商业航天与卫星互联网：关注火箭产业链突破 20251123 摘要 商业航天迎来多重拐点：政策支持力度加大，部分核心公司三季度业绩 已显现积极变化，可回收火箭技术及 NTN 标准体系成为关注焦点，预示 行业进入加速发展期。 全球可回收火箭技术竞争加剧：SpaceX 猎鹰 9 号和星舰已成熟运行， Blue Origin 新格伦火箭实现一级回收，国内蓝箭等公司计划年底密集 发射，标志着全球商业航天进入新阶段。 算力上天面临挑战：带宽限制、太空环境复杂、设备折旧等问题制约发 展，需探索解决方案，这些因素对相关投资策略产生直接影响。 2026 年商业航天展望：作为"十五"规划首年，民商火箭密集发射将 降低成本，国家队也将推出可回收火箭，星网和垣信建设有望加速，推 动行业快速发展。 朱雀 3 号首发意义重大：作为民商火箭，其首发抢在国家队之前，采用 全舰不锈钢设计，借鉴猎鹰 9 号技术，成功将提升国内商业航天信心， 并推动技术发展。 Q&A 目前商业航天领域的三重拐点是什么？具体情况如何？ 商业航天领域的三重拐点包括两个确定性的拐点和一个可能出现的拐点。第一 个确定性的拐点是政策型的，主要体现在商业航天司的成立，这一机 ...

Group 1 - The military industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, with the aerospace ETF (159227) down by 1.52% as of 14:35 on November 21, 2023, and a trading volume of 207 million yuan, maintaining its position as the largest in its category [1] - Several companies within the aerospace sector, such as Guoke Military Industry, Tianhe Defense, China Marine Defense, and Yaguang Technology, are showing notable gains [1] - A significant increase in reusable rocket technology is expected between the end of 2025 and early 2026, with multiple rockets, including Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque 3," China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation's "Liqiang 2," and others, set to make their maiden flights, laying the groundwork for the commercialization of space travel [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities highlights a comprehensive improvement in the financial status of the military industry, with enhanced profitability and cash flow, shifting the valuation framework from "theme speculation" to "fundamental pricing" [1] - This trend is particularly evident in the aerospace sector, which is poised for a profound value reassessment as commercial space and low-altitude economies scale up [1] - The "Aerospace Power" strategy is expected to create a trillion-yuan market in emerging sectors, injecting strong new momentum into high-end manufacturing and the national economy [1][2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the defense and military industry is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The successful first flight of China's reusable rocket "Zhuque-3" is expected to significantly reduce the cost of satellite launches, targeting a cost of under 20,000 RMB per kilogram, comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9 [3][4] - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for China's commercial aerospace sector, with multiple key flight tests scheduled, potentially leading to a 30%-50% reduction in launch costs through the application of reusable technology [5][6] - The transition from expendable rockets to reusable launch vehicles is seen as a revolutionary change that will lower barriers to space access and enable new industries such as satellite internet and deep space exploration [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The first flight of the "Zhuque-3" rocket is scheduled for mid to late November 2025, emphasizing its reusable design aimed at enhancing lifespan and scalability [3] - A sea recovery system for reusable rockets is under construction in Hainan, expected to be operational by the end of 2026, providing public service for rocket recovery [3] Analysis and Judgment - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to be a high-potential area in the coming months, with the successful first flight of reusable rockets expected to address the major cost barrier in the industry [4] Reusable Rocket Development - 2025 is marked as the "verification year" for reusable technology in China, with several companies planning their first flights [5] - The successful implementation of reusable technology could lead to a significant reduction in launch costs, enhancing the competitiveness of the sector [5] Key Players and Developments - Blue Arrow Aerospace is highlighted as a leading private rocket manufacturer in China, focusing on a full industry chain from research and development to launch services [9] - The company has achieved significant milestones, including the successful testing of its rocket's propulsion system and plans for an IPO [10][11] Beneficiary Companies - Several companies are identified as beneficiaries of the commercial aerospace boom, including: - Putian Technology, involved in AI computing projects in space [12] - Holoway, a key player in satellite measurement technology [12] - Guoke Military Industry, transitioning to a comprehensive rocket engine manufacturer [14] - Shanghai Huanxun, involved in satellite communication systems [14] - Zhenray Technology, a supplier of core chips for satellite internet [15]

Core Insights - The construction of a maritime recovery system for reusable rockets in Hainan is set to begin, with an expected delivery by the end of 2026, providing a public service platform for China's commercial rockets [1] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque-3" rocket has successfully completed the first phase of its maiden flight, aiming to challenge rocket recovery technology with a planned launch in 2025 [1] - China is gradually closing the gap in reusable launch technology with global leaders, moving towards autonomous and sustainable space capabilities [1] Group 1: Historical Context - The concept of rocket recovery is not new, with the first successful vertical landing demonstration by McDonnell Douglas's DC-X in 1993, which proved the technical feasibility of returning rockets [1] - The DC-X project, despite its initial success, was abandoned by NASA in 1996 due