据沈阳辉山经济技术开发区管委会相关负责人李战宇介绍，民航业约99%的碳排放来自航空飞行活动的 航油消耗，发展可持续航空燃料是落实国家"双碳"战略部署、全面实现绿色转型的现实路径。可持续航 空燃料生产装备制造，也将为推动区域高端装备产业补链、延链、强链提供有力支撑。 责编：张晓楠 审核：刘立纲 本报讯 记者陶阳报道 记者11月18日获悉，中管应用科学技术研究（辽宁）有限公司与沈阳辉山经济技 术开发区管委会签约，可持续航空燃料生产装备制造项目正式落户沈阳。项目建成后，制造的等离子裂 解装备能满足每年100万吨可持续航空燃料的生产需求。 可持续航空燃料的原料来源主要是废弃油脂、农林废弃物等，可比传统航油减少80%的碳排放。预计到 2050年，我国可持续航空燃料年消费量为2500万至3000万吨，市场前景广阔。中管应用科学技术研究 （辽宁）有限公司与国内外科研机构合作，设计研发的等离子裂解装备是相关领域（生物质气化+FT合 成）世界首台可规模化生产可持续航空燃料的装备。 据悉，等离子裂解炉在处理过程中把有机物直接合成一氧化碳和氢气等清洁能源，无机物部分可用于建 筑材料或金属提纯，在处理过程中没有中间物质形成，不会产生 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, but it emphasizes the potential for significant growth and development in the electric SAF sector, particularly in China [4][5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry faces increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions, with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) targeting net-zero emissions by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is identified as a key solution to achieve this goal [4][7]. - Electric SAF, produced from renewable electricity, water, and captured CO2, is seen as a necessary complement to biomass SAF due to its higher reduction potential and theoretical production capacity [4][9]. - The report highlights that while electric SAF has a promising future, it currently faces high production costs, limiting its commercial viability in the short term [12][39]. - China is positioned to play a significant role in the global electric SAF market due to its advanced renewable energy capabilities and potential for cost-effective production [5][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Research Background and Overview of SAF Development - The aviation sector's carbon emissions have been growing rapidly, necessitating urgent action for reduction. SAF is viewed as the most effective means for the aviation industry's green transition [4][7]. - Electric SAF is distinguished from biomass SAF by its raw materials and production processes, offering greater sustainability and long-term scalability [33]. 2. Global Development Status of Electric SAF - The global SAF market is experiencing rapid growth, with production expected to reach 1.25 billion liters (approximately 1 million tons) in 2024, doubling from 2023 [11]. - Over 40 airlines have committed to using SAF, with projections of approximately 14 million tons of SAF usage by 2030 [11]. - Electric SAF is still in the early stages of commercialization, primarily represented by demonstration plants and small-scale projects [12]. 3. Technical Route Analysis of Electric SAF - Electric SAF technology can be categorized into three main modules: green hydrogen production, CO2 capture, and liquid fuel synthesis. The main synthesis pathways include Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FT) and methanol-to-jet (MtJ) [44]. - The report notes that while biomass SAF currently dominates the market, electric SAF is expected to overcome existing challenges and become a major production technology by 2035 [39]. 4. Production Potential Analysis of Major Countries - The report evaluates the production potential and cost structure of electric SAF in China, the US, Germany, and Saudi Arabia, highlighting China's advantages in renewable energy and green hydrogen production [5][20]. - It emphasizes the need for clear long-term development goals and supportive policies to foster the electric SAF industry in China [5]. 5. Future Global Market Development Trends - The report predicts that by 2035, electric SAF will play a crucial role in the global SAF supply and demand landscape, with China emerging as a key player [5][20]. 6. Key Conclusions - Electric SAF has greater decarbonization potential but faces high costs until 2035, making it difficult to compete effectively with biomass SAF in the short term [5][39]. - The development of electric SAF is not only vital for the aviation industry's energy efficiency and emissions reduction but also serves as a new driver for economic growth and job creation in China [5].

