰则认为，中性利率 低于普遍认知，这意味着美联储需要更快降息。特朗普及多名政府官员也引用近期数据，越来越多地呼吁美联储立即降息。 联邦基金利率期货显示，投资者预计10月和12月大概率会降息。 纪要写道："几乎所有接受纽约联储交易台调查的受访者都预计本次会议将把联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，约半数受访者预计10月会议还将进一 步降息。绝大多数受访者预计到年底至少会有两次25个基点的降息，约半数预计会有三次。" 美联储官员在上月的政策会议上表示，今年内有意进一 ...

FOMC decision. Photo by BeInCrypto The Minutes of the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September 16-17 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT.  At this meeting, the US central bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the range of 4%-4.25%, but Fed Governor Stephen Miran preferred to lower the Fed funds rate by 50 bps. Jerome Powell and Company Opted To Reduce Policy Rate in September The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut the ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is showing a cautious attitude towards further interest rate cuts, with officials expressing concerns about inflation risks and limited room for additional easing after the recent rate cut [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem supports the recent rate cut but believes that further easing is limited unless inflation risks do not increase [1][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic shares a similar cautious stance, indicating that he sees no reason for further cuts this year due to concerns about prolonged high inflation [1][3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Musalem describes the recent rate cut as a preventive measure to support the labor market and prevent further weakness, while emphasizing the need for caution in monetary policy [3]. - Bostic predicts that core inflation will rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by the end of the year, with a slight increase in unemployment to 4.5% [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impacts - Both officials mention the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, with Musalem noting that while tariff effects have been less than expected, other factors are pushing inflation higher [5]. - Bostic observes that the cost increases driven by tariffs have been milder than initially predicted, but warns that these buffers may diminish in the coming months, leading to sustained price pressures [5].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating a shift in focus towards managing risks associated with the labor market and inflation dynamics [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Economic activity in the U.S. is expected to slow down in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains at historically low levels [1]. - The overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, while the core PCE increased by 2.9% [2][7]. Labor Market Dynamics - Job growth has significantly slowed, with new job creation falling below the breakeven rate needed to maintain stable unemployment [3][8]. - There are signs of a cooling labor market, including weak hiring and difficulties for marginalized groups in finding jobs [3][8]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed's current policy is characterized as a "risk management decision," balancing the dual mandate of employment and inflation control [2][9]. - Future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, relying heavily on incoming data [4][9]. Financial Stability - The overall financial condition of banks and households is stable, with default rates not reaching concerning levels, although ongoing monitoring is necessary [5]. - The Fed is undergoing organizational changes, including a 10% workforce reduction, returning to staffing levels seen a decade ago [5][11]. Independence and Governance - The Fed emphasizes its decision-making process is based on data rather than political influences, maintaining its independence as a core principle [6].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for an immediate interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, with expectations for further cuts in the next three to six months based on economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Waller highlights that the potential inflation rate in the U.S. is nearing the Fed's long-term target of 2%, and labor market weakness is becoming a concern, suggesting that risk management necessitates a rate cut [1]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed a significant slowdown, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, and previous months' figures were revised down by 258,000, raising employment concerns [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Stance - Waller's speech emphasizes the ongoing risks in the labor market and suggests that the Fed should overlook the temporary impact of tariffs on inflation [2]. - The recent FOMC meeting saw Waller and another member dissenting against the decision to keep rates unchanged, advocating for a 25 basis point cut instead, marking a notable division among Fed officials regarding tariff impacts on the economy [3]. Group 3: Potential Leadership Changes - Waller has emerged as a strong candidate for the next Fed Chair, with his support for rate cuts aligning with the timeline for potential nominations by the Trump administration [3][4]. - Economic advisor Stephen Miran praised Waller's performance at the Fed, particularly his inflation predictions and policy recommendations [4].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut in September and anticipates further reductions in the next three to six months due to potential inflation rates nearing 2% and increasing risks in the labor market [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16-17, contingent on upcoming employment data [1] - He emphasizes that the pace of future rate cuts will depend on subsequent economic data [1] - Waller's stance reflects a shift in the Federal Reserve's approach, as he previously opposed maintaining rates during the last policy meeting [2] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Waller highlights ongoing risks in the labor market, suggesting that the potential for adverse economic slowdown is increasing [1][2] - He argues that the Federal Reserve should disregard the temporary inflationary effects of tariffs, indicating a belief that these pressures will not have a lasting impact [2] Group 3: Political Context - The comments come in the wake of President Trump's dismissal of another Fed governor, Lisa Cook, marking an unprecedented level of pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Waller's remarks are significant as they occur amidst a historical legal battle that could affect the independence of the Federal Reserve and the broader U.S. economy [1]