to budget constraints and a lack of market demand for cost-saving measures at the time [4][5] - The resurgence of interest in rocket recovery coincided with the rise of commercial spaceflight, leading to renewed focus on this technology [5] Group 2: SpaceX's Role - Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with the goal of reducing launch costs and achieving rocket reusability, which he deemed essential for making Mars exploration feasible [7] - SpaceX faced numerous challenges in its early attempts at rocket recovery, but achieved a significant milestone in December 2015 with the first successful landing of a Falcon 9 rocket [7][8] - The company has since established a routine of reusing rockets, significantly lowering launch costs from an industry average of $60 million to around $15 million [8] Group 3: Global Landscape - Currently, SpaceX is the only company with a fully operational reusable rocket system, while other players like Blue Origin and various Chinese companies are in different stages of development [10][11] - The global landscape shows a clear division, with the U.S. leading in operational capabilities, while China is rapidly advancing with multiple companies working on reusable technology [11][12] - Other countries, including those in Europe, Russia, Japan, and India, are lagging behind in the development of reusable rocket technology [11][12] Group 4: Technical Challenges - Rocket recovery involves overcoming significant technical challenges, including precise guidance, control, deceleration, and resistance to disturbances during descent [20][21][22][23] - The integration of advanced technologies in materials, propulsion, control systems, and algorithms is crucial for achieving successful rocket recovery [25][26][27] Group 5: China's Commercial Space Race - China is witnessing a competitive race among several private companies to develop reusable rocket technology, with notable players like Blue Arrow Aerospace and others aiming for key technology validations by 2025 [29][30] - The success of these companies will not only depend on technological advancements but also on establishing a sustainable commercial model for frequent launches [30][31] - The ongoing developments signify a shift in China's commercial space sector from merely building rockets to achieving reusable capabilities [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - Gaohua Technology emphasizes the importance of real-time monitoring of core parameters such as vibration, temperature, pressure, liquid level, and posture during the launch, recovery, and reuse of rockets to ensure stability and reliability [1] Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The advancement of reusable rocket technology is expected to optimize launch costs [1] - The improvements in technology will promote the growth of the commercial space industry [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Commercial Space Industry Industry Overview - The commercial space industry in China is experiencing rapid development, particularly in satellite internet and constellation networking, with significant advancements in launch capabilities and infrastructure [3][4][9] - Major commercial rocket companies like iSpace and Blue Arrow are progressing quickly, with liquid large-thrust rockets being viewed as the optimal solution for reducing transportation costs [1][4] Key Developments - China aims to complete manned lunar missions by 2030 and is actively exploring asteroid mining, which could lead to breakthroughs in near-Earth tourism and resource development [1][6] - The development of sea launch technology is maturing, with successful satellite internet test launches conducted off the coast of Guangdong [7] - The integration of communication, navigation, and remote sensing functions into single satellites is seen as a future direction, enhancing service capabilities and reducing costs [1][13][17] Cost and Capacity Analysis - Domestic commercial rockets have a higher cost compared to SpaceX, with the real cost of domestic rockets around 50,000 RMB per kilogram, while SpaceX's Falcon 9 has reduced its cost to below $1,000 per kilogram [18] - The current capacity of domestic launch sites is limited, with a need to increase the number of launch sites and rocket production capabilities to meet demand [19][20] Technological Challenges - The main challenges in rocket technology development include reducing costs and improving reusability, with significant hurdles in engine design and attitude control technology [11][26] - The rocket manufacturing industry is concentrated in the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology and the China Academy of Aerospace Propulsion Technology, with engine costs accounting for nearly half of the total manufacturing costs [2][26] Future Trends - The trend towards integrated communication, navigation, and remote sensing is expected to dominate future developments, with companies focusing on achieving this integration to enhance service capabilities [17][18] - The commercial satellite sector is seeing interest from companies like Starlink and others, with a focus on expanding overseas markets for satellite data [12] Investment Opportunities - Investment should focus on companies that can successfully implement integrated technology and demonstrate core competitiveness, as they are likely to play significant roles in the future market [17] - The potential for breakthroughs in asteroid mining and lunar missions presents significant investment opportunities in the commercial space sector [6] Conclusion - The commercial space industry in China is poised for significant growth, driven by advancements in technology, infrastructure, and ambitious national goals. However, challenges remain in cost management, capacity expansion, and technological development that need to be addressed to fully realize this potential [1][20][29]