Summary of the Conference Call on Jiaao Environmental Protection Industry Overview - **Industry**: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - **Company**: Jiaao Environmental Protection Key Points and Arguments Strategic Transformation and Production Capacity - Jiaao Environmental Protection has strategically transformed its business towards the production of bio-jet fuel (SAF) with the Lianyungang Jiaao Phase I project now fully operational, expected to produce 370,000 tons annually, and has achieved bulk export sales, significantly improving revenue and profit [2][3] Market Demand and Growth Projections - The global demand for bio-jet fuel is projected to see substantial growth starting in 2025, with many countries setting blending ratio targets. It is expected that demand will exceed 6 million tons in 2025 and 18 million tons by 2030, indicating a broad market outlook [2][4] Financial Performance Highlights - Jiaao Environmental Protection reported significant revenue growth in the first three quarters, with a quarterly revenue increase of over 900 million yuan, and a turnaround to profitability in Q3 with earnings of 50 million yuan. The SAF price has surged from an average of 13,000 yuan/ton in the first half to around 20,000 yuan/ton, expanding profit margins [2][5] Cost Control and Profit Margin Expectations - The production of one ton of bio-jet fuel requires approximately 1.43 tons of waste oil, with a projected cost of around 13,000 yuan per ton. However, through centralized procurement and long-term contracts, costs could potentially be reduced to 12,000 yuan or lower. With a conservative selling price of 16,000 yuan/ton, the gross profit per ton could reach 3,000 to 4,000 yuan [2][6] Policy Support and Global Trends - Various countries have set blending ratio targets to promote bio-jet fuel development, with the EU aiming for a 6% blending ratio by 2030, and countries like Finland, Sweden, and Norway targeting 30%. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that 65% of the aviation industry's net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050 will be achieved through SAF [2][7] Challenges and Opportunities in Production - Globally, many companies are advancing bio-jet fuel projects, with an expected production capacity of over 17 million tons by 2030. However, uncertainties remain regarding raw material supply, particularly for agricultural products and waste oils. In China, while specific blending ratio requirements have not been set, many airlines are initiating pilot projects for bio-jet fuel [2][8][9] Regional Market Insights - The EU has implemented strict targets to promote bio-jet fuel, with a projected consumption of 900,000 tons by 2025 and 2.7 million tons by 2030. The UK has set ambitious targets as well, with a consumption estimate of over 1.2 million tons by 2030, indicating a significant import gap [2][10][11] Competitive Landscape for Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies like Jiaao Environmental Protection have obtained certifications and export licenses, positioning them competitively in the international market. With ongoing policy support and expanding pilot applications, these companies are expected to enhance their international competitiveness and seize opportunities from the growing global SAF demand [2][12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 104.79 CNY as of November 11 [1]. Core Views - The company is transitioning towards sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, which is expected to be a key growth driver for future revenues and profits. The SAF project in Lianyungang is projected to significantly enhance the company's profitability and market position [8][9][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Jiaao Environmental Protection, is a leading producer of environmentally friendly plasticizers and has recently launched SAF products. It has established a complete industrial chain through strategic acquisitions [12][13]. - The Lianyungang SAF project aims to produce 500,000 tons of biomass energy annually, with the first batch of SAF products expected to be exported in 2025 [8][12][33]. Industry Perspective - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the implementation of SAF blending policies across multiple countries, including the EU, UK, and Indonesia, which will drive demand for SAF [9][37]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in SAF demand, with projections indicating that by 2030, China's domestic demand for SAF could reach 2.81 million tons, supported by various national policies [9][37][40]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to generate revenues of 42.23 billion CNY, 64.96 billion CNY, and 97.23 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.89 billion CNY, 3.91 billion CNY, and 6.98 billion CNY [9][10]. - The SAF project is projected to yield a net profit of approximately 6.1 billion CNY at full capacity, with significant growth potential as the company expands its production capabilities [34][35].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the quarter with $108 million in cash and cash equivalents, with combined operating revenue, interest, and investment income of $43.6 million, marking a significant increase from approximately $2 million in the same quarter last year [11][12] - The loss from operations was $3.7 million, while non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was a positive $6.6 million, an improvement of approximately $23 million from last year's negative $16.7 million [11][12] - Gevo North Dakota generated income from operations of $12.3 million and a positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $17.8 million [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gevo North Dakota has become a core earnings engine, demonstrating reliable energy production and efficient carbon capture, contributing significantly to the company's financial performance [12] - Gevo R&G generated income from operations of $0.5 million and positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully sold all of its 2025 Section 45(z) clean fuel production credits for a total of $52 million, with net proceeds of approximately $29 million received so far [12][13] - The company is expanding its carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credit sales, with expectations to grow from $1 million in Q2 to $3-$5 million by the end of 2025 [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to monetize carbon as a key initiative, viewing it as an important co-product that can unlock economics for growth products like jet fuel [5][8] - Plans to build a 30 million-gallon jet fuel plant (ATJ30) at Gevo North Dakota are underway, with expected adjusted EBITDA uplift of about $150 million from this addition [9][27] - The company is focusing on incremental expansions and optimizing existing operations before pursuing larger capital projects [8][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the business environment in North Dakota, highlighting its pro-agriculture and pro-energy stance, which aligns well with the company's operations [5] - The management team believes that the integration of ethanol production and carbon sequestration will lead to better economics and carbon scores for jet fuel production [29] - The company anticipates steady improvement in cash generation and financial flexibility, with a credible pathway to break-even operating cash flow [15] Other Important Information - The company has implemented Verity, a digital carbon tracking and verification platform, at its Gevo North Dakota facility, which is expected to enhance transparency and efficiency in carbon accounting [20][22] - A strategic partnership with Frontier Infrastructure Holdings aims to offer integrated carbon management solutions for ethanol producers [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the incremental capital and steps required to optimize your operation and a reasonable timeline to achieve $110 million of EBITDA? - Management indicated that incremental capital is estimated at around $15 million, focusing on debottlenecking the ethanol plant and optimizing energy use [33][34] Question: Can you elaborate on the DOE loan extension and how it increases the likelihood of DOE financing? - Management noted that the shift of the loan guarantee to North Dakota reflects the project's attractiveness due to existing profitable operations and reduced financing needs [36][38] Question: What are the EBITDA drivers for next year? - Management highlighted that improvements in carbon intensity scores and operational efficiencies will be key drivers, with a focus on maximizing carbon value [40][43] Question: How should we project the incremental CI improvement over the next quarters? - Management explained that the CI score is expected to drop due to provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will enhance credit generation [71][74] Question: Can you update on conversations with potential customers for carbon sequestration services? - Management confirmed ongoing discussions with companies interested in co-locating to utilize the sequestration capacity, which could enhance profitability [65][66]

Core Viewpoint - Honeywell is actively progressing with its plan to spin off its aerospace business, aiming to establish an independent publicly listed aerospace company by the second half of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Business Spin-off - The aerospace technology group will continue to operate under Honeywell until the completion of the spin-off, which is on track for the second half of 2026 [1][2] - The independent aerospace entity is expected to become one of the largest independent aerospace suppliers, leveraging its technological and system advantages to enhance future aviation through increased electrification and autonomy [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Safety Technology - Honeywell showcased its new ground warning software (SURF-A) at the expo, which is anticipated to receive certification and enter the market next year [2] - The software aims to enhance flight safety by providing early warnings to pilots about runway incursion risks, allowing them to take corrective actions to avoid potential collisions [2] Group 3: Sustainable Aviation Fuel - Honeywell is pursuing multiple pathways for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) development, including converting biomass like straw and corn into ethanol for aviation fuel and a methanol route using green hydrogen [4] - A partnership has been established with a company in Inner Mongolia to create a project with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of methanol-based sustainable aviation fuel [4] Group 4: Local Market Expansion - Honeywell is actively collaborating with local airlines in China to advance joint certification efforts for aircraft models like Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 [3] - The company has a long history of involvement in China's aviation sector, contributing to key projects such as the C909 and C919 aircraft, providing advanced technology solutions and services [6] - Recent agreements with China Eastern Airlines and China Aviation Materials have been made to enhance local service capabilities and explore further cooperation in material procurement and distribution [6]

Core Insights - The A-share biodiesel sector experienced a significant surge, driven by the strong debut of Fengbei Bio on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and increasing global support for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) procurement and application [1] Industry Overview - Fengbei Bio, a high-tech enterprise in waste resource utilization, focuses on producing resource-based products from waste oils. The company has established a stable partnership with Haineng Energy, which is expected to benefit from the rising demand for industrial-grade blended oils due to the growth of the SAF and biodiesel industries [2] - Haineng Energy has been deeply involved in the biodiesel sector for years, aiming to become a leading global operator in green energy and chemical products. The company is enhancing its raw material supply system and diversifying its sources to ensure stable procurement and cost control [2] Market Demand - According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global biodiesel consumption is projected to grow from approximately 42.42 million tons in 2023 to 59.93 million tons by 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7.16%. Both Fengbei Bio and Haineng Energy are positioned to benefit from this increasing demand [3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The global push for bioenergy is gaining momentum, with applications expanding from ground transportation to aviation and marine fuels. New regulations in Singapore mandate that all departing flights must use at least 1% SAF by 2026, increasing to 3-5% by 2030, indicating significant progress in decarbonizing transportation [4] - The European market is also a key focus, with the EU set to implement large-scale SAF blending mandates starting in 2025. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will enforce carbon offset responsibilities by 2027, creating substantial market opportunities for SAF [4] Company Developments - Haineng Energy has received necessary certifications for SAF and has begun supplying its products to domestic clients, including China National Aviation Fuel Group. The company has also secured overseas orders, indicating a strong production schedule for the fourth quarter [5] - The shipping industry is increasingly adopting biodiesel as a certified fuel for reducing carbon emissions, with significant growth expected in the use of biofuels for shipping by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, potentially reaching 15-20 million tons annually [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 North Bund International Shipping Forum in Shanghai focuses on "collaboration to promote global shipping sustainable development," highlighting the integration of technology and innovation in the aviation and tourism sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum includes a main session on international green shipping, an international maritime forum, and an international aviation forum, along with several sub-forums and special activities [2]. - Nearly 300 representatives from the global aviation sector participated in discussions on new trends and paths for aviation development [2]. Group 2: Shanghai's Aviation Strategy - Shanghai aims to build a world-class, comprehensive international aviation hub, enhancing its global influence through innovation and technology [2]. - The city is positioned at a critical juncture for upgrading its international aviation hub capabilities amid significant global changes [2]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The Civil Aviation Administration of China emphasizes the importance of technology innovation in achieving a smart and sustainable aviation sector [3]. - The "smart chain" initiative aims to connect technological elements, integrate industry ecosystems, and link global cooperation [3]. Group 4: New Business Models - The "Aviation + Business Travel and Cultural Exhibition" initiative aims to create a new service ecosystem, promoting innovative practices in the aviation and tourism sectors [4]. - China Eastern Airlines (CEA) and Shanghai Airport showcased their "Aviation + Culture and Tourism" innovations through immersive technology experiences [4]. Group 5: New Consumer Offerings - CEA launched the "China Pass Card," offering various exclusive benefits for inbound travelers, aiming to create a trillion-level inbound consumption ecosystem [5]. - The card includes discounts on CEA tickets, in-flight Wi-Fi, and free half-day tours for transit passengers [5]. Group 6: Flight Experience Enhancements - CEA introduced themed flights on nearly 400 routes to promote the forum's values and enhance passenger experience [6]. - The airline's new routes and network expansions aim to strengthen its position as a leading international carrier [6]. Group 7: Hub Development Metrics - In 2024, CEA is expected to handle 8.36 million international transfer passengers at Pudong Airport, accounting for 80.9% of total airport traffic [7]. - The airline's international transfer passenger numbers are projected to grow by 26.8% in the first half of 2025 [7]. Group 8: Collaborative Achievements - CEA and Shanghai Airport have worked together to establish Shanghai as China's largest aviation hub, with CEA being the domestic airline with the most international destinations [8]. - The focus on innovation and high-quality development is seen as essential for the future of the civil aviation industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights the ongoing development of domestic SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) capacity, emphasizing the critical role of upstream raw material supply, particularly waste cooking oil resources, and suggests focusing on companies like Shanhigh Environmental Energy and Jiaao Environmental Protection due to their strategic advantages in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: SAF Market Dynamics - The implementation of mandatory blending policies in multiple regions is driving significant growth in SAF demand, marking a pivotal year for market expansion [2]. - SAF is recognized as a key solution for the aviation industry's carbon reduction challenges, with the EU's blending policy set to increase from 2% in 2025 to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, leading to an expected demand increase of approximately 130,000 tons in 2025 [2]. - China's SAF demand is projected to reach about 2.49 million tons by 2030 if the blending ratio aligns with IATA recommendations, indicating a reliance on exports to manage production capacity [2]. Group 2: Raw Material Supply and Industry Leaders - The supply of used cooking oil (UCO) is limited due to stable population and consumption patterns in China, making it a scarce resource for SAF production [3]. - Shanhigh Environmental Energy is positioned as a leader in the UCO industry, with plans to increase its processing capacity from 5,660 tons per day to between 8,000 and 10,000 tons per day within three years [3]. - The company has demonstrated operational efficiency improvements, with a projected capacity utilization rate of 79.1% in 2024 and a significant increase in net profit driven by SAF demand [3]. Group 3: Industry Capacity and Performance - China leads globally in SAF production capacity, with an estimated total capacity of around 1.05 million tons per year, accounting for approximately 50% of the global total [4]. - Jiaao Environmental Protection is at the forefront of the industry, with a current operational capacity of 500,000 tons per year and plans for an additional 500,000 tons, alongside securing export licenses [4]. - The company has seen substantial revenue growth, with a 78% increase in revenue in Q2 and a return to profitability in Q3 due to rising SAF prices and increased production [4].

Group 1 - The 2025 North Bund International Aviation Forum was held in Shanghai, focusing on innovation and technology in the global aviation landscape, with nearly 300 representatives from the aviation sector attending [1][2] - China Eastern Airlines announced the launch of 23 new medium and long-haul international routes since 2024, connecting 21 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and 36 destinations [2] - By the end of this year, China Eastern Airlines will open a new route from Shanghai to New Zealand and Argentina, positioning itself as the leading airline in terms of international destinations in China [2] Group 2 - The 2025 China Transportation Airport Development Index, released by the China Civil Airports Association, scored 113.40, a 13.4% increase from the 2019 baseline, marking a historical high [2] - The index indicates comprehensive improvements in safety, accessibility, convenience, service, sustainability, and contribution across six dimensions for Chinese transportation airports [2] - The report highlights three major trends: accelerated digital transformation, systematic promotion of green development, and deepening collaborative frameworks within the aviation sector [2]