Core Insights - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 5,000 to 229,000, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market [1] - However, the average monthly job growth over the past three months is only 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 average in the same period of 2024, suggesting weak employment growth [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.3% in August due to sluggish job growth [1] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is described as being in a "no hiring, no firing" stalemate, influenced by President Trump's protectionist trade policies [1] - Domestic demand has notably slowed, attributed in part to the impact of tariff policies [1] Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential interest rate cut in September to address rising risks in the labor market, while also acknowledging ongoing inflation threats [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that following Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, Wall Street banks have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts, with Morgan Stanley now predicting rate cuts starting in September [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut in September and December, followed by quarterly cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, aiming for a target rate of 2.75%-3.0% [1] - Powell's shift in tone regarding labor market risks indicates a potential preemptive adjustment in monetary policy to address downside risks in the labor market [1] Group 2 - Other international banks, including Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank, have also revised their forecasts, now expecting a 25 basis point cut in September and two cuts within the year [2] - The Dutch bank ING has updated its predictions, anticipating rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2025, followed by a 50 basis point cut in 2026 [2] - The likelihood of a September rate cut has increased from 75% to 87% according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference is interpreted as a clear signal for a potential interest rate cut in September [1][3] - Powell indicated that the balance of risks is shifting, with increasing downward risks in the labor market, and that the current restrictive policy allows for cautious adjustments [3][4] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, with a probability of 89.1% for this adjustment [4][6] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Labor market data shows signs of volatility, with initial jobless claims rising by 11,000 to 235,000, the largest increase since late May [3][4] - The aging population is highlighted as a significant threat to economic growth, with central bank leaders from Japan, Europe, and the UK emphasizing labor shortages due to demographic changes [8][9] - The European Central Bank's President Christine Lagarde noted that without an influx of foreign labor, the labor force in the Eurozone could decrease by 3.4 million by 2040 [8][9] Group 3: Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets rebounded following Powell's speech, with the S&P 500 index recovering from previous losses and the Dow Jones reaching a record close [6] - The market breadth remained stable despite a sell-off in major tech stocks, indicating that investors are seeking new leaders in sectors like industrials, energy, and finance [6][7] - Analysts expect that U.S. stocks may benefit from the anticipated policy easing, with a potential decline in U.S. Treasury yields [7]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the softening labor market is becoming a key variable in policy considerations, opening the possibility for a rate cut in September [1][2] - The market interpreted Powell's stance as more dovish than expected, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in the dollar, while U.S. stocks strengthened [1][3] - According to CME's FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September rose to 89%, up from 75% the previous day, with expectations for a total cut of approximately 58 basis points this year [1] Group 2 - Powell noted that the U.S. labor market is in an "unusual balance," with both supply and demand significantly slowing down, indicating rising downside risks to employment [2] - The July non-farm payroll data showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, well below the market expectation of 115,000, with previous months' job additions revised down by 258,000 [2] - Powell highlighted the need for cautious policy adjustments, stating that while the labor market indicators remain stable, changes in the baseline outlook and risk balance may warrant policy adjustments [2] Group 3 - Analysts believe Powell is attempting to downplay inflation risks while emphasizing the urgency of labor market weakness, with some suggesting that a rate cut is almost certain unless the employment report is unexpectedly strong [3] - Powell reiterated that the 2020 revision of the monetary policy framework does not imply a permanent abandonment of the ability to raise rates in response to a strong labor market [3][4] - The latest adjustments to the policy framework provide greater flexibility for the Federal Reserve to respond to a more volatile post-pandemic economy [4]