Core Insights - The recent announcement from the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the strategic elevation of the aerospace industry, marking the first time "Aerospace Power" is listed alongside other national strengths [1] - Analysts predict a new round of valuation restructuring in the commercial aerospace sector as the 14th Five-Year Plan approaches, with significant policy support expected [2] Policy and Market Dynamics - The government has outlined plans to foster new growth engines, including commercial aerospace, with a focus on large-scale application demonstrations and the development of emerging industries [2] - Over twenty provinces and cities have integrated commercial aerospace into their long-term development plans, indicating a strong commitment to the sector's growth [2] Industry Growth and Infrastructure - The aerospace industry is transitioning from an exploratory phase to a growth phase, with increased policy support and resource allocation expected [3] - China's complete industrial system and market potential position it well for significant advancements in commercial aerospace, with market size projections reaching trillions [3] Launch Activity and Technological Advancements - China is set to complete 68 orbital launches in 2024, with a notable increase in satellite deployment frequency [4] - Recent successful launches include the completion of the first low Earth orbit satellite constellation, demonstrating China's capabilities in satellite networking [4] Capital Market Engagement - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing heightened interest from investors, with several companies completing new financing rounds and initiating IPO preparations [7] - A total of eight commercial aerospace companies are currently in the IPO counseling process, reflecting a critical transition from technology validation to commercial operations [7]

Core Insights - The aerospace industry is rapidly evolving, with significant focus on investment strategies, technological breakthroughs, and the gap between domestic and international developments [1] - SpaceX has emerged as a global benchmark, showcasing a complex development journey from early challenges to the successful implementation of reusable rocket technology, which has drastically reduced costs and increased market share [1][3] - The discussion includes various segments such as manned and unmanned drones, hypersonic rockets, reusable launch vehicles, cargo drones, and unmanned ships, highlighting the investment landscape in these areas [1][2] Investment Landscape - Key investments in the aerospace sector include companies like EHang (NASDAQ: EH) and Lingkong Tianxing, focusing on unmanned aerial vehicles and hypersonic rocket development [2] - The cargo drone sector is represented by companies like White Whale Airlines, which is set to launch the world's largest cargo drone [2] - The domestic landscape includes significant support from the government for commercial aerospace development, with state-owned enterprises actively pursuing reusable rocket technology [6][9] SpaceX Development Journey - SpaceX's business model consists of two main segments: launch services and communications, with a notable shift towards the latter following the maturation of reusable technology [3][4] - The company faced early financial struggles, nearly going bankrupt before securing a $20 million investment from Peter Thiel, which allowed it to successfully launch its first rocket [3][4] - Since 2015, SpaceX has significantly increased its launch frequency, projecting 134 launches in 2024, a dramatic rise from just 4 in 2015 [4][6] Cost Structure and Market Impact - The introduction of reusable technology has transformed the economic model of the rocket industry, allowing SpaceX to reduce launch costs significantly [5][6] - The Falcon 9 rocket's original cost was approximately $60 million, with the potential to recover up to 80% of costs through reusability, leading to a reduction in per-launch costs to below $3,000 per kilogram [5][6] - SpaceX currently holds over 90% of the market share for payloads sent to space, far exceeding China's 8% [6] Domestic Developments - China's rocket development has a long history, with the Long March series being the backbone of its space program, but it has yet to achieve the same level of cost efficiency as SpaceX [9][10] - The domestic industry is beginning to recognize the importance of reusable technology, with several companies now pursuing this avenue after years of skepticism [8][9] - Upcoming milestones include the planned launches of reusable liquid rockets by Blue Arrow Aerospace and Deep Blue Aerospace, which could mark significant advancements in China's commercial space capabilities [11][12] Deep Blue Aerospace's Progress - Deep Blue Aerospace is focusing on the development of its "Xingyun" series rockets, with plans for a successful launch and recovery by early next year [13][14] - The company aims to enhance its engine capabilities significantly, with the Xingyun II rocket expected to achieve a thrust increase from 20 tons to 130 tons by 2027 [14][17] - Deep Blue Aerospace is adopting a vertical integration strategy, similar to SpaceX, to enhance its engine development and overall production capabilities [17][18] Future Industry Trends - The next few years are critical for the Chinese commercial space sector, with expectations for increased launch frequency and advancements in recovery technology [19][20] - By 2030, the demand for satellite launches is projected to increase dramatically, necessitating a robust commercial rocket industry to meet these needs [21][22] - The successful implementation of reusable technology will be pivotal for companies to achieve competitive pricing and reliability in the market [28][29]

Core Insights - The commercial launch vehicle industry in China is rapidly evolving, driven by government policies and increasing market demand for satellite launches, particularly with the deployment of low Earth orbit communication constellations like "Thousand Sails Constellation" and "National Grid Constellation" [1][11] - By 2025, the demand for commercial satellite launches in China is expected to approach 1,000 satellites, a tenfold increase from 2024, highlighting a significant gap between demand and current launch capacity [1][13] - The industry is characterized by a competitive landscape with high qualification barriers, dominated by state-owned enterprises like China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, alongside a growing number of private companies [1][15] Industry Overview - Commercial launch vehicles are designed to provide launch services for satellites and spacecraft with a focus on market profitability [1][2] - The industry has seen significant policy support from the government, establishing a comprehensive framework for technology development, manufacturing, and launch services [1][7] Policy Analysis - Recent policies have aimed at promoting the commercial launch vehicle sector as a key infrastructure for advancing satellite internet and deep space exploration [1][7][8] - Local governments in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong have introduced differentiated support measures to foster industry growth, creating a collaborative policy environment [1][8] Industry Chain - The commercial launch vehicle industry chain includes upstream manufacturing and satellite development, midstream launch services, and downstream application markets [1][8] Current Development Status - The commercial space industry in China has experienced rapid growth, with 68 launch missions completed in 2024, of which 43 were commercial launches, accounting for 63.2% of total launches [1][11] - The private sector has begun to establish a foothold, with companies like Galaxy Space and Blue Arrow Aerospace achieving significant milestones in launch capabilities [1][11] Competitive Landscape - The competitive structure of the commercial launch vehicle industry is tiered, with state-owned enterprises leading the first tier and a select group of private companies forming the second tier [1][15] - The first tier includes major players with extensive experience and resources, while the second tier consists of agile private firms focusing on small to medium satellite launches [1][15] Future Trends - The industry is expected to focus on low-cost, high-frequency, and high-capacity launches, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology [1][16] - The establishment of new launch facilities, such as the Hainan commercial launch site, will support increased launch frequency and capacity [1][17] - The market is anticipated to expand beyond satellite launches to include applications in space tourism, in-orbit services, and deep space exploration [1][19]

Group 1 - The Guangdong Provincial Government has issued policies to promote high-quality development in commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2028, focusing on encouraging enterprises to develop core technologies in reusable liquid rocket engines [1] - The provincial government will provide up to 50% matching funding support for national major science and technology projects that meet specific conditions, and will implement a 100% pre-tax deduction policy for corporate R&D expenditures [1] - Liquid fuel rockets are becoming the mainstream choice for the next generation of reusable rockets due to their adjustable thrust, strong restart capability, and high system adaptability [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that the current insufficient rocket capacity in China is a core bottleneck for low Earth orbit satellite networking, and developing reusable rockets and liquid fuel technologies is key to enhancing capacity [1] - It is estimated that by 2030, an average of 64 rockets per year will be needed to meet the planned networking requirements, with the rocket market expected to reach a scale of 100 billion by 2030 [1] - CITIC Securities points out that several large-capacity private liquid rockets, such as Zhuque-3 from Blue Arrow Aerospace and Tianlong-3 from Tianbing Technology, are set to make their maiden flights in the second half of 2025, marking a breakthrough in the commercialization of private liquid rockets [1] Group 3 - Srey New Materials has initiated the construction of a project for the industrialization of materials, parts, and components for liquid rocket engine thrust chambers [2] - Taisheng Wind Power's rocket storage tank is a key pressure vessel used for storing liquid rocket propellants, including fuel and oxidizers, and is one of the core components of launch vehicles [2]